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Atmosphere and Wind Ch 17: 462-468 The atmosphere • Atmosphere = the thin layer of gases around Earth - Provides oxygen - Absorbs radiation and moderates climate - Transports and recycles water and nutrients - 78% N2, 21% O2 • Minute concentrations of permanent (remain at stable concentrations) gases - Variable gases = varying concentrations across time and place • Human activity is changing the amount of some gases - CO2, methane (CH4), ozone (O3) The atmosphere’s composition The first two layers of the atmosphere • Troposphere = bottommost layer (11 km [7 miles]) - Air for breathing, weather - The air gets colder with altitude - Tropopause = limits mixing between troposphere and the layer above it • Stratosphere = 11–50 km (7–31 mi) above sea level - Drier and less dense, with little vertical mixing - Becomes warmer with altitude - Contains UV radiation-blocking ozone, 17–30 km (10–19 mi) above sea level • The troposphere and stratosphere together make up the lower atmosphere - 99% of all atmospheric air is found here The two highest levels of the atmosphere • Mesosphere = 50–80 km (31–56 mi) above sea level - Extremely low air pressure - Temperatures decrease with altitude • Thermosphere = atmosphere’s top layer - Extends upward to 500 m (300 mi) The atmosphere’s four layers • Atmospheric layers have different - Temperatures - Densities - Composition Solar energy heats the atmosphere • Energy from the sun: - Heats and moves air - Creates seasons - Influences weather and climate • Solar radiation is highest near the equator • The spatial relationship between the Earth and sun determines how much solar energy strikes the Earth • Microclimate = a localized pattern of weather conditions Solar energy creates seasons • Because the Earth is tilted, each hemisphere tilts toward the sun for half the year - Results in a change of seasons Equatorial regions are unaffected by this tilt, so days average 12 hours throughout the year Air masses produce weather • Front = the boundary between air masses that differ in temperature, moisture, and density • Warm front = boundary where warm, moist air replaces colder, drier air • Cold front = where colder, drier air displaces warmer, moister air Warm fronts produce light rain Cold fronts produce thunderstorms Air masses have different pressures • High-pressure system = air that descends because it is cool - It spreads outward as it nears the ground - Brings fair weather • Low-pressure system = warm air rises and draws air inward toward the center of low pressure - Rising air expands and cools - It brings clouds and precipitation Thermal (temperature) inversion • Air temperature decreases as altitude increases - Warm air rises, causing vertical mixing • Thermal inversion = a layer of cool air occurs beneath warm air • Inversion layer = the band of air where temperature rises with altitude - Denser, cooler air at the bottom of the layer resists mixing Atmospheric inversions • Persistent atmospheric inversions in an area with smoke from forest fires cause the smoke to be trapped, impairing air quality for several days • Inversions are commonly found in large cities surrounded by hills and mountains - Examples: - Los Angeles, Mexico City, Mumbai, Vancouver Storms pose hazards • Atmospheric conditions can produce dangerous storms • Hurricanes = form when winds rush into areas of low pressure - Warm, moist air over the topical oceans rises • Typhoons (cyclones) = winds turn counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere - Drawing up huge amounts of water vapor which fall as heavy rains • Tornadoes = form when warm air meets cold air - Quickly rising warm air forms a powerful convective current (spinning funnel) Hurricanes and tornadoes • Understanding how the atmosphere works helps us to: - Predict violent storms and protect people - Comprehend how pollution affects climate, ecosystems, and human health Climate Ch 18: 49-504 The atmosphere drives weather and climate • Weather and climate involve the physical properties of the troposphere - Temperature, pressure, humidity, cloudiness, wind • Weather = specifies atmospheric conditions over short time periods and within small geographic areas • Climate = patterns of atmospheric conditions across large geographic regions over long periods of time • Mark Twain said, “Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get” Solar energy causes air to circulate • Air near Earth’s surface is warm and moist • Convective circulation = less dense, warmer air rises - Creating vertical currents - Rising air expands and cools - Cool air descends and becomes denser - Replacing rising warm air Convection influences weather and climate Circulation systems produce climate patterns • Convective currents contribute to climatic patterns • Hadley cells = convective cells near the equator - Surface air warms, rises, and expands - Causing heavy rainfall near the equator - Giving rise to tropical rainforests • Currents heading north and south are dry - Giving rise to deserts at 30 degrees • Ferrel cells and polar cells = lift air and create precipitation at 60 degrees latitude north and south - Conditions at the poles are dry Global wind patterns • Atmospheric cells interact with Earth’s rotation to produce global wind patterns - As Earth rotates, equatorial regions spin faster • Coriolis effect = the apparent north-south deflection of air currents of the convective cells - Results in curving global wind patterns called the doldrums, trade winds, and westerlies Cold, dry air falls Cell 3 North Polar cap Arctic tundra Evergreen coniferous forest 60° Temperate deciduous forest and grassland Desert 30° Cell 2 North Cool, dry air falls Cell 1 North Tropical deciduous forest 0° Equator Tropical rain forest Tropical deciduous forest Cell 1 South 30° 60° Desert Temperate deciduous forest and grassland Cool, dry air falls Cell 2 South Polar cap Cold, dry air falls Relationship between global air circulation and biomes Moist air rises — rain Moist air rises — rain Cell 3 South Moist air rises, cools, and releases moisture as rain Direct measurements tell us about the present • We document daily fluctuations in weather - Precise thermometer measurements over the past 100 years • Measuring of ocean and atmospheric chemistry began in 1958 • Precise records of historical events - Droughts, etc. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from 315 ppm to 389 ppm Proxy indicators tell us about the past • Paleoclimate = climate of the geological past • Gives a baseline to compare to today’s climate • Proxy indicators = indirect evidence that serve as substitutes for direct measurements - Shed light on past climate - Ice caps, ice sheets, and glaciers hold clues to Earth’s climate history - Trapped bubbles in ice cores provide a timescale of: - Atmospheric composition, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature trends - Snowfall, solar activity, and frequency of fires Ice cores from Antarctica • Ice cores let us go back in time 800,000 years - Reading Earth’s history across eight glacial cycles More proxy indicators • Cores in sediment beds preserve pollen grains and other plant remnants • Tree rings indicate age, precipitation, droughts, and fire history • In arid regions, packrats carry seeds and plants to their middens (dens) - Plant parts can be preserved for centuries • Researchers gather data on past ocean conditions from coral reefs • Scientists combine multiple records to get a global perspective Models help us predict the future • Climate models = programs combine what is known about: - Atmospheric and ocean circulation - Atmosphere–ocean interactions - Feedback mechanisms Models simulate climate processes to accurately predict climate change Results from three simulations • Figure (a) shows natural climate factors only - Volcanoes • Figure (b) shows only human factors - Greenhouse gas emissions • Figure (c) shows both factors Current and future trends and impacts • Evidence that climate conditions have changed since industrialization is everywhere - Fishermen in the Maldives, ranchers in Texas, homeowners in Florida, etc. • Scientific evidence that climate has changed is overwhelming and indisputable • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 - Composed of hundreds of international scientists and government officials The IPCC’s fourth assessment report (2007) • The IPCC reports on the synthesis of scientific information concerning climate change - Global consensus of scientific climate research - Summarized thousands of studies • Documented observed trends in surface temperature, precipitation patterns, snow and ice cover, sea levels, storm intensity, etc. • Predicted impacts of current and future climate change on wildlife, ecosystems, and human societies • Discussed strategies to pursue in response to climate change Greenhouse Gases Ch 18: 495-499 The sun and atmosphere keep Earth warm • Four factors exert the most influence on climate • The sun = without it, Earth would be dark and frozen - Supplies most of Earth’s energy • The atmosphere = without it, Earth’s temperature would be much colder • The oceans = shape climate by storing and transporting heat and moisture • How Earth spins, tilts, and moves through space influence how climate varies over long periods of time The Greenhouse Effect The Earth’s surface receives energy from two sources: the sun & the atmosphere • As a result, the Earth’s surface is ~33C warmer than it would be without an atmosphere • This natural process is called the Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases warm the lower atmosphere • As Earth’s surface absorbs solar radiation, the surface increases in temperature and emits infrared radiation • Greenhouse gases = atmospheric gases that absorb infrared radiation - Water vapor, ozone, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, halocarbons [chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)] • After absorbing radiation, greenhouse gases re-emit infrared energy, losing some energy to space • Greenhouse effect = energy that travels downward, warming the atmosphere and the planet’s surface The greenhouse effect is natural • Greenhouse gases have always been in the atmosphere • We are not worried about the natural greenhouse effect - Anthropogenic (human made) intensification is of concern • Global warming potential = the relative ability of one molecule of a greenhouse gas to contribute to warming - Expressed in relation to carbon dioxide (potential = 1) - Methane is 25 times as potent as carbon dioxide Greenhouse Gases • Burning fossil fuels and biomass are the major sources of increased carbon dioxide in the environment • Major greenhouse gases – Water Vapor – Carbon Dioxide – Methane – Nitrous Oxide – Chlorofluorocarbons – Ozone Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential Major Source Remediation or Reduction Water Vapor H2O 2 Natural, but heating the env. increases rate of evap. Non-human, so not much to do Carbon Dioxide CO2 1 Burning fossil fuels Moving to alternative energy sources, carbon sequestering Methane CH4 20 Livestock, anaerobic respiration from landfills and swamps Capture, compress, and burn as a natural gas. Reducing emissions would have an immediate effect Nitrous Oxide N2O 300 High temperature combustion, especially in cars Electric or hybrid cars Chlorofluorocarbons CFCs 6500 Purely anthropogenic— not natural. Found in fridges Currently banned. Even though no more are being made, they persist for 100s of years Ozone O3 Potent Smog resulting from cars, Reduce emissions of smog-causing industrial pollution, gases by using scrubbers on burning biomass smokestacks and cars Selected Greenhouse Gases • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Source: Fossil fuel burning, deforestation • Anthropogenic increase: 30% • Average atmospheric residence time: 500 years • Methane (CH4) • Source: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay from landfills, mining • Anthropogenic increase: 145% • Average atmospheric residence time: 7-10 years • Nitrous oxide (N2O) • Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers) • Anthropogenic increase: 15% • Average atmospheric residence time: 140-190 years Carbon dioxide is of primary concern • It is not the most potent greenhouse gas, but it is extremely abundant - The major contributor to the greenhouse effects • CO2 exerts 6x more impact than methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons combined • Deposition, partial decay, and compression of organic matter (mostly plants) in wetlands or marine areas led to formation of coal, oil, and natural gas - These deposits remained buried for millions of years What caused levels of CO2 to increase? • Burning fossil fuels transfer CO2 from lithospheric reservoirs into the atmosphere - The main reason atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased so dramatically • Deforestation contributes to rising atmospheric CO2 - Forests serve as reservoirs for carbon - Removing trees reduces the carbon dioxide absorbed from the atmosphere • Human activities increased atmospheric CO2 from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 389 ppm - The highest levels in more than 800,000 years Other greenhouse gases add to warming • Methane = fossil fuels, livestock, landfills, crops (rice) - Levels have doubled since 1750 • Nitrous oxide = feedlots, chemical manufacturing plants, auto emissions, and synthetic nitrogen fertilizers • Ozone levels have risen 36% due to photochemical smog • Halocarbon gases (CFCs) are declining due to the Montreal Protocol • Water vapor = the most abundant greenhouse gas - Contributes most to the natural greenhouse effect - Concentrations have not changed The importance of methane (CH4) • 23 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2 • The livestock sector is a major player, which accounts for 35-40% global anthropogenic emissions of methane (their burps!) - The livestock sector is responsible for 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions • Therefore, consuming less meat can help reduce global warming more than not driving cars. U.S. emissions of major greenhouse gases Feedback complicates our predictions • Tropospheric warming will transfer more water to the air - But the effects are uncertain • A positive feedback loop = more water vapor … more warming … more evaporation … more water vapor … • A negative feedback loop = more water vapor … more clouds … shade and cool Earth OR increase evaporation • Minor modifications of the atmosphere can lead to major effects on climate Most aerosols exert a cooling effect • Aerosols = microscopic droplets and particles - They have either a warming or a cooling effect • Soot (black carbon aerosols) causes warming by absorbing solar energy - But most tropospheric aerosols cool the atmosphere by reflecting the sun’s rays • Sulfate aerosols produced by fossil fuel combustion may slow global warming, at least in the short term - Volcanic eruptions reduce sunlight reaching Earth’s surface and cool the Earth Ozone Ch 17: 79-482 Ozone in the atmosphere • Ozone (O3) forms under the effect of UV light in the stratosphere • Ozone can also form in the troposphere - It forms naturally from volcanic activity - It is produced by motor vehicles so it is a pollutant - Sunlight acts on NOx to produce O3 Stratospheric Ozone • The ozone in the stratosphere acts as “Global sunscreen,” keeping about 95% of the sun’s harmful UV radiation from reaching the earth’s surface. - So, stratospheric ozone is beneficial - Tropospheric ozone is harmful Synthetic chemicals deplete stratospheric ozone • Ozone layer = ozone in the lower stratosphere - Blocks incoming ultraviolet (UV) radiation - Protecting life from radiation’s damaging effects • Ozone-depleting substances = human-made chemicals that destroy ozone by splitting its molecules apart - Halocarbons = human-made compounds made from hydrocarbons with added chlorine, bromine, or fluorine - Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) = a halocarbon used as refrigerants, in fire extinguishers, in aerosol cans, etc. - Releases chlorine atoms that split ozone The Ozone Layer • Ozone is an unstable gas that rapidly breaks down - The ozone layer is only a few cm thick - If the rate of breakdown is faster than the rate of formation the ozone layer thins, this could develop into hole - A hole in the Antarctic was first observed in 1985 OZONE DEPLETION IN THE STRATOSPHERE Since 1976, in Antarctica, ozone levels have markedly decreased during October and November. Each winter, steady winds blow in a circular pattern over Earth’s poles causing a huge mass of cold air that circulates over Antarctica and isolates its air from the rest of the atmosphere until the sun returns ◦ Water entering this frigid air freezes, locking CFCs in water ice crystals that are released and cause their reactions when the sun returns ◦ Huge masses of ozone-depleted air then flow over Australia, New Zealand, South America, and South Africa Can raise UV-B levels by up to 20% Some thing happens to a lesser extent over the Arctic region CFCs destroy ozone • CFCs are inert (don’t react) • CFCs remain in the stratosphere for a century • UV radiation breaks CFCs into chlorine and carbon atoms • The chlorine atom splits ozone One chlorine atom can destroy 100,000 ozone molecules The cause of the hole • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) • CFCs are odorless and stable. • CFCs are nonflammable, nontoxic, and noncorrosive. - The breakdown under the effect of UV light to release chlorine radicals (Cl), especially under cold conditions - The chlorine atom react with O3 converting it to O2 and ClO © 2007 Paul Billiet ODWS Causes • Most CFCs are not used in developed countries or will mostly phased out by 2020 - Phase out dates are later for developing countries The current situation • The holes developing over the pole suggest that they may be showing an improvement - CFC molecules take 30 years to rise up to the stratosphere - The chlorine radicals last a long time - The peak ozone damage was supposed to be in 2000 - Damage could go on another 50 years Effects of Ozone Depletion • Human health • Worse sunburn, eye cataracts, skin cancers, immune system suppression • Food and forests • Reduced crop yields, reduced seafood supplies from reduced phytoplankton, decreased forest productivity from UV-sensitive trees • Wildlife • Increased eye cataracts, decreased population of UVsensitive aquatic species, reduced population of surface phytoplankton, disrupted aquatic food webs from phytoplankton reduction Effects of Ozone Depletion • Air Pollution and Materials - Increased acid rain and smog (reactions accelerated by highenergy UV radiation) - Degradation of outdoor paints and plastics • Global warming - Accelerated warming because of decreased ocean uptake of carbon dioxide from atmosphere by phytoplankton and CFCs acting as greenhouse gases What can be done? • Reduce the use of CFCs - They are already banned in aerosols (1987) - BUT they are still used as refrigerants - Recycle fridges and air conditioning units The Montreal Protocol • Montreal Protocol = 196 nations agreed to cut CFC production in half by 1998 • Follow-up agreements deepened cuts, advanced timetables, and addressed other ozone-depleting chemicals - Industry shifted to safer, inexpensive, and efficient alternatives • Challenges still face us - CFCs will remain in the stratosphere for a long time - Nations can ask for exemptions to the ban The Montreal Protocol is a success • It is considered our biggest environmental success story • Research developed rapidly, along with technology • Policymakers included industry in helping solve the problem • Implementation of the plan allowed an adaptive management strategy - Strategies responded to new scientific data, technological advances, and economic figures • The Montreal Protocol can serve as a model for international environmental cooperation Protecting the ozone layer International agreements reduced ozone-depleting substances The hole in the ozone has stopped growing Climate Change, pt 1 Ch 18: 504-512 What is climate change? • Climate change is the fastest-developing area of environmental science • Climate = an area’s long-term atmospheric conditions - Temperature, moisture, wind, precipitation, etc. - Weather = short-term conditions at localized sites • Global climate change = describes trends and variations in Earth’s climate - Temperature, precipitation, storm frequency • Global warming and climate change are not the same Natural Climate Change • Main alterations in the climate come from volcanic eruptions, changes in solar input, moving continents, meteor strikes, and other factors • Over the past 1,000 years, the Earth has experienced fairly stable temperatures, with a rise becoming noticeable during the last century • Major hypotheses about changing climate: - Change in the Earth’s elliptical orbit about every 100,000 years - Change due to tilt on Earth’s axis every 40,000 years - Ice ages could have been caused by wobbling of Earth on its axis (every 26,000 years) - 11-year sunspot cycles and 22-year solar magnetic cycles Ocean circulation influences climate • Ocean circulation = ocean water exchanges heat with the atmosphere, - Currents move energy from place to place • The ocean’s thermohaline circulation system affects regional climates - Moving warm tropical water north, etc. - Greenland’s melting ice sheet will affect this flow • El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - Shifts atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Milankovitch cycles influence climate • Milankovitch cycles = periodic changes in Earth’s rotation and orbit around the sun - Alter the way solar radiation is distributed over Earth • These cycles modify patterns of atmospheric heating - Triggering climate variation - For example, periods of cold glaciation and warm interglacial times Solar output and ocean absorption influence climate • Solar output = the sun varies in the radiation it emits - Variation in solar energy (e.g., solar flares) has not been great enough to change Earth’s temperature - Radiative forcing is 0.12 watts/m2 – much less than human causes • Ocean absorption = the ocean holds 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere - Slowing global warming but not preventing it • Warmer oceans absorb less CO2 - A positive feedback effect that accelerates warming How might changes in reflectivity affect atmosphere temperatures? • The Ice Albedo Feedback System - Different parts of earth’s surface vary in their albedo (ability to reflect light) - White snow and ice reflect most sunlight (high albedo), land and water absorb sunlight (low albedo) - Albedo increases when polar ice caps expand during glacial periods and decrease when they melt - A positive ice albedo feedback could accelerate global warming Global warming • Global warming = an increase in Earth’s average temperature - Only one aspect of climate change • Climate change and global warming refer to current trends - Earth’s climate has varied naturally through time • The current rapid climatic changes are due to humans - Fossil fuel combustion and deforestation • Understanding climate change requires understanding how our planet’s climate works Global Warming vs. Ozone Depletion Global Warming Ozone Depletion Layer of Atmosphere Troposphere Stratosphere Substances involved CO2, CH4, N2O O3, O2, CFC’s Problem Increasing greenhouse gases CFC’s released—decreases 03 concentration Consequence Changes in climate, water supplies, sea level Increased incidence of skin cancer, eye cataracts, damage to crops Response Decrease fossil fuel use and deforestation Eliminate CFC’s and other ozonedepleting compounds Temperatures continue to increase • Average surface temperatures increased 0.74 °C since 1906 - Most of the increase occurred in the last few decades - Extremely hot days have increased - The 16 warmest years on record have been since 1990 The future will be hotter • In the next 20 years, temperatures will rise 0.4 °C • At the end of the 21st century, temperatures will be 1.8– 4.0 °C higher than today’s - We will have unusually hot days and heat waves • Polar areas will have the most intense warming • Sea surface temperatures will rise • Hurricanes and tropical storms will increase - In power and duration Precipitation is changing, too • Some regions are receiving more precipitation than usual, and others are receiving less • Droughts have become more frequent and severe - Harming agriculture, promoting soil erosion, reducing water supplies, and triggering fires • Heavy rains contribute to flooding - Killing people, destroying homes, and inflicting billions of dollars in damage Projected changes in precipitation Precipitation will increase at high latitudes and decrease at low and middle latitudes Melting snow and ice • Mountaintop glaciers are disappearing - Glaciers on tropical mountaintops have disappeared - The remaining 26 of 150 glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone by 2020 or 2030 - Reducing summertime water supplies • Melting of Greenland’s Arctic ice sheet is accelerating • Warmer water is melting Antarctic coastal ice shelves - Interior snow is increasing due to more precipitation • Melting ice exposes darker, less-reflective surfaces, which absorb more sunlight, causing more melting Worldwide, glaciers are melting rapidly • Nations are rushing to exploit underwater oil and mineral resources made available by newly opened shipping lanes • Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is thawing - Destabilizing soil, buildings, etc. and releasing methane Rising sea levels • Runoff from melting glaciers and ice will cause sea levels to rise • As oceans warm, they expand - Leading to beach erosion, coastal floods, and intrusion of salt water into aquifers Coastal areas will flood An earthquake caused the 2004 tsunami (tidal wave) that killed 100 Maldives residents and caused $470 million in damages • Storm surge = temporary, localized rise in sea level - Caused by the high tides and winds of storms • Cities will be flooded - 53% of people in the U.S. live in coastal areas Rising sea levels will devastate coasts • 1 million acres of Louisiana’s wetlands are gone - Rising sea levels eat away vegetation - Dams upriver decrease siltation - Pollution from the Deepwater Horizon • Millions of people will be displaced from coastal areas Coral reefs are threatened • Coral reefs are habitat for food fish - Snorkeling and scuba diving sites for tourism • Warmer waters contribute to coral bleaching - Which kills corals • Increased CO2 is acidifying the ocean - Organisms can’t build their exoskeletons • Oceans have already decreased by 0.1 pH unit - Enough to kill most coral reefs Central Case: Rising seas may flood the Maldives • Tourists think the Maldives Islands are a paradise • Rising seas due to global climate change could submerge them - Erode beaches, cause flooding - Damage coral reefs • Residents have evacuated the lowest-lying islands • Small nations are not the cause of climate change, yet they suffer Climate Change, pt 2 Ch 18: 512- Climate change affects organisms and ecosystems • Organisms are adapted to their environments - They are affected when those environments change • Global warming modifies temperature-dependent phenomena (e.g., timing of migration, breeding) • Animals and plants will move toward the poles or upward in elevation - 20–30% of species will be threatened with extinction - Rare species will be pushed out of preserves • Droughts, fire, and disease will decrease plant growth - Fewer plants means more CO2 in the atmosphere Climate change affects people • Societies are feeling the impacts of climate change • Agriculture: shortened growing seasons, decreased production, crops more susceptible to droughts - Increasing hunger • Forestry: increased fires, invasive species - Insect and disease outbreaks • Health: heat waves and stress can cause death - Respiratory ailments, expansion of tropical diseases - Disease and sanitation problems from flooding - Drowning from storms Climate change affects economics • Costs will outweigh benefits of climate change • It will widen the gap between rich and poor - Those with less wealth and technology will suffer most • External costs of damages will be $10–350/ton of carbon • It will cost 1–5% GDP on average globally - Poor nations will lose more than rich ones • The Stern Review predicts it will cost 5–20% of GDP by 2200 - Investing 1% of GDP now could avoid these costs Impacts will vary regionally • Where we live will determine how we experience the impacts of climate change • Temperature changes have been greatest in the Arctic - Melting ice sheets, thinning ice, increasing storms, etc. - Harder for people and polar bears to hunt • U.S. temperatures will continue rising - Plant communities will shift north and upward - More frequent extreme weather events • The southern U.S. will get drier, the northern wetter - Sea levels will rise and may be worse in the East The U.S. Global Change Research Program • In 2009, scientists reported and predicted: - Temperature increases - Worse droughts and flooding - Decreased crop yields - Water shortages - Health problems and diseases - Higher sea levels, beach erosion, destroyed wetlands - Drought, fire, and pests will change forests - More grasslands and deserts, fewer forests - Undermined Alaskan buildings and roads Predictions from two climate models By 2050, Illinois will have a climate like Missouri’s By 2090, it will have a climate like Louisiana’s Are we responsible for climate change? • Scientists agree that increased greenhouse gases are causing global warming - Burning fossil fuels is increasing greenhouse gases • In 2005, scientists from 11 nations issued a joint statement urging political leaders to take action • There is a broad and clear scientific consensus that climate change is a pressing issue - But many people deny what is happening • People will admit the climate is changing - But doubt we are the cause Climate Change and Human Activities • Humans have been emitted CO2 and CH4 from agriculture for over 11,000 years - Began increasing 8,000 ya during periods of slash-and-burn clearing and development; cultivating methane-producing animals - Continued increase when flooding lowlands for rice growth - Ruddiman (2005) estimated that those activities interrupted what should have been a global cooling cycle that would be in effect today (usually follows interglacial period) Climate Change and Human Activities • Since the industrial revolution (1750) there has been a sharp rise in - use of fossil fuels (release CO2 and CH4) - deforestation and clearing of grasslands to raise crops (release CO2 and N2O) - cultivation of rice in paddies and use of inorganic fertilizers (release N20) • The two largest contributors to CO2 emissions are coal burning power plants and vehicles The debate over climate change is over • Conservative think tanks and industry-sponsored scientists cast doubt on the scientific consensus • The news media tries to present two sides to an issue - But the sides’ arguments are not equally supported by evidence • Most Americans accept that fossil fuel consumption is changing the planet • Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth helped turn the tide - People who disliked his politics rejected his message Acid Deposition Ch 17: 83-486 Acid deposition • Acid deposition is another transboundary issue • Acidic deposition = the deposition of acid, or acidforming pollutants from the atmosphere onto Earth’s surface • Acid rain = precipitation containing acid - Rain, snow, sleet, hail • Atmospheric deposition = the wet or dry deposition on land of pollutants (mercury, nitrates, organochlorines) - From automobiles, electric utilities, industrial facilities Acid Deposition • Sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulates react in the atmosphere to produce acidic chemicals that travel long distances before coming back to the earth. – Tall smokestacks reduce local pollution, but can increase regional pollution. – Acidic particles remain in the atmosphere for 2–14 days, depending on the prevailing winds, precipitation, and other weather patterns. Burning fossil fuels produces acid rain • Burning fossil fuels releases sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides - These compounds react with water, oxygen, and oxidants to form sulfuric and nitric acids Acid Deposition • The acidic substances return to the earth in one of two forms: - Wet deposition as acidic rain, snow, fog, and cold vapor with a pH less than 5.6 - Dry deposition as acidic particles What Ever Happened to Acid Rain? • In the 1980s, acid rain received a lot of media attention. - Although we don’t hear about acid rain as much these days, it is still a problem that deserves our attention. What is Acid Rain? How Does it Form? • Precipitation with a pH lower than 5.6 is considered acidic - SOx and NOx particles can travel long distances on wind currents - By combining with water vapor, these particles form acids which fall to the earth as acid rain Where do Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Particles Come From? • Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide particles are emitted from utility plants, especially coal-fed electric plants - Cars also emit acid rain causing pollution Acid Deposition Effects • Acid deposition can cause or worsen respiratory disease, attack metallic and stone objects, decrease atmospheric visibility, and kill fish. – Large amounts of money are spent each year to clean and repair monuments and statues damaged by acid deposition. – Acid deposition also decreases atmospheric visibility. – Acidified lakes have fish kill, and aluminum ions are released into the water by the lower pH (4.5 or less). – Many lakes in northern Europe and the eastern U.S. have few, if any, fish due to decreased pH. Impacts of acid deposition • Nutrients are leached from topsoil • Soil chemistry is changed • Metal ions (aluminum, zinc, etc.) are converted into soluble forms that pollute water • Affects surface water and kills fish • Damages agricultural crops • Erodes stone buildings, corrodes cars, erases writing on tombstones How Does Acid Rain Effect Our Lives? • Poor forest/crop health due to acidification of soil: acid rain can kill nutrient-producing microorganisms How Does Acid Rain Effect Our Lives? • Acidification of lakes and streams can lead to the death of aquatic life, such as trout and bass How Does Acid Rain Effect Our Lives? • Acidity can leach heavy metals like mercury out of the soil, causing toxic levels to build up in the fish we eat Plants and Acid Deposition • Acid deposition can deplete some soil nutrients, release toxic ions into soil, and weaken plants that become susceptible to other stresses – Effects of acid deposition on plants is caused partly by chemical interaction in the soils. • Herbivores that eat these plants can also develop calcium deficiencies. • Weakened trees are more susceptible to diseases. – Acid can also dissolve aluminum, cadmium, and mercury ions from the soil. These ions are toxic to plants and animals. – The mountaintop trees are those that are most harmed by acidic rain because they are also growing in thin soils Downwind Acid Deposition • Acid deposition is a problem in areas downwind from coal-burning facilities and urban areas. – Some areas have basic compounds in the soil that act to buffer or neutralize some acidic deposits. – Many acid-producing chemicals generated in one country end up in other countries due to prevailing winds. What else needs to be done about Acid Rain ? • In 1990, an amendment to the Clean Air Act called for reductions in sulfur emissions - Established an emissions trading program for sulfur dioxide - Benefits outweighed costs 40:1 – This proved to be less effective than hoped, as acid deposition still persists today – Acid deposition has also increased concentrations of toxic forms of aluminum in some soil and in lakes and streams. • It is predicted that an additional 80% reduction in SO2 emissions would be needed to allow northeastern streams and lakes to recover from the effects of acid deposition. • This is largely due to 2 reasons: 1) reductions in sulfur emissions were not great enough 2) there were no reductions in nitrogen emissions which are also implicated in forming acid rain What Can be Done About Acid Rain? • Prevention: - Reduce air pollution by improving energy efficiency and increasing renewable resources - Use natural gas/low sulfur coal • Cleanup - Add lime to neutralize acidified lakes and soils The Future • A number of prevention and control methods can reduce acid deposition, but they are politically difficult to implement. – The best approaches are those that reduce or eliminate emissions of SO2, NOx, and particulates. – Use of low sulfur coal is both good and bad • It lowers the amount of SO2 released, but because more must be burned to generate the same amount of electricity, it emits more mercury, CO2, and radioactive particles. Climate Solutions Ch 18: 517-525 The Scientific Consensus about Future Climate Change • Measured and projected changes in the average temperature of the atmosphere. • 90-99% probability that Earth’s temperature will increase by 2.4-5.4 C (4.5-9.7 F) by 2100 - IPCC, U.S. National Academy of Sciences, American Geophysical Union have reached similar projections 2007 Conclusions from the International Panel on Climate Change • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Very high confidence that global average net effect of human activities since 1750 one of warming • Human-caused warming over last 30 years has likely had a visible influence on many physical and biological systems • Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.” Shall we pursue mitigation or adaptation? • Most people accept that our planet is changing - They are searching for solutions • Mitigation = pursue actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to lessen severity of future climate change - Energy efficiency, renewable energy, protecting soil, preventing deforestation • Adaptation = accept that climate change is happening - Pursue strategies to minimize its impacts on us - Seawalls, leaving the area, coping with drought, etc. • Both are necessary We need both adaptation and mitigation • Adaptation: even if we stopped all emissions, warming would continue • Mitigation: if we do nothing, we will be overwhelmed by climate changes The faster we reduce our emissions, the less we will alter the climate Electricity generation A coal-fired, electricity-generating power plant • The largest source of U.S. CO2 emissions - 70% of electricity comes from fossil fuels - Coal causes 50% of emissions • To reduce fossil fuel use: - Encourage conservation and efficiency - Switch to cleaner and renewable energy sources Conservation and efficiency • We can make lifestyle choices to reduce electricity use - Use fewer greenhouse-gas-producing appliances - Use electricity more efficiently • The EPA’s Energy Star Program rates appliances, lights, windows, etc. by their energy efficiency - Replace old appliances with efficient ones - Use compact fluorescent lights - Use efficient windows, ducts, insulation, heating and cooling systems Sources of electricity • We need to switch to clean energy sources - Nuclear power, biomass energy, solar, wind, etc. • We need to consider how we use fossil fuels - Switching from coal to natural gas cuts emissions 50% - Cogeneration produces fewer emissions • Carbon capture = removes CO2 from power plant emissions • Carbon sequestration (storage) = storing carbon underground where it will not seep out - Use depleted oil and gas deposits, salt mines, etc. - We can’t store enough CO2 to make a difference Carbon Sequestration • • Carbon sequestration is the process of capturing and storing carbon dioxide emissions Many different methods available: - Planting trees that sequester and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide - Soil sequestration- plants such as switchgrass can remove carbon dioxide from the air and store it in the soil - Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from the soil- use no-till cultivation and set aside depleted crop fields - Remove carbon dioxide from smokestacks- carbon dioxide is pumped deep underground or injected deep into the ocean - Problems: expensive, limited amount of carbon dioxide can be removed, would increase cost of electricity, could upset global carbon cycle and deep-sea life Transportation • 2nd largest source of U.S. greenhouse gases - Cars are inefficient • Ways to help: - More efficient cars - Hybrid or electric cars - Drive less and use public transportation - Live near your job, so you can bike or walk U.S. public transportation saves 4.2 billion gallons of gasoline and 37 million metric tons of CO2 emissions We can reduce emissions in other ways • Agriculture: sustainable land management lets soil store more carbon - Reduce methane emissions from rice and cattle - Grow renewable biofuels • Forestry: reforest cleared land, preserve existing forests - Sustainable forestry practices • Waste management: treating wastewater - Generating electricity by incinerating waste - Recovering methane from landfills • Individuals can recycle, compost, reduce, or reuse goods Government Role in Reducing Climate Change • Could reduce using three major methods: - Carbon taxes/energy taxes- taxes on each unit of carbon dioxide emitted by fossil fuels or each unit of fossil fuel burned - Could offset cost by decreasing taxes on income, labor, and profits - Level economic playing field- greatly increase government subsidies for energy-efficient technologies, carbon-free renewable energy technologies, carbon sequestration, and sustainable agriculture - Reduce subsidies and tax-breaks for non-renewable energy - Technology transfer- governments of developed countries give renewable-energy technology to developing countries Future Implications • Projected global warming will cost the world economy more than $300 million annually by 2050 - Implementing strategies might cost more in the short-term, but would cost less in the long-term dealing with harmful effects • Critics say taking measures to combat global climate change will hurt the economy too much to be useful - Problems: do not take into account savings from using renewable energy sources, underestimate ability of marketplace to respond to economic initiatives, underestimate potential costs of disasters and disease from climate change Preparing for Climate Change • The world would need a 60% cut in emissions of ghg (greenhouse gases) to stabilize their concentrations in the troposphere by 2050 • Wise to have some preparation (adaptation strategy) - Connect wildlife reserves with corridors - Move hazardous materials storage tanks away from the coast - Expand existing wildlife reserves toward poles - Stockpile supply of key foods - Prohibit new construction in low-lying coastal areas - Waste less water, and develop crops that need less water 8 Technologies that could save 8 billion tons of carbon - Produce more fuel-efficient - - vehicles Reduce vehicle use Improve energy-efficiency in buildings Develop carbon capture and storage processes Triple nuclear power Increase solar power Decrease deforestation/plant forests Improve soil carbon management strategies The FCCC • U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change = a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 through a voluntary, nation-by-nation approach • By the late 1990s, it was clear that the voluntary approach would not succeed • Developing nations created a binding international treaty requiring emission reductions • The Kyoto Protocol = between 2008 and 2012, signatory nations must reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases to levels below those of 1990 The Kyoto Protocol tried to limit emissions • This treaty took effect in 2005 - After Russia became the 127th nation to ratify it • The United States will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol - It requires industrialized nations to reduce emissions - But it does not require industrializing nations (China and India) to reduce theirs • Other countries resent the U.S. because it emits 20% of the world’s greenhouse gases but won’t take action - In 2007, one delegate said, “If for some reason you are not willing to lead...please get out of the way.” The Copenhagen conference • The conference in 2009 tried to design a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol - Nations hoped the U.S., under President Obama, would participate in a full international agreement • Obama would not promise more than Congress had agreed to • In a last-minute deal, developed nations will help developing nations pay for mitigation and adaptation - Nations that reduce deforestation will be rewarded • Nothing is legally binding and no targets are set Outdoor Air Pollution Outdoor air pollution • Air pollutants = gases and particulate material added to the atmosphere - Can affect climate or harm people or other organisms • Air pollution = the release of pollutants • Outdoor (ambient) air pollution = pollution outside - Has recently decreased due to government policy and improved technologies in developed countries - Developing countries and urban areas still have significant problems Natural Sources pollute: • Volcanoes - Release particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and other gases • Fires - Fires pollute the atmosphere with soot and gases • Dust Storms - Wind over arid land sends huge amounts of dust into the air, even across oceans We create outdoor air pollution • Air pollution comes from mobile or stationary sources • Point sources = specific spots where large quantities of pollutants are discharged (power plants and factories) • Non-point sources = more diffuse, consisting of many small sources (automobiles) • Primary pollutants = directly harmful and can react to form harmful substances (soot and carbon monoxide) • Secondary pollutants = form when primary pollutants interact or react with components of the atmosphere - Tropospheric ozone and sulfuric acid Pollutants exert local and global effects • Residence time = the time a pollutant stays in the atmosphere • Pollutants with brief residence times exert localized impacts over short time periods - Particulate matter, automobile exhaust • Pollutants with long residence times exert regional or global impacts - Pollutants causing climate change or - ozone depletion Legislation addresses pollution • Air Pollution Control Act (1963) funded research and encouraged emissions standards • The Clean Air Act of 1970 - Set standards for air quality, limits on emissions - Provided funds for pollution-control research - Allowed citizens to sue parties violating the standards • The Clean Air Act of 1990 strengthened regulations for auto emissions, toxic air pollutants, acidic deposition, stratospheric ozone depletion - Introduced emissions trading for sulfur dioxide The EPA sets standards • The EPA sets nationwide standards for emissions and concentrations of toxic pollutants • States monitor air quality - They develop, implement, and enforce regulations - They submit plans to the EPA for approval • The EPA takes over enforcement if plans are inadequate • Criteria pollutants = pollutants that pose especially great threats to human health - Carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, tropospheric ozone, particulate matter, lead Criteria pollutants: CO and SO2 • Carbon monoxide (CO) = colorless, odorless gas - Produced primarily by incomplete combustion of fuel - From vehicles and engines, industry, waste combustion, residential wood burning - Poses risk to humans and animals, even in small concentrations • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) = colorless gas with a strong odor - Coal emissions from electricity generation, industry - Can form acid precipitation Criteria pollutants: NO2 • Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) = a highly reactive, foul-smelling reddish brown gas - Nitrogen oxides (NOx) = formed when nitrogen and oxygen react at high temperatures in engines - Vehicles, industrial combustion, electrical utilities - Contribute to smog and acid precipitation • Tropospheric ozone (O3) = a colorless gas with a strong odor - Results from interactions of sunlight, heat, nitrogen oxides, and volatile carbon-containing chemicals - A secondary pollutant and a major component of smog - Participates in reactions that harm tissues and cause respiratory problems - The pollutant that most frequently exceeds EPA standards Criteria pollutants: particulate matter and lead • Particulate matter = suspended solid or liquid particles - Primary pollutants: dust and soot - Secondary pollutants: sulfates and nitrates - Damages respiratory tissue when inhaled - From dust and combustion processes • Lead = in gasoline and industrial metal smelting - Bioaccumulates and damages the nervous system - Banned in gasoline in developed, but not in developing, countries Agencies monitor emissions • State and local agencies monitor, calculate, and report to the EPA the emissions of these pollutants: - Carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, lead, and all nitrogen oxides • Tropospheric ozone has no emissions to monitor - It is a secondary pollutant • Agencies monitor volatile organic compounds (VOCs) = carbon-containing chemicals - Used and emitted by engines and industrial processes - VOCs can react to produce ozone We have reduced air pollution • Total emissions of the six monitored pollutants have declined 60% since the Clean Air Act of 1970 - Despite increased population, energy consumption, miles traveled, and gross domestic product We reduced emissions and improved the economy • Technology and federal policies • Cleaner-burning engines and catalytic converters • Permit-trading programs and clean coal technologies reduce SO2 emissions • Scrubbers = chemically convert or physically remove pollutants before they leave smokestacks • Phaseout of leaded gasoline Toxic substances pose health risks • Toxic air pollutants = substances that cause: - Cancer, reproductive defects - Neurological, developmental, immune system, or respiratory problems • The EPA regulates 188 toxic air pollutants from metal smelting, sewage treatment, industry, etc. • Include heavy metals, VOCs, diesel, urban hazards • Clean Air Act regulations helped reduce emissions by more than 35% since 1990 Industrializing nations suffer increasing pollution • Outdoor pollution is getting worse in developing nations • Factories and power plants pollute - Governments emphasize economic growth, not pollution control • People burn traditional fuels (wood and charcoal) - And more own cars • China has the world’s worst air pollution - Coal burning, more cars, power plants, factories - Causing over 300,000 premature deaths/year Pollution in developing nations is high More people own cars Smog in Beijing surrounds an Olympic stadium Air pollution in China • The government is trying to decrease pollution - Shutting down heavily polluting factories and mines - Phasing out some subsidies for polluting industries - Installing pollution controls in factories - Encouraging renewable and nuclear energy - Mandating cleaner burning fuels • Air is improving in Beijing but not in other places • Asian (Atmospheric) Brown Cloud = a 2-mile-thick layer of pollution over southern Asia - Decreased plant productivity, increased flooding, etc. Smog: our most common air quality problem • Smog = an unhealthy mixture of air pollutants over urban areas • Sulfur in burned coal combines with oxygen to form sulfuric acid • Industrial (gray air) smog = industries burn coal or oil - Regulations in developed countries reduced smog • Coal-burning industrializing countries face health risks - Coal and lax pollution control Smog in Donora killed 21 people and sickened 6,000 Photochemical (brown air) smog • Produced by a series of reactions - Formed in hot, sunny cities surrounded by mountains • Light-driven reactions of primary pollutants and atmospheric compounds - Morning traffic releases NO and VOCs - Irritates eyes, noses, and throats • Los Angeles smog kills 3,900/year and costs $28 billion/year High levels of NO2 cause photochemical smog to form a brown haze over cities We can reduce smog • Regulations require new cars to have catalytic converters • Require cleaner industrial facilities - Close those that can’t improve • Financial incentives to replace aging vehicles - Restricting driving • Vehicle inspection programs (“smog checks”) • Reduce sulfur in diesel; remove lead in gasoline • Electronic pollution indicator boards raise awareness • But increased population and cars can wipe out advances Indoor Air Pollution Ch 17: 486-490 Indoor air pollution • Indoor air pollution = in workplaces, schools, and homes - Health effects are greater than from outdoor pollution • The average U.S. citizen spends 90% of the time indoors - Exposed to synthetic materials that have not been comprehensively tested • Being environmentally prudent can make it worse - To reduce heat loss and improve efficiency, ventilation systems were sealed off - Windows do not open, trapping pollutants inside Indoor air pollution in the developing world • Stems from burning wood, charcoal, dung, crop wastes with little to no ventilation • Fuel burning pollution causes 1.6 million deaths/year - Soot and carbon monoxide - Pneumonia, bronchitis, lung cancer, allergies, cataracts, asthma, heart disease, etc. Tobacco smoke and radon • The most dangerous indoor pollutants in developed nations • Secondhand smoke from cigarettes is very dangerous - Contains over 4,000 chemical compounds - Causes eye, nose, and throat irritation - Smoking has declined in developed nations • Radon causes 21,000 deaths a year in the U.S. - A radioactive gas resulting from natural decay of rock, soil, or water that can seep into buildings - New homes are being built that are radon resistant VOCs pollute indoor air • The most diverse group of indoor air pollutants - Released by everything from plastics and oils to perfumes and paints - Most VOCs are released in very small amounts • Unclear health implications due to low concentrations • Formaldehyde leaking from pressed wood and insulation irritates mucous membranes and induces skin allergies • Pesticides seep through floors and walls - Are brought in on shoe soles Living organisms can pollute indoors • Dust mites and animal dander worsen asthma • Fungi, mold, mildew, airborne bacteria cause allergies, asthma, other respiratory ailments, and diseases • Building-related illness = a sickness produced by indoor pollution • Sick building syndrome = a sickness produced by indoor pollution with general and nonspecific symptoms - Reduced by using low-toxicity building materials and good ventilation “Sick Building Syndrome” • EPA studies linked certain pollutants found in buildings to many negative health effects – Respiratory problems, irritability and depression, chronic fatigue, flu-like symptoms, allergic reactions • The symptoms people report cannot be traced to any one particular cause • EPA estimates about 1 in 5 commercial buildings are “sick buildings,” meaning they expose employees to health risks from indoor air pollutants Risks of Sick Building Syndrome • Different types of buildings have different associated risks – Older buildings: asbestos and lead – Newer buildings: formaldehyde and other VOCs – Houses with wood-burning or kerosene stoves: nitrogen and carbon oxides BUILDING OCCUPANTS • The sensitivity of people to indoor pollutants varies depending on genetic factors, lifestyle, & age. • Symptoms also vary as a function of the particular pollutant. - Some can be fatal under special circumstances (e.g. CO poisoning). - The problems in sick buildings may be traceable to specific sources, or they may be unknown • Sick building syndrome can be brought on by stress from various sources, even employment-related stress. Energy conservation and sick building syndrome • Unfortunately, two of the best ways to conserve energy in buildings (increase insulation and eliminate air leaks) worsens the problem of indoor air pollution. - Increasing ventilation is key to reducing Sick Building Syndrome, which interferes with heating/cooling systems Clean-up • Increase intake of outside air • Circulate a building’s air through rooftop greenhouses • Use exhaust hoods for stoves and appliances burning natural gas • Install efficient chimneys for wood-burning stoves Case Study • Massachusetts Registry of Motor Vehicles. - Constructed in April 1994, the first problems were reported in June of the same year. - These included unpleasant odors, respiratory problems, eye irritations, rashes and other symptoms. • The cooling system condensed water vapor onto ceiling tiles, which were composed of a starch that fermented when wet. - Fire proofing around the ductwork was also wet and falling apart, releasing fibers into the air. • The building was closed after 15 months of occupancy. We can reduce indoor air pollution • In developed countries: - Use low-toxicity materials, limit use of plastics and treated wood, monitor air quality, keep rooms clean - Provide adequate ventilation - Limit exposure to known toxicants - Test homes and offices and use CO detectors • In developing countries: - Dry wood before burning - Cook outside - Use less-polluting fuels (natural gas) Economic Solutions, pt 2 Ch 18: 522-526 The toll of air pollution • Each year, air pollution kills about 3 million people, mostly from indoor air pollution in developing countries. - Air pollution deaths in the U.S. range from 150,000 to 350,000 people per year. - A large diesel-powered bulldozer produces as much air pollution as 26 cars. The Results of Clean Air Act • U.S. citizens insisted that the Clean Air Act be passed and enforced to improve air quality, and the country was affluent enough to afford the controls and improvements. - Negative: we rely more on cleanup rather than prevention. - Negative: Congress has not increased fuel-efficiency standards for cars, etc. - Oceangoing ships have little or no air pollution regulations. • The Clean Air Acts have not done much to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. - Company executives claim that improvements would cost too much, but these estimates are often too high and implementation has helped to increase economic growth and create jobs. Good news/bad news • Six criteria air pollutants decreased 48% between 1983 and 2002 even with increased energy consumption, miles traveled, and population. - Between 1983 and 2012, emissions from the six major air pollutants decreased: 93% for lead, 41% for carbon monoxide, 40% for volatile organic compounds, 34% for suspended particulate matter, 33% for sulfur dioxide, and 15% for NOx. • Release of two hazardous air pollutants—mercury and dioxins has increased in recent years. These are toxic at very low levels. - The EPA estimates that about 100 million Americans live in areas where the risk of cancer from HAPs is 10 times higher than the accepted standard. • Smog levels did not drop any between 1993 and 2003 after dropping in the 1980s. Will emissions cuts hurt the economy? • The U.S. Senate feels emissions reductions will hurt the economy • China and India also resist emissions cuts • Economic vitality does not need higher emissions - Germany cut emissions by 21%, the U.K. by 17% • Industrialized nations will gain from energy transitions - They invent, develop, and market new technologies • The future will belong to nations willing to develop new technologies and energy sources States and cities are advancing policies • The U.S. federal government is not taking action - State and local governments are • By 2010, 1,000 mayors signed the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement - To meet or beat Kyoto Protocol guidelines • California passed the Global Warming Solutions Act - To cut emissions 25% by 2020 • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in 2007 - 10 northeastern states - Set up a cap-and-trade program Market mechanisms address climate change • Permit trading programs harness the economic efficiency of the free market to achieve policy goals - Businesses have flexibility in how they meet the goals • Polluters choose how to cut their emissions - They are given financial incentives to reduce them Cap-and-trade emissions trading programs • The approach of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: - Each state decides which polluting sources participate - Each state sets a cap on total CO2 emissions it allows - Each emissions source gets one permit for each ton they emit, up to the amount of the cap - Each state lowers its cap over time - States with too few permits must reduce emissions, buy permits from others, or pay for carbon offsets - Sources with too many permits may sell them - Any source emitting more than permitted will be penalized Cap-and-trade programs already exist • Chicago Climate Exchange = the world’s first emissions trading program for greenhouse gas reduction - 350 corporations, institutions, etc. - Voluntary but legally binding trading system aims for a 6% reduction in emissions by 2010 • The European Union Emission Trading Scheme - The world’s largest cap-and-trade program - Governments had allocated too many permits • Permits only work if government policies limit emissions Problems with Emissions Trading • The Clear Skies Initiative of 2001 has been criticized as a way for big polluters to continue polluting. - This plan is not a good one for reducing toxic mercury in the environment. • In 2002, the EPA reported that the largest and oldest cap-and-trade program produced less emissions reductions than projected or that could be expected. - There were accounting abuses. • Environmentalists point to deficiencies: - Continuing to rely on pollution clean-up than prevention - Failing to increase fuel efficiency for cars - Not adequately regulating emissions Carbon taxes are another option • Critics say cap-and-trade systems are not effective • Carbon tax = governments charge polluters a fee for each unit of greenhouse gases they emit - Polluters have a financial incentive to reduce emissions - European nations, British Columbia, and Boulder, Colorado have carbon taxes • Polluters pass costs on to consumers • Fee-and-dividend = funds from the carbon tax (fee) are passed to taxpayers as refunds (dividends) Carbon offsets are popular • Carbon offset = a voluntary payment intended to enable another entity to reduce the greenhouse emissions that one is unable to reduce oneself - The payments offset one’s own emissions • Popular among utilities, businesses, universities, governments, and individuals - Trying to achieve carbon-neutrality, where no net carbon is emitted • Carbon offsets fall short - Needs rigorous oversight to make sure that the offset money accomplishes what it is intended for Reduce Air Pollution • Use Scrubbers on smoke stacks to remove air pollutants • Improve energy efficiency • Use Solar/Wind • Electric Cars can reduce air pollution if electricity comes from nuclear/ alternative energy sources Motor Vehicle Air Pollution • There are a number of ways to prevent and control air pollution from motor vehicles - Get older, more polluting vehicles off the road. - Hybrid-electric vehicles and zeroemission vehicles should reduce emissions over the next 10–20 years. - Developing countries are increasing their air pollution with more vehicles on the road that are over 10 years old and are without pollution controls. Car Emissions • The EPA has set new fuel efficiency standards for cars, effective for models from 20102016 - The average for its cars will have to be 42 mpg - Trucks will be 26 mpg by 2016 - If the manufacturers do not meet these standards, they will be assessed a $5 fee per vehicle made for every .1mpg that they're under the standard for Power Plants • Power plants already in existence in 1970 were not required to meet the new Clean Air Act standards. - A 1977 rule in the Clean Air Act (New Source Review) requires older plants to upgrade pollution control equipment when they expand or modernize the facilities. - This has been circumvented by calling these expansions maintenance - The EPA is setting new standards, which may limit the opening of new coal plants Ultrafine Particles • There is controversy over reducing emissions of ultrafine particles that pose a serious threat to human health. - Fine particles (less than 10 microns) and ultrafine particles (less than 2.5 microns) are generally not captured by most air pollution control equipment. - These particles penetrate the natural defenses of the respiratory system. - These particles are estimated to kill 65,000–200,000 Americans per year. This number is even higher in developing countries (300,000–700,000). • Costs to implement stricter standards are estimated at $7 billion/year with health and other benefits of $120 billion/year. Indoor Air Pollution • Indoor air pollution is a greater threat to human health, but little effort has been spent on reducing it. - In developing countries, indoor air pollution can be reduced by use of clay or metal stoves and venting to the outside, and by use of solar cookers in sunny areas. - This would also reduce deforestation. You can reduce your carbon footprint • Carbon footprint = expresses the amount of carbon we are responsible for emitting • People may apply many strategies to decrease their footprint • College students must help drive personal and societal changes needed to mitigate climate change • Global climate change may be the biggest challenge facing us and our children - With concerted action, we can avert the most severe impacts Final Thoughts • There is a need to focus on preventing air pollution of all types in developing countries. - At present, there is an reactionary approach to controlling pollution. - We need to shift focus to preventing air pollution