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VIEWPOINT November 2016 AUTHORS Mohit Mittal Managing Director Portfolio Manager Rick Chan Executive Vice President Portfolio Manager Formosa Bonds: Looking at the Options Formosa bonds are growing in popularity. Issued in Taiwan but denominated in currencies other than the New Taiwan dollar, the bonds have become an attractive funding choice for many types of overseas issuers recently.1 And Taiwanese life insurance companies, facing low local yields and high liabilities from legacy products, have been investing in the bonds to meet their need for yield. Formosa bonds seem to be a good fit for Taiwan’s life insurers: The bonds must be rated triple-B or higher, and yields lately are topping 4%. Indeed, Taiwanese life insurers, with more than US$600 billion in assets, own about 80% of outstanding Formosa bonds. However, as yields have continued to trend lower and more bonds are called, the effective investment return and reinvestment rates for investors will be lower. Even at today’s yields, investors may not be adequately compensated for the call risk in the bonds. GROWTH IN FORMOSA BONDS Historically, large global financial institutions have been the dominant issuers in the approximately $80 billion Formosa bond market, particularly those with call features. In the last three years, however, nonfinancial corporations such as Apple, Électricité de France and Anheuser-Busch have used this market for funding purposes, along with large international issuers such as Qatar and National Bank of Abu Dhabi. Justin Tang Account Manager At the same time, recognizing the challenges life insurance companies are facing in the low interest rate environment, Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) increased the overseas investment limit for life insurers gradually over several years, and in June 2014 removed Formosa bonds from the ceiling altogether. So Formosa bonds are basically now counted as local investments. 2 With this change, the FSC aimed to spur foreign companies with branches in Taiwan to issue Formosa bonds on the Taipei Exchange and encourage financial innovation by Asian institutions in the region. November 2016 Viewpoint Comparing yields: Formosa bonds versus U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bonds and U.S. credit Security Yield 30-year zero coupon U.S. Treasury rate 2.65% Generic investment grade corporate spread 1.80% Callable option value 1.00% 30-year non-call 5 callable zero 5.40% VALUATION OF FORMOSA BONDS Formosa bond yields ~4.50% We believe Formosa bond terms are generally less favorable now for investors than for issuers. Even though the securities often have yields similar to or higher than corresponding debt with bullet maturities, most Formosa bonds (about $70 billion) are callable, and the call option is often undervalued, in our view. Value difference (between 30-year nc 5 callable zero and Formosa bond yields) ~0.90% Investment grade 30-year zerocoupon accreting callable bonds, the most common Formosa bond structure, typically have accretion yields north of 4% today, compared to 2.65% for equivalent U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bonds (see table). The higher yields on Formosa bonds should compensate the investor for both higher credit risk and call risk; however, a diversified investment grade bond portfolio without embedded calls often has a comparable yield to callable Formosa bonds. Thus, we believe Formosa bonds significantly undervalue (or even ignore) the call option, which can be worth almost as much as the credit component, by our calculations. Source: Bloomberg, based on PIMCO calculations as of 31 October 2016 Recently, Taiwanese regulators have contemplated pushing out the earliest call date for new Formosa issues to at least three years. This change seems likely since many older Formosa bonds with shorter call periods have recently been called and therefore have not provided enough duration to insurers’ portfolios. In the first nine months of 2016, 25 bonds totaling $6.8 billion were called, compared with $2 billion in 2015. Another $3 billion–$4 billion is expected to be called in the coming months. Looking further ahead, the introduction of a new international accounting standard in 2018, IFRS 9, could complicate investing in Formosa bonds because bonds with call options would not meet the “Solely Payments of Principal and Interest” test and would therefore be classified as fair value investments. WHAT ARE THE ALTERNATIVES TO FORMOSA BONDS? Even as spreads have tightened in the credit markets over the last few months, we find long maturity U.S. investment grade credit is still an attractive opportunity. Credit spreads remain wide relative to long-term averages, while fundamentals and technicals are very supportive. Currently, investors could build a portfolio of diversified U.S. investment grade corporate bonds with a potential yield above 4%. If an investor also sells a call option on the U.S. rates to match the payout profile of Formosa bonds at a cost of 75 basis points‒80 basis points (bps) per annum, the portfolio could potentially yield 5%, which is about 75 bps above the average Formosa bond yield. Additionally, a skilled active manager can aim to enhance return above the base yield of around 5% through potential alpha from credit selection and options management, with similar risks to those in Formosa bonds. November 2016 Viewpoint INVESTMENT TAKEAWAY In today’s low yield environment, Formosa bonds are here to stay as life insurers in Taiwan treat them as an effective way to deploy and reinvest large amounts of capital in a short time. However, investors with high concentrations in Formosa bonds and those who do not need the regulatory relief the bonds can offer may want to look at other investment choices, including diversified investment grade credit portfolios with similar yields and less onerous call features. Investors who need additional yield and can take additional risk may also want to consider derivatives-overlay strategies that replicate the callable features of Formosa bonds but at potentially better valuations. “Investors with high concentrations in Formosa bonds and those who do not need the regulatory relief the bonds can offer may want to look at other investment choices.” 3 Also known as international bonds in Taiwan. Some investors use a narrower definition that refers only to international bonds listed in Taipei and denominated in Chinese yuan. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Management risk is the risk that the investment techniques and risk analyses applied by PIMCO will not produce the desired results, and that certain policies or developments may affect the investment techniques available to PIMCO in connection with managing the strategy. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks, such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are suitable for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. 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