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The bleached coral of Lorne Reef near Townsville, with Rattlesnake Island in the background during the 1998 mass coral bleaching event. Credit: GBRMPA The implications of CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AUSTRALIA’S GREAT BARRIER REEF AT RISK People and industries AT RISK WWF Australia and the Queensland Tourism Industry Council commissioned a revolutionary new study on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. This study explores possible ‘futures’ for the Reef, a complex task that involves the analysis of vast sets of information ranging from the climate sciences to the biology and economics of Australia’s coral reef industries. The analysis reveals a range of possible futures, some of which are more desirable than others from economic, social and environmental perspectives. Some of these futures are disturbing and must be avoided. This is the first study of its kind to outline how the future might unfold and how specific actions taken today will craft tomorrow’s world. Strong action to increase ecological resilience while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions today will be instrumental in securing the economic and environmental wealth of Australia tomorrow. Australia must act to influence the global agenda, and this report provides some guidance on what to do. The report seeks to answer the burning questions: What will climate change do to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef and its people, and what can we do to minimise future impacts? Coral reefs like the Great Barrier Reef are severely threatened by climate change as well as a range of local human-induced factors. What this means for reefdependent societies requires complex analysis and begins with questions as to what the Great Barrier Reef might be like in 2020 and 2050. Is the Reef going to be healthy, stressed or changed beyond recognition? If it is dramatically different in quality to today’s Reef, how will the many people and industries dependent on the Reef be affected? Will reef-dependent fisheries and tourism, in particular, be strong, threatened or non-existent? How does change in the ecology of the Great Barrier Reef flow onto people, towns and regions? Most importantly, what steps can be taken to minimise the effects of these changes on the Great Barrier Reef so that its dependent communities can retain and grow regional economic and social health? Are there actions that can be taken locally that might influence that objective, or are regional societies passive recipients of changes that are beyond our control? The focus of the study was the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, which extends from the tip of Australia at Cape York to its southern extremity north of Bundaberg. Five regions along the coast made it possible to differentiate impacts of climate change within the area: Far North Queensland, Northern, Mackay-Whitsunday, Fitzroy and Wide Bay-Burnett. See Figure 1. The study of how these regions will be affected by climate change is described in three parts: • The scientific evidence for the effect of climate change on the Reef. COOKTOWN • Regional economic analysis of reef-related industries. • Future scenarios. FAR NORTH Policy recommendations ranging from global to local are CAIRNS then provided. TOWNSVILLE NORTHERN MACKAY MACKAY ROCKHAMPTON FITZROY BUNDABERG WIDE BAY BURNETT BRISBANE The Scientific Evidence Clownfish (Amphiprion percula). The loss of corals due to bleaching may have drastic consequences for these delightful creatures. Credit: Triggerfish Images CLIMATE CHANGE The earth has warmed by 0.6˚C since 1880 and will warm a further 2 to 6˚C by 2100. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide over the past few decades have increased at a rate several orders of magnitude above anything seen over the past 400,000 years. It is no longer credible to claim that there is major debate around the fact of human-driven climate change. Human-driven climate change is here now and is already changing our lives. The earth’s biological systems have responded even to the minimal warming seen so far. Among numerous examples on land, the tree lines of alpine forests have expanded to higher altitudes and exotic species have invaded as the number of frost days has decreased - palm forests are now growing in alpine Switzerland. Rainforests, such as Australia’s Wet Tropics World Heritage area, are severely threatened due to changes in temperature, rainfall and cloud presence. In the sea, fish populations are moving towards the poles, ecosystems are changing dramatically and the earth’s polar ice caps are melting with huge ramifications for some of the most productive regions of the ocean. Coral reefs have shown some of the most dramatic impacts of climate change, with the advent of world-wide coral bleaching events from 1979 as the thermal threshold of many of the world’s coral populations was exceeded. Global cycles of coral bleaching and mortality have increased dramatically as sea temperatures have reached higher and higher values over the last 20 years. In the last five years, the Great Barrier Reef for example experienced two of the worst bleaching events in its history. Coral bleaching is a sign of stress in corals, which live in close symbiosis with brown dinoflagellate algae (zooxanthellae). When corals become stressed, the brown algae are expelled turning corals a brilliant white. In cases where stress is mild, corals can recover. When stress is more intense, corals die, often across huge sectors of the world’s oceans. Recent episodes of mass coral bleaching were caused by rising sea temperatures. In 1998, 16% of the world’s coral died. In some regions such as the Western Indian Ocean, more than 48% of living coral was eliminated. The removal of these key organisms has huge implications for the ecosystems and for people that depend on these critically important coral reef resources. Global climate change, however, is not alone in causing the loss of coral reefs across the Earth. The stress to coral reefs across the world is being aggravated by coastal land practices, overfishing and marine based pollution. These influences alone have been estimated to potentially remove over 50% of coral reefs over the next 30-50 years, even before we factor in the effects of climate change. Other influences such as changing chemical properties of sea water are also inflicting pressure on coral reefs, compounding the primary cause of rising sea temperatures. Climate change and the other human influences are likely to have dramatic impacts on the world’s coral reefs over the next 50 years. Under some scenarios, coral cover degrades rapidly to less than 5% of the total cover on a coral reef. If this happens, major changes to fish populations and the natural values of coral reefs will occur. This will affect millions of reef users and associated industries such as fisheries and tourism. How much, is the critical question. Industries clearly differ in their vulnerability. Global fishing industries, for example, are already in crisis as fish stocks plummet (no fish, no industry); tourism is proving more flexible and resilient (no coral, changed business) but remains vulnerable as the decline of coral populations continues. 3 Is the Great Barrier Reef vulnerable? Estimates of the climate change expected over the coming century suggest that corals on the Great Barrier Reef will experience seas that will be 2˚C to 6˚C warmer than today’s seas by 2100. Torres Strait temperatures will be found at the southern Great Barrier Reef as early as 2030. As with coral reefs elsewhere, thermal stress will increase to levels that are several times higher than in 1998. By the middle of this century, these levels will be exceeded every year at all sites along the Great Barrier Reef. Integrating the best available data on coral tolerance with current climate models indicates that change is inevitable for coral reefs like the Great Barrier Reef. The implications are that the flora and fauna of the Great Barrier Reef will change dramatically as climate change gathers impetus. Even under the best case scenarios, coral cover is likely to decrease to less than 5% on most reefs by the middle of the century. Reefs will be devoid of coral and dominated by seaweed and blue-green algae. The rapid reduction in coral cover will have major consequences for other organisms and reef functions. Many coral-dependent organisms will become rare and may become locally or globally extinct. Populations of fish and other organisms that form the basis of fisheries will change. Coral reefs have already deteriorated due to a combination of human misuse and climate change induced bleaching events such as those in 1998 and 2002. This will have further implications for the tourist industry as more degradation occurs, for commercial fisheries through changing fish community structure and abundance, and other activities such as recreational fishing, indigenous hunting and fishing, and coastal protection. Understanding and planning for this change should be an imperative for the Australian and Queensland governments. already deteriorated due to a combination of human misuse and climate change. Coral reefs have 4 Economic Analysis of Reef-related Industries International and domestic tourism is the major reefbased industry. This sector has been the main driver of regional growth. It is strongly orientated towards the Tropical North with smaller nodes elsewhere, especially the Whitsundays north of Mackay. Tropical North Queensland has experienced the strongest economic growth of about 6% per annum, driven by the growth in international tourism. The WWF Australia and Queensland Tourism Industry Council report has developed a new measure of the importance of ‘reef-interested’ tourism for the five regions - a measure that considerably increases previous estimates. In terms of contribution to the regional economies, $1.4 billion of a total $2.1 billion represents the estimated reef-interested component (68%). The reefinterested component is highest in Far North Queensland both absolutely and relative to total tourism in the region. Because interest in the Reef is so high, tourism is naturally vulnerable to the deterioration of coral reefs despite the well-known resilience and adaptability of the tourism industry. The value of commercial fisheries is small relative to tourism but remains socially and economically important. Recreational fisheries are important socially rather than economically for the regions, since they appear to be largely practised by local residents and therefore add little to the economic base. CLIMATE CHANGE The five regions along the Great Barrier Reef derive major revenue from mining and mineral processing, tourism, sugar cane farming and processing, fruit and vegetable growing, and cattle grazing. These industries provide most of the economic base for the five regions. Aquaculture is a growth industry, backed by Commonwealth Government policy. The Queensland component of the Australian aquaculture industry has been small to date, mainly because of stringent government controls. It is expected to grow strongly as further measures are taken to control fisheries, and new technologies for containing pollution are adopted by the aquaculture industry. A healthy reef, covered in a stunning array of colourful hard corals. Credit: Triggerfish Images 5 Possible Futures for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef The aim of developing future scenarios is to look at futures that include most credible eventualities so that we can then plan responses. One story may tell of rapid population growth, unequal rates of economic growth, and widening income gaps both domestically and internationally. Another story may stress environmental and social care, international cooperation and technology transfer, and moderate population and economic growth benefiting all countries and income groups. There is no way to say whether any one of these futures is more likely to happen than another. Constructing these scenarios allows us to for the plan The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) developed four global futures along two dimensions: 1 economic/environmental (A versus B) and 1 global/regional (1 versus 2). Economy A2 Global Regional B1 B2 Environmental Driving Forces Figure 2: Schematic illustration of SRES scenarios. The four scenario ‘families’ are illustrated, very simplistically, as branches of a two-dimensional tree. In reality, the four scenario families share a space of a much higher dimensionality given the numerous assumptions needed to define any given scenario in a particular modelling approach. The schematic diagram illustrates that the scenarios build on the main driving forces of greenhouse gas emissions. Each scenario family is based on a common specification of some of the main driving forces. (Text quoted from IPCC, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000, Chapter 1.7.2.) 6 While the IPCC scenarios started with descriptions of possible futures in narrative form (storylines), their purpose was to serve as a basis for numerical projections of population, GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. See Figure 2. From this international perspective, the WWF Australia and Queensland Tourism Industry Council report developed successive storylines for Australia, the Great Barrier Reef, reef-based industries (tourism and fisheries), and other industries driving the regional economies. The final step was to derive numerical projections for each scenario for tourism and fisheries and the economic impact on each of the five regions along the Reef. The Four Scenarios A1 future. Scenario A1 is driven by strong economic growth and strong global institutions, and initially relies strongly on fossil fuels. Population reaches a maximum of 8.7 billion in 2050 and then declines. As time goes, however, fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive to extract, and the trend in our version in the report veers towards a more environmentally sensitive ‘B1’ world from the 2040s. In the A2 scenario, the world is divided into separate geopolitical trading blocks driven by economic growth considerations but without strong unifying forces. Global population keeps rising towards 15 billion in 2100. This is the worst-case scenario which basically fails to cope with the continued increase in greenhouse gases. In the B1 scenario, global environmental concerns take precedence over economic growth, and the outcome in terms of reversing the increase in greenhouse gases is the most favourable among the four scenarios. Global population peaks at around the same level as in the A1 Scenario in 2050and then starts to decline. Finally, scenario B2 depicts a world with strong local community drivers rather than global environmental cooperation. To capitalise on both local and global drivers in order to build a best case scenario for the Great Barrier Reef region, the B2 scenario is assumed to merge into the more globally orientated B1 scenario towards the middle of the century Bleached coral at Heron Island during the 2002 mass bleaching event. This was the worst bleaching event in the history of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Credit: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg The four bars show the total direct economic losses to tourism and fisheries plus flow-on effects for the five regional economies along the Reef. CLIMATE CHANGE The results of the four scenarios are illustrated by Figure 3, showing the total economic cost up to 2020 associated with a degrading Great Barrier Reef. Figure 3: Total estimated economic loss according to the four scenarios over the first two decades of the 21st Century. Further losses will follow in subsequent decades which will increase the differences, as the annual loss accelerates in the A2 scenario indefinitely, and in A1 at least into the second half of the century. Annual losses will grow at a decreasing rate in the B1 and B2 scenarios, and may stabilise from mid-century. The chart shows industry losses only; there is no attempt to value ecosystem services and other indirect and future use, or any bequest and other non-use functions of the World Heritage Area. In the global economic growth-driven A1 scenario where environmental considerations take a relative back seat at least over the first two decades, the total estimated loss to local Queensland communities by 2020 amounts to $A5.6 billion. The fragmented A2 world represents a worst case to be vigorously avoided for the regions along the Reef. Here the total estimated loss to local Queensland communities amounts to $8 billion by 2020, the highest projected loss of the four scenarios. The two scenarios giving higher priority to environmental matters will still see losses in economic product as a result of climate change, because total greenhouse gas emissions cannot be reduced overnight. The total estimated loss under scenario B1 is $4.5 billion up to 2020. The fourth scenario, B2, adds a strong local community input to the general environmental priorities adopted in B1. Up to 2020, it shows the lowest loss of $3.5 billion. Key findings for each of the four scenarios are shown in Table 1. 7 Table 1: Scenarios to 2020 in the Great Barrier Reef Region Base Year 2001 2020 (unadjusted for reef damage) per annum A1 A2 B1 B2 Estimated Gross Regional Product ($million) Tourism Wild fisheries Aquaculture 2,024 2,947 2,686 2,949 2,949 115 138 121 133 133 23 123 106 123 123 29,500 39,900 26,600 36,100 36,100 39,000 48,500 38,000 44,000 44,000 3,374 3,374 3,374 3,374 3,374 423 2,517 2,396 2,517 2,517 405,000 464,700 351,400 431,300 412,700 Regional flow-on (multiplier) effect Total Gross Regional Product Estimated employment (persons) Tourism Wild fisheries Aquaculture Regional flow-on (multiplier) effect Total regional employment Even the best-case scenarios involve greater environmental concern than we have yet experienced despite recent government initiatives. Bleached coral at Great Keppel Island during the 2002 mass bleaching event. Healthy corals are a major draw for dive tourism in Australia and overseas, and the tourism industry is likely to suffer if reef degradation persists. Credit: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg 8 (in constant 2001 dollars) Projected cost of reef damage 2020 A2 B1 B2 2020 (adjusted for reef damage) per annum A1 A2 B1 B2 288 403 177 127 2,659 2,283 2,272 2,822 42 40 51 48 96 81 82 85 – – 50 – 123 106 73 123 264 355 222 140 594 798 500 315 39,300 25,800 35,600 35,800 4,700 5,700 2,600 1,900 43,800 32,300 41,400 42,100 1,026 1,142 1,298 1,230 2,348 2,232 2,076 2,144 – – 1,023 – 2,517 2,396 1,494 2,517 4,581 5,474 3,937 2,504 10,307 12,316 8,858 5,634 454,400 339,100 422,400 407,100 CLIMATE CHANGE A1 This provides the most important guidepost for the policies we need to adopt. 9 Policy Implications Making the best case scenario explored in the WWF Australia and Queensland Tourism Industry Council report a reality will be critical to the livelihoods and lifestyles of Australians that currently depend on a healthy sustainable Great Barrier Reef. To get there, we must turn our policies in the right direction now. International Policies The Great Barrier Reef is an international and national icon and draws millions of visitors to Australia every year. The most likely outlook for the Great Barrier Reef over coming decades is more frequent mass coral bleaching events due to increased sea surface temperatures. We can try to minimise the damage from these events if we keep global temperature rise due to human activities to no more than 2 degrees. In order to achieve this, developed countries like Australia will need to have reduced their emissions by 80% (based on 1990 levels) by 2050. By 2100, emissions will need to be close to zero. • The Australian Government should actively engage in discussion on how to achieve deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To achieve such major reductions, we must start now. If we are to minimise damage to the Great Barrier Reef, then we must start with the following. • The Australian Government can take a positive role in promoting and helping to fund the replacement of oil and coal-based energy technologies with clean, renewable and affordable energy sources in developing countries. • The Kyoto Protocol should enter into force as soon as possible, with Australian Government ratification. It is a small but necessary step. Bleached coral on reefs off Great Keppel Island, in May 2002. Bleaching occurs when corals are stressed, usually as a result of been exposed to excessively warm water for an extended period of time. Credit: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg 10 International Policies The following actions would enable Australia to play its part in a global effort to avoid dangerous climate change: • The Australian Government’s 2% national Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) should be strengthened. Burning fossil fuels for energy contributed 48% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2001. A target of 10% renewable energy by 2010 would not only assist in turning the tide in the battle with CO2 emissions but could also have net benefits for rural and regional Australia. • A national greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme with a tight cap on emissions would be a very positive step to reduce greenhouse emissions using market mechanisms. Reform of the tax system should go even further to include other environmentally motivated reforms associated with water use and quality, solid and industrial wastes, and the use of other natural amenities. • The Australian Government should promote other clean energy technologies that help to reduce national greenhouse gas levels. For example a national target for the uptake of co-generation for large industrial energy users would provide an incentive for some of the biggest users of coal-fired electricity to install gas fired generators on site. • State Governments are responsible for the future direction of Australia’s electricity infrastructure. They need to ensure that any new fossil fuel power stations meet best-practice emissions intensity at the level of a combined cycle gas turbine. CLIMATE CHANGE Domestic Policies • Australia has great potential to improve the end use efficiency of its energy. The Australian Government is best placed to take the lead on this so that standards are nationally consistent. The first step could be the introduction of mandatory energy efficiency standards for all new and existing buildings. Energy performance standards for appliances and equipment should also be tightened. • The Australian, State and Territory Governments need to substantially increase funding for public transport and rail freight in order to better control transport emissions. It is also important that mandatory fuel efficiency standards for new cars and commercial vehicles are introduced. • A rapid end to broadscale clearing of remnant bushland across in Queensland and Tasmania should be delivered as soon as possible by the Commonwealth and relevant State governments. Policy implications for the Great Barrier Reef Even if global warming is constrained to 2-2.5˚C, coral reefs are likely to experience widespread and serious damage. To minimise the extent of damage to the Great Barrier Reef, local efforts to increase the ecological resilience of the Reef are vital. Resilience, or the capacity to recover from major disturbances such as coral bleaching, can be promoted by governments implementing the following: • Thirdly, the Queensland Government must put in place fisheries management plans for those fisheries without them in order to reduce fishing effort to sustainable levels.Destructive fishing practices such as seafloor trawling, which damage the seafloor and result in large volumes of bycatch, should be phased out in order to maintain and potentially restore ecosystem integrity and resilience. • The single most important initiative is to implement a comprehensive network of no-take zones (marine sanctuaries) throughout the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. The Australian Government’s new zoning plan for the Great Barrier Reef, tabled in Parliament in December 2003, includes such a network and will enhance the resilience of the reef ecosystem and minimise biodiversity losses. The full report is on line at the WWF Australia Great Barrier Reef website: www.wwf.org.au. • Secondly, the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan, which aims to reduce water quality problems arising from poor land management practices in the catchment adjacent to the World Heritage area, needs to be adequately funded and efficiently implemented. Critical to the livelihoods and lifestyles of Australians who depend on a healthy Great Barrier Reef 11 Healthy, colourful hard corals. Credit: Triggerfish Images mission is to conserve biodiversity in WWF Australia's Australia and the Oceania region. WWF AUSTRALIA For more information, contact: WWF Australia GPO Box 528 Sydney NSW 2001 Toll free: 1800 032 551 www.wwf.org.au [email protected] ISBN: 1 875941 59 2 12 Authors: Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg Hans Hoegh-Guldberg WWF is one of the world's largest and most experience independent conservation organisations, with almost 5 million supporters and a global network active in more than 90 countries. WWF Australia's mission is to conserve biodiversity in Australia and the Oceania region. We have 180 active projects focussing on five priority areas that address current conservation challenges. For in depth information on all our work, go on-line at www.wwf.org.au or call our toll free number 1800 032 551.