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Approaching Adaptation Climate Change Adaptation 101 Jennie Hoffman, EcoAdapt Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, WHMSI III, Asuncion Paraguay EcoAdapt July 24, 2008 Climate Change Adaptation is: * A set of methodologies to reduce the vulnerability of species, communities, processes, etc. to climate change * A new way of thinking about what we do and how we do it -Consider time as well as space -Change is the only constant New Conservation Paradigm 1) Protect Adequate and Appropriate Space as dictated by climate change 2) Limit all Non-climate Stresses that are made worse by or worsen the effects of climate change 3) Use Adaptive Management & start testing strategies now 4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions to limit the amount of stress 1) Protect adequate and appropriate space for a changing world: • Representation – Networks of reserves – Gradients (latitude, elevation) – Diversity of habitats • Replication • Protect resistant and resilient communities • Create/protect refugia Adequate/appropriate space, cont’d • Protect ecosystem linkages – Protect entire watersheds – Protect coastal buffer to allow inland movement • Design reserves based on features less likely to change • Protect key ecosystem features – Breeding grounds – Migratory species stopover areas Pollution & Unsustainable Harvest Habitat Degradation 2) Reduce non-climate stresses likely to negatively interact with effects of climate change ©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON Invasive Species © WWF-Canon / Jürgen Agriculture & Habitat Fragmentation ©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER 3) Employ active adaptive management approaches and start testing strategies “integration of design, management, and monitoring to systematically test assumptions in order to adapt and learn” (Salafsky et al., 2002) **COMBINE RESEARCH AND ACTION: We need to act now, and we need to learn what works © WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht Describe current status Identify threats Adjust management as needed Combine research and action: “Fail early and Define often” goals/targets Implement plan, monitor success Develop action/monitoring plan 4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions For some systems resilience building options are scarce and mitigation is needed • Adaptation: anything that increases a community’s ability to remain intact and functional in the face of climate change • Resistance: ability to withstand change • Resilience: ability to recover from change How do we do adaptation? Reducing vulnerability to climate change revolves around two key questions: 1. How vulnerable are the communities, ecosystems, species, social structures, etc. that we care about to climate change? [vulnerability assessment] 2. What can we do to limit or reduce vulnerability/support resistance or resilience? [adaptation planning] Two basic approaches: Top Down and Bottom Up TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES Changes in: temperature, precipitation amount and timing, currents, sea level, water chemistry, stratification, etc. What might change? How much? How soon? How certain are we? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES 2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS What ecological effects are likely to result from these changes (e.g. range changes, timing of seasonal events, species interactions, etc.)? What cultural, economic, and subsistence effects are likely to result from these changes? What might change? How much? How soon? How certain are we? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES 2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS 3. PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES What critical ecological/social/economic/cultural structures and processes are most resilient? Most at risk? BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES What variables (ecological/social/economic/cultural) are critical to ecosystem or community function? What conservation priorities have been identified for the ecoregion? BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES How do climatic forces influence these key species, structures, processes, priorities, etc.? 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES , SPECIES AND PROCESSES BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES What climatic changes are predicted for the region in question? How will these affect key structures, processes, and priorities? What will my protected area, farm, etc. look like in 50 years? 2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES How do you use vulnerability assessments to design adaptation strategies? BUILDING ADAPTATION PLANNING INTO YOUR VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES PHYSICAL CHANGE: Increasing dryness IDENTIFY IMPACTS ADAPTATION OPTION: Protect/restore forests (forests increase retention of moisture in air & soil, increase rainfall) PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES ADAPTATION OPTION: Manage dams to support adequate flow or remove dams altogether; minimize warming of water by protecting/restoring riverside vegetation 2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES CLIMATIC INFLUENCES: River temperature and flow 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES KEY SPECIES: Salmon Climatic Change Likely effects Possible adaptation options Climatic Change Likely effects Possible adaptation options Increasing sea level Decreased sea turtle nesting beach habitat Protect areas inland of beaches to allow natural shift in location Altered wind patterns Possible effect on bird migration paths and energetics Protect good stopover habitat along migratory routes that may become more heavily used Adding in a few complicating factors: Climate change is not happening in a vacuum TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY KEY NONCLIMATE STRESSORS What non-climate stressors (e.g. unsustainable land use, conflict over water, wars, etc.) threaten ecosystem or community function in the area of concern? IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NONCLIMATE STRESSORS How will predicted climate changes influence non-climate stressors and vice versa (e.g. increase in drought and demand for fresh water, increase in heavy rainfall and deforestation, coastal development and sea level rise)? IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES How do interactions between climate and non-climate stressors affect vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES NON-CLIMATE STRESSOR: Pollution IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS INTERACTION: Some pollutants are more toxic in warmer conditions; others increase heat sensitivity of animals IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES ADAPTATION OPTION: Focus clean-up efforts on target pollutants; change laws to reduce maximum allowable levels of target pollutants Broaden your thinking • Human communities will change their behavior in response to climate change; what does this mean for conservation of migratory species? • Changes in one biome can affect another drought flood food migration Courtesy of Institute for Bird Populations Warm-phase ENSO (El Niño conditions) More fledglings in Pacific Northwest Birds migrate earlier, arrive in better condition Effects of ENSO on neotropicalwintering species Higher late winter rainfall on wintering ranges in west Mexico More insect and plant food resources for pre-migration conditioning (presumably) **The relationships between El Nino and rainfall in Central America vary spatially; where birds overwinter influences the effect of El Nino on their population **The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on seabirds and hole-nesting birds is reversed at higher and lower latitudes **Climate change and its effects are also likely to vary spatially. A few examples of adaptation options Cover-crops Terraces Interplanting Multiple benefits: hurricaneresistance, sustainable agriculture, better habitat Breeding salttolerant baldcypress trees in south-eastern US Water quality and bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef •Bleaching correlates with water quality as well as temperature •GBRMPA working with national, regional, local governments as well as watershed landowners/land users to improve water quality Three things to remember about why to do adaptation: • Climate change is happening right now • Climate change is an opportunity for creative new thinking • Failing to include climate change in your work means your work is vulnerable Three things to remember about how to do adaptation: • Adaptation is not rocket science (but it does require a thoughtful approach) • Context matters – Ecological, Political, Sociocultural, Organizational • YOU are an expert on your region/species – Combine available data and models with your understanding of how things work where you are It’s BREAKOUT TIME! WE provide information, suggestions, feedback YOU take the lead: it’s YOUR day it’s your time for strategic DOING Go home with something useful! No one can tell you the best solution for your organization, region, sector, or biome. YOU create the solution! Sample top-down approach Extreme rainfall events become more common Predicted Physical Changes: Increased soil erosion Ecological Effects: Loss of crops Human Community Effects: Increased sedimentation of reefs, mangroves, sea turtle nests River organisms stressed by extreme currents, turbidity Loss of coral reef tourism Loss of coastal protection Loss of habitat for commercially or culturally important species (e.g. crabs, fish, shrimp, turtles, manatees) Sample bottom-up approach Predicted Change: Climatic influences: Key structures, processes, etc: If sea level rise is slow, soil accretion keeps pace and mangroves stay put Sediment input: too much can smother trees, too little reduces accretion rate For intermediate rates of sea level rise, mangroves shift inland For rapid sea level rise, mangroves drown Increasing temp increases evaporation, can increase salinity, stressing trees Temperature: Min/max temp tolerance Mangrove forests Submergence time: determines location of trees