Download - Climate Change Action

Semi-Arid & Arid Ecosystems
Climate Change : Key Issues and
Challenges
National Policy Dialogue on Climate Change Action
8-9 November, 2010
Chennai
Development Alternatives
Region Characteristics and Geographical Spread
Fig: Arid and Semi-arid Regions of India





In India almost 53.4 per cent land area comprises arid and semiarid regions (First NATCOM, GoI)
Arid and semi-arid regions are characterized by with no or
insufficient rainfall to sustain agricultural production
About 19 % of the country experiences arid conditions every
year (First NATCOM, GoI).
Main crops in semi-arid region are millets, wheat and pulses.
Traditional practice is rainfed agriculture
Source: Velayuthamet aI. 1999
Development Alternatives
Sectoral Impacts



Water
Agriculture
Forests and Grass Lands
Development Alternatives
Projected Climate Change Impacts - Water





Hydrological cycle is predicted to be more intense,
with higher annual average rainfall as well increased
drought
There is a predicted increase in extreme rainfall and
rainfall intensity in Ganga, Krishna and Godavari
river basins towards the end of the 21st century.
Except for the Narmada and Tapi total run-off is
projected to decline
Luni likely to experience acute physical water scarce
conditions
The river basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi
are likely to experience constant water scarcities and
shortage
Fig: Projected Water Availability Status of
Major River Basins
Source: NATCOM –I, GoI
Development Alternatives
Projected Climate Change Impacts - Agriculture





Indian agriculture is monsoon dependent, with
over 60 per cent of the crop area under rainfed
agriculture
Several studies have shown a decrease in the
duration and yield of crops as temperature
increased in different parts of India
With increase in temperature (by about 2 - 4º C)
the wheat & rice potential grain yields would
reduce in most places
Reductions in wheat yields as a result of climate
change are predicted to be more pronounced for
rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops)
Boundary changes due to climate change in areas
suitable for growing crops such as wheat is
predicted
Fig: Boundary Changes for Productivity of Irrigate Wheat
Source: MoEF, DEFRA, 2008
Development Alternatives
Projected Climate Change Impacts - Agriculture






Wheat yields in central India are likely to suffer a drop upto 2 % in a pessimistic
scenario
Sorghum ( C4 plant) does not show any significant response to increase in CO2
and hence these scenarios are unlikely to affect its yield. However, if the
temperature increases are higher, western India may show some negative impact
on productivity due to reduced crop durations
An increase of 3oC in temperature nullified the positive effect of doubled CO2 on
soyabean yield at few places in Madhya Pradesh.
In rainfed groundnut, the studies have indicated that yields would increase under
doubled CO2, and temperature increase up to 3°C if the rainfall did not decline.
Reduction of rainfall by 10 per cent reduced the yield by 12.4 per cent.
(NATCOM –I)
NATCOM –I indicates that in the agro-ecosystems where inputs used remains
low, as in rainfed systems, the direct impact of climatic change would be small.
It is also expected that the response of crops to the added fertilizer would be
lower, as climate becomes warmer. Therefore, much higher levels of fertilizer may
need to be applied
Development Alternatives
Projected Climate Change Impacts – Forests



Large scale shifting and
change of forest biomes is
predicted for India
Studies indicate shifts in area
and boundary of Dry Savanna
in semi arid region
The shift will have adverse
implications on biodiversity ,
forest-dependent
communities, affecting
markets, water supply, and
energy production
Figure: Impact on Forest Biomes (B2 scenario)
Source: MoEF, DEFRA, 2008
Development Alternatives
Vulnerability of Communities



Communities in the region are
particularly vulnerable to climate change
 dependence on climate sensitive
sectors
 limited capacities to anticipate and
effectively respond to climate change
Climate change would have an adverse
impact on food security, energy security ,
livelihood security
Number of factors contribute to adaptive
capacity and vulnerability of communities
such as physical and socioeconomic
factors
Fig: Factors Contributing to Vulnerability
Source: WOTR
Development Alternatives
Biophysical Vulnerability






Arid and semi arid regions will particularly be vulnerable to
climate change impacts due to comparatively natural drier
characteristics
Around 68 per cent of the country is prone to drought in varying
degrees.
Rain is also expected to reduce in frequency but increase in
intensity. All these will result in frequent droughts and floods
Climate change will impact the economy of arid and semi-arid
regions due to increase in overall water stress
Degrading natural resource base and land degradation is further
adding to the problem
Semi arid and arid region have comparatively low adaptive
capacity (agriculture sector) based on biophysical , social and
technological indicators
Development Alternatives
Biophysical Vulnerability
Fig: Drought Prone Areas of India
Figure: Climate Change Vulnerability and
Adaptive Capacity
Source: State of Environment Atlas of
India 2007, MoEF
Source: TERI, 2004
Socio-economic Vulnerability

High vulnerability to climate change due to low social
capital






Very few functional groups and networks
low degree of collective action and co-operation
few sources of information and means of communication
Very low risk awareness related to climate change, water and
agriculture.
Lack of affordable and reliable energy supply - a major
constraint in value addition and income generation
Access to markets is an equally important factor
Development Alternatives
Key Challenges



Water and Food Security
Livelihood Security
Energy Security
Development Alternatives
Water Security




Water stress is likely to be a major impact of climate change,
with flows of some of major Indian rivers projected to fall by as
much as a quarter
Potential impacts of global warming on water resources
include enhanced evaporation, geographical changes in
precipitation intensity, duration and frequency, soil moisture,
and the frequency and severity of droughts and floods
Relatively small climatic changes can have huge impact on
water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such
as North-West India.
This will have impacts on availability of drinking water ,
agriculture productivity leading to food insecurity
Development Alternatives
Food Security





Climate change will act as a multiplier of existing
threats to food insecurity in India.
By 2050, the risk of hunger is projected to increase
by 10 – 20 per cent, and child malnutrition is
anticipated to be 20 per cent higher compared to a
no-climate change scenario
In the past 50 years, there have been around 15
major droughts, due to which the productivity of
rainfed crops in those years was affected
FAO, 2008, report for India indicates that level of
food insecurity is highest for states falling under
arid and semi-arid region of India
Decreasing availability of water and food will also
increase sanitation and health problems and
increase the risk of diseases and malnutrition
Fig: Food Insecurity Map of India
Source: FAO 2008, Report on the State of
Food Insecurity In Rural India
Development Alternatives
Energy Security


Climate change in India will result in temperature
rise and a changing precipitation pattern
All these put together will affect the water
requirement for agriculture which will be greater,
resulting in a higher demand of energy for
irrigation
Development Alternatives
Livelihood Security


Limited options of alternative livelihoods and
widespread poverty continue to threaten livelihood
security of millions of small and marginal farmers in the
arid and semi arid regions
With agriculture contributing significantly to the
region’s economy , it is critical that policy addresses
issues of loss of livelihood with changes in crops, as
well as the need to shift some regions to new crops, and
the associated skills training required
Government Response Measures

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)






National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture - dry-land agriculture
has been identified under the mission as one the important areas
Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP)
Desert Development Programme (DDP)
Integrated Watershed Management Programme (IWMP)
Swajaldhara (The Rural Water Supply Program)
Social welfare schemes

MG-NREGS , Self Help Groups income scheme, Swarna Jayanti
Gram Sarojgar Yojana , Bhoomi Sangragshan Yojana , Hariyali
Yojana
Development Alternatives
New and Emerging Approaches

Need to explore new dimensions to climate change efforts such as
linking poverty alleviation/economic development with climate
change
NAPCC is probably the first official document that has made an
attempt to indicate the linkages
 identifies measures that promote development objectives while
also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively

Emerging approaches include LC-CR , Adaptive Social

Protection ( are contextual and debatable)
Development Alternatives
LC-CR Development – A conceptual framework
Figure: Adaptive Social Protection
Development Alternatives
Unfinished Agenda

Is vulnerability among the communities in different arid and semi-arid
regions across India same or different?




If similar than can similar policy measures be applied?
If different than why?
What are new and merging approaches to deal with climate change in
arid and semi-arid regions generating co-benefits of mitigation,
adaptation and development (to ensure food, livelihood, water, energy and social
security of communities)?
What kinds of systems are required for effective execution of existing
and future policies in terms of:




Institutional Mechanisms
Financing Mechanisms
Further research needs
Role of key stakeholders (communities, private, government, global)?
Development Alternatives
Thank You
Development Alternatives