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Transcript
Where now for
Sustainable Transport?
Moving People Changing Expectations
Conference
Mike Slinn
October 2008
Today’s presentation





Transport’s contribution to climate change
Low Carbon Transport Innovation
Strategy
The Julia King Report
UCL Environment Institute Policy Report
Climate change and sustainable
transport – the challenge for
transport professionals
Transport’s contribution to
climate change
•
•
•
•
•
Background
Stern report
The UK contribution
UK Climate Bill
Aviation
Climate Change - Some Background….
 Relationship between man made emissions and
temperature rise first put forward in 1980s
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) formed in 1988
 Published 4 Assessment Reports, latest in
2007
 Increasing certainty over time
 Climate change is real and is a threat
CO2 levels
Atmospheric concentration
 2005 379ppm, Pre-industrial 280ppm
 Rate of increase is accelerating
 2008 387ppm
 Levels far exceed those from last 650,000 years
 between 1995 and 2005 CO2 levels increased by
1.9 ppm per annum
Climate change to date
 Temp: 1906-2005, +0.74C, increase is
accelerating
 Sea Level 1900-2005, +250mm, increase is
accelerating
Climate Change Outcomes - IPCC
 By 2095, estimates are:
 temperatures will be 1.1C-6.4C higher than
1990
 Sea level will be 0.18m-0.59m higher than 1990
 IPCC ‘Headline’ Scenario
 CO2 concentrations must peak at 450ppm
 emissions must reduce between 2000 and
2015
 CO2 emissions in 2050 must be between 50%
and 85% lower globally than in 2000
 Projected impacts of climate change
 Poorest countries suffer most
Global CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuels,
1990-2004
Global CO2 Emissions
29,000,000
27,000,000
tonnes ('000)
25,000,000
23,000,000
21,000,000
19,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
rest of world
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Ukraine
Spain
Brazil
France
Indonesia
Iran
South Africa
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
United States
tonnes ('000)
CO2 Emissions by Country – Fossil Fuel
Burning
Total CO2 Emissions by Country, 2004
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Ukraine
Spain
Brazil
France
Indonesia
Iran
South Africa
Mexico
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
United States
tonnes / person
25
emissions / head
20
600
15
500
10
400
300
5
200
100
-
tonnes / $m GDP
Top 20 Emitters: Emissions / head & GDP
CO2 Emissions By Country, 2004
900
emissions / gdp
800
700
Global Growth Projections
Cars:
 Present day – 600m
 2050 – 1,100m in China & India alone
Population:
 6,700m (2008) → 9,220m (2075)
Economy:
 Global growth of a factor of 3-4 by 2050
Major future energy pressures from the developed and
developing world
Greenhouse Gas Statistics - The Future
Contribution
The Stern Report

Action is needed to contain emissions and to
bring forward technologies that can deliver more costeffective carbon reduction in the future

If unchecked, climate change could shrink global
economies by 20%

Radical cuts are needed in the medium to long
term

It may be cost effective for domestic transport to
abate carbon emissions by around 40-60% in 2050
compared with 1990 levels.

Addressing the problems of climate change
would cost less than 1% of global GDP
The Stern Report
 Climate change is occurring
 It is attributable to the increased levels of CO2 in the
atmosphere
 There needs to be an increasingly stringent
regulatory environment to reduce CO2 emissions
 “The climate change we expect in the next 30-40
years will be due to our past greenhouse gas
emissions.
 Climate change later this century will be determined
by the emissions we allow now”
A
om
m
ry
se
an
d
di
sp
o
sa
l
pr
oc
es
se
s
fu
el
s
sh
ip
pi
ng
fu
el
u
ia
l
tio
na
l
es
id
en
t
fr
om
us
tr
ia
l
io
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ft
an
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t
In
d
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is
s
ai
rc
ra
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at
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W
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En
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fa
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UK CO2 Emissions by Sector
UK CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Carbon dioxide emissions for transport
Carbon dioxide emissions for road transport
New car average emissions
Draft UK Climate Change Bill
 Aims to reduce CO2 emissions below 1990 baseline
levels by
 26-32% by 2020
 60% by 2050
 Targets exclude international aviation travel
HOL/HOC Jt Committee on the Climate Change Bill –
comparing Road Transport and International Aviation
Low Carbon Transport Innovation
Strategy (LCTIS)
Published by DfT in May 2007
Fourfold approach
Technologies for Road Sector
Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives
Technologies for Aviation Sector
Policy Implementation
LCTIS – Fourfold approach
“Creating a stronger incentive framework for lower
carbon transport technologies”
Carbon price signals
Other market-based and regulatory approaches
Research, development and demonstration of
technology projects
Better information on carbon impacts and lower
carbon options
LCTIS – Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives
EU intention to replace voluntary agreements with
a new legislative framework to deliver average new
car fuel efficiency of 130 gms of CO2 per km by
2012.
UK Government announced in the 2007 Budget its
objective of cutting average new-car emissions to
100 gms CO2 per km.
The Julia King Review of Low-Carbon
Cars (April 2008)
“to examine the vehicle and fuel technologies that over
the next 25 years could help to decarbonise road
transport particularly cars”
 Part 1 The potential for CO2 reductions
 Part 2 Policy recommendations
The King Review – key findings compared
to 2000 levels of traffic and carbon
emissions
 By 2030
 50% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre
 30% overall reduction in emissions
 By 2050
 90% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre
 80% overall reduction in emissions
The King Review – potential solutions
 Cleaner fuels – biofuels, zero-carbon electricity,
hydrogen
 More efficient vehicles – enhancements to
conventional vehicles, introducing hybrid and electric
battery technologies
 Smart driver choices – purchasing low-emission
technologies, pumped-up tyres, acceleration control,
car-driver journey avoidance
The King Report - Conclusions
“….in the long term (2050 in the developed world),
almost complete de-carbonisation of road transport
is a realistic ambition. If:
 substantial progress can be made in solving
electric or other innovative vehicle and fuel
technology challenges and, critically
 the power sector can be decarbonised and
expanded to supply a large proportion of road
transport demand
UCL Environment Institute Policy Report
2007
• Expect by 2020 that surface transport carbon
emissions will rise not fall and aviation emissions will
grow substantially
• Vehicle excise duty
• Fuel duty escalator
• Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
• Voluntary Agreement with car manufacturers
• Dieselisation
Climate Change and Sustainable
Transport – the challenge for transport
professionals
•
•
•
•
•
Managing Demand
Changing Behaviour
Accessibility and Social Equity
Technology and Safety
Administration and Finance
Managing Demand
•
•
•
•
•
•
Economic and social reasons for travel
Spatial planning
Hard and soft management measures
Reducing congestion
More efficient use of scarce resources
People and freight movement
Changing Behaviour
• Public awareness
• An accepted need for change (public and corporate
social responsibility)
• Achieving corporate objectives
• Smarter travel choices ( healthier, less congestion,
safer, environmentally and socially conscious)
Accessibility and Social Equity
• Ensuring everybody has good access to essential
services (employment opportunities, shopping,
health, education, leisure)
• Global equity
Contraction and Convergence
Technology and Safety
•
•
•
•
Technical fixes to reduce carbon emissions
Vehicle purchase and usage
Impact on infrastructure design and maintenance
Impact of road accidents
Administration and Finance
• Government funding of transport infrastructure
• Local transport funding
• Fiscal measures directed at reducing carbon
emissions
• Future Carbon Emissions dependent on the link
between transport and energy policies