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The Penn State Earth System Science Center Michael E. Mann Dept. of Meteorology, Dept. of Geosciences, and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute Director, Penn State Earth System Science Center Founded within the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences in 1986, the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) maintains a mission to describe, model, and understand the Earth's climate system. The climate system can be viewed as a complex interacting set of components including the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere. Within the ESSC, we are engaged in studies that aim to understand these individual components, and the interactions between them. We emphasize the combination of modeling, empirical analysis, and exploration of fundamental processes to investigate the behavior of the climate system. This includes coupled ocean-atmosphere climate modeling, reconstruction of past climate using paleoclimate data, the comparison of models and observations, and the study of fundamental processes in the earth system. ESSC Past rapid climate changes since the LGM… Abrupt Climate Change (Alley, Seidov, Haupt) Data from Meese et al. (1994) and Stuiver et al. (1995). 20 year running mean, dO18-temp conversion based on Cuffey et al, 1995 …the initiation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet • Coupled GCM + 3D ice-sheet model • Observed drastic ice growth at EoceneOligocene boundary ~34 Ma • 107-year Model vs. observed Ice growth across E-O boundary: simulations, with gradual CO2 decline and orbital forcing triggering nonlinear ice-sheet growth Model ice sheet snapshots through transition: a 4,700,000 years b 5,200,000 years meters 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 c 5,800,000 years d 6,000,000 years meters 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D., 2003, Rapid Cenozoic glaciation of Antarctica induced by declining atmospheric CO2, Nature, v. 421, p. 245-249. …the possible forcings of mid-Miocene climate changes ~15 Ma ago 1) Closure of Tethys and Indonesian gateways generates MMCO through enhancement of warm water transport to high latitudes 2) Late full opening of Drake Passage thermally isolates Antarctica leading to EAIS growth 3) Or, do changes in pCO2 play a role? (M. Arthur) …the “PETM” Oceanic response to sudden CO2 addition: EMIC Model t = 0 Simulation (L. Kump, unpublished) 100 80 60 40 t = 10 ky 20 0 Forcing: 1.57 × 1017 mol CO2 with d13C of –60‰ over 10 ky wt% CaCO3 CaCO3 dissolution at the PETM (55 Ma) …and comparisons across Geological Periods and Epochs Comparison: Greenhouse Episodes and Observed vs. Predicted Profiles Genesis-GCM annual precipitation (top) and d18O in precip (for a Cretaceous simulation at high sealevel stand bottom), around 90 Ma (D. Pollard) Precipitation isotope chemistry as determined from Paleosol evidence for various Geological periods along with theoretical modern curve (T. White). We further seek to connect climate change on long timescales and global spatial scales with a fundamental understanding of physical processes… …including the North Atlantic Oscillation Benedict, J., S. Lee, and S. B. Feldstein, Synoptic view of North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci. 61, 121-144, 2004. …including the North Atlantic Oscillation European Winter Cooling During the Little Ice Age Empirical LIA winter cooling in Europe associated with an NAO (or ‘AO’) trend due to solar irradiance changes, interacting w/ stratospheric atmospheric dynamics and chemistry NASA/GISS Model Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 21492152, 2001. …and the interrelated thermohaline ocean circulation Delworth, T.L., and Dixon, K.W., Implications of the Recent Trend in the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation for the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, Journal of Climate: Vol. 13, No. 21, pp. 37213727, 2001. Heat Flux and Surface Wind Anomalies Associated with Positive Phase of NAO …and the interrelated thermohaline ocean circulation • Haupt, B. J. and D. Seidov, Warm deep-water ocean conveyor during the Cretaceous time, Geology, 29, 295-298, 2001. • Seidov, D. and B. J. Haupt, Freshwater teleconnections and ocean thermohaline circulation, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 62-1 - 62-4, 2003. • Seidov, D. and B.J. Haupt, How to run a minimalist’s global ocean conveyor, Geophysical Research Letters, 32(7), L07610-1 - L07610-4, 2005 …and the interrelated thermohaline ocean circulation Detection of Possible Collapse of Thermohaline Circulation Observation Observed fingerprints of decadal scale oxygen trends in the Southern Ocean constrain model predictions driven by circulation changes. Model - Observed trends estimated from roughly 80, 00 oxygen observations. Database: (Conkright et al, 2002) - Model “hindcast” from Matear et al (2000). Keller and Min (in prep) …and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics Schematic model of the summer tropics. Chan, S.C. and J.L. Evans, Comparison of the Structure of the ITCZ in the West Pacific during the Boreal Summers of 1989–93 Using AMIP Simulations and ECMWF Reanalysis, Journal of Climate, 15, 3549–3568, 2002. …and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics Response of El Nino to past radiative forcing Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Ensemble mean Nino3 (100 realizations of CZ model) 40 year smooth Palymra coral isotopes (standardized to have same mean and standard deviation as Nino3 composite series) Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005. ESSC Present ESSC Present RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS •High Performance Computing Cluster for Climate Model Simulation purchased in January 2007 through a grant from the NSF IF program (lead P.I. M. Mann), and subsidized with additional funds provided by S. Brantley through the Penn State Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (ESSI). comprised of 64 cores (32 processors, in the form of 16 nodes, with each node consisting of two dual‐core 3.0 GHz Xeon 5300 series processors, 8 gigabytes of memory, and a 300 Gig SAS drive) maintained by the High Performance Computing Group/GEaRS unit of Information Technology Services at Penn State. Initial benchmarking indicates that the cluster is adequate for both memory‐intensive fully coupled three dimensional ocean‐atmosphere model simulations, and highly parallel (e.g. large‐ensemble) model runs. •Bi-weekly “Climate Dynamics” brown bag seminar series, brings together faculty, researchers and students interested in earth and climate system research. •Leverages visits to Penn State by leading climate and paleoclimate researchers •Provides modest salary support for key Penn State research personnel •Support for synergistic efforts such as 2007-2008 “Quantitative Environmental Decision Analysis Seminar Series” hosted by ESSC scientists K. Keller and A. Small. •Favorable public exposure: Mention in a special “Green” issue of the widely read magazine Vanity Fair, in May 2007. ESSC website ranks prominently in the major web search engines (first hit for “Earth System Science Center”, 2nd hit for “Earth System Science”, and the 7th hit for “Earth System” in google searches). ESSC Present RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS •Ongoing development of version 3 of the GENESIS Global Climate Model, mainly interactive coupling to the MOM2 OGCM, and incorporating CCM3 solar and thermal infrared radiation modules into the GENESIS code. Subsequent multi-decadal simulations (multi-millennial with asynchronous coupling) to calibrate and test the new results for present-day climate and deep-sea conditions. One benefit of the radiative change is more accurate greenhouse effects of atmospheric CO2 on thermal infrared fluxes at high CO2 levels. This has supported NSF grants ATM 0513421 and ATM 0310032, where the GENESIS GCM is used in paleoclimate (Cenozoic and Cretaceous) simulations [D. Pollard] •Three multi-decadal simulations with GENESIS v2.3 GCM of the Holocene at 10 ka BP, 6 ka BP and modern, in collaboration with J. Williams (PSU), S. Brantley (PSU) and Y. Godderis (LMTG, Toulouse). GCM fields of soil temperatures and moisture fluxes over a Mississippi Valley transect are provided to a soil geochemistry model, which is then run through the Holocene and results compared with observed weathered soil chemistry profiles in Peoria loess. This work is ongoing as part of J. Williams' master's thesis, and has resulted in two meeting posters to date (Williams et al., 2006, 2007), and ongoing collaboration with Y. Godderis [D. Pollard] •Extensive suites of simulations with 1-D and 2-D versions using the Penn State dynamical ice-sheet/shelf model, participating in the international Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP, http://homepages.vub.ac.be/~phuybrec/ismip.html). The model has participated both in the ISMIP/HEINO (Heinrich Events) and in the ISMIP/HOM (Higher Order Models) intercomparisons. This has resulted in a collaborative poster at EGU (Calov et al., 2007) and has contributed to NSF grants ATM 051342 and OPP/ANDRILL subaward 25-0500-0001-007. [D. Pollard] ESSC Present RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS •Many experiments with dynamical ice-sheet/shelf model, investigating new methods of representing grounding-line migration. Grounding-line behavior has recently been recognized as a serious problem in large-scale ice-sheet modeling (C. Schoof, J. Fluid Mech., 2007, and J. Geophys. Res., in press). Model grids usually do not adequately resolve the narrow boundary layer at the grounding line where there is a sharp transition from sheet-like to shelf-like flow. However, accurate grounding-line migration is likely to be essential for the next generation of ice models in order to predict future acceleration and destabilization of Greenland and Antarctic marginal outlet streams. As a result of this work, we have successfully incorporated theoretical advances by C. Schoof into our 3-D ice model, so grounding-line movement is treated accurately with horizontal resolutions coarse enough to still allow continental-scale simulations. This work has resulted in one solicited talk to date (Pollard and DeConto, 2007), and has contributed to NSF grants ATM 051342 and OPP/ANDRILL subaward 25-0500-0001-007. [D. Pollard] •Monte Carlo simulations are being run for a project (see Dorin et al, 2007) examining evidence for potential anthropogenic modulation of ENSO properties in the paleo-record? [Penn State Geosciences graduate student J. Dorin advised K. Keller w/ additional input from M. Mann] •Ensemble runs of an intermediate complexity model (‘EMIC’) simulations are being used to examine (see Militch et al , 2007ab) the utility of atmospheric, oceanic, and ice-core carbon dioxide observations to constrain estimates of historic land-use emissions and projections of future carbon sinks? [K. Keller] ESSC Present Examples of results obtained using the ESSC cluster Estimate of the climate sensitivity The red region denotes climate sensitivities for which the probability of an MOC collapse by 2150 is >10%. Urban and Keller (2008) Urban and Keller (2008) Triggering a threshold response can occur much earlier than experiencing one. Probabilistic estimate of global terrestrial carbon parameters using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity Ricciuto et al (in prep, 2008) Cobb et al. (2003) Coral Record δ18O values from fossilized coral from Palmyra Island a a Cobb et al. (2003) Slide courtesy of Josh Dorin What are the trends in the proxy record period? • Post-1850 record contains three observations that are at or below the lower limit of pre-1850 periods • A decrease in the mean period from pre-1850 to post-1850 is statistically significant (p < 0.1) for a two-sided t-test and a bootstrap resampling technique Dorin et al (2008) Grounding line migration in numerical ice-sheet models Upper panel: Snapshot from a dynamic sealevel lowering and raising experiment with new ice sheet-shelf model, showing the ice profile and contoured velocities. Lower panels: Time series of grounding line position, sea level, ice flux across the grounding line, and ice thickness at the grounding line, through the 300 kyr duration of the experiment. After sea level is restored to its original value, the grounding line recovers to exactly its original position (as required by previously published theoretical analysis by Schoof). D. Pollard; Presented as a solicited talk at the European Geosciences Union, where results were discussed in the context of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Pollard and DeConto, 2007), and has contributed to NSF grants ATM 051342 and OPP/ANDRILL subaward 25-0500-0001-007. Climate-soil chemistry modeling of Holocene loess profiles Annual mean surface air temperatures for 10 kyr BP from the GENESIS v2.3 GCM. The purple rectangle shows the location of the Mississippi Valley transect where the soil geochemical model is applied. [D. Pollard In collaboration with J. Williams (PSU), S. Brantley (PSU) and Y. Godderis (LMTG, Toulouse)] RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS Calov, R., R. Greve, P. Huybrechts, E. Bueler, D. Pollard, F. Pattyn and L. Tarasov, 2007. First results of the ISMIP-HEINO model intercomparison project, European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria, abstract CR1401TH5P-0021. Dorin, J.N., B.C. Tuttle, and K. Keller, 2007: Testing for anthropogenic ENSO modulation using millennial-scale paleo-observations. Talk at the European Geophysical Union spring meeting, April 15, Vienna (Austria) (2007). Miltich, L.I., D. M. Ricciuto, and K. Keller, 2007a: Which estimate of historic land use CO2 emissions makes most sense given atmospheric and oceanic CO2 observations?, Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, in review, available at: http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/publications.html Miltich, L.I., D. Ricciuto, and K. Keller, 2007b: A probabilistic assessment of historic carbon dioxide emissions due to land use changes. Poster at the European Geophysical Union spring meeting, April 18, Vienna (Austria). Pollard, D. and R.M. DeConto, 2007. Grounding line behavior in a heuristically coupled ice sheet-shelf model. European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria, solicited talk CR150-1FR2O-001. Williams, J.Z., D. Pollard and S.L. Brantley, 2006. Weathering reactions in soils on Peoria loess document mineral weathering kinetics as a function of climate, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H53B-0609. Williams, J., D. Pollard, Y. Godderis, J. Bandstra, J. Schott and S. Brantley, 2007. Interpreting soil profiles developed on loess using a GCM and a watershed weathering model. Abstract submitted to 2007 Goldschmidt Conference, Cologne, Germany. ESSC Future General Circulation Models (GCMs) take into account the full three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere and ocean Projected Future Climate Change Projected Future Climate Change Wagner, Crane, Mann, Freeman DOE (Pending) TC COUNT 20 observed TCs (1870-2006) statistical model (observations) statistical model (GFDL CM2-0 RUN 1) statistical model (GFDL CM2-0 RUN 3) statistical model (NCAR CCSM3-0 RUN 1) statistical model (GISS MODEL E-R RUN 1) # of Storms 15 10 5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 YEAR Thomas Sabbatelli (to begin Meteo IUG masters program Fall 2008, jointly advised by M. Mann and J. Evans) 1960 1980 2000 Fangxing Fan (3rd year Meteo Ph.D. student, advised by M. Mann) Projected Future Climate Change CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Sources of Uncertainty Cloud Radiative Feedbacks CLIMATE SENSITIVITY The ‘commitment’ to future warming Sources of Uncertainty Ice Sheet Collapse Ocean Conveyor Changes in the extent of the region of Greenland over which summer melting has been observed(Russel Huff and and Konrad Steffen, CIRES/Univ. Colorado) ‘Tipping Points’ Surface Temperature Changes Mann, Zhang, et al, PNAS (accepted) Surface Temperature Changes Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004. USE EMICS! Keller, Mann, Pollard, et al (NOAA, pending) Ryan Sriver NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program Sources of Uncertainty El Nino Sources of Uncertainty El Nino Influences Atlantic tropical Hurricanes, Global Patterns of precipitation and temperature, etc. Predicted Change in Average State and Variability of El NIno El Nino/Southern Oscillation Volcanic Forcing of El Nino? Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy evidence for an El Ninolike Response to Volcanic Forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, 2003. How did Natural Forcings Influence influence ENSO and the Tropical Pacific During the Past Millennium? Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Ensemble mean Nino3 (100 realizations of CZ model) 40 year smooth Palymra coral isotopes (standardized to have same mean and standard deviation as Nino3 composite series) Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of The Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005. Keller, Mann, et al (NSF, pending) Thank you!