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WEEK THREE MFRE FUTURES TRADING GAME Ariel, Tekuni, Mia, Linda Outline • • • • • This week’s news Spotlight: US Gov’t Shutdown MFRE Portfolio reviews Lessons Learned this week Top Blogs! This week’s news USDA crop report What did it contain? Same old news Crop stocks higher than expected Corn Soybean China going to need more etc etc What do we do with it? Read it And make trading decisions The question is....do we really do that!!! Maybe no! For a number of us Yes for some! Did it move the market? Most of us were not sure Why? We didn’t read it We still not sure of how to relate the report to market Can’t wake up at 3am Sense some fatigue people become tired of blogging video making and homework Brendan says completing Masters while trading ......is like driving while texting You’ll drive into a ditch! US Government Shutdown What happened? Lessons learned Keep Calm Try new strategies Tell stories! Week Review of MFRE Portfolio Performance Sep 30 – Oct 4 Overview of portfolio return 29-Sep 60% 30-Sep 1-Oct 2-Oct 3-Oct 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% mean maximum minimum 4-Oct 5-Oct Trades Made Since First Week Trades Made 8 7 4 3 2 1 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 Sharpe Ratio Getting Paid for Risk A measure of what an investment returned for each "unit" of risk it carried. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the investment's historical risk-adjusted performance. (Expected Portfolio Return − Risk Free Rate) Portfolio Standard Deviation Notice: Sharpe ratios work best when figured over a period of at least three years. Airlie Behzad Linda 04-Oct 03-Oct 02-Oct 01-Oct 30-Sep 04-Oct 03-Oct 02-Oct 01-Oct 30-Sep 04-Oct 03-Oct 02-Oct 01-Oct 30-Sep Sharpe Ratio Rankings 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Vivid explanation of trading decision Creative Professional Vanilla Chen Introduce new concepts and application in analysis Open interest Spread Correlation matrix Combine the theory with her experience and analysis Professional and deep analysis We need more! Laura Creative strategy basefartlek How to lose money-season 2 Two hedge position with two stop order harmony's mfre blog alex Livestock future New information Analysis Airlie Amanda style format! Forecast of fall in volume Amanda Great graphics Well-written Good analysis Forecast of fall in price Bee