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INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION (IHR) ECOSYSTEM Climate Change: Key Issues and Challenges INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE OUTLINE 1. BACKGROUND 2. CC IMPACTS AND KEY CHALLENGES 3. RESPONSE MEASURES 4. GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE 5. FUTURE APPROACHES AND PROSPECTS 6. KEY QUESTIONS 2 IHR GEOGRAPHIC AREA Source: G. B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development 3 Indian Himalayan Region • 16.2% total geographic area of Country with 40 million population. • Accounts for one third of the forest cover of India • Rich in endemic species attributed to its geological, climatic and altitudinal variations – nearly 50% of the total flowering plants in India are located in the IHR, of which 30% are endemic • 17% area under permanent snow cover and 30 – 40% under seasonal snow cover • Annual run off Himalayan Rivers approx. 1, 600, 000 million m³- source of freshwater for irrigation, drinking and hydropower to local as well as downstream people 4 Issues of Mountain Environment • • • • Remoteness and isolation Long distance from market limits the livelihood options Prone to natural disasters Conflicts over natural resources INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND KEY CHALLENGES IN IHR • The resilience of IHR ecosystem is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land-use change, pollution, overexploitation of resources) INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE 6 CHANGE IN ANNUAL LINEAR SNOW COVER 1990-2001 This map of the change in annual linear snow cover from 1990 to 2001 shows a thick band (blue) across the Himalayas with decreases of at least 16 percent while a few smaller patches (red) experienced increases Source : DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 7 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR REGION • All of Asia is likely to warm (around 4 °C above baseline ) • Global warming and climate change is impacting IHR and the impact of CC on avg. occurs at a much higher rate than the rest of the Asia – the rate of temp. rise from 1991 to 2007 was 0.76°C per decade in the Himalayan region as compared to the global average of 0.14°C since 2000 – West Himalaya (WH) significant decrease no. cold days; WH and North East decrease in no cold nights pre-monsoon season • Extreme rainfalls as well as drought events are likely to increase. 8 SECTORAL IMPACTS & KEY CHALLENGES FORESTS & BIODIVERSITY • Provide a multitude of “goods and services” • Traditional crop-livestock mixed farming in the Himalaya, for example, is highly dependent on forests for fodder and manure prepared from forest leaf litter and livestock excreta • CC poses a risk to the uncertainty of these services, with a predicted large scale shifting in range and composition of forest biomes (e.g. upward shift in Himalayan Pine, affecting productivity and ecological health • Loss of biodiversity of Medicinal and aromatic plants which provide the traditional and alternative system of medicine in the region 9 SECTORAL IMPACTS& KEY CHALLENGES WATER SECURITY • Increase in temp. will reduce the amount of snowfall, reducing the water flow in snow-fed rivers during the summer months • 21% decrease glacierized area IHR, with glaciers less than 1 metre square retreating faster (WWF, 2010) • Uttarakhand, rainfed re-charge decreased 25% – 75% past 50yrs (Report of the Task Force, 2010) • During the monsoon period, excessive rainfall leading to more intense flooding and landslides • Affect agriculture production and livelihoods of both mountain communities as well 407 million people living in the Gangetic Basin 10 SECTORAL IMPACTS & KEY CHALLENGES FOOD SECURITY: • Traditional crops replaced by cash crops leading to loss agro biodiversity and increasing vulnerability to climatic and market changes • LUC lead to reduction of high altitude pastoral lands, reducing capacity to produce food on marginal lands • All four dimensions of food security are predicted to be affected by climate change: food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability • Increasing temperatures have resulted in a change in the agricultural zones and shift in the growing seasons, for example, decreasing yield in mid-altitude apple growing areas of HP, with cultivation shifting to higher altitudes 11 SECTORAL IMPACTS & KEY CHALLENGES Energy Security • IHR, the main source of energy at the household level is biomass, majority of which is provided by fuelwood, sourced from forests • Shortage of fuel wood and the high price of imported conventional fuels result in a situation of high energy vulnerability • Ecosystem based approach for energy security • Improved cook stoves for reducing BC and other non C02 gas emission 12 Table 3 Source of household energy in the IHR SOURCE COOKING ENERGY % TOTAL IHR HOUSEHOLDS Firewood 64.8 LPG 23.8 Kerosene 4.6 Cow dung cakes 3.6 Crop residue 2.1 Source: G-SHE, 2009 KEY CHALLENGES Community Vulnerability • Not everyone has same capacity to adapt to CC • Poor communities are more vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in highrisk areas as they tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies • Policies and programmes need to address such issues as • loss of livelihoods with changes in crop outputs, • provision of alternate livelihood options. 13 DRR - CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE DRR • Inhabitants of IHR are exposed to many natural hazards such as floods and flash floods, GLOF’s, landslides, and earthquakes. • At least 130 people were killed when flash floods triggered by torrential rains struck Leh, Ladakh on August 6, 2010 • Remoteness and isolation deprive mountain population from accessing essential information about climate risks. • Ecosystem based approach for DRR is of importance from the perspective of adaptation as well as for addressing the challenges of development and poverty alleviation 14 OPTIONS FOR CC ADAPTATION IN THE INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE 15 RESPONSE MEASURES GLOBAL NATIONAL • Agenda 21 • UNFCCC • Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves • NAPCC, 2008 • National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem under the NAPCC • Green India Mission • National Plan for Environment • Roundtable on Climate Change in Himalayas and several other Networks 16 RESPONSE MEASURES CONT.. Traditional Knowledge • Traditional societies over time have developed cultural wisdom to deal with nature and natural resources • The Apatani Tribe of AP has a sound traditional ecological knowledge of forest, land and water management which has assisted in the development of valley cultivation of rice. The wet rice is integrated with fish cultivation in terraces and with finer millet on the risers and regular water supply is maintained naturally with healthy forest cover, also managed by the community (G-SHE, 2009) 17 GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE • UN's climate science panel acknowledged that a grim prediction on the fate of Himalayan glaciers that featured in a benchmark report on global warming had been "poorly substantiated" and was a lapse in standards. • Lack and inadequacy of research efforts, complimented with the gaps in the data collected at the local level render the formulation of sciencebased policy interventions difficult. 18 WAY FORWARD • Science, policy and action to address the vulnerability of the mountain ecosystem and its social capital • Need to build equitable, long-term partnerships between local communities and research institutions to ensure this knowledge and traditional coping strategies are assessed, recorded and integrated into policy responses • Ecosystem goods and services that support ecological functions of the landscape and the livelihood requirements are to be appropriately accounted • An integrated and pragmatic approach is needed to identify multistakeholders and participatory processes for the selection, implementation and appraisal of adaptation strategies 19 WAY FORWARD • Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approach should be incorporated for sustainably managing, conserving and restoring ecosystems so that they continue to provide the services that allow people to adapt to climate change • Women in the rural mountain communities are key stake holders of the natural resources and therefore it is essential to assess their role and thus provide them with better facilities and policies that can help them to better adapt to the changing climate. • Requirement for regional cooperation to ensure a joint strategy that incorporates an integrated, time-bound approach to the issue of CC adaptation and supports regional knowledge sharing 20 KEY QUESTIONS • What are the additional potential impacts of CC in the IHR, both positive and negative? • Can the issues be addressed for the IHR in one common strategy or several i.e. Western and Eastern Himalaya? – If similar, can similar policy measures be applied? – If different, then how? • What are present and emerging approaches to deal with climate change in the IHR ecosystem, generating co-benefits of mitigation, adaptation and development (for ensuring food, DRR, livelihood, water, energy and social security of communities)? • What kinds of systems are required for effective execution of existing and future policies? – – – – 21 Institutional Mechanisms Financial Mechanisms R&D Role of key stakeholders (communities, private, government, global) RECOMMENDATIONS • REGIONAL COOPERATION • BETTER UNDERSTANING OF THE SCIENCE OF CC AT REGIONAL LEVEL – Models – Monitoring on ground – ID most vulnerable regions within Himalaya • BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION – Afforestation programmes – Linking Pas – Conservation of cultivars • STRENGTHENING OF HIMALAYAN CLIMATIC DATABASE – Micro-climatic level – Hydrological cycle 22 RECOMMENDATIONS CONT. • SCIENCE SUPPORTING COMMUNITIES FOR ON-GROUND ACTION • INVESTMENT AND CAPACITATION FOR COMMUNITY INNOVATION FOR ADAPTATION – Better understanding local experiences / strategies – Linking community to science – Learn from ‘failures’, not just ‘successes’ • COMMUNITY INCENTIVES INTEGRATED IN POLICY • CAPACITY BUILDING AND INVESTMENT FOR CULTIVATION NEW CROPS, SOIL&WATER CONSERVATION (LOCAL-LEVEL), 23 RECOMMENDATIONS CONT. • NEED FOR CROSS-SECTORAL PLANNING IN THE MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES • MOVE AWAY FROM ‘AREA CENTRIC APPROACH’ TO THE MANAGEMENT OF ECOSYSTEMS AND STRESS ON FUNCTIONALITY AS A YARD STICK FOR MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS • PROMOTE LOCAL ACTION BUT NEED TO HARMONIZE WITH NATIONAL POLICY / PROGRAMMES / IMPERATIVES • DISTINCTION FOREST AND NON-FOREST AREAS • REDUCTION EMISSIONS BLACK CARBON AND OTHER NONCO2 GASES AS MITIGATION STRATEGY • WOMEN KEY STAKEHOLDERS IN ADAPTING TO CC • SHIFTING CULTIVATION 24