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Module 4 – Identifying and Prioritising Adaptation Actions Page | 1 1 Expected outcomes of this module 2 Climate change risks can be managed through actions which reduce the likelihood and/or consequences of climate impacts. The purpose of this module is to prioritise adaptation actions that adequately manage Council’s important climate change risks. The expected outcomes of this module are that: Adaptation actions will be identified prior to the workshop through a literature review and at the workshop through brainstorming Risk statements will be re-analysed by workshop participants to determine the potential effectiveness of adaptation actions Resources required for module delivery Delivery schedule Complete following module 3 “Assessing Climate Change Risk”. The outputs from this module should feed into Council’s climate change action plan (module 7) Time At least 3 hours Participants All members of the Climate Change Action Planning Team (including the Working Group and the Steering Committee) or alternatively the Working Group Materials • A computer (ideally with internet access) • Module 4 PowerPoint presentation template • Risk Assessment Tool (includes MCA tool) • Large sheets of paper (e.g. A1 size paper) • Adhesive or thumb tacks to display paper • Marker pens • Stickers (for facilitation of 3.2.4) (optional) • Adaptation action templates • Researched adaptation actions • Workshop Briefing Paper from module 3 • Evaluation Forms (template available) Adaptation actions will be prioritised by workshop participants using risk management effectiveness and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) Assistance Above: Blayney Wind Farm courtesy of The Wellington, Blayney and Cabonne Strategic Alliance Useful references Delivery checklist Module output Workshop facilitation An assistant is required to transcribe the data from each completed Adaptation Action Template into the Risk Assessment Tool Module preparation Resources Expected outcome Useful references 3 Delivery checklist Module output Workshop facilitation How to complete the module The following tasks should ensure that the expected outcomes of the module are achieved: Research a list of adaptation actions relevant to priority risks (prior to the workshop) Estimate the likely effectiveness of adaptation actions Evaluate the quadruple bottom line potential of adaptation actions using MCA Prioritise actions using risk management effectiveness and MCA 3.1.1 Researching adaptation actions Adaptation actions are adjustments made in response to climate change that lead to reduction in risks or realisation of benefits. Adaptation actions can involve technological and infrastructure measures, planning, research and education or a combination of actions. Adaptation usually involves treating risks through strategic planning and the allocation of resources, rather than short term, reactive adjustments. The purpose of this task is to compile a list of adaptation actions which may be suitable to address priority risks. Key sources of information include: Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government (DCC, 2009) Climate change adaptation action plans from various local councils (Australian and International) Resources Expected outcome Table 1 provides an example of the different types of adaptation actions available to Council. It should be noted that single actions in isolation may not be effective but rather it may be best to address risks using a suite of strategies in an integrated approach. 3.1 Module preparation Module preparation Such resources have been made available on the LGSA website (www.lgsa.org.au). Page | 2 Page | 3 Table 1: Adaptation action types and examples (AGO, 2006) Action Type Description and examples Action Type Description and examples Avoidance Avoid or exploit changes in risk: Spread risk Insurance and diversification strategies: Structural and technological Regulatory and institutional Useful references • Use of financial products that off-lay the risk • Geographical diversification Prevent effects through engineering solutions and changed practices: • Increase reservoir capacity • Implement energy demand management measures • Scale up coastal protection measures • Change design of stormwater systems • Build more resilient structures • Install more efficient irrigation systems • Create wildlife corridors Research Prevent or mitigate effects through revised regulations and planning: • Adopt integrated planning approaches • Amend local planning schemes for flooding risks • Revise guidance notes for urban planners • Amend building design standards • Increase resources for coastal planning • Factor climate change into criteria for designation of species or ecosystems requiring increased protection • Improved contingency and disaster planning • Lengthen strategic planning horizons (from say 5-10 years to 20-30 years) Delivery checklist Module output Education, behavioural Workshop facilitation • Migration of people away from high risk areas • Change location of new housing developments • Improve forecasting systems to give advance warning of extreme climate events Research to improve understanding of relationship between climate change and risk: • Improve knowledge of relationship between past and present variations in climate and performance of economic, social and environmental systems • Improve modelling of regionally based climate change impacts • Improve knowledge of the probability of frequency and magnitude of changes to extreme climate events and other climate variables under climate change • Improve understanding of the relationship between changes to frequency and magnitude of extreme events and critical thresholds for individual risks Educate and inform stakeholders about the risks of climate change: • Increase public awareness about the potential impacts of climate change and about climate change adaptation measures • Educate and inform management and personnel about climate change risks and adaptation measures Module preparation Resources Expected outcome Useful references Delivery checklist Module output Workshop facilitation The facilitator should: Consider the priority risks when reviewing documents and adaptation action plans to identify relevant adaptation actions Compile a list of possible adaptation actions and the risks they address The module 4 PowerPoint presentation (template available from the LGSA) The Risk Assessment Tool (available from the LGSA) The Adaptation Action Templates (available from the LGSA) A plan for which staff members should be grouped together to address specific risks in the Adaptation Action Templates The facilitator should: Finalise the workshop PowerPoint presentation by including the chosen risk evaluation framework Familiarise themselves with the workshop materials Prepare printed evaluation forms (template available from the LGSA) Read Box 2 and be familiar with the operation of the MCA tool Complete and print Adaptation Action Templates printed for every priority risk statement. Each Adaptation Action Template should include the following information (in the appropriate fields or spaces of the template): Resources Expected outcome The priority risk statement (in field B) and the associated climate variable (in field A) (from module 3) The likelihood (field C) and consequence (field D) of that risk statement (from module 3) An example adaptation action identified from the research activities (in field E). Further adaptation actions will be identified in the workshop and added to the remaining rows for field E The fields labelled F and G should be left blank (they will be completed by the Working Group in the workshop) 3.1.2 Preparing workshop materials This task involves preparing materials for the workshop, which include: Module preparation Identify which service areas (or business units) the priority risks relate to and ensure there will be staff members from each of these service areas present at the workshop. Prepare a plan for grouping staff together in groups of 3-4 based on their service area and categorise the risks that relate to their service area which they will address (in the exercise under 3.2.1). Try to ensure each group has an equal share of the risk statements assigned to them (if possible). Where a risk relates to more than one service area, try to include staff members from both service areas in a group that will be assigned to address that risk. Above: Mouth of Lake Cakora, June 2009 by Reece Luxton, Clarence Valley Council Page | 4 Page | 5 3.2 Workshop facilitation 3.2.1 Identifying new adaptation actions The purpose of this task is to build on the research and identify additional adaptation actions. Many adaptation actions will be specific to a Council and can only be developed through the knowledge of Council staff. During the workshop, the facilitator should: Ask an assistant to transcribe the data from each completed Adaptation Action Template into the Risk Assessment Tool (explained in Box 1) (as Templates are completed or during a break in the workshop) Check that participants agree that the new risk rating (calculated by the tool) is appropriate and realistic Box 1 – Using the risk assessment tool to determine effectiveness of actions 1. Insert adaptation actions and agreed new likelihood and consequence following implementation of action Form breakout groups of 3-4 people Distribute the pre-prepared Adaptation Action Templates to the relevant groups Ask each group to develop up to 3 adaptation actions for each risk contained on each template and write them in field E 3.2.2 Evaluating effectiveness of adaptation actions Effective adaptation actions should change the likelihood and/or the consequence of climate change risks. To evaluate the potential effectiveness of adaptation actions, Council should use the Adaptation Action Template to consider how the implementation of an adaptation action would change the likelihood and consequence rating of risks. 2. The tool will calculate the new level of risk. Evaluate whether this new level of risk is appropriate and realistic During the workshop, the facilitator should: Recap the risk evaluation framework and distribute likelihood and consequence scales used for the risk assessment in module 3 Ask each group to re-evaluate the likelihood and consequence of each risk assuming the implementation of the relevant adaptation action Develop a unique code for each adaptation action Useful references Delivery checklist Module output Workshop facilitation Module preparation Resources Expected outcome Useful references Delivery checklist Module output Workshop facilitation 3. The tool will also calculate a risk effectiveness score for that adaptation action Module preparation Resources Expected outcome Box 2 – Using the MCA in the Risk Assessment Tool 1. Select the MCA tab on the Risk Assessment Tool 2. Insert agreed criteria and weightings into the appropriate cells. The tool comes with default criteria and weightings. Ensure that weightings add up to 100% 3. Populate MCA with adaptation actions and their risk effectiveness scores 3.2.3 Evaluating quadruple bottom line potential of adaptation actions The process of developing a robust climate change action plan should address the challenges and outcomes of implementing adaptation actions. The process should identify actions that are undesirable because of their environmental, social or financial impact (regardless of their ability to manage risk) and ensure actions are consistent with principles of good governance. 4. Score each criteria using drop down menus. Default drop down options are descriptive of the criteria being analysed The Risk Assessment Tool provided with the Workshop Package contains a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) tool (explained in Box 2). The tool uses six default criteria to evaluate the quadruple bottom line potential of adaptation actions. The criteria and rankings can be customised to suit specific Council objectives. MCA tools are relatively simple to develop with basic Excel skills. The facilitator should: Use a data projector to project the MCA tool to the whole Working Group Facilitate a live scoring session with the whole Working Group Page | 6 Page | 7 High score MCA score 5. The tool will calculate a total MCA score based on each criteria score and their relative weightings. Adaptation actions can be prioritised based on this and their risk effectiveness. 3.2.4 Plotting effectiveness scores against MCA scores Plotting the effectiveness score and the MCA score for each action will help develop a priority list of adaptation actions. Figure 1 demonstrates that high priority actions will be highly effective and perform well against quadruple bottom line criteria. Medium Priority – High MCA score but low risk effectiveness. These actions may be become higher priority through modifications to improve effectiveness Low Priority – Low MCA score and risk effectiveness. These actions are lowest priority Low score Low score High Priority – High MCA score and high risk effectiveness. These actions should be considered as a priority for implementation Medium Priority – High risk effectiveness but low MCA score. These actions may be become higher priority through modifications to improve MCA score Risk Effective Sore High score Figure 1: Prioritisation matrix for adaptation actions incorporating MCA and risk effectiveness scores To prioritise adaptation actions, the facilitator should: • Develop a blank chart with appropriate scales on each axis for the effectiveness score and the MCA score (this can be done on a white board or large sheets of paper, e.g. A1 size paper) • Use the scores for each action to plot action codes on the chart (the codes make the process quicker and easier to read). Consider using stickers as stickers can be moved and are of a consistent size • Once all codes are plotted on the chart ask the Working Group to define clusters of high, medium and low priority actions Useful references Delivery checklist Module output 3.2.5 Administering the evaluation survey At the end of the workshop the facilitator should: Hand out evaluation survey and ask everyone to complete the survey before they leave Workshop facilitation Module preparation Resources Expected outcome Useful references Delivery checklist Module output Workshop facilitation Module preparation Resources Expected outcome 3.3 Finalising module outputs Following the workshop the facilitator should: Thank participants for their involvement and contribution to the process Include the date and version on the documentation. Risk management activities should be traceable and the records provide the foundation for improvement. Section 5.7 of the AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 contains information on creating and keeping records File the documentation from the workshop for later reference and potential inclusion in the action plan Collate and analyse the results of the workshop evaluation and circulate a summary of the results to workshop participants Reflect on the strengths of the workshop and areas for improvement in future workshops and activities Follow up on any issues or questions that were raised at the workshop and not completely resolved or answered Make the PowerPoint presentation and any associated materials available to all staff members Finalise and risk analysis and MCA scoring which may not have been completed in the workshop (possibly involving the Steering Committee) Evaluate prioritisation of adaptation actions to ensure that actions are prioritised appropriately (possibly involving the Steering Committee) Above: Aftermath of bushfire in October 2009 (near Brooms Head, NSW), courtesy of Scott Lenton, Clarence Valley Council Page | 8 Page | 9 4 5 The delivery checklist Following completion of this module, Council should have achieved the following: Task Complete Useful references AGO, 2006, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Government. AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, Risk Management – Principles and guidelines. Identified relevant climate change impact adaptation actions through literature review Yes / No Department of Climate Change, 2009, Climate change adaptation actions for local government. Brainstormed adaptation actions and reassessed risk statements to determine effectiveness of each action Yes / No Climate change adaptation action plans from various local councils (Australian and International) Agreed criteria and weightings for MCA of adaptation actions Yes / No Prioritised adaptation actions using MCA and risk effectiveness scores Yes / No Administered and collected evaluation survey Yes / No Finalised module outputs (as listed on page 8) Yes / No Useful references Delivery checklist Links to useful resources are provided on the LGSA website (www.lgsa.org.au) Module output Workshop facilitation Module preparation Resources Expected outcome