Download Att to 168 Hart

Submission on Setting Australia’s post-2020 target for greenhouse gas emissions in the context of
the UNFCCC negotiations
Terry Hart
1.
What should Australia’s post-2020 target be?
I support the target recommended by the Climate Change Authority. Their review papers (the 2014
version and the recently released draft) provide comprehensive analyses of the issues, including
international comparisons. I support a target for 2030 of around a 50% reduction on 2000 levels of
all greenhouse gas emissions (not just carbon dioxide). Given that reductions are already
commencing but new initiatives will require some spin-up, a target for 2025 of a 30% reduction on
2000 levels is compatible with the 2030 goal. The long range target for 2050 should be at least a 9095% reduction.
The justification for such a target is quite straightforward. The international community including
Australia has agreed that the total concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere needs to
be restricted to that commensurate with a 2 degree increase in temperature. As the chief
greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide) has a very long residence in the atmosphere, the warming effect is
essentially dependent on the cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era.
This then translates into a remaining budget of greenhouse gases that can be emitted. Current
emissions levels will see that budget consumed within 20-30 years so that a target of near zero
emissions will be required by 2050 at the latest unless emissions are reduced. The earlier that
emissions reduce the more tractable the problem becomes.
Global emissions are expected to rise as countries develop and population increases. Australia is the
leading per capita emitter of greenhouse gases among large developed countries and so will be seen
as contributing an inequitable fraction of that global budget. We have an obligation to reduce our
emissions quickly to provide scope for developing countries to maintain or even increase emissions
in the short term as they develop.
The target will need to be achieved through a variety of measures. However, the recent decrease in
Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, even as population, GDP and minerals and energy exports
have all increased, shows that significant greenhouse gas emissions are achievable. For example:
 The doubling of GDP over the last 20 years while greenhouse gas emissions have returned to
near 1990 levels,
 the government is confident that a 13% reduction on 2005 levels will be achieved by 2020
through its current measures.
2.
What would be the impact on Australia?
There will clearly be major benefits for the environment if there is coordinated global action to limit
climate change associated with increased greenhouse concentrations in the atmosphere and ocean.
The overarching benefit is a move to a more sustainable global society. The Australian environment
will benefit as part of that global effort. Unless climate change is averted there will be significant
impact on our agricultural sector through increased drought over the southern part of the continent
and disruption due to changes in climate zones. The natural environment will also benefit as the
current climate trends are threatening many wildlife habitats in cooler mountain regions.
Other benefits include:
 Reduced impact on the land from fossil fuel extraction
 Slowing down of sea level rise and oceanic acidification

Slowing the impact on our coral reefs due to changes in the ocean.
The transformation of energy supply through the Renewable Energy Target (RET) has shown that a
transition to a low carbon economy provides great opportunities for business and for jobs. There are
more jobs in technological innovation than in maintaining the status quo.
Even for the fossil fuel industry there is potential for their future if carbon capture and sequestration
(CCS) can be developed. This is a challenge for the industry and has not been pursued vigorously in
the past. However, there is great potential for innovation, jobs growth and potential export
development if CCS can be developed. As a major fossil fuel exporter Australia is well-placed and it is
in our interest to develop CCS if there is to be a future for these industries and their asserts are not
to be stranded.
3.
Further policies complementary to direct action
Direct action is laudable and can provide incentives for innovation. These could include
encouragement of reafforestation or other measures carbon storage in the land. It could also be
used to encourage innovative practices in agriculture to reduce production of methane, another
potent greenhouse gas.
Another major area is the increase of energy efficiency in industry, domestic homes and transport.
Australia is lagging in its energy efficiency particularly in transport. Regulation may need
strengthening if voluntary measures are not effective.
Regulation may also have role in reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases other than carbon
dioxide, such as methane and nitrous oxide.
However, most measures can be enhanced through some form of price signal that highlights the
externalities associated with fossil fuel use. This should be developed as a complementary measure
to direct action. (For example, there is currently no incentive for the fossil fuel companies to develop
CCS as the external costs they are imposing are not attributed to them.) The revenue generated
could be used both for development of renewable energy and for compensating those industries
and individuals adversely impacted by the transition to a low carbon economy.
In its role as a major fossil fuel exporter, Australia is disadvantaged under current international
carbon accounting. In international policy negotiations Australia could explore the potential for
changes to the accounting such that the energy used in the extraction of fossil fuels is attributed to
the importing country. This principle could be applied more generally to the implicit energy content
in imports and exports. Changes to accounting may be too onerous for comprehensive use, but may
be applicable over the next 20-30 years as the global economy makes this major transition. The
transition would be easier for Australia and the importing countries would have an extra incentive to
reduce their emissions further.