Download climate change in the american mind

climate change
in the american mind
Americans’ climate change beliefs, attitudes,
policy preferences, and actions
This study was conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change and the George Mason
University Center for Climate Change Communication, and was funded by the Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, the Betsy and Jesse Fink Foundation, the Surdna
Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the Pacific Foundation.
Principal Investigators:
Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD
Yale Project on Climate Change
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University
(203) 432-4865
[email protected]
Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD
Center for Climate Change Communication
Department of Communication, George Mason University
(703) 993-1587
[email protected]
Connie Roser-Renouf, PhD
Center for Climate Change Communication
Department of Communication, George Mason University
(707) 825-0601
[email protected]
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climate change in the american mind
acknowledgments
A project of this size, scope, and duration requires the hard work and commitment of
many people. We would especially like to thank C.K. Mertz of Decision Research; Joe
Garrett, Bill McCready and Sergei Rodkin of Knowledge Networks; Dan Esty and Melissa
Goodall of the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy; Gus Speth, Dean of the
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; Lisa Fernandez of the Yale Project on
Climate Change; Tim Northrop and Eugenie Gentry of the Yale School of F&ES Development O∞ce; Bud Ward of the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media; David
Fenton of Fenton Communications; and our financial sponsors: the Betsy and Jesse Fink
Foundation, the Surdna Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the Pacific Foundation.
Last, but certainly not least, we thank our families for their steadfast love and support.
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
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contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
part 1: Should global warming be a priority for the new president and
Congress? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
part 2: Should elected o∞cials, businesses, and ordinary people be doing
more or less to address global warming?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
part 3: Do Americans support policies to address climate change and energy? . . . . 14
part 4: What reasons do Americans find most convincing, either for or
against action to reduce global warming? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
part 5: How many Americans have taken political or consumer action
related to global warming? How many want to, and what prevents
them from acting? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
part 6: What do Americans believe about the reality and risks of global
warming? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
part 7: Do Americans feel well informed about global warming and
do they want more information? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
part 8: Can the world reduce global warming? Can individuals make a
di≠erence? Will technology alone solve the problem or will Americans
need to change their lifestyles? How will this a≠ect their quality of life? . . . 39
part 9: Whom do Americans trust for information about global warming?. . . . . . . 42
Appendix A: Survey Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Appendix B: Survey Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
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climate change in the american mind
executive summary
In September and October of 2008 a research team from Yale and George Mason Universities conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,164 American adults. Survey
participants were asked about their issue priorities for the new administration and Congress, support and opposition regarding climate change and energy policies, levels of political and consumer activism, and beliefs about the reality and risks of global warming.
Overall, the survey found that concerns about the economy dwarfed all other issues: 76
percent of Americans said that the economy was a “very high” priority. Global warming
ranked 10th out of 11 national issues; nonetheless it remains a high or very high national
priority for a majority of Americans. In addition, 72 percent of Americans said that the
issue of global warming is important to them personally.
In line with these concerns, large majorities of Americans said that everyone - companies,
political leaders at all levels of government, and individual citizens - should do more to
reduce global warming. Likewise, despite the economic crisis, over 90 percent of Americans said that the United States should act to reduce global warming, even if it has economic costs. This included 34 percent who said the U.S. should make a large-scale e≠ort,
even if it has large economic costs.
Americans strongly supported unilateral action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: 67%
said the United States should reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases, regardless of what
other countries do, while only 7 percent said we should act only if other industrialized and
developing countries (such as China, India, and Brazil) reduce their emissions.
Americans also strongly supported a wide variety of climate change and energy policies:
• 92 percent supported more funding for research on renewable energy sources, such as
solar and wind power;
• 85 percent supported tax rebates for people buying energy e∞cient vehicles or solar
panels;
• 80 percent said the government should regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant;
• 69 percent of Americans said the United States should sign an international treaty that
requires the U.S. to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide 90% by the year 2050.
Large majorities of Americans also supported policies that had a directly stated economic
cost. For example:
• 79 percent supported a 45 mpg fuel e∞ciency standard for cars, trucks, and SUVs,
even if that meant a new vehicle cost up to $1,000 more to buy;
• 72 percent supported a requirement that electric utilities produce at least 20 percent of
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
5
their electricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy sources, even if it cost the
average household an extra $100 a year;
• 72 percent supported a government subsidy to replace old water heaters, air conditioners, light bulbs, and insulation, even if it cost the average household $5 a month in
higher taxes;
• 63 percent supported a special fund to make buildings more energy e∞cient and teach
Americans how to reduce their energy use, even if this cost the average household $2.50 a
month in higher electric bills.
At the time of the survey, nationwide retail gas prices were approximately $3.25/gallon
and energy had become a major issue in the presidential campaign. Within this context,
respondents also supported a variety of other energy policies:
• 75 percent supported the expansion of o≠shore drilling for oil and natural gas o≠ the
U.S. coast;
• 61 percent supported the building of more nuclear power plants;
• 57 percent supported drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge;
• Only 33 percent, however, supported increasing taxes on gasoline by 25 cents per gallon and returning the revenues to taxpayers by reducing the federal income tax.
Finally, this study found relatively weak support for a national cap and trade system. Only
53 percent of Americans supported the creation of a new national market that allows companies to buy and sell the right to emit greenhouse gases. Further, this proposal was strongly
supported by only 11 percent of Americans, while it was strongly opposed by 23 percent.
The study also identified the positive outcomes that Americans expect if the nation takes
steps to reduce global warming, as well as the outcomes that were most important to
them. Two-thirds said that reducing global warming would provide a better life for our
children and grandchildren (66%) and would save many plant and animal species from
extinction (65%). About half said that it would improve people’s health (54%), free us
from dependence on foreign oil (48%), or protect God’s creation (48%). Of these, the
outcomes subsequently selected as the most important personally were providing a better life for our children and grandchildren (25%) and protecting God’s creation (19%).
Americans’ primary concerns about taking action to reduce global warming were that it
would lead to more government regulation (44%), cause energy prices to rise (31%), or
cost jobs and harm our economy (17%). However, among those who foresaw both positive and negative outcomes, 92 percent said that despite their concerns, the nation should
act to reduce global warming.
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climate change in the american mind
Regarding political activism, 8 percent of Americans said they had contacted government
o∞cials in the past year urging them to take action on climate change, while 18 percent
said they intend to do so more often over the next 12 months – a large potential issue
public. Educating, organizing, and mobilizing this issue public, however, will require a
concerted e≠ort.
Regarding consumer activism, 33 percent of Americans said they had rewarded companies
that are taking action to reduce global warming by buying their products, while 24 percent said they had punished companies opposing steps to reduce global warming by boycotting their products. Importantly, 48 percent – nearly half of the country – said they
are willing to reward or punish companies for their climate change-related activities over
the next 12 months, a potentially dramatic increase in consumer pressure on companies
to act. The primary barrier preventing most Americans from punishing companies that
oppose action on climate change was simply knowledge: 68 percent said they did not
know which companies to punish. Again, translating this willingness to reward or punish companies into concrete consumer behavior will largely depend on the success or failure of e≠orts to educate, organize, and mobilize this large and growing market force.
Overall, large majorities of Americans were convinced about the reality and risks of global
warming: 69 percent were convinced it is happening, while 62 percent believed it is
caused by human activities, or a combination of human and natural changes. Likewise,
63 percent were worried about global warming and majorities considered it a serious
threat, but most perceived global warming as a relatively distant problem that will primarily impact other people, places and species far away. Americans, however, did perceive it as an imminent threat: 51 percent said global warming is already having dangerous
impacts on people around the world, or will within the next 10 years. Likewise, majorities of Americans believed that within the next 20 years, global warming will cause more
droughts and water shortages, severe heat waves, intense hurricanes, the extinction of
plant and animal species, intense rainstorms, famines and food shortages, forest fires,
and the abandonment of some large coastal cities due to rising sea levels, if nothing is
done to address it. At the same time, however, Americans had little to no understanding
of the potential health impacts of global warming. Finally, many Americans said they
wanted additional information about the causes, potential impacts, and solutions to the
problem.
Americans were still uncertain about whether humanity can and will act to reduce global
warming: 51 percent said we have the ability, but were unsure whether we actually will.
Only 6 percent were fully confident. At the same time, a large majority of Americans
(69%) believed that individual action can make a di≠erence, while a similar majority
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
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(70%) believed the ultimate solution will require much more than just new technological innovations – it will also require significant changes in American lifestyles. A majority, however, said that these lifestyle changes would either improve their own quality of
life (31%) or have no impact on it (32%).
Finally, the study investigated whom Americans trust as sources of information about
global warming. It found that 82 percent of Americans trusted scientists, followed by
family and friends (77%), environmental organizations (66%) and television weather
reporters (66%). About half of Americans trusted religious leaders (48%) or the mainstream news media (47%). Only 19 percent of Americans trusted corporations as a source
of information. Al Gore was viewed as a trusted source by 58 percent of Americans, leading both Barack Obama (51%) and John McCain (38%). Following President Obama’s
election, however, it is likely that trust in him as a source of information about global
warming has grown.
Thus, it is clear that American opinion about global warming is solidifying. Majorities
now believe it is real, happening, human caused, and a serious threat. Likewise, majorities want their elected o∞cials at all levels to take more action and support a variety of
policies to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions. Growing numbers of Americans
are also willing to express their views politically and through their consumer purchases.
Thus there is now a large and growing issue public in support of concerted local, state,
and national action, but this public remains relatively disorganized. The success or failure of climate change action in the United States will depend, in no small part, on the ability of leaders, organizations, and institutions at all levels of society to e≠ectively educate,
organize, and mobilize the American public.
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climate change in the american mind
introduction
President Obama, the leaders of Congress, governors, and mayors across the United
States have all signaled their intention to institute new policies to achieve greater national
energy e∞ciency and independence, development of clean, renewable energy sources,
and reduced emissions of the greenhouse gases causing global warming. Climate change
and energy are now at the center of local, state, national, and international policy deliberations. An e≠ective national strategy to achieve these aims, however, must take into account the climate change and energy beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, and actions of
the American people, who will play a crucial role in the success or failure of these initiatives through their decisions as both citizens and consumers. Building public acceptance,
support, and demand for new policies and helping people save energy at home and on the
road will require education and communication strategies based on a clear understanding of what Americans already know, believe, and support, as well as what they currently
misunderstand, disbelieve, and oppose. This report is the second in a series of studies
conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change and the George Mason Center for Climate Change Communication to answer these questions.
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
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methods
In September and October of 2008, a nationally representative survey of 2,164 American
adults was conducted by researchers at Yale and George Mason Universities. Respondents completed two separate questionnaires, two weeks apart, using the nationally representative online panel of Knowledge Networks.1 The within-panel completion rate was
54 percent.
Survey questions covered a range of topics related to global warming and energy, including:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Issue priorities
Policy preferences
Reasons for and against action
Political and consumer activism
Beliefs
Risk perceptions
Desire for more information
Achievability of emission reductions
Trust in di≠erent messengers.
The exact wording of all the survey questions used in this report is presented in Appendix A. Survey demographics are presented in Appendix B.
1
See http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp/index.html for more information about the Knowledge Networks
methodology.
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climate change in the american mind
part 1:
Should global warming be a priority
for the new president and Congress?
The economy was clearly Americans’ top priority for the new president and Congress: 76
percent said it was a very high priority (Fig. 1). All other issues paled by comparison, including global warming, which ranked 10th out of 11 national issues. Nonetheless, 54
percent of Americans said that global warming was still a high (33%) or very high (21%)
national priority, while only 17 percent said that it was a low priority.
Compared to other environmental issues, global warming received more “very high” priority ratings than all other issues, with the exception of water pollution (Fig. 2). Thus,
while global warming clearly remains a national concern, it was a lower priority than
many other issues that were viewed as either more urgent (the economy) or closer to
home (water pollution). In line with these results, 72 percent of Americans said that global
warming was either extremely (11%), very (21%), or somewhat important (40%) to them
personally (Fig. 3). By contrast, less than a third said that the issue was either not too
important (18%) or not at all important (11%) to them personally.
Figure 1: National Issue Priorities
Here are some issues now being discussed in Washington, D.C. Do you think each of these issues
should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the next president and Congress?
Very high
High
Medium
Low
Economy
76%
Federal Deficit
49%
War in Iraq
& Afghanistan
45%
39%
Health Care
45%
35%
Terrorism
41%
Social
Security
40%
Education
32%
Tax Cuts
30%
Illegal
Immigration
Global
Warming
Abortion
20%
37%
13%
16%
1%
21%
5%
28%
6%
30%
30%
28%
3%
17%
36%
33%
4%
19%
42%
21%
3%
16%
41%
30%
1%
13%
37%
28%
13%
3% 1%
12%
17%
42%
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
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Figure 2: National Environmental Priorities
Here are some environmental issues now being discussed in Washington, D.C. Do you think each of
these issues should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the next president and Congress?
Very high
Water
Pollution
Global
Warming
High
Medium
30%
Low
42%
27%
30%
Toxic Waste
26%
39%
Ozone Damage
25%
32%
Air Pollution
24%
40%
Rain Forests
12%
Extinctions
19%
Urban Sprawl
14%
27%
Acid Rain
13%
31%
24%
5%
16%
28%
6%
28%
31%
12%
30%
6%
32%
33%
14%
36%
29%
17%
41%
18%
40%
16%
N=2,164
Figure 3: Personal Importance of Global Warming
How important is the issue of global warming to you personally?
40
40%
35
30
25
20
21%
18%
15
10
11%
11%
5
0
Extremely
important
Very
important
Somewhat
important
Not too
important
Not at all
important
N=2,164
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climate change in the american mind
part 2:
Should elected o∞cials, businesses,
and ordinary people be doing more
or less to address global warming?
Americans strongly supported additional action by companies, political leaders, and individual citizens. Respondents were asked if they wanted their local government o∞cials,
state legislators, governor, the U.S. Congress, corporations and businesses, and citizens
themselves to do more, the same, or less to address global warming. A large majority of
Americans said that corporations and businesses (76%) and the U.S. Congress (67%)
should do more to address global warming (Fig. 4). Likewise, majorities wanted their
local government o∞cials to do more as well. Interestingly, a large majority (72%) said
that citizens themselves should be doing more to address global warming, demonstrating that Americans believed that all levels of society should be part of the solution. By contrast, only a very small minority of respondents said that political leaders and companies
should do less about global warming.
Figure 4: Who Should Act to Address Global Warming?
Do you think the following should be doing more or less to address global warming?
Should do
much more
Corporations
& business
Citizens
Themselves
Should do
more
Doing the
right amount
41%
Should do
less
Should do
much less
32%
30%
17%
42%
U.S. Congress
26%
Your state
legislators
16%
47%
Your governor
16%
46%
Your local
government
officials
13%
20%
41%
45%
5% 6%
20%
5% 5%
6%
7%
25%
6%
6%
26%
6%
6%
7%
6%
29%
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
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part 3:
Do Americans support policies
to address climate change and energy?
Despite the economic crisis, over 90 percent of Americans said that the United States
should act to reduce global warming, even if it has economic costs (Fig. 5). This included
34 percent that said the U.S. should make a large-scale e≠ort to reduce its emissions, even
if it has large economic costs, while another 40 percent said that the U.S. should make a
medium-scale e≠ort, even if it has moderate economic costs. Only 9 percent said the U.S.
should make no e≠ort at all to reduce its emissions.
The study also assessed whether the American public agreed with the tenets of the 1997
Byrd-Hagel non-binding Senate Resolution. Just prior to the 1997 Kyoto climate summit,
the U.S. Senate passed a non-binding resolution (95-0) co-sponsored by Senators Robert
Byrd (D) of West Virginia and Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska, which urged the Clinton
administration to not accept any treaty that did not include the “meaningful” participation of all developing as well as industrialized countries, arguing that to do so would unfairly put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage.
Only 7 percent of Americans agreed with the statement “the U.S. should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions only if other industrialized and developing countries (such as China,
India, and Brazil) reduce their emissions” (Fig. 6). By contrast, 67 percent of Americans
said “the U.S. should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions regardless of what other countries do.” While it is doubtful that most Americans understand the potential economic implications of unilateral action, one interpretation for these results is that many Americans
consider this as an issue of individual (country) responsibility. In other words, if the
United States is contributing to the problem, it has a responsibility to clean up after itself.
The survey also asked Americans how much they supported or opposed a wide variety of
climate change policies, including possible regulations, subsidies, tax incentives, research
and development funding, and international treaties. Overall, there was broad-based, bipartisan support for most policy options, with the notable exception of a higher gas tax
(Fig. 7). A cap and trade market-based system also received relatively weak support as described further below.
Very large majorities of Americans supported a variety of climate change policies:
• 92 percent said the government should increase funding for research into renewable
energy sources, such as solar and wind power;
• 85 percent supported tax rebates for people buying energy e∞cient vehicles or solar
panels;
• 80 percent said the government should regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant;
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climate change in the american mind
• 69 percent of Americans said the United States should sign an international treaty that
requires the U.S. to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide 90% by the year 2050.
Importantly, large majorities of Americans also said they would support policies that
would personally cost them more. For example:
• 79 percent supported a 45 mpg fuel e∞ciency standard for cars, trucks, and SUVs,
even if that meant a new vehicle cost up to $1,000 more to buy;
• 72 percent supported a Renewable Portfolio Standard that required electric utilities to
produce at least 20 percent of their electricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy sources, even if it cost the average household an extra $100 a year;
• 72 percent supported a government subsidy to replace old water heaters, air conditioners, light bulbs, and insulation, even if it cost the average household $5 a month in
higher taxes;
• 63 percent supported establishment of a special fund to make buildings more energy
e∞cient and teach Americans how to reduce their energy use, even if this cost the average household $2.50 a month in higher electric bills.
At the time of the survey, nationwide retail gas prices were approximately $3.25/gallon
and energy had become a major issue in the presidential campaign. Within this context,
respondents also supported a variety of other energy policies:
• 75 percent supported the expansion of o≠shore drilling for oil and natural gas o≠ the
U.S. coast;
• 61 percent supported the building of more nuclear power plants;
• 57 percent supported drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge;
• Only 33 percent, however, supported increasing taxes on gasoline by 25 cents per gallon and returning the revenues to taxpayers by reducing the federal income tax.
Finally, there was relatively weak public support for a national cap and trade system,
which is one of the major policies currently being considered by the U.S. Congress and
supported by President Obama. Only 53 percent of Americans supported the creation of
“a new national market that allows companies to buy and sell the right to emit the greenhouse gases said to cause global warming. The federal government would set a national
cap on emissions. Each company would then purchase the right to emit a portion of this
total amount. If a company then emitted more than its portion, it would have to buy
more emission rights from other companies or pay large fines.” This proposal was
strongly supported by only 11 percent of Americans, while it was strongly opposed by 23
percent. These results suggest that the public remains uncertain about a cap and trade system to reduce national emissions of carbon dioxide.
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
15
Figure 6: Unilateral Action or Only if Other Countries Act?
Figure 5:
Desired Scale of Action by the United States
People disagree whether the United States should reduce greenhouse gas
emissions on its own, or make reductions only if other countries do too.
Which of the following statements comes closest to your own point of view?
The United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions…
How big of an effort should the United States make
to reduce global warming?
40
70
40%
67%
35
60
34%
30
50
25
40
20
30
15
17%
20
10
20%
9%
5
10
2%
0
7%
4%
0
A large-scale
effort, even if
it has large
economic costs
N=2,164
A medium-scale A small-scale
effort, even if effort, even if
it has moderate it has small
economic costs economic costs
No effort
Regardless
Only if other
of what other industrialized
countries do countries (such
as England,
Germany and
Japan) reduce
their emissions
N=2,164
16
Only if other The US should
industrialized
not reduce
countries and its emissions
developing
countries (such
as China, India
and Brazil)
reduce their
emissions
climate change in the american mind
Don’t know
Figure 7: Policy Preferences
How much do you support or oppose the following policies?
(These questions appeared in a random order.)
Strongly
support
Fund renewable
energy research
Require increased
fuel-efficiency in cars
Provide tax rebates for
efficient cars and solar panels
Expand
offshore drilling
Require utilities to
produce 20% clean energy
Regulate CO2
Subsidize home
efficiency improvements
Sign international
treaty to cut emissions
Drill for oil in Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge
Build more nuclear
power plants
Fund building
efficiency
Create national
carbon market
Increase gas
tax by 25 cents
Somewhat
support
Somewhat
oppose
Strongly
oppose
53%
39%
41%
38%
38%
47%
37%
38%
31%
14%
25%
44%
25%
32%
23%
15%
22%
13%
22%
24%
15%
21%
42%
24%
30%
7%
12%
19%
43%
24%
11%
13%
38%
20%
4%
11%
17%
45%
2%
8%
11%
50%
27%
9%
13%
41%
30%
11%
6%
16%
23%
37%
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
17
part 4:
What reasons do Americans find
most compelling, either for or against
action to reduce global warming?
Respondents were asked to complete the statement, “If our nation takes steps to reduce
global warming, it will …” They were then shown a list of potential positive and negative outcomes and asked to select all those outcomes that they believed were true (Fig. 8).
They were next shown a list of all the positive outcomes they had selected and asked to
pick the three reasons for action that were most important to them. Then, of these three
reasons, they selected the one that was most important to them.
They were next shown a list of all the negative outcomes they had selected and asked to
pick the three that were of greatest concern. Of these three concerns, they selected the one
that was most important to them. Finally, those respondents who had selected at least one
positive and one negative outcome were shown their top reason and top concern and
asked, in light of these two potential outcomes, whether the United States should act or
not act to reduce global warming.
Majorities of Americans were most likely to believe that taking action to reduce global
warming would provide a better life for our children and grandchildren (66%), save
many plant and animal species from extinction (65%), improve people’s health (60%),
create green jobs and a stronger economy (54%), and prevent the destruction of most life
on the planet (50%) (Fig. 8). Slightly less than half of Americans believed that action
would help free us from dependence on foreign oil (48%) or protect God’s creation (48%).
Only 17 percent thought that action to reduce global warming would improve our national security. When asked to choose the most important reason among those they had
selected, Americans were most likely to choose providing a better life for our children
and grandchildren (25%), followed by protection of God’s creation (19%), and preventing the destruction of most life on the planet (15%) (Fig. 9).
By contrast, less than half of Americans said that taking action to reduce global warming
would lead to more government regulation (44%), cause energy prices to rise (31%), cost
jobs and harm our economy (17%), interfere with the free market (13%), harm poor people more than it helps them (11%), or undermine American sovereignty (8%) (Fig. 8).
When asked to choose the most important reason for not acting among those they had
selected, respondents were most likely to say that they were concerned that taking action
to reduce global warming would lead to more government regulation (54%), while
smaller proportions said they were most concerned that action would cause energy prices
to rise (24%) or cost jobs and harm our economy (10%) (Fig. 10). Thus, the primary
source of public resistance to climate change policy in the United States appears to be
based on a concern that it will lead to increased government control and regulation.
18
climate change in the american mind
Overall, 39 percent of respondents selected at least one positive reason for action and no
negative reasons, while only 11 percent selected at least one negative reason and no positive reasons for action (Fig. 11). An additional 44 percent selected at least one positive
reason for national action and one reason not to act. These respondents were then asked
to compare their top reasons for and against action and decide whether the United States
should act. A very large majority of these respondents (92%) said that the nation should
act to reduce global warming despite their concerns (Fig. 12).
Figure 8: Potential Outcomes of Action to Reduce Global Warming
Please check all of the answers below that you believe are true.
If our nation takes steps to reduce global warming, it will …
Provide a better life for our
children and grandchildren
Save many plant and animal
species from extinction
66%
Improve people's health
60%
Create green jobs and
a stronger economy
54%
Prevent the destruction of
most life on the planet
Help free us from
dependence on foreign oil
50%
Protect God's creation
48%
Lead to more government regulation
Protect the world's poorest people
from environmental harm caused
by the world's richest people
Save many people around the world
from poverty and starvation
44%
Cause energy prices to rise
31%
Improve our national security
17%
Cost jobs and harm our economy
17%
Interfere with the free market
13%
Harm poor people more
than it helps them
11%
Undermine American sovereignty
8%
65%
48%
35%
34%
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
19
Figure 9: Most Important Reason to Act
Of the reasons you selected, which one is most important to you personally?
Provide a better life for our
children and grandchildren
25%
Protect God's creation
19%
Prevent the destruction of
most life on the planet
15%
Improve people's health
10%
Help free us from
dependence on foreign oil
Save many plant and animal
species from extinction
Create green jobs and
a stronger economy
Save many people around the world
from poverty and starvation
Protect the world's poorest people
from environmental harm caused
by the world's richest people
Improve our national security
9%
8%
7%
4%
1%
1%
Base = Respondents who chose at least one positive outcome
N = 1,572 (73% of the total sample).
Figure 10: Most Important Concern Regarding Action
Of the things you selected which one is of greatest concern to you personally?
Lead to more government regulation
54%
Cause energy prices to rise
24%
Cost jobs and harm our economy
10%
Harm poor people more
than it helps them
5%
Undermine American sovereignty
5%
Interfere with the free market
3%
Base = Respondents who chose at least one negative outcome
N = 904 (42% of the total sample).
20
climate change in the american mind
Figure 12: Weighing the Reasons For and Against,
Should the U.S. Act?
Figure 11: Reasons and Conclusions About U.S. Action
50
100
40
Which of the following two statements do you find the most convincing?
• We should take steps to reduce global warming
because it will (insert respondent’s top reason for action)
• We should not take steps to reduce global warming
because it will (insert respondent’s top concern about action)
41%
92%
39%
30
20
11%
10
6%
8%
3%
0
0
Selected
at least one
positive and
no negative
reasons
Selected
Selected
Selected
at least one
at least one
at least one
positive and
positive and
negative
one negative
one negative reason and no
reason;
reason;
positive reason
concludes U.S. concludes U.S.
should act
should not act
Selected
neither a
positive nor
a negative
reason
Should take steps
to reduce global warming
Should not take steps
to reduce global warming
Base = Respondents who selected at least one reason for action
and one concern from the list in Figure 8; N=953 (44% of the total sample).
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
21
part 5:
How many Americans have taken political or
consumer action related to global warming? How
many want to, and what prevents them from acting?
Politically, 8 percent of Americans said they had contacted government o∞cials urging
them to take action on climate change in the past year while 89 percent said they had
never done so (Fig. 13). Importantly, 13 percent of Americans said they intend to contact government o∞cials more often in the coming year (Fig. 15). When those Americans who said they had already contacted government o∞cials and intend to continue
doing so at the same rate are included, this figure rises to 18 percent who are willing to
urge government o∞cials to take action – a potential 125 percent increase from the current
level of political activism.
When respondents were asked why they hadn’t contacted government o∞cials about
global warming, 33 percent said they do not consider themselves activists, while 22 percent said that it wouldn’t make any di≠erence even if they did (Fig. 16). Smaller proportions said that they are simply too busy (18%), it’s too much e≠ort (16%), or they
don’t know how (17%). However, 21 percent said that nothing prevents them from contacting their government o∞cials to take action. Thus, translating this apparent willingness to engage the political system into concrete action will largely depend on the
success or failure of e≠orts to educate, organize, and mobilize this issue public.
In terms of consumer behavior, 33 percent of Americans said they had rewarded companies that are taking action to reduce global warming by buying their products, while 24
percent said they had already punished companies that are opposing steps to reduce
global warming by boycotting their products (Fig. 14). Importantly, 40 percent of Americans said they intend to both reward and punish companies more frequently in the coming year (Fig. 15). When those Americans who said they were already rewarding and
punishing companies and intend to continue doing so at the same rate are included, this
figure rises to 48 percent – nearly half of the country – who say they are willing to reward or
punish companies for their climate change-related activities. This represents a potential 100
percent increase or doubling of the current rate of consumer boycotting behavior - a potentially dramatic increase in consumer pressure on corporations to act.
Critically, however, the primary barrier preventing most Americans from punishing companies that oppose action on climate change is simply knowledge: 68 percent said they
don’t know which companies to punish (Fig. 17). By contrast, less than a quarter felt that
they could not a≠ord to target companies or that these actions would have no impact on
corporate behavior. Again, however, translating this apparent willingness to reward or
punish companies into actual consumer behavior will probably depend largely on the
success or failure of e≠orts to educate, organize, and mobilize this large market force.
22
climate change in the american mind
Figure 13: Political Activism
Over the past 12 months, how many times have you written letters,
emailed, or phoned government officials to urge them to take action
to reduce global warming?
100
89%
80
60
40
20
0
1%
1%
Many
times
(6+)
Several
times
(4–5)
3%
3%
A few
times
(2–3)
Once
3%
Never
Don’t
know
N=2,164
Figure 14: Consumer Activism
Over the past 12 months, how many times have you done these things?
Rewarded companies that are taking steps to reduce global warming
by buying their products.
Punished companies that are opposing steps to reduce global warming
by NOT buying their products.
60
54%
50
47%
40
30
20
22%
20%
17%
10
4%
5%
11%
9%
3%
6%
3%
0
Many times
(6+)
Several times
(4–5)
A few times
(2–3)
Once
Never
Don’t know
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
23
Figure 15: Activism Intentions
over the Next Twelve Months
Write letters, email, or phone government officials to urge them
to take action to reduce global warming
Buy the products of companies that are taking steps
to reduce global warming
Punish companies that are opposing steps to reduce global warming
by NOT buying their products
80
70
71%
60
56%
50
53%
40
40% 40%
30
20
17%
10
13%
4%
7%
0
More frequently
than now
About the same
as now
Less frequently
than now
N=2,164
Figure 16: Barriers to Political Activism
There are many reasons why people do not write letters, emails, or call their
elected officials about global warming. Which of the following reasons might
prevent you from taking these actions? Please check all that apply.
Nothing would stop me from
contacting government officials
21%
I am not an activist
33%
It wouldn’t make any
difference if I did
22%
I’m too busy
18%
I don’t know how
17%
It’s too much effort
16%
I do not believe in global warming
10%
I would feel uncomfortable
10%
I don’t think it’s important
10%
Someone else in my
home would object
1%
N=2,164
24
climate change in the american mind
Figure 17: Barriers to Consumer Activism
Which of the following reasons might prevent you from punishing companies
that oppose steps to reduce global warming? Check all that apply.
I don’t know which
companies to punish
68%
I can’t afford to do this
23%
My actions won’t have any
influence on a company
22%
I don’t think it’s
important to do this
13%
It would be inconvenient
11%
We don’t need to
reduce global warming
7%
It’s too much effort
7%
I’m too busy
5%
Other
5%
Someone else in my
home would object
2%
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
25
part 6:
What do Americans believe about
the reality and risks of global warming?
Overall, a large majority (69%) of Americans were convinced that global warming is happening, while only a small minority (10%) were unconvinced (Fig. 18). Surprisingly,
however, only 47 percent believed that there is a consensus among the scientific community, while 33 percent of Americans believed there is a lot of disagreement among scientists over whether global warming is occurring (Fig. 19). Thus, many Americans appear
to have already made up their minds, drawing on other sources of information, without
waiting for a perceived scientific consensus. Further, 62 percent of Americans believed
that global warming is caused mainly by human activities (57%), or caused equally by humans and natural changes (5%), while 32 percent believed it is caused mostly by natural
changes in the environment (Fig. 20).
A majority of Americans (63%) said they were worried about global warming, while 37
percent said they were not (Fig. 21). Yet only 17 percent of Americans said they were “very
worried” about global warming, which may be due, in part, to the fact that many Americans believed that global warming is a greater threat to other species, people and places
far away in time and space, but not so serious of a threat to themselves, their own families, or local communities (Fig. 22). For example, majorities of respondents said that
global warming will harm other animal and plant species (62%) or future generations a
great deal or moderate amount (61%). By contrast, far fewer respondents said global
warming will harm them or their families a great deal or moderate amount (32 and 35%
respectively). Likewise, 33 percent of Americans agreed that they had already personally
experienced the e≠ects of global warming (Fig. 23). A large majority (67%), however,
disagreed – another indication that most Americans perceive climate change as a spatially distant problem.
Over the past several years, however, Americans have increasingly perceived global warming as an imminent threat. For example, this study found that 51 percent of Americans believed that global warming is already having dangerous impacts on people around the
world (30%) or will within the next ten years (18%) (Fig. 24): a 20 percentage point increase in their sense of threat immediacy since the question was asked in a nationally representative survey in June, 2004 2. Likewise, 47 percent believed that global warming is
already having dangerous impacts on people in the United States (34%) or will within the
next ten years (13%).
In line with this sense of more imminent threat, a majority of Americans (62% to 65%)
said that worldwide, over the next 20 years, global warming will cause more droughts and
water shortages, severe heat waves, intense hurricanes, the extinction of plant and animal
species, intense rainstorms, famines and food shortages, and forest fires if nothing is
2
Reported in: Leiserowitz, A. (2007) American opinions on global warming. A Yale University /
Gallup / ClearVision Institute Poll. New Haven, CT: Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies.
http://environment.yale.edu/news/5305/american-opinions-on-global-warming/
26
climate change in the american mind
done to address it (Fig. 25). Majorities (51% to 53%) also believed that it will cause more
disease epidemics, refugees, and people living in poverty. By contrast, almost no one (1%
or less) believed that global warming will actually cause fewer of these problems. Smaller
proportions (14% to 23%) believed global warming will not a≠ect these issues one way
or the other, while others (19% to 27%) simply did not know enough to even guess. Moreover, a majority of Americans believed that global warming will cause melting ice caps and
glaciers (74%) expanding deserts (61%), and the abandoning of large coastal cities due
to rising sea levels (57%) over the next 20 years (Fig. 26).
At the same time, however, Americans had little to no understanding of the potential
health impacts of global warming. When asked to estimate how many people currently
die each year due to global warming, nearly half (48%) simply said they did not know,
while an additional 23 percent said none (Fig. 27). When asked to estimate how many are
likely to die each year due to global warming 50 years from now, half (50%) again said
they did not know, while an additional 14 percent said none. Likewise, when asked to estimate the current and future numbers of people injured or made ill each year by global
warming, again large proportions said either none or that they did not know (Fig. 28).
These findings clearly demonstrate a major gap in public understanding of this risk.
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
27
Figure 19:
Perceptions of Scientific Consensus
Figure 18: The Reality of Global Warming
Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some
attention in the news. Global warming refers to the idea that the world’s average
temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more
in the future, and that the world’s climate may change as a result.
• What do you think? Do you think that global warming is happening?
(yes, no, don’t know)
• How sure are you that global warming is happening?
(asked if respondent believed global warming is occurring.)
• How sure are you that global warming is not happening?
(asked if respondent believed global warming is not occurring.)
Extremely sure it's happening
25%
Very sure it's happening
27%
Somewhat sure it's happening
17%
Not at all sure it's happening
3%
Which comes closer to your own view?
(the first and second responses were randomized)
• Most scientists think global warming is happening
• Most scientists think global warming is not happening
• There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about
whether or not global warming is happening
• Don't know enough to say
50
47%
40
33%
30
20
Don't know
19%
Not at all sure it's not happening
1%
Somewhat sure it's not happening
4%
Very sure it's not happening
3%
Extremely sure it's not happening
N=2,164
3%
18%
10
3%
0
Most scientists
There is
Most scientists Don't know
think global
a lot of
think global enough to say
warming is
disagreement
warming is
happening
not happening
N=2,164
28
climate change in the american mind
Figure 20: The Cause of Global Warming
If global warming is happening, do you think it is:
(the first and second responses were randomized)
• Caused mostly by human activities
• Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment
• Other
• None of the above because global warming isn’t happening
60
57%
50
40
30
32%
20
10
5%
4%
1%
1%
Other
Don’t know
0
Caused
mostly by
human
activities
N=2,164
Caused by
Caused mostly
Neither
human
by natural
because
activities and
changes in global warming
natural changes environment isn't happening
(volunteered)
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
29
Figure 21: Worry
How worried are you about global warming?
50
46%
40
30
24%
20
17%
13%
10
0
Very
worried
Somewhat
worried
Not very
worried
Not at all
worried
N=2,164
Figure 22: Who Will Be Harmed by Global Warming?
How much do you think global warming will harm …
A great deal
A moderate
amount
Only a little
Not at all
Don’t know
100
20%
22%
24%
24%
22%
23%
23%
23%
9%
10%
13%
13%
14%
17%
19%
22%
11%
13%
15%
20%
23%
80
8%
60
17%
7%
17%
22%
28%
40
45%
24%
28%
44%
26%
24%
31%
20
22%
22%
21%
13%
11%
10%
Your
family
You
personally
0
Plant and
animal
species
People
People
People in
Future
in other
in the US
generations developing
countries industrialized
of people
nations
Your
community
N=2,164
30
climate change in the american mind
Figure 23: Personal Experience
I have personally experienced the effects of global warming.
50
43%
40
30
29%
24%
20
10
4%
0
Strongly
agree
Somewhat
agree
Somewhat
disagree
Strongly
disagree
N=2,164
Figure 24: Timing of Impacts
When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the United States?
When do you think global warming will start to harm other people around the world?
40
38%
35
34%
30
25
20
15
13%
10
13%
13%
12%
13%
12%
12%
15%
11%
14%
5
10%
0
They are being
harmed now
They will be
They will be
They will be
They will be
harmed in 10 years harmed in 25 years harmed in 50 years harmed in 100 years
They will never
be harmed
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
31
Figure 25: Perceived Frequency of Impacts
Worldwide over the next 20 years, do you think global warming will cause more or less of the following,
if nothing is done to address it?
Many more
A few more
No difference
Many less
A few less
Don’t know
Droughts &
water shortages
Severe
heat waves
Intense
hurricanes
Extinction of plant
and animal species
43%
Intense
rainstorms
Famines & food
shortages
39%
24%
15%
20%
39%
24%
15%
21%
Forest fires
38%
16%
21%
Disease
epidemics
31%
Refugees
32%
19%
20%
27%
People living
in poverty
33%
18%
23%
25%
22%
42%
14%
24%
39%
14%
23%
41%
19%
15%
24%
22%
14%
24%
22%
19%
19%
20%
26%
N=2,164
Figure 26: Likelihood of Impacts
Worldwide over the next 20 years, how likely do you think it is that global warming will
cause each of the following if nothing is done to address it?
Very
likely
Somewhat
likely
Somewhat
unlikely
Very
unlikely
Don’t know
100
16%
80
20%
22%
10%
9%
13%
8%
6%
4%
20%
60
30%
25%
54%
40
32%
31%
Abandoning large coastal
cities due to rising sea levels
Expanding deserts
20
0
Melting ice caps and glaciers
N=2,164
32
climate change in the american mind
Figure 28: Estimated Injuries and Illnesses
Figure 27: Estimated Fatalities
Now please think about the human health effects of global warming.
(Please choose the answer corresponding to your best estimate.)
Worldwide, how many people do you think…
• Are currently injured or become ill each year due to global warming?
• Will be injured or become ill each year 50 years from now due to
global warming?
Now please think about the human health effects of global warming.
(Please choose the answer corresponding to your best estimate.)
Worldwide, how many people do you think…
• Currently die each year due to global warming?
• Will die each year 50 years from now due to global warming?
Millions
Thousands
Hundreds
None
Millions
Don’t know
Thousands
Hundreds
None
Don’t know
100
100
48%
50%
46%
80
80
60
60
23%
50%
21%
14%
15%
40
40
8%
8%
13%
12%
17%
20
15%
20
15%
14%
13%
11%
3%
0
Current
N=2,164
5%
0
Current
In 50 years
In 50 years
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
33
part 7:
Do Americans feel well informed about global
warming and do they want more information?
The survey also assessed whether Americans felt well informed about climate change,
how much they had thought about it or discussed it with family and friends, whether
they desired more information, and how easily they could change their minds. Overall,
the results suggest that national opinions about global warming are in the process of solidifying, yet many Americans still want additional information about the causes, potential impacts, and solutions to the problem.
Majorities of Americans said that they were fairly to very well informed about the di≠erent
causes (62%), consequences (62%), and solutions to global warming (65%) (Fig. 29).
However, only 11 to 12 percent said that they were very well informed about these. Similarly, only 20 percent of Americans said they had thought a lot about global warming,
with another 35 percent that said they had thought about it some (Fig. 30). Another 45
percent, however, had either not thought about it at all (12%) or just a little (33%). Likewise, most Americans reported that they rarely (33%) or never (27%) discuss global
warming with their family and friends, while only 5 percent said they discuss it very often
(Fig. 31). Further, most Americans (64%) said that they had not spoken to anyone about
global warming in the prior two weeks – another indication that while global warming
remains a national priority, it is not part of everyday conversation for most Americans
(Fig. 32).
Respondents were also asked how much more information they would need in order to
form a firm opinion about global warming. More than half said that they either needed
“a lot more” (30%) or “some more” information (30%), while only 18 percent said they
did not need any more information at all (Fig. 33). Although many Americans said they
would like more information about global warming, most felt relatively certain about
their beliefs nonetheless. Only 5 percent strongly agreed that they could easily change
their mind about global warming, with another 28 percent that somewhat agreed (Fig.
34). By contrast, 34 percent strongly disagreed that they could change their minds, while
another 34 percent somewhat disagreed. Thus 68 percent of Americans felt relatively certain about their current beliefs, again suggesting that public opinion about this issue is
solidifying, although many are still open and want to learn more.
34
climate change in the american mind
Figure 29: Self-Assessed Knowledge of Global Warming
Personally, do you think that you are well informed or not about…
• The different causes of global warming
• The different consequences of global warming
• Ways in which we can reduce global warming
Very well
informed
Fairly well
informed
Not very well Not at all
informed
informed
100
9%
9%
8%
29%
30%
27%
51%
50%
11%
12%
12%
Causes
Consequences
Ways to reduce
80
60
53%
40
20
0
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
35
Figure 30: Thought Devoted to Global Warming
Figure 31: Frequency of Discussion
How much had you thought about global warming before today?
How often do you discuss global warming with your family and friends?
35
40
35%
33%
30
35
36%
33%
30
25
27%
25
20
20%
20
15
15
12%
10
10
5
5
5%
0
0
A lot
N=2,164
36
Some
A little
Not at all
Very often
Occasionally
Rarely
Never
N=2,164
climate change in the american mind
Figure 33: Need for Information
On some issues people feel that they have all the information
they need in order to form a firm opinion, while on other issues
they would like more information before making up their mind.
For global warming, where would you place yourself?
Figure 32: Number of Discussions
How many people have you spoken with about global warming
in the past two weeks?
30
80
30%
70
30%
25
64%
60
22%
20
50
18%
15
40
30
31%
10
20
5
10
2%
3%
More than 10
5 to 10
0
0
N=2,164
1 to 4
0
I need
a lot more
information
I need
some more
information
I need
a little more
information
I do not need
any more
information
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
37
Figure 34: Certainty of Opinion
I could easily change my mind about global warming.
35
34%
34%
Somewhat
disagree
Strongly
disagree
30
28%
25
20
15
10
5
5%
0
Strongly
agree
Somewhat
agree
N=2,164
38
climate change in the american mind
part 8:
Can the world reduce global warming? Can individuals
make a di≠erence? Will technology alone solve the
problem or will Americans need to change their
lifestyles? How will this a≠ect their quality of life?
The survey also investigated whether Americans believed it is possible to reduce global
warming and whether the world will actually do it. Only 6 percent of Americans said
they were confident that humanity can and will reduce global warming successfully (Fig.
35). Over half (51%) were unsure and said that while humanity could reduce global warming, it is still unclear at this point whether we will do what is needed. By contrast, 22 percent said that even though humanity could reduce global warming, people are not willing
to change their behavior, so the world is not going to act. Finally, 16 percent said that
even if global warming is happening, humans cannot reduce it, while a smaller 5 percent
simply said that global warming is not happening. Thus Americans appear relatively split
between hope on the one hand and pessimism on the other.
At the same time, however, most Americans believed that individual action can make a
di≠erence. A large majority (69%) somewhat to strongly disagreed with the fatalistic
statement, “The actions of a single person won’t make any di≠erence in global warming”
(Fig. 36). Finally, most Americans did not believe that technology alone can solve the
problem. Only 30 percent strongly (4%) or somewhat agreed (26%) with the statement:
“New technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big
changes to their lives” (Fig. 37). Thus 70 percent of Americans expected that the ultimate
solution will require much more than just new technological innovations – it will also require significant changes in our lifestyles.
Respondents were then asked whether changing their own lifestyle to reduce their personal contribution to global warming would a≠ect their quality of life. Nearly a third
(31%) of Americans said that lifestyle changes to reduce global warming would actually
improve their quality of life, while another third (32%) said these changes would have no
impact (Fig. 38).
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
39
Figure 35: Can and Will the World Reduce Global Warming?
Which of the following statements comes closest to your view?
60
50
51%
40
30
20
22%
16%
10
6%
5%
0
Humans can
reduce global
warming, and
we are going to
do so successfully
Humans could
reduce global
warming, but
it's unclear at
this point whether
we will do
what's needed
N=2,164
Humans could
reduce global
warming, but
people aren't
willing to change
their behavior, so
we're not going to
Humans can't
reduce global
warming, even if
it is happening
Global warming
isn't happening
Figure 36: Can Individuals Make a Difference?
The actions of a single person won’t make any difference
in global warming.
50
45%
40
30
20
24%
22%
10
9%
0
Strongly
agree
Somewhat
agree
Somewhat
disagree
Strongly
disagree
N=2,164
40
climate change in the american mind
Figure 37: Will Technology Alone
Solve the Problem?
New technologies can solve global warming, without individuals
having to make big changes in their lives.
50
46%
40
30
26%
25%
20
10
4%
0
Strongly
agree
Somewhat
agree
Somewhat
disagree
Strongly
disagree
N=2,164
Figure 38: How Would Lifestyle Changes to Reduce
Global Warming Affect Your Quality of Life?
If you were to change your lifestyle to reduce your personal contribution to global warming,
how do you think it would it affect your quality of life?
35
32%
30
25
25%
20
19%
15
10
12%
9%
5
3%
0
Improve my
quality of life
a lot
Improve my
quality of life
a little
Have no
impact on my
quality of life
Decrease my
quality of life
a little
Decrease my
quality of life
a lot
I don’t know
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
41
part 9:
Whom do Americans trust
for information about global warming?
Global warming joins a long list of other hazards of the modern world that are scientifically complex and uncertain, and about which most people know relatively little. Which
risks should one be concerned about? How high of a priority are they? What should individuals and societies do about them? In these situations, many individuals look to
trusted individuals, organizations, or institutions to help guide them through an uncertain landscape. Thus, the messenger is often just as important (if not more so) than the
message itself.
Overall, the study found that 82 percent of Americans trusted scientists (Fig. 39), followed by family and friends (77%), environmental organizations (66%) and television
weather reporters (66%) as a source of information about global warming. About half of
Americans trusted religious leaders (48%) or the mainstream news media (47%). Only
19 percent of Americans, however, trusted corporations as a source of information, while
33 percent strongly distrusted them. Al Gore was trusted by 58 percent of Americans,
leading both Barack Obama (51%) and John McCain (38%). Following President Obama’s
election, however, it is likely that trust in him as a source of information about global
warming has grown.
42
climate change in the american mind
Figure 39: Trust
How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of information about global warming?
(randomized)
Strongly
trust
Scientists
28%
Environmental
organizations
17%
Al Gore
15%
Barack Obama
14%
Family
and friends
Television
weather reporters
Religious
leaders
13%
Somewhat
trust
Somewhat
distrust
Strongly
distrust
54%
49%
20%
43%
22%
23%
26%
64%
60%
5%
43%
John McCain 4%
The mainstream 4%
news media
37%
43%
18%
4%
10%
22%
25%
33%
49%
19%
25%
30%
34%
4%
14%
20%
37%
6%
Corporations
14%
20%
33%
1%
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
43
appendix a:
Survey questions
note: Questions used in this report are selected from a longer survey containing over 300
questions. The question order shown below follows the results presented in this report
and does not correspond to the order in which these questions were asked.
1. Here are some issues now being discussed in Washington, D.C. Do you think each of
these issues should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the next president and Congress? (randomized; results shown in Figure 1)
• Education
• Health care
• Social Security
• The federal budget deficit
• Terrorism
• Global warming
• Tax cuts
• The economy
• Illegal immigration
• The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
• Abortion
2. Here are some environmental issues now being discussed in Washington, D.C. Do
you think each of these issues should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for
the next president and Congress? (randomized; results in Figure 2)
• Water pollution
• Toxic waste
• Air pollution
• Damage to the earth’s ozone layer
• Loss of tropical rain forests
• Extinction of plant and animal species
• Urban sprawl and loss of open spaces
• Global warming
• Acid rain
3. How important is the issue of global warming to you personally? (Figure 3)
• Not at all important
• Not too important
• Somewhat important
• Very important
• Extremely important
44
climate change in the american mind
4. Do you think the following should be doing more or less to address global warming?
Response options: Much less; less; currently doing the right amount; more; much
more (Figure 4)
• Your local government o∞cials
• Your state legislators
• Your Governor
• The U.S. Congress
• Corporations and industry
• Citizens themselves
5. How big of an e≠ort should the United States make to reduce global warming? (Figure 5)
• No e≠ort
• A small-scale e≠ort, even if it has small economic costs
• A medium-scale e≠ort, even if it has moderate economic costs
• A large-scale e≠ort, even if it has large economic costs
6. People disagree whether the United States should reduce greenhouse gas emissions on
its own, or make reductions only if other countries do too. Which of the following
statements comes closest to your own point of view? (Figure 6)
The United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions…
• Regardless of what other countries do
• Only if other industrialized countries (such as England, Germany and Japan) reduce their emissions
• Only if other industrialized countries and developing countries (such as China,
India and Brazil) reduce their emissions
• The US should not reduce its emissions
• Don’t know
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
45
7. How much do you support or oppose the following policies? (Response options: Strongly
support; somewhat support; somewhat oppose; strongly oppose; randomized; Figure 7)
Policies that Would Increase Energy and Fuel Efficiency:
• Require automakers to increase the fuel e∞ciency of cars, trucks, and SUVS, to 45
mpg, even if it means a new vehicle will cost up to $1,000 more to buy.
• Provide tax rebates for people who purchase energy-e∞cient vehicles or solar panels.
• Provide a government subsidy to replace old water heaters, air conditioners, light
bulbs, and insulation. This subsidy would cost the average household $5 a month
in higher taxes. Those who took advantage of the program would save money on
their utility bills.
• Establish a special fund to help make buildings more energy e∞cient and teach
Americans how to reduce their energy use. This would add a $2.50 surcharge to
the average household’s monthly electric bill.
Policies to Establish Regulations and International Treaties
• Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant.
• Sign an international treaty that requires the United States to cut its emissions of
carbon dioxide 90% by the year 2050.
Policies that Would Support Renewable Energy
• Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from wind, solar,
or other renewable energy sources, even if it cost the average household an extra
$100 a year.
• Fund more research into renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.
Policies that Would Put a Price on Carbon
• Create a new national market that allows companies to buy and sell the right to
emit the greenhouse gases said to cause global warming. The federal government
would set a national cap on emissions. Each company would then purchase the
right to emit a portion of this total amount. If a company then emitted more than
its portion, it would have to buy more emission rights from other companies or
pay large fines.
• Increase taxes on gasoline by 25 cents per gallon and return the revenues to taxpayers by reducing the federal income tax.
Policies that Would Exploit Existing Energy Sources
• Expand o≠shore drilling for oil and natural gas o≠ the U.S. coast.
• Drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
• Build more nuclear power plants.
46
climate change in the american mind
8. Please check all of the answers below that you believe are true.
If our nation takes steps to reduce global warming, it will … (Randomized; results shown
in Figure 8.)
• Help free us from dependence on foreign oil
• Improve people’s health
• Improve our national security
• Create green jobs and a stronger economy
• Save many plant and animal species from extinction
• Protect God’s creation
• Save many people around the world from poverty and starvation
• Provide a better life for our children and grandchildren
• Prevent the destruction of most life on the planet
• Protect the world’s poorest people from harm caused by the world’s richest people
• Cost jobs and harm our economy
• Lead to more government regulation
• Undermine American sovereignty
• Cause energy prices to rise
• Interfere with the free market
• Harm poor people more than it helps them
• Other [ text box]
• Refusal
9. Which of the following reasons to reduce global warming are most important to you?
Please select up to three [if only two responses were chosen, the screen said “two”] reasons. (Question was asked of respondents who had selected more than one positive
outcome. Results not presented.)
10.Of the reasons you selected, which one is most important to you personally? (Positive
outcomes from Question 9 were displayed; Figure 9)
11. Which of the following things that might result from taking steps to reduce global
warming are of the greatest concern to you? Please select up to three [if only two negative outcomes were chosen, screen said “two”] things. (Question was asked of respondents who had selected more than one negative outcome. Results not presented.)
12. Of the things you selected which one is of greatest concern to you personally? (Figure
10)
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
47
13. Which of the following two statements do you find the most convincing? (Figures 11
& 12)
• We should not take steps to reduce global warming because it will [insert respondent’s top reason for action]
• We should take steps to reduce global warming because it will [insert respondent’s
top concern about acting]
14.Over the past 12 months, how many times have you done each of the following? (Response options: Never; once; a few times; several times; many times; don’t know. Results in
Figure 13.)
• Written letters, emailed, or phoned government o∞cials to urge them to take action to reduce global warming?
15. Over the past 12 months, how many times have you done these things? (Response options: Never; once; a few times; several times; many times; don’t know. Results in Figure
14.)
• Rewarded companies that are taking steps to reduce global warming by buying
their products.
• Punished companies that are opposing steps to reduce global warming by NOT
buying their products.
16.Over the next 12 months, would you like to do each of the following…. (Response options: Less frequently, about the same, more frequently. Results in Figure 15.)
• Write letters, email, or phone government o∞cials to urge them to take action to
reduce global warming?
17. Over the next 12 months, would you like to punish companies that are opposing steps
to reduce global warming by NOT buying their products… (Response options: Less frequently, about the same, more frequently. Results in Figure 15.)
18.Over the next 12 months do you intend to buy the products of companies that are taking steps to reduce global warming… (Response options: Less frequently, about the same,
more frequently. Results in Figure 15.)
48
climate change in the american mind
19. There are many reasons why people do not write letters, emails, or call their elected
o∞cials about global warming. Which of the following reasons might prevent you
from taking these actions? Please check all that apply. (Figure 16)
• It’s too much e≠ort
• I would feel uncomfortable
• It wouldn’t make any di≠erence if I did
• I don’t know how
• I’m too busy
• Someone else in my home would object
• I don’t think it’s important
• I am not an activist
• I do not believe in global warming
• Other [text box]
• None of the above would prevent me from doing this
20.Which of the following reasons might prevent you from punishing companies that oppose steps to reduce global warming? Check all that apply. (Figure 17)
• I don’t know which companies to punish
• I can’t a≠ord to do this
• My actions won’t have any influence on a company
• It would be inconvenient
• It’s too much e≠ort
• I’m too busy
• Someone else in my home would object if I did this
• I don’t think it’s important to do this
• We don’t need to reduce global warming
• Other [text box]
21. Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some attention
in the news. Global warming refers to the idea that the world’s average temperature has
been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that
the world’s climate may change as a result.
What do you think? Do you think that global warming is happening? (Response options: yes, no, don’t know. Results in Figure 18.)
22.How sure are you that global warming is happening? (Asked if respondent answered
“yes” to question 21. Response options: extremely sure; very sure; somewhat sure; not at all
sure. Results in Figure 18.)
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
49
23.How sure are you that global warming is not happening? (Asked if respondent answered
“no” to question 21. Response options: extremely sure; very sure; somewhat sure; not at all sure.
Results in Figure 18.)
24.Which comes closer to your own view? (First and second response option rotated. Results
in Figure 19.)
• Most scientists think global warming is happening.
• Most scientists think global warming is not happening.
• There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening.
• Don't know enough to say
25.Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is… (Figure 20)
• Caused mostly by human activities
• Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment
• Other (Please specify)
• None of the above because global warming isn’t happening
26.How worried are you about global warming? (Figure 21)
• Very worried
• Somewhat worried
• Not very worried
• Not at all worried
27. How much do you think global warming will harm: (Response options: Not at all; only
a little; a moderate amount; a great deal; don’t know. Results in Figure 22)
• You personally
• Your family
• Your community
• People in the United States
• People in other modern industrialized countries
• People in developing countries
• Future generations of people
• Plant and animal species
50
climate change in the american mind
28.I have personally experienced the e≠ects of global warming. (Figure 23)
• Strongly agree
• Somewhat agree
• Somewhat disagree
• Strongly disagree
29.When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the United States?
(Figure 24)
• They are being harmed now
• In 10 years
• In 25 years
• In 50 years
• In 100 years
• Never
30.When do you think global warming will start to harm other people around the world?
(Figure 24)
• They are being harmed now
• In 10 years
• In 25 years
• In 50 years
• In 100 years
• Never
31. Worldwide over the next 20 years, do you think global warming will cause more or less
of the following, if nothing is done to address it? (Response options: Many less; a few less;
no di≠erence; a few more; many more; don’t know. Results in Figure 25.)
• Intense hurricanes
• Extinctions of plant and animal species
• Famines and food shortages
• Droughts and water shortages
• People living in poverty
• Refugees
• Severe heat waves
• Forest fires
• Dease epidemics
• Floods
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
51
32.Worldwide over the next 20 years, how likely do you think it is that global warming
will cause each of the following if nothing is done to address it? (Response options: Very
unlikely; somewhat unlikely; somewhat likely; very likely; don’t know. Results in Figure 26.)
• Expanding deserts
• Melting ice caps and glaciers
• Abandoning large coastal cities due to rising sea levels
33.Now please think about the human health e≠ects of global warming. (Please choose
the answer corresponding to your best estimate.)
Worldwide, how many people do you think … (Response options: None; hundreds, thousands; millions; don’t know. Results in Figure 27 & 28.)
• Currently die each year due to global warming?
• Are currently injured or become ill each year due to global warming?
• Will die each year 50 years from now due to global warming?
• Will be injured or become ill each year 50 years from now due to global warming?
34.Personally, how well informed do you feel you are about … (Response options: Not at
all informed; not very well informed; fairly well informed; very well informed. Results in Figure 29.)
• The di≠erent causes of global warming
• The di≠erent consequences of global warming
• Ways in which we can reduce global warming
35. How much had you thought about global warming before today? (Figure 30)
• Not at all
• A little
• Some
• A lot
36.How often do you discuss global warming with your family and friends? (Figure 31)
• Never
• Rarely
• Occasionally
• Very often
52
climate change in the american mind
37. How many people have you spoken with about global warming in the last two weeks?
(Figure 32)
• 0
• 1-4
• 5-10
• More than 10
38.On some issues people feel that they have all the information they need in order to
form a firm opinion, while on other issues they would like more information before
making up their mind. For global warming, where would you place yourself? (Figure
33)
• I need a lot more information
• I need some more information
• I need a little more information
• I do not need any more information
39.I could easily change my mind about global warming. (Figure 34)
• Strongly agree
• Somewhat agree
• Somewhat disagree
• Strongly disagree
40.Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? (Figure 35)
• Global warming isn’t happening
• Humans can’t reduce global warming, even if it is happening
• Humans could reduce global warming, but people aren’t willing to change their
behavior, so we’re not going to
• Humans could reduce global warming, but it’s unclear at this point whether we
will do what’s needed
• Humans can reduce global warming, and we are going to do so successfully
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
53
41.The actions of a single individual won’t make any di≠erence in global warming. (Figure 36)
• Strongly agree
• Somewhat agree
• Somewhat disagree
• Strongly disagree
42.New technologies can solve global warming, without individuals having to make big
changes in their lives. (Figure 37)
• Strongly agree
• Somewhat agree
• Somewhat disagree
• Strongly disagree
43. If you were to change your lifestyle to reduce your personal contribution to global
warming, how do you think it would it a≠ect your quality of life? (Figure 38)
• Improve my quality of life a lot
• Improve my quality of life a little
• Have no impact on my quality of life
• Decrease my quality of life a little
• Decrease my quality of life a lot
• I don’t know
44.How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of information about
global warming? (Response options: Strongly distrust; somewhat distrust; somewhat trust;
strongly trust. Order of the first seven sources was randomized, and the list ended with Barack
Obama & John McCain. Results in Figure 39.)
• Family & friends
• Environmental organizations
• Corporations
• Religious leaders
• Scientists
• The mainstream news media
• Television weather reporters
• Barack Obama
• John McCain
54
climate change in the american mind
appendix b:
Survey demographics
Demographics
Female
52%
Married
49%
Home owners
74%
Currently working
58%
Age
18-29
21%
30-44
27%
45-59
28%
60+
24%
Education
Less than high school
13%
High school
32%
Some college
28%
Bachelor's degree or higher
27%
Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic
69%
Black, non-Hispanic
11%
Hispanic
13%
6%
Other
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
N=2,164
Political Orientation
Party ID
Republican
27%
Democrat
39%
Independent
21%
2%
Other
11%
No party / not
interested in politics
Political orientation
6%
Very liberal
Somewhat liberal
21%
Middle of the road
43%
Somewhat conservative
21%
Very conservative
9%
Registered voter
84%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
N=2,164
beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, actions
55