Download Climate Change, Energy, and Texas

Climate Change, Energy, and
Texas
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Why we are focused on
decarbonizing the
electric grid?
A quick look at the science of
climate change.
Coal? In Texas? The
role of coal on Texas
and U.S. climate
change pollution
Responsibility: The
clean energy future of
Texas
1
2011: 86.8 F,
4.05 inches rain
Who began the concern that the burning of
fossil fuels and the rising levels of CO2 in the
atmosphere might affect the climate?
(a)Al Gore - 1995
(b)Robert Goddard – 1940
(c)Albert Einstein - 1930
(d)Charles Darwin - 1870
Arvid Högbom
Swedish
Chemist
1857-1940
Högbom
was the first
scientist to realize
that coal
combustion could
significantly
increase the
amount of CO2 in
the air
Joseph Fourier
French
Mathematician
1768-1830
Discovered
through
mathematical
calculations that
the earth must be
heated with
something more
than the visible
light from the sun.
Sealing Off the Ice
Accumulation Rates
Greenland = 0.5 m/yr
Antarctica = 0.05 m/yr
Ice Core Recovery
National Ice Core
Laboratory (NICL)
Core
Processing
Line
Carbon Dioxide
(ppmv)
350
Last Interglacial
Last Ice Age
300
250
200
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Thousands of Years Before Present
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are
mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in
more than half a million years.
Ice ages
are not
random.
They are
'forced'
(by
earth’s
orbital
clock….
changes
in the
sunlight
received).
CO2: where we are today because of last
200 years
Carbon Dioxide
(ppmv)
350
Last Interglacial
Last Ice Age
300
250
200
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Thousands of Years Before Present
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are
mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in
more than half a million years.
Ice ages
are not
random.
They are
'forced'
(by
earth’s
orbital
clock….
changes
in the
sunlight
received).
Svante Arrhenius
1896: Calculated what would
happen if atmospheric CO2
changed by 50%.
9 degrees F change in
temperature
Gilbert Plass
Canadian Physicist - 1956
Lockheed
Worked on heat(IR)-seeking missiles
spare time: access to one of the first
digital computers
– confirmed Arrhenius was right –
CO2 absorbs enough IR that planet is
going to warm because of emissions
The Drought: We are doing this
to ourselves, Texas
Change in Precipitation Because of Climate Change by Year 2100.
Source: USGCRP 2009
The Roll of Coal Power Plants
Texas: Driving the Economy...of Wyoming
$1.85 billion leaving Texas annually to pay for imported coal
Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists
Texas: Driving the Economy..of Wyoming
$71 per person per
year from Texans for
Wyoming coal
Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists
National average is $18 per person / year
Texas spending at $6 per person / year
Texas: top on coal, near bottom on conservation
The Economics of The Carbon Rule
• Texans are paying for carbon emissions and climate change today and
reducing emissions will save Texas money and help drive the economy.
• Texans today are spending $71 per capita and $284 per family of 4 annually
for Wyoming coal. Approx. $1.8 billion per year in lost economic opportunity.
• Large and growing federal taxpayer exposures, per year (2012):
– $20B Congressional Disaster Appropriations
– $10B National Flood Insurance Program
– $4B to 20B Federal Crop Insurance Program
• $300 per capita from every Texan for 2012 federal weather/climate disaster
payments
• Climate and weather disasters in 2012 cost the American economy more than
$100 billion.
• CPP climate & health benefits worth an estimated $55-$93 billion per yr in
2030. This includes avoiding 2,700-6,600 premature deaths & 140,000 150,000 asthma attacks in children
• Outweighs the annual CPP compliance costs of $7.3 billion to $8.8 billion in
2030.
Texas: Slowly Getting Worse
Total CO2 via statewide total from Clean Air Markets 2013 annual data;
Power MWh data via ERCOT.
Texas: Largest Emitter in the Country
Texas: Largest Emitter in the Country
167 plants defeated (89,830 MW)
Source: Sierra Club New Coal tracker, April 14th 2012
New coal projects defeated.
175 plants defeated (95,000 MW)
Source: Sierra Club New Coal tracker, April 14th 2012
Announced retirements 2010 – May 2013
•
•
•
Stats to Date:
413 units
145 whole plants
54,665 MW
•
•
258 million MWh/yr
209 million tons CO2/yr
Habitat Loss
Habitat Loss
Coal’s share is plummeting.
54%
52%
Coal share of generation
53%
52%
53%
53%
52%
52%
52%
52%
51%
52%
51%
51%
50%
51%
50%
50%
50%
49%
49%
48%
48%
46%
45%
44%
44%
42%
42%
40%
38%
36%
35.9%
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly. February 2012. Released April 30, 2012.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short Term Energy Outlook. Released May 8, 2012
Q1 2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
34%
Why we are focused on
decarbonizing the
electric grid?
A quick look at the science of
climate change.
Coal? In Texas? The
role of coal on Texas
and U.S. climate
change pollution
Responsibility: The
clean energy future of
Texas
36
Responsibility
Who created this problem?
Who did this? Who is
responsible for the increase
in CO2 from 280 to 400
China and
India?
Who created this problem?
source: U.S. Dept of Energy – CDIAC – Oak Ridge
National Laboratory; Global Carbon Project
Who created this problem? A closer look.
Who should lead the world?
Fair play
The citizens of the industrialized Democracies
are responsible for much more carbon pollution
per person than anyone in China or India .
Responsibility to Clean Up Our Messes
Responsibility to Clean Up Our Messes
Responsibility to Lead the World
1.
2.
3.
4.
Climate change is real
Texas leads in carbon pollution
Coal power plants are a huge source
The drought will become the new
normal for our kids and grandkids
5. I can use your help
Thanks.
ERCOT Texas
Electricity
Generation by
Fuel Source
Accelerate what is
already happening by
creating market space
Global Efforts
World’s
CoalReserve
ReserveHolders
holders
World’sTop
Top Coal
Gulf Export
Export Terminals
Terminals
Gulf
United Bulk Terminal, Louisiana
UnitedCoal
BulkExport
Terminal
Louisiana
Facility