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Trends in extreme weather events in Europe:
implications for national and European Union
adaptation strategies
EASAC policy report 22
November 2013
ISBN: 978-3-8047-3239-1
This report can be found at
www.easac.eu
building science into EU policy
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ea sac
Trends in extreme weather events in Europe:
implications for national and European Union
adaptation strategies
ISBN 978-3-8047-3239-1
© German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina 2013
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Copy-edited and typeset in Frutiger by The Clyvedon Press Ltd, Cardiff, United Kingdom
Printed by DVZ-Daten-Service GmbH, Halle/Saale, Germany
ii | November 2013 | Extreme Weather Events
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Contents
page
Foreword
v
1Background
1
2
Extreme weather and trends in Europe
3
3
Connections between global warming and weather extremes
5
4
Specific climate extremes
7
4.1 Extreme heat and cold
4.2 Extremes of precipitation
4.3 Storms, winds and surges
4.4Drought
7
8
9
10
5
11
Future risks and adaptation
6Conclusions
13
7Recommendations
15
8Bibliography
17
9
19
EASAC
EASAC Working Group
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | iii
Foreword
During the past 50 years the global mean temperature
at the Earth’s surface has increased by about 0.7 degrees
Celsius, very probably contributed to by increased
emissions of greenhouse gases. The associated
economic and societal risks, the product of probability
and consequence, are increasing. As the releases of
greenhouse gases and particulate matter related to
human activities continue to increase, the demand for
action, despite uncertainty, is growing. It is not primarily
the change in the mean of climate variables such as
temperature, precipitation or wind, or in derived variables
like storm surge or water runoff, but rather the changes
in the extremes of these variables that pose serious risks.
Future extremes could become the most potent drivers of
economic and social impacts.
Having said that, the reduction of the factors driving
climate change (mitigation) has the benefit of reducing
the cost of adaptation. But mitigation and adaptation
measures must go hand in hand. Investments must be
targeted so that risks are reduced, optimising the cost–
benefit relationships between them.
This EASAC report summarises an assessment headed
up by the Norwegian Academy of Science and
Letters and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute
in collaboration with EASAC of historic and possible
future changes in extreme weather over Europe. It deals
with impacts that include heat waves, floods, droughts
and storms. The work, which was completed before
the release of the ‘Summary for Policy Makers’ of the
5th Assessment Report from Working Group 1 of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, provides
expert confirmation from a European perspective.
Highlights refer to the nature of the evidence for
climate-driven changes in extreme weather in the
past, the potential impact of further climate change
in altering the pattern of these extremes, and possible
adaptation strategies for dealing with extreme weather
impacts.
Changes in extreme weather events will, in some cases,
present the European Union and its Member States with
significant challenges. For example, increases in drought,
linked to increases in wind storms, are expected to impact
agricultural productivity. Agriculture has considerable
adaptive capability, but investment will be needed which
will add to the costs of agricultural production. Such
investment demands careful planning and the best possible
understanding of the future conditions to ensure that plantbreeding programmes, for example, are well targeted.
The EASAC Working Group has taken care to differentiate
between what is known to a high level of confidence
and what experts are less certain about, and to give
information about the degree of precision that we can
attribute to the advice for adaptation to extreme weather
and climate change. The target group of this report is
policy-makers and politicians in European institutions who
are committed to the construction and implementation
of evidence-based policies. EASAC intends that this
report will contribute to the debate about the impacts of
future extreme weather on the peoples and economies of
Europe and reinforce many of the messages broadcast by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
We thank the EASAC working group chaired by Professor
Øystein Hov for its expert deliberations and for its detailed
full report, Professor Lars Walløe for stimulating this work
in the first place, the Norwegian Academy of Sciences for
leading this EASAC activity and contributing to the costs
of the work, and Professor Michael Norton for assembling
the EASAC document. We are indebted to EASAC
member academies for all their input and to the peer
reviewers and assistants who worked to ensure that this
report is as accurate, complete and accessible as possible.
Professor Sir Brian Heap
EASAC President
EASAC
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | v
1 Background
Extreme weather can have a severe impact on society.
Europe and areas of Russia experienced unprecedented
heat waves during the summers of 2003 and 2010. In
2013, record-breaking floods affected Germany, Hungary
and other countries. During summer 2007, the United
Kingdom experienced a series of destructive floods across
the country such that defences were overwhelmed.
These brief examples illustrate that extreme weather
may affect lives and livelihoods, agriculture, ecosystems
and cause large-scale damage to property and loss of
life. Independently of the existence of any trends, these
examples also reveal the need for adaptation to today’s
climate variability; extreme weather events are seen as a
part of normal life where societies have learnt to some
extent to deal and adapt. However, whether there are
trends in such extreme events along with a warming
planet is a critical question.
Popular images of global warming are often based on a
mental model of a uniformly distributed gradual change.
However, potential outcomes for a given location and
time may range from hardly any warming to very rapid
temperature increases, as we are currently observing in
the increase in Arctic temperatures. Thus, adaptation has
to address impacts of climate change at local to regional
levels. Adapting to climate change is not just a matter of
average changes but much more of potential changes in
the occurrence of extremes and their frequency, intensity
and duration. In particular, policy making at the European
Union (EU) level covers 28 countries with a combined
population of over 500 million. The EU countries are
spread over several very different climate zones from
the Mediterranean sub-tropical to the Arctic. Changes
in the frequency or intensity of extreme events have
considerable implications for vulnerable communities
across the continent. Given the inertia in the climate
system whereby effects of emissions so far have not yet
EASAC
exerted their full effect, and the absence of effective
measures to reduce future emissions of the greenhouse
gases that contribute to forcing global warming,
adaptation to the consequences becomes necessary and
unavoidable.
The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and
the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, with the
support of an EASAC working group, recently published
a substantial analysis of the scientific literature on
extreme weather events in Europe and the implications
for European policy on possible adaptation strategies
(NAS and NMI, 2013). This was completed before the
release of the Summary for Policy Makers of the 5th
Assessment report from the Working Group 1 of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2013) and thus cites the earlier work of IPCC (2007)
and the IPCC special report on extreme weather (IPCC/
SREX, 2012).
EASAC has produced this overview of the Norwegian
analysis (NAS and NMI 2013) for European and National
Policy makers, as well as European media and public at
large. The first part provides information on extreme
weather events and trends in recent decades as well
as related impacts upon society. It is followed by an
introduction to the scientific background on global
warming and weather extremes, and the projections
of future trends of meteorological extreme events that
emerge from climate models under various scenarios of
future greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, approaches
to adaptation are introduced and recommendations
provided. Readers wishing to obtain full source details for
the figures, tables and references are recommended to
consult the full report, which also includes more detailed
analyses of the climatic conditions in various sub-regions
of the EU (NAS and NMI, 2013).
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 1
2 Extreme weather and trends in Europe
Extreme weather-related events may have great
humanitarian impacts entailing loss of lives, in addition
to the economic and partly insured losses. Data collected
since 1980 by the insurance industry provide one
indicator of trends in extreme events. Although these
are not direct measures of extreme weather events per
se and may not have recorded all perils in the earlier
record, they show weather-related catastrophes recorded
worldwide to have increased from an annual average
of 335 events from 1980 to 1989, to 545 events in the
1990s and to 716 events for 2002–2011. Floods and
the ‘climatological’ perils like heat waves, droughts and
wild fires show the most pronounced upward trend,
followed by storms (Figure 2.1). The analysis presents a
clear distinction between all weather-related perils and
geophysical hazard events like earthquakes, volcano
eruptions and tsunamis, with the latter group showing
only a slight and statistically non-significant increase.
Compared with other continents, the increase in lossrelevant natural extreme events in Europe has been
moderate (Figure 2.2), with an increase of about 60%
over the past three decades. The highest increases have
occurred in North America, Asia and Australia/Oceania
with today about 3.5 times as many events as at the
%
beginning
of the 1980s.
500
The humanitarian effects are exemplified by the record400
breaking
heat waves over Central and Western Europe
during the summer of 2003 and over Russia during
the
300summer of 2010 (Figure 2.3), which led to tens of
thousands of heat-related deaths across Europe, crop
shortfalls,
extensive forest fires and record high prices
200
on the energy market among many other effects. In the
winters of 2005/2006 and 2009/2010 (also Figure 2.3),
100
parts of Europe experienced unusually cold temperatures
that caused travel disruption, cold-related mortality and
0
high
energy 1985
consumption.
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Geophysical
(earthquake,
tsunami,
eruption)
Flood damage
has events
strongly
increased
owingvolcanic
to a wide
— Meteorological events (storm)
range ofHydrological
factors, and
floods
aremass
an increasingly
urgent
events
(flood,
movement)
drought, forest fire)
problemClimatological
(Figure 2.4).events
Flood (extreme
risk andtemperature,
society’s vulnerability
increase because of a range of climatic and nonclimatic factors, with a high dependence on site-specific
conditions and a combination of these different factors1.
Losses caused by floods have increased and the death toll
continues to be high, as illustrated in Table 2.1.
The economic loss burden of extreme weather events
has been considerable, estimated to be €405 billion
1 Changes in flood risk have been caused by socio-economic,
terrestrial and climatic factors. Changes unrelated to climate
change include deforestation, urbanisation and reduction of
wetlands, which tend to diminish the available water storage
capacity and increase runoff. In addition, economic growth
may place more assets under exposure to risks of flooding.
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Figure 2.1 Trends in different types of natural catastrophe
worldwide, 1980–2012 (1980 levels set at 100%; Munich Re
NatCatSERVICE ).
%
500
%
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
— Meteorological events (storm)
Hydrological events (flood, mass movement)
Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Figure 2.2 Relative trends of loss-relevant natural extreme
events in different parts of the world (1980 levels set at 100%;
data from Munich Re NatCatSERVICE).
%
500
400
300
200
100
0
1980
1985
1990
Africa
Asia
Australia/Oceania
1995
2000
2005
2010
Europe
North America
South America
since 1980 (in 2011 values). The most costly hazards
have been storms and floods, amounting to a combined
total loss of more than €308 billion. The most affected
countries were Germany (455 events), France (425),
United Kingdom (415), Switzerland (360), Italy (355)
and Spain (317).
In agriculture, the 2003 and 2010 heat waves and
associated dry conditions resulted in major regional crop
shortfalls. The drought conditions and associated fires
in the 2010 heat wave also caused a 25–30% drop in
the forecast of Russia’s annual grain crop production,
compared with 2009.
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 3
0
1980
19
Afr
Asi
Au
Figure 2.3 Extreme events of cold over Russia (11–18 December 2009, left) and heat (20–27 July 2010, right)
compared with the 2000-2008 average (Figure 3.1 on page 28 of NAS and NMI, 2013).
Average surface temperatures
Land surface temperature anomaly (ºC)
-20
0
Below normal
20
Table 2.1 Floods in Europe with the highest
(inflation-adjusted) losses
Flood date
Country
Inflationadjusted
damage (€)
Number
of
fatalities
November 1966
Italy
10 billion
70–116
August 1983
Spain
2–6 billion
40–45
November 1994
Italy
4.5–10 billion
64–83
July 1997
Poland, Czech
Republic,
Germany
2–6 billion
100–115
October 2000
Italy, France,
Switzerland
7.5 billion
13–37
August 2002
Germany, Czech
15 billion
Republic, Austria
August 2005
Romania,
Bulgaria,
Switzerland,
Austria,
Germany
1.1 billion
Central Europe
13 billion
May/June 2013
Above normal
Figure 2.4 Large floods in Europe with severity 2 (return
period of 100 years or more) and magnitude (index of duration,
severity and area) equal to or above 5 (NAS and NMI, 2013,
page 61).
14
Severity = > 2
Magnitude = > 5
12
10
8
6
4
2
47–54
0
-2
53
25
Source: see Table 4.1 on page 61 of the full report (NAS and NMI, 2013),
where the sources of information are listed; additional data are from
Dartmouth Flood Observatory.
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
•• population migrations that are environmentally
displaced;
•• competition for scarce resources;
•• decrease in water quality;
•• spread of diseases.
Other damage factors related to extreme weather
conditions that might need to be considered include the
following:
•• damage to and destruction of infrastructure:
•• irreversible changes in the environment;
•• effects on biodiversity;
•• inefficient use of land resources;
4 | November 2013 | Extreme Weather Events
In summary, based on insurance industry data (not peer
reviewed), the number of loss-relevant weather extremes
has increased significantly globally and, to a smaller
but still relevant degree, in Europe. There is increasing
evidence that at least part of these increases is associated
with global warming. The number of large floods in
Europe has increased as well as the associated damage,
but evidence linking this to climate changes is weak,
partly because of a lack of data and partly because of
changes in risk management and land use.
EASAC
3 Connections between global warming and weather extremes
The basic science and trends in global warming and
associated climate change have been reviewed in detail
by the IPCC (IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2013) and will not be
repeated here. The robust warming signal projected by
global climate models is already acknowledged in global
risk reports such as those of the World Economic Forum
(2013) and the International Risk Governance Council
(Renn, 2006). An IPCC Special Report on Managing
the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC/SREX, 2012) also
provides a global overview of current knowledge about
extreme weather events and changing climate, and
their implications for society.
The recent 5th Assessment of Climate Change (IPCC,
2013) concluded that ‘warming of the climate system is
unequivocal’ and that ‘it is extremely likely that human
influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century’. The statistics
described in section 2 above indicate that the frequency
of climatological events overall and the resulting damage
are increasing. Recent studies have also been able to
attach probabilities to the extent to which inherent natural
variability is involved and the extent to which climate
change associated with global warming is exacerbating this
(Box 3.1).
One central message from these analyses summarised
in Box 1 is that although no single event is caused by
climate change associated with global warming, all
weather events include a manifestation of climate
change because the environment in which they occur
is warmer and, in many areas, with higher moisture
content than it used to be.
In the basic consideration of extreme events, there
is a need to recognise the effects of a change in the
average value for a weather event (temperature or
precipitation) on the future frequency and intensity
of that event. This is illustrated in Figure 3.1 for the
example of temperature; the figure illustrates that
increasing the mean temperature (the solid curve shifts
to the dashed curve on the right) results in an increase
of the frequency of hitherto record hot days, but also
leads to days hotter than have ever been experienced
before.
Another critical factor is that potential nonlinear effects
associated with extremes may be triggered by the nature
of regional climate regimes. For Europe, these are the
North Atlantic Oscillation and its association with the
position of the Polar Jet Stream in the atmosphere,
and the wind-driven North Atlantic surface currents
(Gulf Stream) associated with the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation. For instance, a shift in storm
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Box 3.1 Assessing the contribution of climate
change and natural variability to extreme events
The NAS and NMI (2013) report reviews recent
studies that allow us to assess the contribution of
climate change associated with global warming to
the probability of extreme events. These analyses do
not seek to relate any event only to climate change
and global warming, but allow the probability that
such events would have occurred in a non-warming
world to be assessed and compared with events
under current global warming conditions. The main
insights include the following.
•• Warming increases the water vapour in the lower
~10 km of the atmosphere; this feeds storm
systems with additional energy which, when
released as precipitation, amplifies the intensity of
heavy rainfall events.
•• Heavy and extreme rain events have been
associated with high sea-surface temperatures.
•• Human influence on climate has increased the
probability that persistent anticyclones may cause
heat waves in Europe such as in 2003 by around
a factor of four compared with the scenario
without recent climate warming.
•• Extreme summertime temperatures are being
experienced that are more than three standard
deviations* warmer than would be expected from
the climatological record. These high temperature
extremes typically covered areas less than 1% of
Earth’s land surface between 1951 and 1980,
but under the current situation these events may
affect areas of about 10% of the Earth’s land
surface. Some of the hot anomalies during 2006–
2011, including in Europe, exceeded three, four
and five standard deviations of the 1951–1980
observations.
•• The relative influence on these extreme heat
waves of natural internal fluctuations is still
under investigation. One model indicates that it is
unlikely that the extreme hot summers in Western
and Central Europe in 2003 and in Russia in 2010
would have occurred in the absence of global
warming and, for a future global warming of at
least 1 °C, anomalies exceeding three standard
deviations would be the norm and five standard
deviations should be occasionally expected.
However, another study suggests that, at least for
Russia in 2010, natural internal fluctuations may
have been mainly responsible.
*The standard deviation measures how far the data are spread
around the overall average.
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 5
Figure 3.1 Effects of shifting the mean temperature value on
frequency and intensity of temperature extremes (Figure 3.2 of
NAS and NMI, 2013).
Future
Frequency
Present
Fewer
very
cold
days
More
very
hot
days
No more/
fewer
extremely
cold
days
Cold
Days
hotter
than ever
experienced
Cool
Warm
Hot
tracks may in principle entail higher storminess in some
regions, less in others, with no net change globally. The
polar amplification in recent warming trends (whereby
the temperature rise is larger in the Arctic than at middle
and low latitudes) has, among other things, manifested
itself as a long-term negative trend in sea-ice cover, snow
cover, and the average position and strength of westerly
wind system at mid-latitudes. Furthermore, as pointed
out in the IPCC 5th Assessment (IPCC/SPM, 2013), the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is projected
to weaken over this century in response to scenarios
of future greenhouse gas emissions. Even though the
strength of this projected weakening is uncertain, such
reductions may reduce the transfer of heat to the NorthEast Atlantic and the Euro-Atlantic sector of the Arctic,
6 | November 2013 | Extreme Weather Events
with potential for local cooling and disruption of weather
patterns.
When we start assessing future trends and risks, we must
also recognise that in a complex system such as the Earth’s
climate, extreme events recur in an irregular mode: the
timing is unpredictable, and extreme events may essentially
be regarded as stochastic (non-deterministic and sporadic).
The discipline of statistical modelling is therefore suited
to describing extreme events. The emerging framework
is essentially risk analytic, relying on information about
extreme weather phenomena and related consequences.
The NAS and NMI (2013) report details the way in which
statistics are used to assess the probability of events, and
how it is possible through risk analysis to understand the
nature of unwanted, negative consequences to human
life, health, property or the environment, as a first step in
reducing and/or preparing for them.
The full report considers the risks of different extreme
events, and examines the following in detail:
•• extreme temperatures;
•• intense precipitation and floods;
•• wind storms;
•• convection-related events, thunderstorms and hail;
•• droughts.
EASAC
4 Specific climate extremes
4.1 Extreme heat and cold
Since adaptation to extremes of heat and cold is
particularly difficult, changes in their frequency,
duration or spatial extent, and extreme intensities never
experienced before would place these phenomena
among the most serious challenges to society. The IPCC
Special Report on Extreme Events (IPCC/SREX, 2012)
concludes that there have been major increases in the
frequency of warm temperature extremes in Europe, with
high confidence in this conclusion for the Mediterranean
region. Over North and Central Europe, there is medium
confidence in an increase in heat-wave intensity and
frequency. Furthermore, there has been a clustering of
exceptionally warm European summers, and recent spring
and autumn temperatures were also exceptionally warm.
Based on homogenised long-term temperature series
at 54 European stations, on average, the length of heat
waves has doubled and the frequency of hot days has
almost tripled since 1880 (Figure 4.1).
in parts of Europe. However, such cold spells are
often associated with the same type of long-lasting
high-pressure systems as summer heat waves. Such
anticyclones can ‘block’ the otherwise natural eastward
propagation of air and weather systems, sometimes for
many weeks, with huge contrasts between longitudinal
sectors. Blocking anticyclones over continents in summer
will be dominated by cloud-free air with strong solar
heating of the ground and exhaustion of soil moisture.
Sectors on each side will often be dominated by persistent
cyclones with cool air and convective rain. In between,
air will efficiently flow northwards on the western
and southwards on the eastern flanks of the blocking
anticyclone. This enhanced meridional flow is the key to
understanding why the same type of regional weather
patterns that cause heat waves in summer may cause
extreme cold weather in some sectors in winter. Persistent
northerly flows may efficiently bring Arctic air masses far
south while, at the same time, sectors to the west may
often experience mild air from the south.2
The high-temperature summer extremes have been
contrasted with extreme cold winters in some years
Recent studies suggest that retreating sea-ice in the
Arctic may have an impact on the occurrence of such
Figure 4.1 Percentage of summer days when maximum temperature exceeded long-term daily 95th centile (top left) and maximum heat-wave duration in days, 1880–2005 over Western Europe (bottom left ). Right: linear trends in ­heat-wave intensity in
Southeastern Europe, 1960–2006.
25
Hot days, %
20
15
10
5
0
8
Maximum length heat wave, number of days
0 0.5 1.0. 1.5 2.0
6
Trend 1960–2006 (º C/decade)
4
2
0
1880
1895
1910
1925
1940
1955
1970
1985
2000
2
For example, the cold winter of northern and western parts of the European continent in 2013 under the influence of persistent
cold air from Northern Russia and the Arctic was accompanied by mild weather over the northern North Atlantic with relatively high
temperatures as far north as Spitzbergen.
EASAC
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 7
Figure 4.2 Degrees of warming projected to occur between
2000 and 2100 (June–August) by climate models (see page 35
of the full report for details).
Figure 4.3 Degrees of warming projected to occur between
2000 and 2100 (December–February) by ­climate models (see
page 35 of the full report for details).
75ºN
75ºN
65ºN
65ºN
55ºN
55ºN
45ºN
45ºN
35ºN
20ºW
2.5
0ºW
2.9
3.3
20ºE
3.7
40ºE
4.1
4.5
60ºE
4.9
Change in º C 2000–2100
weather patterns. Further research is needed to test
these hypotheses, but even in the absence of such
mechanisms, Europe will continue to experience cold
spells even when mean temperatures increase further in
the long term.
Turning to the future, based on scenarios for changes
in energy use, emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols
and land use, climate models project (Figure 4.2) the
following.
•• More frequent warm days and nights: the greatest
increase in Southern and Central Europe and least in
Northern Europe;
•• Decreasing frequency of cold days and nights across
all Europe.
•• Heat waves in Europe are very likely to become more
frequent, intense and longer-lasting, mainly following
an increase in seasonal mean temperatures. As a
result, the probability of occurrence of recent events
such as the 2010 Russian heat wave would increase
substantially by a factor of 5–10 by mid-century.
Extremely hot summer temperatures, as seen in 2003,
are projected to be exceeded every second to third
summer by the end of the 21st century.
•• Temperatures during the hottest days are expected to
increase substantially more than the corresponding
mean local temperatures in Central and Southern
Europe: temperature extremes may rise by more than
6 °C.
•• Winter cold extremes are expected to become rarer on
average (Figure 4.3).
8 | November 2013 | Extreme Weather Events
35ºN
20ºW
0ºW
20ºE
40ºE
60ºE
-0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8
Change in º C 2000–2100
4.2 Extremes of precipitation
Extreme precipitation can be short term (from a fraction
of an hour to a few hours and, in very rare cases, one day),
which results from a strong convergence of atmospheric
water vapour with local dynamic processes triggering
precipitation over confined areas. However, extreme
precipitation may also be associated with large amounts
of precipitation occurring over longer periods (weeks
to seasons) when the short-term intensity need not be
particularly extreme, but the duration causes precipitation
amounts sufficient to impact nature and society.
The NAS and NMI (2013) report suggests increases in
precipitation over land north of 30° N (1901–2005), and
decreases over land between 10° S and 30° N, after the
1970s. Intense precipitation in Europe exhibits complex
variability and a lack of a robust spatial pattern, but
there are more regions that exhibit a positive rather than
negative trend in heavy precipitation, as has also been
observed globally. In addition, short and isolated rain
events have been regrouped into prolonged wet spells
so that precipitation totals in longer wet spells have
increased (Figure 4.4).
For future trends, the capacity of the atmosphere to
hold water vapour increases by about 7% per degree
Celsius of temperature increase, increasing with higher
temperatures. This increased atmospheric moisture feeds
storms on all spatial scales with more water vapour, and
if other factors remain unchanged, precipitation should
increase. In addition, extra precipitation releases more
latent heat of condensation in the rising air associated
with the convergence of moisture into the storm. This
causes enhanced convergence of more moisture, and
a positive feedback, increasing the precipitation rate
EASAC
Figure 4.4 Observed trends (percentage per decade) in the contribution to total precipitation of very wet days.
90ºN
% per decade
-4
45ºN
-2
0
0
2
4
45ºS
90ºW
0
90ºE
Figure 4.5 Changes in spatial patterns of precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of
wet days) over land, based on multi-model simulations from nine global coupled climate models.
Precipitation
intensity
(stdv)
b
8
aa
A2
B1
A1B
6
4
2
0
-2
1880
1920
1960
2000
2040
2080
-1.25 -1.0 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25
further. Consequently, events with light and moderate
precipitation amounts must on average decrease, while
the heavy precipitation events become more frequent
(even in regions with decreasing total precipitation).
the water cycle will not be uniform, and the contrast in
precipitation between wet and dry regions will increase.
Precipitation in Northern Europe depends to a considerably
larger extent on moisture transported from North Atlantic
storm tracks than in Southern Europe, where precipitation
relies more on regional evaporation. Regional climate
model results for Northern Europe imply that high intensity
and extreme precipitation become more frequent; the
increased frequency is estimated to be larger for more
extreme events. However, a considerable variation exists
within the sub-regions (see NAS and NMI, 2013). With the
exception of the Mediterranean region, wetter winters
are expected throughout the continent, but less snow and
more rain. In summer, a strong difference in the change in
precipitation intensity between Northern Europe (getting
wetter) and Southern Europe (getting drier) is projected
(Figure 4.5). As pointed out in IPCC (2013), changes in
•• in general, across Europe there will be more frequent
events of high precipitation and fewer events of
moderate or low precipitation in future;
EASAC
In summary, it is thus expected that
•• over most areas, winters will in general be wetter
(outside the Mediterranean) and summers drier;
•• there will be differences in change across Europe,
with drier conditions in Southern Europe and wetter
conditions in Northern Europe.
4.3 Storms, winds and surges
European wind storms are intense and related to travelling
cyclones associated with larger areas of low atmospheric
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 9
pressure. They occur most frequently during winter.
Data analyses indicate in the past 60 years an increase of
storminess in Europe, with a strong rise from the 1960s
to the 1990s and some moderation thereafter. The extent
to which this is part of natural variability or is related to
anthropogenic climate change is not known and needs
further investigation. Observed long-term variations in
European storminess are not yet well understood.
Figure 4.6 Ensemble mean of the 98th percentile of the maximum wind speed in the climate model simulations. Changes
are shown for the IPCC/SREX scenario A1B for 2071–2100
relative to 1961–2000. Coloured areas indicate the magnitude
of change (in metres per second); statistical significance above
0.95 is shown by black dots.
Climate models examined in NAS and NMI (2013)
estimate an overall decrease in cyclone numbers in the
Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, but an increase in the
number and intensity of severe storms in Northwestern
and Central Europe. An increase in extreme wind speed is
expected for an area stretching from the United Kingdom
to Poland (Figure 4.6).
Severe convective storms may produce heavy rain, which
can also be accompanied by large hail and by hazardous
wind phenomena such as tornadoes or downbursts. These
storms are extreme manifestations of moist atmospheric
convection, and are generally referred to as thunderstorms,
owing to the lightning and thunder often accompanying
storm development. The convective storms can form
organised storm ensembles called meso-scale convective
systems. For instance, a rare windstorm called a derecho
involving a strongly organised line of thunderstorms was
observed in Europe (10 July 2002 in Germany). Currently, the
data available for such summer storms are not sufficiently
reliable to assess recent trends in the frequency of local
hazardous phenomena. Yet, model scenarios suggest that
in future there can be more occasions when conditions are
favourable for the development of these storms.
Regarding storm surges, areas of particularly high
probability of occurrence are the North Sea coast, some
areas of the Baltic coastal zone, parts of the Iberian west
coast, the Gulf of Lyon and areas of the northern shores
of the Adriatic. Climate change may affect storm surges
both through the continuing rise in average sea level and
through changes in the number, path and strength of
cyclonic storms. Global mean sea level rose by an average
of 1.7 mm per year over the 20th century, and since the
1980s it has risen at an average rate of 3.4 mm per year.
Estimates of future sea level rise range from 0.26 to 0.55 m
under the lowest future-emissions scenario, to between
0.52 and 0.98 m under the highest, until the end of the
21st century (IPCC, 2013). Some recent studies project
more than a 1 m rise by the end of the century. There
are significant regional differences in sea level rise due to
changes in ocean circulation and atmospheric pressure. The
extremes of sea level associated with storm surges pose
threats to coastal cities, with millions of people and assets
valued at many trillions of Euros exposed.
4.4 Drought
Drought is one of the most damaging types of natural
hazard over long periods, with severe potential impacts
10 | November 2013 | Extreme Weather Events
-1
-0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75
1
on agriculture, food production and the water supply. In
Europe, droughts and prolonged dry spells comprising an
abnormal deficit of precipitation are relatively rare events.
Examples of prolonged European droughts include the
2005–2006 drought over the Iberian Peninsula, the dry
conditions associated with the 2003 heat wave, and the
1975–1976 drought over the southern British Isles and
northern France. Currently available records suggest that,
although increasing summer dryness has been observed
in Central and Southern Europe since the 1950s, no
consistent trends can be seen over the rest of Europe. The
IPCC/SREX (2012) report concludes that there is medium
confidence that anthropogenic influence has contributed
to some changes in drought patterns since the 1950s,
in particular trends towards more intense and longer
droughts in Southern Europe.
The NAS and NMI (2013) report explains the various
definitions and indices of drought, and that projections
based on knowledge of physical processes expect
increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations
to lead to enhanced evaporation, earlier snow melt and
vegetation onset: three factors contributing to enhanced
summer drying. Thus, a long-standing result from
global-coupled models has been a projected increase in
summer drying in the mid-latitudes in a future, warmer
climate, with an associated increased likelihood of
drought. Summer dryness is expected to increase in the
Mediterranean, Central and Southern Europe during the
21st century, leading to enhanced risk of drought, longer
dry spells and stronger soil-moisture deficits. In Northern
Europe, however, no major changes in dryness are
expected until the end of this century.
EASAC
5 Future risks and adaptation
In the previous chapters, the increase in natural
catastrophes has been introduced with evidence
on past trends and projections of future trends. To
characterise extreme weather in future projections is
difficult because of the spatial and temporal variability
of such rare events. For some areas of Europe, a greater
or reduced probability in certain categories of extreme
weather is expected. For instance, floods corresponding
to a return period of 100 years are expected to
become considerably more frequent in wide areas of
Poland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France and
Italy (Figure 5.1). In contrast, over wide areas of Russia
and Scandinavia, such 100-year events may occur less
frequently.
The NAS and NMI (2013) report reviews extreme weather
potential impacts on specific sectors, particularly those
of agriculture, energy and health, but also transport
infrastructure, water supply, snow melt, flooding,
air pollution, forest and wildfires, destabilisation of
infrastructure in mountainous regions, vulnerability of
wind-power generators and transmission lines, finance
through the insurance sector and other aspects. In
different sectors of the economy, adaptation strategies
to extreme weather events have been part of planning
processes for many years. Current energy and transport
infrastructure, for example, have improved their resilience
to extreme precipitation and consequent flooding. In part
this has been a commercial or operational response to the
experience of past extreme events and in part the need to
plan infrastructure to improving resilience standards.
The concept of adaptation to extreme climatic events
has roots going back centuries; however, when the
climate changes, the conditions to which societies have
historically adapted are no longer the norm, and there
is a need to adapt further. Assumptions about future
operating conditions are a normal part of planning, with
definition of the future climate being crucial to the design
process. It is clearly desirable in future investment to build
in a degree of resilience, but there is a trade-off between
the degree of resilience and affordability, and a project
assessment may need to set the level of acceptable risk.
The critical factor in planning is the frequency of extreme
events and their severity. For planning purposes it is
necessary to understand whether such instances will occur
as in the past or whether there is a trend towards greater
frequency and/or severity. Weather and climate data are
thus fundamental inputs to the planning processes. The
NAS and NMI (2013) report outlines the European research
underway to improve the understanding of impacts of
extreme weather on different sectors of the European
economy at European and regional scales. Out of 28, only
13 of the European Economic Area countries
EASAC
Figure 5.1 Recurrence interval (return period) of today’s
(1961–1990) 100-year flood at the end of the 21st century
(2071–2100).
<10
10–20 20–30 30–40 40–50 50–60 60–70 70–80 80–90 90–100
(the EU countries plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway)
have national adaptation strategies.
The role of climate variability in disaster risk management
was examined in the IPCC/SREX (2012) report. Such
risk management includes immediate response and
relief associated with disasters in addition to long-term
planning, although response planning is part of longterm risk management. The role of climate sciences is
to provide information about the range of plausible
scenarios and likelihoods that should be taken into
account, and inform the modification and expansion
of local disaster risk-management principles and
experience. The geographic pooling of risks through
reinsurance related to food security, trade and energy
production and delivery is one approach for adapting to
climate change on a global scale.
The NAS and NMI (2013) report also reviews adaptation
to and experience of climate change, but points out that
relevant case studies remain in short supply. An overview
on climate-change adaptation (also termed climateproofing) both for existing and new infrastructure can be
found in IPCC/SREX (2012); for example, upgrading of
ports to account for future sea level rise and changes in
storm surges.
Climate-proofing can also include investment in
education, ensuring that the impacts of extreme weather
and action to counter them become better known. The
IPCC/SREX (2012) report also estimated that global costs
of climate-proofing with a 2030 time horizon could
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 11
be in the range US$48–171 billion per year. However,
these figures are quite uncertain, and the inclusion
of such elements and sectors as ecosystem services,
energy, manufacturing, retailing and tourism could add
further costs. The NAS and NMI (2013) report reviews
some of the few analyses available on the cost of local
risk management and its cost–benefit; for example, in
defending Copenhagen against risks of sea level rise and
storm surges.
In the absence of protection, future extremes of sea level
associated with storm surges coupled with a global sealevel rise will significantly increase storm flood risks in
coastal zones of Europe. Although there is considerable
uncertainty on future sea-level rise, it is important to
start implementing long-term adaptation in the coastal
cities located in the most vulnerable areas. Planning
and new coastal infrastructure investments should
take into account the risk over the entire lifetime of the
infrastructures and allow for flexibility, making it possible
to upgrade them if sea-level rise turns out to be larger
than expected. Furthermore, it is necessary to improve
flood emergency plans, early-warning systems and
evacuation schemes. Long-term strategies of protection
versus accommodation (living with floods) versus retreat
are also covered in NAS and NMI (2013).
Traditionally, drought management has been reactive,
relying largely on crisis management. However, this
approach has been ineffective because of its untimely
response, poor coordination and poor reach in
drought-affected groups or areas. NAS and NMI (2013)
indicates a need for sophisticated and reliable drought
monitoring tools and early-warning systems that
integrate seasonal forecasts with drought projections,
with improved communication involving advisory and
extension services.
12 | November 2013 | Extreme Weather Events
Adaptation to temperature extremes includes the
following:
•• early-warning systems that reach particularly
vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and children
(and related medical staff);
•• vulnerability mapping and corresponding measures;
•• public information on what to do during heat waves,
including advice on behaviour;
•• use of social-care networks to reach vulnerable
groups.
The increased future variability in precipitation, in terms of
time, space and intensity, will increase the uncertainty in
the productivity in agriculture, with high losses if extreme
events occur. Additionally, these events and changing
climatic conditions introduce new challenges for farmers
in decision making and planning what crops should be
planted. A general improvement in resilience would be
desirable through, for example,
•• development of soil-protecting farming systems
and water-saving technologies (including improved
irrigation efficiency);
•• breeding and cultivation of plant varieties capable of
adapting to changing conditions;
•• development of new technologies to exploit the
relative advantages of climate change;
•• development of a satisfactory insurance system for
farmers.
Further climate-proofing strategies are discussed in IPCC/
SREX (2012).
EASAC
6 Conclusions
1. Scientific information about temporal changes in
the probability of extreme weather events, their
magnitude and scale, is important for informed social
and political decision-making leading to adequate
climate-change adaptation strategies in Europe. It is
thus important that such information should continue
to develop in detail and reliability to improve their
value to planning and the adaptation-policy process.
2. Insurance industry data (not peer reviewed) clearly
show that the number of loss-relevant weather
extremes has significantly increased on a global
scale and, to a smaller but still relevant degree, in
Europe. Weather events, particularly heat waves
have also been responsible for considerable loss of
life, estimated at around 140,000 fatalities in Europe
since 1980. There is increasing evidence that global
warming drives at least part of these trends.
3. Trends to more and longer heat waves and fewer
extremely cold days and nights have been observed.
It is expected that the trends towards longer and
more intense heat waves will continue with further
warming.
4. Winter rainfall has decreased over Southern Europe
and has increased further north. Recent decades have
experienced large floods and associated damages,
although consistent trends in annual flood maxima
are not currently evident. Future projections suggest
increases in flood risk over a wide area of Europe
owing to increases in the frequency and intensity of
heavy rainfall.
5. Increasing summer dryness, which is associated
with drought, has been observed in Central and
Southern Europe since the 1950s but no consistent
trend is evident over the rest of Europe. Climate
models suggest more frequent droughts in the future
throughout Europe, although flash and urban floods
triggered by local, intense precipitation events are also
likely to be more frequent.
EASAC
6. Projections of future climate suggest an increase in
windstorm-related risks for Western and Central
Europe.
7. Low-lying coastal zones are considered particularly
vulnerable to climate change, especially through sea
level rise, and storm surges.
8. For the production of many crops in European
agriculture, weather extremes are the most
significant factor in the impact of climate change.
An increased frequency of extreme weather events
would probably be damaging to crop production,
horticulture and forestry. Measures are needed to
protect against these effects and to ensure the future
production of food and raw materials.
9. Adaptation is a critical part of societal responses to
the threats of global warming and climate change.
Such strategies are already implemented to improve
the resilience of specific sectors, such as in the health
and transport sectors. However, adaptation needs to
be considered across a wider range of sectors, taking
into account the latest scientific information on the
probabilities of extreme weather events.
10. Most required adaptation actions will need to
be performed by a greater number of individual
Member States, but there is an important role for the
European Commission and its institutions to support
Member States in the development of National
Climate Change Adaptation Plans. In addition, some
adaptation measures will require action at a European
level, such as where there are shared resources or
geographic features that cross national borders.
There will also be a requirement for EU action where
sectors or resources have strong EU integration (for
example agriculture and fisheries, water, biodiversity,
and transport and energy networks). The EU also
has a critical role in strengthening European climateresearch communities and building networks across
borders and disciplines.
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 13
7 Recommendations
Based on the NAS and NMI (2013) report, EASAC makes
the following recommendations on strengthening EU
capabilities to respond to the threats posed by climate
change.
1. Information. Effective, cost-efficient adaptation
depends critically on information about how future
global warming will affect extremes of all weather
phenomena. Further research is therefore required, in
particular on the development of regional models for
predicting possible changes to patterns of extreme
weather. Meeting needs for data and information
requires the development of climate service networks3
at European and national levels.
2. Heat-waves. Given that impacts of heat waves are
highly variable across Europe, further studies of the
factors affecting health outcomes during heat waves
are required.
3. Flood defence and early warning. Good practice
in flood preparedness and zoning for flood defence
across Europe should be shared, including information
about different responses to flood preparedness and
flood warnings.
4. Agriculture. To improve the resilience of European
agriculture, urgent action is required to establish plans
after the approval of national or regional adaptation
strategies. Guidance on vulnerability to extreme
weather and possible measures to increase resilience
should be produced.
5. Strengthen the basis for informed action and
our knowledge about climate. Climate-change
adaptation has to become a continuous process
that relies on continued monitoring of the state of
the climate and the environment. Hence, sustained
observations, analysis and climate modelling about
the Earth are integral parts of a robust and flexible
climate-change adaptation strategy. Knowledge
dissemination and innovation are crucial in helping
to confront the challenges associated with climate
change. It is necessary to continue strengthening
European climate-research communities and to
build networks across borders and disciplines. It is
important that society has free and ready access to the
information on which to base its decisions. Research
management also should ensure adequate resources
for the cross-disciplinary research needed to provide
a more complete account of climate change and its
impacts. Climate models have proved of immense
value in providing the basis for understanding climate
and its future. However, there is an urgent need to
improve regional climate representation in global
climate models to reduce uncertainties and improve
projections, for example for extreme precipitations or
hail storms and other local climatic phenomena that
remain imperfectly understood.
6. Recommendations for society, scientific
communities and science policy makers. There
may be many barriers to adaptation, including
those that are physical, technical, psychological,
financial, institutional and knowledge. For climatechange adaptation, it is important to consider the
range of different factors that affect vulnerability,
including human factors, and to use the best possible
information about the extreme weather conditions
that will challenge this vulnerability. Although current
climate models4 have limitations in predicting future
changes in extreme weather, it is important to make
the best use of the information available, and to act
now, because the stakes are high and adaptation
investments are more beneficial now than later.
The risks associated with future climate change can
however only be reduced by mitigation measures.
These require governmental decisions.
3
The concept of climate services is in Box 5.2 in NAS and NMI (2013).
New generations of climate simulations are designed to provide more accurate and geographically differentiated information.
4 EASAC
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 15
8 Bibliography
A full list of references and citations is provided in NAS and NMI (2013).
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: 4th Assessment
Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. 52 pages. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_
and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_
report_synthesis_report.htm
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: 5th Assessment
Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, 36 pages. http://www.
climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf
IPCC/SREX (2012). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events
and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.
A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. Field
EASAC
CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, et al.). Cambridge University
Press.
NAS and NMI (2013) Extreme Weather Events in Europe:
Preparing for Climate Change Adaptation. Oslo:
Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and the
Norwegian Meteorological Institute. http://www.dnva.
no/binfil/download.php?tid=58783
Renn O (2006). Risk Governance: Towards an Integrative
Framework. Geneva: International Risk Governance
Council. http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_
No_1_Risk_Governance__reprinted_version_.pdf
World Economic Forum (2013). Global Risks 2013 –
Eighth Edition. http://www.weforum.org/reports/
global-risks-2013-eighth-edition
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 17
9 EASAC Working Group
The material on which this report is based was collected by the following experts nominated by EASAC member
academies:
Professor Øystein Hov, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway (Chairman)
Professor Ulrich Cubasch, Free University of Berlin, Germany
Dr Erich Fischer, Institute for Atmospheric and Climatic Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Professor Peter Höppe, Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre, Munich Re, Germany
Professor Trond Iversen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
Professor Nils Gunnar Kvamstø, Department of Geophysics, University of Bergen, Norway
Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Professor Daniela Rezacova, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech
Republic
Professor David Rios, Royal Academy of Sciences, Spain
Professor Filipe Duarte Santos, Lisbon University, Portugal
Dr Bruno Schädler, University of Berne, Switzerland
Professor Ottó Veisz, Agricultural Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
Professor Christos Zerefos, University of Athens, Greece
Dr Rasmus Benestad (Working Group Researcher), Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Professor Mike Norton, EASAC Environment Programme Secretary (from December 2012)
Dr John Murlis, EASAC Environment Programme Secretary (until November 2012)
EASAC
Extreme Weather Events | November 2013 | 19
EASAC, the European Academies Science Advisory Council, consists of representatives of the following European national
academies and academic bodies who have issued this report:
Academia Europaea
All European Academies (ALLEA)
The Austrian Academy of Sciences
The Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium
The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
The Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
The Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters
The Estonian Academy of Sciences
The Council of Finnish Academies
The German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
The Academy of Athens
The Hungarian Academy of Sciences
The Royal Irish Academy
The Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
The Latvian Academy of Sciences
The Lithuanian Academy of Sciences
The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
The Polish Academy of Sciences
The Academy of Sciences of Lisbon
The Romanian Academy
The Slovakian Academy of Sciences
The Slovenian Academy of Arts and Science
The Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
The Royal Society
The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
The Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences
For further information:
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