* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Mike Slinn Presentation - Where Now for Sustainable Transport?
Document related concepts
Where now for Sustainable Transport? Moving People Changing Expectations Conference Mike Slinn October 2008 Today’s presentation Transport’s contribution to climate change Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy The Julia King Report UCL Environment Institute Policy Report Climate change and sustainable transport – the challenge for transport professionals Transport’s contribution to climate change • • • • • Background Stern report The UK contribution UK Climate Bill Aviation Climate Change - Some Background…. Relationship between man made emissions and temperature rise first put forward in 1980s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed in 1988 Published 4 Assessment Reports, latest in 2007 Increasing certainty over time Climate change is real and is a threat CO2 levels Atmospheric concentration 2005 379ppm, Pre-industrial 280ppm Rate of increase is accelerating 2008 387ppm Levels far exceed those from last 650,000 years between 1995 and 2005 CO2 levels increased by 1.9 ppm per annum Climate change to date Temp: 1906-2005, +0.74C, increase is accelerating Sea Level 1900-2005, +250mm, increase is accelerating Climate Change Outcomes - IPCC By 2095, estimates are: temperatures will be 1.1C-6.4C higher than 1990 Sea level will be 0.18m-0.59m higher than 1990 IPCC ‘Headline’ Scenario CO2 concentrations must peak at 450ppm emissions must reduce between 2000 and 2015 CO2 emissions in 2050 must be between 50% and 85% lower globally than in 2000 Projected impacts of climate change Poorest countries suffer most Global CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuels, 1990-2004 Global CO2 Emissions 29,000,000 27,000,000 tonnes ('000) 25,000,000 23,000,000 21,000,000 19,000,000 17,000,000 15,000,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 rest of world Saudi Arabia Australia Ukraine Spain Brazil France Indonesia Iran South Africa Mexico Italy South Korea United Kingdom Canada Germany Japan India Russia China United States tonnes ('000) CO2 Emissions by Country – Fossil Fuel Burning Total CO2 Emissions by Country, 2004 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Saudi Arabia Australia Ukraine Spain Brazil France Indonesia Iran South Africa Mexico Italy South Korea United Kingdom Canada Germany Japan India Russia China United States tonnes / person 25 emissions / head 20 600 15 500 10 400 300 5 200 100 - tonnes / $m GDP Top 20 Emitters: Emissions / head & GDP CO2 Emissions By Country, 2004 900 emissions / gdp 800 700 Global Growth Projections Cars: Present day – 600m 2050 – 1,100m in China & India alone Population: 6,700m (2008) → 9,220m (2075) Economy: Global growth of a factor of 3-4 by 2050 Major future energy pressures from the developed and developing world Greenhouse Gas Statistics - The Future Contribution The Stern Report Action is needed to contain emissions and to bring forward technologies that can deliver more costeffective carbon reduction in the future If unchecked, climate change could shrink global economies by 20% Radical cuts are needed in the medium to long term It may be cost effective for domestic transport to abate carbon emissions by around 40-60% in 2050 compared with 1990 levels. Addressing the problems of climate change would cost less than 1% of global GDP The Stern Report Climate change is occurring It is attributable to the increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere There needs to be an increasingly stringent regulatory environment to reduce CO2 emissions “The climate change we expect in the next 30-40 years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change later this century will be determined by the emissions we allow now” A om m ry se an d di sp o sa l pr oc es se s fu el s sh ip pi ng fu el u ia l tio na l es id en t fr om us tr ia l io ns ft an d en t In d em is s ai rc ra fo re st tre at m gi tiv e W as te Fu M ili ta ry an d R in st itu rt tr an sp or t tr an sp o oa d th er - er ci al an d O us tr ie s st ru ct io n in d co n R & En er gy fa ct ur in g gr ic ul tu re C M an u UK CO2 Emissions by Sector UK CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Carbon dioxide emissions for transport Carbon dioxide emissions for road transport New car average emissions Draft UK Climate Change Bill Aims to reduce CO2 emissions below 1990 baseline levels by 26-32% by 2020 60% by 2050 Targets exclude international aviation travel HOL/HOC Jt Committee on the Climate Change Bill – comparing Road Transport and International Aviation Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy (LCTIS) Published by DfT in May 2007 Fourfold approach Technologies for Road Sector Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives Technologies for Aviation Sector Policy Implementation LCTIS – Fourfold approach “Creating a stronger incentive framework for lower carbon transport technologies” Carbon price signals Other market-based and regulatory approaches Research, development and demonstration of technology projects Better information on carbon impacts and lower carbon options LCTIS – Car Fuel Efficiency Objectives EU intention to replace voluntary agreements with a new legislative framework to deliver average new car fuel efficiency of 130 gms of CO2 per km by 2012. UK Government announced in the 2007 Budget its objective of cutting average new-car emissions to 100 gms CO2 per km. The Julia King Review of Low-Carbon Cars (April 2008) “to examine the vehicle and fuel technologies that over the next 25 years could help to decarbonise road transport particularly cars” Part 1 The potential for CO2 reductions Part 2 Policy recommendations The King Review – key findings compared to 2000 levels of traffic and carbon emissions By 2030 50% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre 30% overall reduction in emissions By 2050 90% reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre 80% overall reduction in emissions The King Review – potential solutions Cleaner fuels – biofuels, zero-carbon electricity, hydrogen More efficient vehicles – enhancements to conventional vehicles, introducing hybrid and electric battery technologies Smart driver choices – purchasing low-emission technologies, pumped-up tyres, acceleration control, car-driver journey avoidance The King Report - Conclusions “….in the long term (2050 in the developed world), almost complete de-carbonisation of road transport is a realistic ambition. If: substantial progress can be made in solving electric or other innovative vehicle and fuel technology challenges and, critically the power sector can be decarbonised and expanded to supply a large proportion of road transport demand UCL Environment Institute Policy Report 2007 • Expect by 2020 that surface transport carbon emissions will rise not fall and aviation emissions will grow substantially • Vehicle excise duty • Fuel duty escalator • Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation • Voluntary Agreement with car manufacturers • Dieselisation Climate Change and Sustainable Transport – the challenge for transport professionals • • • • • Managing Demand Changing Behaviour Accessibility and Social Equity Technology and Safety Administration and Finance Managing Demand • • • • • • Economic and social reasons for travel Spatial planning Hard and soft management measures Reducing congestion More efficient use of scarce resources People and freight movement Changing Behaviour • Public awareness • An accepted need for change (public and corporate social responsibility) • Achieving corporate objectives • Smarter travel choices ( healthier, less congestion, safer, environmentally and socially conscious) Accessibility and Social Equity • Ensuring everybody has good access to essential services (employment opportunities, shopping, health, education, leisure) • Global equity Contraction and Convergence Technology and Safety • • • • Technical fixes to reduce carbon emissions Vehicle purchase and usage Impact on infrastructure design and maintenance Impact of road accidents Administration and Finance • Government funding of transport infrastructure • Local transport funding • Fiscal measures directed at reducing carbon emissions • Future Carbon Emissions dependent on the link between transport and energy policies