Download Solveig Glomsrød: Large developing economies: current and

Large Developing Economies:
Current and future potential contributions
to climate change
2010-2012
CICERO
in cooperation with
Fudan, Jiaotong, Tsinghua, TERI
Large Developing Economies: Current and future
potential contributions to climate change
• Scenarios for economic
development and
emissions
• Improve methods for
macroeconomic analysis
of climate policy and
poverty
• Improve knowledge on
use of energy in
households.
Scenarios for economic growth and emissions
• A broader selection of
greenhouse gases and
aerosols (particles)
• Economy/energy
models must include
more than fossil fuels
and CO2 emisions
China:
• How fast will 700 million people in the
countryside replace traditional
bioenergy with cleaner energy – fossil or
renewable?
•Will they choose gas or coal?
•Will agriculture become a resource
supplier to modern bioenergy
production?
Develop methods for macroeconomic analysis
of climate policy and poverty reduction
Rural-urban migration
• The largest migration
in history
• 230 million farmers in
the cities
• Floating population –
an integrated part of
the rurally based
family
Work migrants
• Middle generation
work in the cities
• Simple life, high
saving
• Send money to their
families
• Return to their home
village
In the village
• Elderly and children
remain
• Reduced effort in food
production?
• More time to collect
biomass
Our activities
• Household surveys of rural energy production and use
• Household survey of energy use and living standard among
floating population in Shanghai
• Study the role of urban-rural relationship in climate policy
and poverty reduction
• Scenarios for emissions and urban-rural income
distribution towards the next decades
• Effect of policies for climate and poverty reduction on
globale mean temperature .
Household surveys
• Energy production and use,
Insentives among rural households
• Cooperation with Jiaotong
university.
• Energy consumption, floating
population in Shanghai (with
Fudan univ.)
Population growth and climate
• Inkludere de nyeste befolkningsprognosene
i vekstbaner for Kinas økonomi
• Modellere arbeidsmigrasjon og få fram
sammenheng klimapolitikk –fordeling
by-land
Klimaendringer i Kina:
Virkninger på matproduksjon
• Matvarepriser,
lønnskostnader
• Økonomiske
konsekvenser
• Samarbeid med
Chinese Academy
of Science
Klimapolitiske analyser med relevans for
utviklingsland