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Climate Action in Figures Facts, Facts, Trends Trends and and Incentives Incentives for for German German Climate Climate Policy Policy 2016 edition edition 2016 2 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | Imprint Published by Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) Public Relations Division · 11055 Berlin · Germany Email: [email protected] · Website: www.bmub.bund.de/english Edited by BMUB, Division KI I 1, Martin Weiß, Mareike Welke (PtJ) Text Caterina Salb, Sarah Gül, Charlotte Cuntz, Felix von Blücher, Linda Beyschlag (Ecofys) Design digitale-gestaltung, Berlin Printed by Bonifatius GmbH, Paderborn Picture credits Cover: Fotolia.com / Leigh Prather, molaruso · Page 6: BMUB / Harald Franzen Page 10: canstockphoto / aiisha · Page 18: Holger Ebeling · Page 28: canstockphoto / studio023 Page 54: canstockphoto / photostocker Date July 2016 First print 2,000 copies Where to order this publication Publikationsversand der Bundesregierung Postfach 48 10 09 · 18132 Rostock · Germany Tel.: +49 30 / 18 272 272 1 · Fax: +49 30 / 18 10 272 272 1 Email: [email protected] Website: www.bmub.bund.de/en/service/publications Notice This publication is part of the public relations work of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety. It is distributed free of charge and is not intended for sale. Printed on recycled paper. CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Climate ClimateAction Actionin inFigures Figures Facts, Facts,Trends Trendsand andIncentives Incentivesfor forGerman GermanClimate ClimatePolicy Policy 2016 2016edition edition 3 4 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | List of contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 2. Why is Germany committed to climate action? ........................................................ 10 2.1 Causes and consequences of climate change ..................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Germany’s responsibility ................................................................................................................................................ 15 3. What are the current climate action targets and instruments? ......................... 18 3.1 International climate policy ......................................................................................................................................... 18 Key issue 2016: decarbonisation of the global economy....................................................................................... 21 3.2 European Climate Policy ................................................................................................................................................ 22 3.3 German climate policy..................................................................................................................................................... 25 4. How are emissions in Germany developing? .............................................................. 28 4.1 Emissions in Germany – past, present and future ........................................................................................... 28 4.2 Energy sector ......................................................................................................................................................................... 32 4.3 Industry..................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 4.4 Transport .................................................................................................................................................................................. 42 4.5 Private households ............................................................................................................................................................. 45 4.6 Commerce, trade and services ..................................................................................................................................... 47 | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 4.7 Waste and recycling management ............................................................................................................................ 49 4.8 Agriculture .............................................................................................................................................................................. 51 4.9 Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) .......................................................................................... 52 5. What does climate action mean for the economy and society? ........................ 54 5.1 Impact on the environment and health ................................................................................................................ 55 5.2 Job creation ............................................................................................................................................................................. 55 5.3 Investments in climate action ..................................................................................................................................... 56 5.4 Opportunities for innovative companies ............................................................................................................. 59 5.5 Increased energy security............................................................................................................................................... 60 5.6 Contribution of social stakeholders to climate action.................................................................................. 62 6. Glossary ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 64 7. List of abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................................... 67 8. Endnotes ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 68 9. Bibliography............................................................................................................................................................................. 69 5 6 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | FOREWORD Foreword In December 2015, 196 Member States of the United Nations adopted a new global climate agreement in Paris. A record 177 states – including Germany – had already signed the agreement by the end of April 2016 during the official ceremony in New York, thus signalling their approval of its content. The Paris Agreement enters into force as a binding contract under international law once it has been ratified by at least 55 states responsible for at least 55 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Fifteen states have already ratified it. The top two greenhouse gas emitters – the US and China – have announced that they will ratify the agreement before the end of this year. Germany and the European Union also intend to ratify the agreement as soon as possible. Paris has greatly boosted awareness of climate action. The target set by the agreement is to restrict global warming to significantly less than two degrees compared with pre-industrial times, aiming for a 1.5 degree limit if possible. To this end, greenhouse gas neutrality is to be achieved in the second half of this century. That makes Paris the beginning of a comprehensive transformation. In future, all states will report regularly on their progress. Then it is up to the governments: each state must submit new, increasingly ambitious targets every five years. This is necessary, because the existing commitments alone will not be enough to slow global warming. By 2050, we in Germany aim to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent compared with 1990. After Paris, that means we must focus on reaching greenhouse gas emissions neutrality by 2050. In its Climate Action Programme 2020, published in late 2014, the German Federal Government decided to adopt a Climate Action Plan in 2016. The plan describes the emission reduction steps for the years after 2020 in the light of the European targets and the results of Paris, backing them up with specific measures. The key to climate action is to get as many people involved as possible. In a comprehensive participatory process, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) gave the Federal States, municipalities, private sector and society, as well as individual citizens the FOREWORD | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES opportunity to contribute to and discuss the development of the Climate Action Plan 2050. The parties involved jointly developed an impressive catalogue of 97 proposals, which I had the privilege of receiving on 19 March 2016. The proposals collected were reviewed thoroughly for the German Federal Government’s work on the Climate Action Plan. The signal from Paris is clear: every single state around the world needs to take action. Countries and sectors will no longer be able to hide behind others. Therefore, the Climate Action Plan 2050 formulates mission statements for 2050 for all key areas – energy, buildings, transport, industry, commerce, trade and services, agriculture, forestry and waste management – and develops milestones and measures for the crucial 2030 landmark. Particularly with regard to Paris, the BMUB advocates serious and realistic climate policy that views the change as an opportunity to modernise the economy and society. Reliable facts and figures are just as important as binding climate targets. Accordingly, the environmental and climate data, including the development of the annual greenhouse gas emissions, will be recorded systematically and published regularly in international reports. This Climate Action in Figures brochure is the third time the BMUB is presenting this data in a clear and easy-to-understand publication for the general public, and as previously, we provide plenty of information and diagrams on international, European and national climate action. I hope you find it an informative and interesting read. Dr Barbara Hendricks, German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety 7 8 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | SUMMARY 1. Summary WhyisisGermany Germanycommitted committedto to Why climateaction? action? climate Climate change is already a reality today – that is a scientific fact. The global average temperature has already increased by approximately 1 °C compared with the pre-industrial level. This rise can primarily be traced back to fossil fuel combustion. What Whatare arethe thecurrent currentclimate climate action actiontargets? targets? Climate change is already tangible, even in Germany. The number of hot days, with peak daily temperatures of 30 °C or higher, has increased since the 1970s in Germany. Heat waves and extreme weather events like heavy rain are the most obvious effects of climate change in Germany. In 2015, 196 countries in Paris agreed on a global legally binding goal of greenhouse gas neutrality during the second half of the century, to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. With its historic emissions, Germany is responsible for three to four per cent of the global rise in temperature. One year prior, the European Union committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990. Germany aims to take a pioneering role in this by reducing its emissions by at least 40 per cent as early as 2020. This is one milestone on the way to the common EU-wide target of an 80-95 per cent reduction by 2050 compared with the greenhouse gas emissions of 1990. SUMMARY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES How are emissions in Germany developing? in Germany developing? Germany’s climate policy aims to reduce greenhouse gases emitted by eight sectors in particular: the energy sector, industry, transport, private households, commerce / trade / services, waste management, agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry. In 2014, Germany emitted 902 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents, almost 80 per cent of which came from the energy, industry and transport sectors. At 40 per cent, the energy sector accounts for the largest proportion of total emissions. As the key instrument for avoiding emissions, renewable energies have become the largest individual source of electricity, reaching 30.1 per cent in 2015. As a Europe-wide measure to reduce emissions in the energy and industrial sector, emissions trading covers almost 51 per cent of all European CO2 emissions. Action is needed particularly urgently in the transport sector, where petroleum still provides over 90 per cent of fuel consumed. Emissions in the commerce, trade and services sector have been reduced by more than half (56 per cent) since 1990. In absolute terms, that is equivalents to roughly 44 million tonnes of CO2. Private households have achieved the third greatest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared with 1990, at 35 per cent. Most of the emissions are due to heating, which means that they can be reduced by increasing building efficiency. The main greenhouse gases in agriculture are methane and nitrous oxide, which are 25 and 300 times more harmful to the climate than CO2 respectively. Germany is a global pioneer in climate-friendly waste management. This sector has achieved the highest relative emission reductions, at 66 per cent since 1990, especially thanks to the phasing out of landfilling untreated residential waste and increased recycling of material and energy from waste. What does climate action mean for the the economy economyand and society? society? for In Germany, particulate matter and ozone cause roughly 35,000 deaths every year. By reducing fossil fuel combustion, effective climate action also decreases emissions of air pollutants. The global market for environmental and efficiency technologies is 2.5 billion euros and will at least double by 2025 according to latest estimates. Germany’s pioneering role in international climate policy means that innovative German companies are well positioned in this sector. Today, companies in environmental technology and resource efficiency already provide roughly 1.5 million jobs in Germany. German expenditure on imported fossil fuels totalled 80.5 billion euros in 2014, 14 per cent less than the previous year. Expanding domestic renewable energy capacities and energy savings from energy efficiency measures reduce the dependency on energy imports and reduces the strain on state coffers. 9 10 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2. Why is Germany committed to climate action? to climate action? 2.1 Causes and consequences of climate change Causes of climate change Human activities are driving climate change. Above all, burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas substantially increases the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, raising average temperatures. This was the finding of the First Assessment Report by the World Climate Council (IPCC; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in 1990 – a scientific committee featuring many renowned climate scientists, who gather state-of-the-art knowledge on climate change every five to seven years, and compile it in reports with virtually every state on earth. Since its inception in the 1990s, international climate policy has been based on the scientific findings of the IPCC. Two years after the publication of the First IPCC Assessment Report, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was passed in 1992, to combat the global problem of climate change jointly in future. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES i The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report was published in 2013/2014 and Report confirms huThe Fifth IPCC Assessment was man influence on the climate once again. published in 2013/2014 and confirms hu-1 man influence on the climate once again.1 1. Climate change has been proven scientifically. 1. Climate change has been proven scientifically. IPCC quote: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, since the 1950s, IPCC quote: “Warmingand of the climate system unequivocal, and since many ofisthe observed changes arethe un-1950s, precedented decades to millennia. many of the over observed changes are un- The atmosphere havetowarmed, theThe precedentedand overocean decades millennia. amounts of snow and ice have diminished, atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the sea level has risen and the concentrations amounts of snow ice have diminished,of greenhouse increased.” sea level hasgases risenhave and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.” 2. Climate change can largely be traced back to human combustion of fossilbefuels. 2. Climate change can largely traced back to human combustion of fossil fuels. IPCCquote: quote:“The “Theatmospheric atmosphericconcenconcenIPCC trationsof ofcarbon carbondioxide, dioxide,methane methaneand and trations nitrousoxide oxidehave haveincreased increasedto tolevels levels nitrous unprecedentedin inat atleast leastthe thelast last800,000 800,000 unprecedented years.Carbon Carbondioxide dioxideconcentrations concentrationshave have years. increasedby by40 40per percent centsince sincepre-industrial pre-industriincreased al times, primarily from fossil emistimes, primarily from fossil fuelfuel emissions sions and secondarily from netuse land use and secondarily from net land change change emissions.” emissions.” As part of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the global community has agreed the target of restricting increases in average global temperature to well below 2 °C compared with the pre-industrial level, and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5 °C. Accordingly, an agreement was reached to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible, and in the long term, in the second half of the century, to reduce them to a net of zero. To date, global warming has already reached approximately 1 °C. Without further climate action, global warming could rise to 4 °C or more by 2100.2 In its latest Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that compliance with the 2 °C limit – and thus the avoidance of some of the worst consequences of climate change – remains technically and economically feasible.3 However, this will take significant greenhouse gas emission reduction measures. The world maps in Figure 01 show two different scenarios for potential temperature increases by the end of the 21st century (2081 to 2100 averaged, compared with the temperatures observed between 1986 to 2005). The figure on the left (IPCC Scenario RCP2.6) is based on the assumption that great efforts must be taken to avoid further greenhouse gas emissions. The measures can probably restrict the global temperature increase to 0.3 to 1.7 °C (compared with the 1986 to 2005 period). The 1986 to 2005 period was already approximately 0.6 °C warmer than the pre-industrial period. The map of the world on the right (IPCC Scenario RCP8.5) shows a more pessimistic situation, with high greenhouse gas emissions in the centuries to come. In this case, the temperatures in the Arctic for example would increase by up to 10 °C (compared with the 1986 to 2005 period).4,5 Global consequences of climate change Droughts, flooding and melting glaciers already highlight the global consequences of climate change today. Persistent and unchecked emission of greenhouse gases would lead to further global warming and thus to an increase in the consequences of climate change. In 2014, torrential downpours, flooding and landslides were among the most common climate risks. Ocean warming and acidification can also be observed, as well as extreme temperatures. Increased extreme rainfall matches scientific expectations for changed water cycles due to climate change. Overall, the greater global warming is, the more difficult and less probable adaptation to climate change will be, even in industrialised countries. With global warming of 2 °C, while negative effects of climate change cannot be prevented, many regions could offset them by adapting. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, restricting global warming 11 12 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE to 1.5 °C would reduce the risks and effects of climate change significantly, which is of particular importance to vulnerable island nations and developing countries. If the global average temperature increases by more than 2 °C, scientists expect extreme effects, some of which will be out of control, especially in particularly vulnerable regions. There is also a risk that greater warming will lead to tipping points, resulting in irreversible changes like melting ice caps or thawing permafrost, which in turn would further increase warming. Figure 02 shows the range of effects on the European continent. by flooding. Climate change will affect the poorest people most of all, as they often live in particularly climate-sensitive regions (all ten of the countries most affected by extreme weather are developing countries), depend on agriculture and have limited financial and technical resources to take action to adapt to climate change. Accordingly, climate change also heightens social inequality and poses a risk of violent conflict and increased migration. For humankind, climate change entails both health risks – due to heat waves or the spread of germs, for example – as well as economic risks from failed harvests in drought periods or damage to infrastructure caused Figure 01: Change in average temperature of the earth’s surface (2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005) Scenario with low additional emissions Scenario with high additional emissions (°C) -2 -1.5 -1 Source: IPCC (2013) -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 7 9 11 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 02: Map of Europe on the effects of climate change Arctic - Temperature increase above global average - Shrinkage of permafrost regions, Arctic sea-ice cover and Greenland’s ice cap - Increasing risk of loss of biodiversity and gas resources Coastal regions and regional seas - Increase in surface temperatures, acid content, and sea levels and plankton species to the north North Western Europe - Increasing precipitation in winter, rivers carry more water, - Migration of species to the north - Decrease in need for heating energy Mediterranean region - Temperature increase above European average - Water shortages, decreasing annual rainfalls, rivers carry less water - Decreasing agricultural yields due to water shortages, risk of Mountain regions - Temperature increase above European average - Shrinkage of permafrost regions, glacial extent and volume - High risk of soil erosion and extinction in - Increasing rates of mortality due to heat waves and other health risks such as the spread of southern diseases Alpine regions, as well as upward shift in plant and animal species - Decrease in ski tourism Northern Europe - Temperature increase above global average - Shrinkage of snow, lake and river ice cover, rivers carry more water, increasing hydropower potential - Migration of species to the north Central and Eastern Europe - Increase in extreme high temperatures and water temperature - Decline in summer precipitation, increasing - Rising harvests - Decrease in need for heating energy - Increasing risk of damage due to winter storms - Increase in summer tourism Source: Own diagram based on EEA (2015a) - Decrease in the economic value of the forests 13 14 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE Consequences of climate change in Germany Germany is also susceptible to climate change. It is one of the 20 countries most frequently struck by extreme weather events worldwide between 1994 and 2014.6 Other expected climate change consequences in Germany include a decline in the supply of groundwater in agricultural soil. Phenological changes in wild plant varieties indicate that the seasons have shifted (shorter winters and far longer early autumns). The changed sequence of seasonal weather influences the development of agricultural cultures during the year. Effects on the composition of species communities in both flora and fauna have also been identified. For example, increasing numbers of brooding bird varieties that prefer warmth are being found in Germany, and Southern European, warm-water fish species are being found in the North Sea.7 The The heat heat wave wave in in the the summer summer of of 2003 2003 resulted resulted 52,000indeaths in Europe. in 52,000indeaths Europe. Seven thousand fatalities, in particular of old and weakened people in Germany made the 2003 heat wave a prime example of a serious extreme weather event that scientists link with the climate change.8 Besides the health consequences, the heat wave led to additional melting of Alpine glaciers, destruction of forests due to major forest fires and bottlenecks in power supply and reduced agricultural yields. The economic losses due to the heat wave were estimated to exceed 13 billion euros.9 It seems like new record temperatures are set every year. During the heat wave in July and August 2015, a new record temperature of 40.3 °C in the shade was set in Germany,10 after 2014 had already been the hottest year since records began. In general, the number of “hot days” (peak temperatures of at least 30 °C) in Germany has increased since the 1970s. While “tropical nights” (when temperatures do not fall below 20 °C) are still relatively rare compared with hot days, they are increasing in years with pronounced heat waves. Scientists still expect the number of extreme weather events such as heat waves and torrential rain to rise. That means that the negative effects of climate change on nature, society and the economy in Germany are likely to increase. • The Vulnerability Study Germany 2015 forecasts 5,000 to 8,000 additional fatalities annually due to heat stress in future. This figure is based on the assumption that mortality can be expected to increase from one to six per cent per degree Celsius at higher temperatures.11 • Heat waves and extended dry periods can adversely affect water management and forestry: In certain regions, agricultural irrigation can be restricted temporarily, and the risk of forest fires can increase. Both call for heightened adjustments. • The increasing temperatures cause non-indigenous species of flora and fauna typically found in warmer climatic zones to proliferate. These species can not only disturb the domestic ecosystem, they can also spread pathogens dangerous to humans, animals and plants. One example is the proliferation of the tiger mosquito which can pass on tropical diseases like Chikungunya and dengue. • Extreme weather events such as torrential rain and flooding will occur more frequently due to climate change, and can damage infrastructure and agriculture. After the torrential rain at the end of May 2013, several main railway lines were closed for months. The damage due to the storm and the subsequent flooding caused insured damage of almost two billion euros – with a far higher estimated total damage.12 GERMANY’S RESPONSIBILITY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 2.2 Germany’s responsibility Even if the rapid increase in emissions in recent decades – when allocating the emissions to their countries of origin – is attributable to upcoming emerging countries, Germany is a major co-originator of climate change. Figure 03 shows the per capita CO2 emissions broken down by country and global region, in the context of their respective percentage of world population. Although China tops the list of absolute emissions by far (Figure 04), the per capita emissions are still far below those of many OECD nations at 7.59 tonnes of CO2. The German per capita CO2 emissions, at roughly 9.3 tonnes, are far higher than the international average of 4.9 tonnes per capita (2014).13 As an industrial nation, Germany has grown its economy using fossil fuels over the past century. Since the beginning of industrialisation, Germany has contributed almost four per cent (0.03 °C) to global warming to date with its greenhouse gas emissions, although the German population only makes up roughly one per cent of the world population. Figure 03: International per capita CO2 emissions by per centage of global population 2014 14 12 10 Australia and New Zealand Russia 16 USA and Canada Tonnes of CO2 per capita 18 % India SubSaharan Africa 7 .9 11 17 .8 % Brazil North Africa % % 0 8 3. 2. Asia % .9 16 % Former Soviet Republics* Latin America and Caribbean % 9 5. 2 6. % 7 4. % .9 18 4. 9 % 0. 4 2. % 0 1. % 1 % 0 0 EU28 and Switzerland (without Germany) % 2 2. 4 Middle East (without Egypt) 6 China Germany 8 percentage of population * Excluding Russia; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are included in EU28 Source: Own diagram based on EDGAR (2015) and World Bank (2015) 15 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | GERMANY’S RESPONSIBILITY Germany is aware of its historic and present-day responsibility, towards both developing countries and future generations, for climate change and combating it. Global historic CO2 emissions (Figure 05) show that OECD countries in particular, but also the Asian region, need to reduce their emissions significantly in the near future to achieve the global 2 °C target. • Decrease of over 27 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions14 • Major expansion of renewable energy sources – the percentage of primary energy consumption from renewable energy sources has increased almost tenfold to 12.5 per cent today15 • Per capita primary energy consumption reduced by more than 12 per cent16 For this reason, Germany has been actively committed to climate action since the 1990s, and has already made considerable advances by 2015 compared with 1990: With its ambitious climate policy and the German energy transition, which aims to bring about a fundamental restructuring of the energy system away from Figure 04: Greenhouse gas emissions in the international comparison (excluding LULUCF) 14,000 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 12,455 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,344 6,000 4,681 4,000 3,003 2,989 2,799 2,000 1,479 951 542 576 497 395 322 235 56 *No data available for 2013; therefore data for 2012 is presented here Sources: 2013 data: UNFCCC (2015) 2012 data: EDGAR and UBA (as of: March 2015) en ia* Sw ed an ain Ta nz Sp Fr an ce Po la nd UK an y Au st ra lia rm Ge Ja p an * sia Ru s il* az Br * ia* In d 28 EU A* US in a* 0 Ch 16 GERMANY’S RESPONSIBILITY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 05: Historic CO2 emissions and savings path Giga tonnes of CO2/year 45 40 35 30 25 In order to meet the 2° limit, climate neutrality must be achieved by 2075. 20 15 10 5 0 1900 1950 2000 Middle East & Africa Germany Latin America & Caribbean EU28* Asia Emerging countries OECD -1990 countries fossil fuels and nuclear power, Germany shows that even an industrial and exporting nation can combine economic growth with climate action. This is intended to encourage other industrial nations to take more ambitious climate action. In addition to this, Germany fulfils its responsibility by helping developing countries take climate action 2010 2050 2060 2075 2100 *Excluding FOLU Source: Own diagram based on Edenhofer O. et al. (2014), UNEP (2015), WRI (2015) and implement adaptation measures. In 2014, over two billion euros were provided for this from the Federal budget. The German Federal Government aims to double this total to four billion euros per annum by 2020 and thus to make an important contribution to the goal of the industrialised countries to jointly provide at least 100 billion US dollars for climate financing in developing countries from 2020 on.17 17 18 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY 3. What are the current climate action targets and instruments? action targets and instruments? 3.1 International climate policy International climate policy is organised in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC’s secretariat is located in Berlin. To date, the Framework Convention has been ratified by 194 countries and the EU, giving it virtually universal membership. The aim of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that prevents a dangerous, anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This is to occur over a period of time that enables ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate changes (Article 2 of UNFCCC). To help achieve this goal, all nations are to contribute in accordance with their “shared, but different responsibility and capacities”. Since 1995, the Member States have held annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to the convention, chaired alternately by the host countries. These are generally called “Climate Conferences”. At these conferences, the community of states negotiates climate policy matters such as binding emission reduction targets or the provision of climate financing for developing nations. At the third Conference of Parties in 1997 in Kyoto (Japan), the Kyoto Protocol was signed, INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES entering into force in 2005. In it, some industrialised countries, including all EU Member States committed to binding emission reduction targets by 2012, and in a second phase to 2020, as well as to regular reporting of their greenhouse gas emissions and reduction measures. greenhouse gas emissions have ratified it. The main points of the agreement can be summarised as follows: A historic breakthrough in international climate policy was made at the December 2015 21st UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP 21) in Paris. The Paris Agreement includes all contract states (industrialised, developing / emerging countries) as an internationally binding climate agreement, and obligates them to make emission reductions. This is particularly important, as rapidly growing emerging and developing countries were responsible for the majority of emission increases in the last two decades and effective, global climate action is only possible with them. The Paris Agreement was accepted by all 196 Member States of UNFCCC and has already been signed by 177 countries since the signing ceremony on April 22nd 2016 in New York. This is a major breakthrough, as the USA, for example, never ratified the Kyoto Protocol, pointing to the absence of major emerging countries such as China, and therefore never recognised it as internationally binding law. Other major industrialised countries such as Russia, Japan and Canada also did not participate in the second obligation period of the Kyoto Protocol (2013 to 2020). However, these states have set voluntary national climate action targets in preparation for the Paris Convention at the end of 2015, and thus signalled their approval of the new agreement in advance of the final negotiations. • 2 °C cap: in the agreement, the global community committed to an internationally binding target under international law of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. • Climate adjustment and sustainable development: the long-term targets in the Paris Agreement also include a decision by the contracting states to increase the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, and to foster low greenhouse gas emissions development in a manner that does not threaten food production. • Transformative climate financing: flows of finance are to be consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. • Greenhouse gas neutrality: in order to stay below the 2 °C cap, the agreement defines a target of achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. De facto, this means phasing out fossil fuels (decarbonisation). • Regular review of climate action targets: as the climate action targets (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions [INDC]) agreed by the states before Paris 2015 are not yet compatible with the 2 °C cap, the states will submit new climate action targets every five years from 2020 on, that must document the national progress with more ambitious goals. • Reporting: each country must report on its greenhouse gas emissions, so that the progress is not just on paper but implemented in reality. • Support for developing countries: the agreement includes a promise by the industrialised countries to help developing countries take climate action and adapt to climate change, but also encourages other states to provide voluntary support to poorer countries. In addition to this, the community of nations is to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries to overcome climate change-induced loss and damages that can no longer be avoided. The Paris agreement enters into force when at least 55 nations that account for 55 per cent of the global The G7 Summit in Elmau, Germany in June 2015 had previously set an important precedent for the Paris The Kyoto Kyoto Protocol Protocolthus thusbecame becamethe thefirst first legally binding bindingclimate climateagreement agreementwith with quantifiable quantifiable reduction reductionobligations obligationsthat that entered into into force. force. That makes the Protocol an important milestone in international climate policy. In the past decade, international climate policy focused on negotiating a follow-up agreement for the Kyoto Protocol from 2020 on. 19 20 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY Climate Conference. There, the G7 nations committed to decarbonisation of the global economy for the first time – that means phasing out the use of fossil fuels – during the course of this century (for more detail, see the Key Issue: Decarbonisation section). Figure 06 showes all relevant events in international climate policy since 1990. Figure 06: Timeline of relevant events in international climate action since 1990 Fifth IPCC Report COP 16 in Cancùn: • Compliance with 2°C limit • Establishment of the Green Climate Fund Second IPCC Report COP 21 in Paris: New Global Climate Agreement for the period from 2020 passed Fourth IPCC Report UNCED Global Summit in Rio: Foundation of UNFCCC First IPCC Report 1990 1992 Third IPCC Report 2002 2005 2007 protocol Kyoto reduction target: -21% World EU Germany *Still in development Source: Own diagram UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development G7 Summit: Decarbonisation of the global economy by 2100 COP 17 in Durban Kyoto Protocol enters into force Kyoto Protocol passed 1995 1997 COP 15 in Copenhagen 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 EU Energy and Climate Package 20-20-20 enters into force EU emissions trading system launched Energy Concept 2050 Integrated energy and climate action programme Climate Action Plan 2050* Climate Action Programme 2020 New targets for energy and climate policy 2030 EU Energy and Climate Roadmap 2050 published INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Key issue 2016: decarbonisation of the global economy The strategic goal of decarbonisation, a transition away from fossil fuels, was formulated in June 2015 at the G7 Summit in Elmau / Germany. In December 2015 in Paris, the global community also agreed on the goal of achieving a greenhouse gas-neutral global economy between 2050 and 2100. In the long term, decarboniIn the long term, decarbonisation means that theglobal global sation means that the economy will phase out theuse economy will phase out the of fossil harmful to ofuse fossil fuels fuels harmful to the the climate – coal, oil and climate – coal, oil and gas.gas. In order to make decarbonisation a reality, the energy requirements must be met by a significantly increased expansion of renewable energy sources. At the same time, increasing energy efficiency ensures that the overall energy consumption will be reduced. Decarbonisation is a particular challenge in sectors which are currently highly dependent on fossil fuels for technical reasons. Electrification of the transport sector is essential, for example. The challenge for the years to come lies in implementation, i.e. gradual transformation to a decarbonised global economy. The Paris Climate Agreement did not include any specific requirements, as the individual states can define their own strategies for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality. The national contributions submitted in Paris by individual countries (climate action targets agreed prior to Paris: “INDCs” [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions] and, once nationally confirmed after Paris “NDCs” [Nationally Determined Contributions]) already clearly showed that the efforts in most countries would focus on the energy sector and thus decarbonisation. This area produces the highest emissions and also offers the highest potential savings. German climate policy focuses on the energy transition. It is based on three central elements for reaching the emission reduction targets: expanding renewable energy sources, phasing out fossil fuels and increasing energy efficiency (see Section 4.2). The corresponding political direction has tripled the percentage of electricity generated from renewable energy sources in the past ten years (to roughly one third in 2015). Energy efficiency measures have contributed to decoupling economic growth and energy consumption in Germany: primary energy consumption has been in a slight decline since the nineties, in spite of the economic growth. 21 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | EUROPEAN CLIMATE POLICY 3.2 European Climate Policy As an active member in the international community, the EU is also a driving force in the UNFCCC climate negotiations. It strives to achieve ever higher emission reductions throughout all contracting states, to restrict global emissions to a level that makes compliance with the 2 °C cap possible. The EU speaks with a single voice in climate negotiations and thus represents the position of all 28 EU Member States, a position previously determined by consensus. The EU’s long-term climate goal is to have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent in 2050 compared with 1990. On the way to this target, the EU has set binding reduction targets of 20 per cent (compared with 1990) for 2020, and at least a 40 per cent (compared with 1990) EU-internal greenhouse gas reduction by 2030. The emission reduction goals consist of a superordinate goal for high emission countries in the energy and industrial sectors on one hand, which are jointly responsible for almost half of the European greenhouse gas emissions, and covered by EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) (see the Information box, Page 24). In order to achieve the 2030 goal, emissions in these sectors must have decreased by 43 per cent by 2030 compared with 2005 (or 21 per cent by 2020). On the other hand, there is a target for sectors such as transport, agriculture and private households, which are not part of emissions trading. They must have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by a total of 30 per cent in 2030 compared with 2005 (by 10 per cent in 2020). Figure 07 shows the EU Roadmap on the way to a low-emission economy, including the emission reduction targets of the sectors within and outside the emissions trading system, the central European policy instrument for emission reduction. Figure 07: EU climate roadmap and emission reduction goals Greenhouse gas emissions mill. tonnes of CO2 equivalents (excl. LULUCF) 22 6000 Climate roadmap Non-ETS emissions 5000 ETS emissions Target for climate roadmap 2050: 80-95% savings compared with 1990 4000 EU28 emissions million tonnes of CO2 equivalents (Total incl. indirect CO2, excluding LULUCF) 3000 ETS cap 2000 1000 0 1990 2000 2010 Sources: EEA (2015b) and BMUB (2014a) 2020 2030 2040 2050 EUROPEAN CLIMATE POLICY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES By 2030, renewable energy is to provide at least 27 per cent of the final energy consumption in the EU. The primary energy consumption is to be reduced by at least 27 per cent by 2030 compared with a development without efficiency measures (20 per cent by 2020). By 2020, the energy efficiency target for 2030 is to be reviewed to determine whether it can be raised to 30 per cent. Due to the major regional differences within the EU, the binding national targets under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, Figure 08) are distributed based on the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In order to achieve a total greenhouse gas reduction of 10 per cent compared with 2005, the targets were between -20 per cent for the economically strongest Member States and a restriction of emission growth to +20 per cent for the economically weakest Member States. For 2030, the targets were not broken down to Member States – the European Commission is expected to make a corresponding proposal for summer 2016. However it is clear that the reduction efforts will be between zero per cent and 40 per cent and distributed based on per capita GDP. In addition to this, the criterion of cost effectiveness is to be considered fairly and equitably for Member States with a per capita GDP above the EU average. Figure 08: Breakdown of EU climate target EU ETS -21% compared with 2005 EU climate package 2008: Breakdown of EU climate target for 2020 -20% reduction compared with 1990 Non-ETS sectors -10% compared with 2005 Effort-sharing Decision: By 2020, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 14% compared with 2005 (corresponds to -20% compared with 1990) Source: Own diagram Targets for 28 Member States for non-ETS sectors (from -20% to + 20%) Belgium: -15% Luxembourg: -20% Italy: -13% Bulgaria: 20% Hungary: 10% Lithuania: 15% Czech Rep.: 9% Malta: 5% Finland: -16% Denmark: -20% Netherlands: -16% Sweden: -17% Germany: -14% Austria: -16% Croatia: 11% Estonia: 11% Poland: 14% Latvia: -17% Ireland: -20% Portugal: 1% Cyprus: -5% Greece: -4% Romania: 19% Spain: -10% Slovenia: 4% United Kingdom: -16% France: -14% Slovakia: 13% 23 24 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | EUROPEAN CLIMATE POLICY i Information box “Major EU climate instruments” EU emissions trading: EU emissions trading is the central EU instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy and industrial sectors. It specifies an emission cap for energy-intensive companies in the energy and industrial sector. The companies covered by emissions trading are obliged to provide evidence of tradable rights (certificates) to the total of the emissions they cause. That gives them an incentive to save emissions. However there is currently a significant surplus of certificates, which is primarily due to an abundance of opportunities to use international project credits and the economic and financial crisis, as well as the associated lower productivity. As a result of this, the current certificate price has decreased, with the result that the financial incentives for climate investments are very low. The market stability reserve is a first key step towards reforming emissions trading. It is intended to reduce the structural surpluses and make EU emissions trading more flexible in future with regard to significant demand fluctuations, by adapting the certificate supply quantity. Effort-sharing decision: for the sectors not covered by EU emissions trading, transport for example (except flights and international maritime transport), buildings, agriculture and waste, the EU has defined binding targets for individual EU Member States for 2013-2020 in the effort-sharing decision. EU-wide, greenhouse gas emissions are to have decreased 10 per cent in 2020 compared with 2005. The breakdown is based on the economic performance of the Member States. Accordingly, Germany must reduce its greenhouse gases in the transport, household, commerce, trade, services and agriculture sectors by 14 per cent by 2020 – compared with 2005. Renewable Energy Directive: the EU Renewable Energy Directive defines by how much the individual EU Member States must increase the percentage of final energy consumption from renewables. The per capita economic performance is the benchmark. In addition to this, the Directive specifies a target for the transport sector: In 2020, ten per cent of the final energy consumption is to be from renewable energy sources. Biofuels will only be incorporated if they produce at least 35 per cent less greenhouse gases than conventional fuels. From 2018 on, they must avoid 50 per cent of greenhouse gases compared with conventional fuels. Energy Efficiency Directive (EED): the EU Energy Efficiency Directive obliges the Member States to increase efficiency at all levels of the energy sector (generation, supply, consumption). To this end, they must each adopt a national energy efficiency target and develop a national action plan. Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD): the EU’s EPBD requires that all new buildings in the EU from 2021 must be nearly zero energy buildings. New buildings in the public sector must begin to fulfil these requirements from 2019 on. Existing buildings that are to be subjected to a major renovation must fulfil the minimum overall energy efficiency requirements defined by the Member States based on the directive. The Directive does not bindingly require the nearly zero energy buildings standard for existing buildings, but obliges Member States to produce national plans to increase the number of nearly zero energy buildings. GERMAN CLIMATE POLICY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 3.3 German climate policy Political goals As the EU Member State with the highest population and the strongest economy, Germany plays a key role in EU climate policy. Within the EU, the German Federal Government is advancing in climate action, for example with a national climate target far higher than the EU average, entailing a reduction of the national greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2020 compared with 1990. Germany’s climate policy pursues long-term goals and planning. The 2010 energy concept laid down targets and interim targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, expanding renewable energy and energy efficiency by 2050. Accordingly, • greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by at least 80 to 95 per cent by 2050 compared with 1990 (at least 40 per cent by 2020), • renewable energy is to increase to 60 per cent of final energy consumption by 2050 (30 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2040), • and primary energy consumption is to be reduced 50 per cent by 2050 compared with 2008 (20 per cent by 2020). The German Federal Government also confirmed these targets in the 2013 coalition agreement. Figure 09 shows an overview of the targets set. Based on current forecasts, it can be assumed that if all measures passed in Germany are implemented consistently byby 2020, greenhouse implemented consistently 2020, greengas emission reductions of 37 to cent house gas emission reductions of40 37per to 40 per 18 18 can be achieved cent can be achieved In particular, this requires rapid implementation of all measures in the “Climate Action Programme 2020” from December 2014, including the National Energy Efficiency Plan (NAPE). The estimated overall reduction achievable through the measures adopted is subject to uncertainty, and could differ depending on the development of eco- nomic performance, the population, energy prices and the foreign trade surplus for electricity (among others). The German Federal Government documents the implementation progress of the Climate Action Programme in the annual climate action report, first published in 2015. Policy measures In order to achieve the above goals, the German Federal Government relies on the “requirements-support-information” triangle. This range of instruments and measures is based on laws and ordinances at a national level, as well as promotional programmes, information and communication measures (Figure 10). The most important actionable goals of these instruments and measures are a climate-friendly energy supply, promotion of energy, material and resource efficiency, climate-friendly production technologies as well as behavioural changes of the economic players (consumers, companies). Requirements – Examples of central legal regulations that embed climate action in German regulatory law include the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the Renewable Energies Heat Act (EEWärmeG) and the Energy Savings Ordinance (EnEV). EU emissions trading is also founded in German law. The EEG now serves as an international role model: roughly 50 countries have introduced financing instruments for renewable energy sources based on the EEG – including many EU Member States, and China, currently the top greenhouse gas emitter. That makes the EEG one of the most influential laws worldwide. Support – Various financial, market-based and fiscal incentive mechanisms supplement the existing laws and regulations in Germany. Among other things, this includes competitive energy efficiency tenders, KfW promotional programmes for energy-efficient construction and refurbishment, as well as the promotional programmes of the National Climate Initiative (NKI), which reach a broad target market, comprising consumers, municipalities, economy and education. In addition to this, implementing a climate and resource-saving economy also requires production processes, workflows and competences. This results in new challenges and tasks for training, education and lifelong learning. The German 25 26 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | GERMAN CLIMATE POLICY Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) participates in the European Social Fund (ESF), with the “Promoting vocational training for sustainable development. On key green competences for climate and resource-friendly action at work (BBNE)” programme. Information – Information campaigns and mandatory labels for climate-friendly products help consumers to make conscious decisions on climate action, and can influence company behaviour to increase demand for climate-friendly products. Figure 09: Overview of energy and climate action targets of the German Federal Government by 2050 Category 2014 2015* 2020 2030 2040 2050 At least -40% At least At least At least -80 At least 50% Renewable Energy Sources Act 2025: 40 to 45% At least 65% Renewable Energy Sources Act 2035: 55 to 60% Greenhouse gas emissions Greenhouse gas emissions compared with 1990 Growth in percentage of energy consumption from renewable energies consumption At least 35% Percentage of gross electricity consumption At least Percentage of heat consumption Percentage of transport sector Primary energy consumption (compared with 2008) Final energy productivity (2008–2050) 1.6% per annum (2008– 2014) Gross energy consumption (compared with 2008) Primary energy requirement for buildings (compared with 2008) Approx. -80% Heating requirement for buildings (compared with 2008) Final energy consumption for transport (compared with 2005) + *Estimate Sources: BMWi (2015a); BMWi (2016b, as of: January 2016); AGEE-Stat (2016, as of: February 2016); UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) GERMAN CLIMATE POLICY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 10: Policy measures Requirements Legal instruments • Energy Saving Ordinance (EnEV) Information Advice and information Support Financial incentives 1 • Market Incentive Pro gramme (MAP) in the heating sector • Energy audits in industry • KfW subsidy programmes for energy building and refurbishment • Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) • Competitive tenders for (NAPE) electricity • CO2 limits for cars • Funding programmes for National Climate Initiative 2 • Energy labels (Blauer Engel, Energy Star etc.) 3 • Energy consulting for private households • Energy labelling for cars • Ecolabels for agricul tural products Source: Own diagram In 2014, the German Federal Government invested almost 820 million euros in promoting energy research. Three quarters of this went towards researching energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. The 6th Energy Research Programme promotes research and development into new technologies for the future green energy supply in research institutes and companies. Besides renewable energies and energy efficiency, the funding measures support new grid technologies and energy storage. In total, the German Federal Government provided roughly 3.5 billion euros for energy research between 2013 and 2016.19 The Research and Innovation platform – consisting of relevant stakeholders from the German Federal Government, the private sector and science – has been convening since May 2015 with the aim of enhancing networking of research activities in Germany and using them more effectively, to bring new energy technologies to market faster. In addition to the 6th Energy Research Programme, there are other German Federal Government funding programmes for research and development, which do not explicitly prioritise energy policy aspects, but have thematic overlaps. Examples of this are sector-specific transport and aviation research or technology funding for medium-sized companies, which gives small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) specific support for research and development, cooperation with science and innovation consulting. 27 28 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | EMISSIONS IN GERMANY 4. How are emissions in Germany developing?in Germany developing? 4.1 Emissions in Germany – past, present and future According to estimates, climate measures have reduced German greenhouse gas emissions by 27.2 per cent between 1990 and 2015 (1990 to 2014: 27.7 per cent). Instead of 1248 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 1990, Germany emitted just 902 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2014. According to initial estimates, roughly 908 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents were produced in 2015. That represents a minimal increase of six million tonnes compared with the previous year.20 Most of the emission reduction in the past 25 years was made in the 1990s to early 2000s. The economic upheaval in the new Federal States (wall fall profits) were an important driving force behind this: new investments made it possible to build new, more efficient, coal-fired power plants and industrial companies increased the efficiency of their production facilities. Economic fluctuations have a significant influence on emissions. During the financial crisis, the overall emissions in Germany reached their first low in 2009 EMISSIONS IN GERMANY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES compared with the 1990 figures. In 2012, emissions increased again for the first time. In 2014, they dropped below the 2009 level again, reaching the lowest level since 1990. The annual fluctuations are in part due to weather conditions, i.e. they are based on different levels of energy demand during the heating period. Its effect is included in the “With Further Measures” scenario, which forecasts a reduction of approximately 37 to 40 per cent by 2020 compared with 1990. The economic development, population development and the development of energy prices and export of surplus electricity are uncertain. There are still significant surplus capacities in the fossil fuel-based power plant mix. Even though nuclear power is being phased out as a consequence of the nuclear reactor accident in Fukushima (March 2011), the successful expansion of renewable energy sources is currently not reducing the overall emissions in the energy sector to the extent required. The operators of power plants burning fossil fuels (in particular lignite) can offer their electricity at comparatively low cost in the European electricity market. That is due to both the low coal prices on the global market and the continued low CO2 price in emissions trading. As a result, in addition to the increasing feeding from renewable energy sources, emission-intensive coal-fired power plants are still running and the excess electricity is exported.21 In Germany, the energy, industrial, transport, households, commerce, trade and services as well as agriculture and waste management sectors are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions, but contribute to the overall emissions to different extents. This brochure presents emissions based on the source principle; that means that emissions are reported based on the sector that caused them. In 2014, the three largest originators – energy, industry and transport – emitted 77 per cent of the total greenhouse gases in Germany. Figure 11 (and the figures in the individual sub-sections) show the breakdown of the emissions to the sectors based on the source principle. Exports of electricity from Germany have been been increasing for years: in 2015, Gerincreasing for years: in 2015, Germany many exported roughly 51 per cent exported roughly 51 per cent more more electricity than in 2009. The CO2 price is currently not sufficient to restructure energy production to low-emission power plants and thus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The German Federal Government’s forecast report estimates the future development of greenhouse gas emissions based on the measures implemented by a deadline. In 2015, the estimates incorporated the measures implemented prior to mid-2014 (“With Measures” scenario) and a second scenario (“With Further Measures”) also incorporates the additional policy measures adopted in the Action Programme 2020. In the “With Measures” scenario, a reduction of almost 32 to 35 per cent compared with 1990 is assumed for 2020. The scenario includes new climate and energy policy measures introduced or significantly changed by 31 August 2014 in the various sectors. The Climate Action Programme 2020 was passed in 2014 to bridge the gap to the 40 per cent minimum target, feared based on this scenario. In addition to carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4), fluorinated gases (F gases) play a key role in the German reduction goals (Figure 12). Greenhouse gases have varying effects on climate change: nitrous oxide and methane are 300 times and 25 times as harmful to the climate as CO2 over a period of 100 years. The various sectors emitted the different gases to different levels. While CO2 dominates the energy, industrial, transport and building sectors, the agriculture sector largely emits methane. Per capita emissions allow us to compare regions within Germany and Germany with other countries. Emissions vary by region in Germany: the Federal States differ in their population density (for example high in the Ruhrgebiet region, low in Brandenburg), the degree of urbanisation, their infrastructure and the number of industrial locations. These and other factors affect the total and per capita emissions (Figure 13). For example, the average annual emissions in Brandenburg, at 26.4 tonnes of CO2 equivalents per capita, exceed the average emissions of a citizen of Berlin (5.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalents) almost fivefold. The key factor in this difference is the use of lignite to generate electricity in the Lusatian region, combined with the low population in the State of Brandenburg. 29 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | EMISSIONS IN GERMANY Figure 11: Emission developments by sector (without LULUCF)1 1990 total: 1,247 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 30 1200 38 131 2015 total: 908 163 900 78 12 88 283 164 < 750 < 562 35 600 182 88 < 374 300 72 466 Targets for 2050, max. 250: -80 % compared with 1990 < 62.5: -95 % compared with 1990 355 0 1990 1 2000 2005 2010 2015* 2020 Target 2030 Target Energy sector Agriculture Industry Commerce / trade / services Transport Private households Waste management and other commitment period 2008 to 2012 * Preliminary data, some estimates Targets Breakdown of emissions deviates from UN reporting, the overall emissions are identical. Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) 2040 Target 2050 Targets EMISSIONS IN GERMANY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 12: Emission developments by greenhouse gas Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 1990 total: 1,247 1200 13 65 118 900 2015 total: 908 15 40 55 1.051 < 750 799 600 < 562 < 374 300 Targets for 2050, max. 250: -80 % compared with 1990 < 62.5: -95 % compared with 1990 0 1990 2000 CO2 2005 CH4 2010 N2O commitment period 2008 to 2012 Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) Other 2015* 2020 Target 2030 Target Targets * Preliminary data, some estimates 2040 Target 2050 Targets 31 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | EMISSIONS IN GERMANY Figure 13: Breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions per capita by Federal State (2012) 30 Tonnes of CO2 equivalents 25 26.4 22.4 20 21.1 16.8 16.7 15 12.9 10 11.5 10.6 10.5 9.4 7.6 5 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.5 n a gi rli Be rin rg bu Th u se m Ha He s nd Br No em Sa rth xo en ny -R An hi ne ha W lt es t M p ha ec lia kl en Sa bu xo rg ny -W G es er te m rn an Po y m e r Lo an w ia Sc er hl Sa es xo w Rh ny ig -H in el ol an st dein Pa la tin Ba at de e nB av W a ue rtt ria em be rg rla Sa a an de nb ur g 0 Br 32 4.2 Energy sector in particular (lignite and hard coal) in power plants that provide electricity and heat to the public (Figure 15).22 Emission developments Climate policy in Germany focuses in particular on the energy sector. Thanks to the expansion of renewable energy and promotion of energy efficiency, it has already triggered a significant reduction in emissions. Since 1990, this has reduced greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector by 23 per cent (Figure 14). As At almost 40 per cent of overall emissions, the energy industry remained the sector in Germany with the highest greenhouse gas emissions in 2014. These emissions are primarily caused by burning fossil fuels, ENERGY SECTOR | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 15: Emission sources in the energy industry in 2014 (excluding CO2 from biomass) 100% 450 250 397 397 403 382 356 369 366 377 380 358 355 385 400 350 466 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents Figure 14: Emission developments in the energy industry 80% 79 % combustion of solid fuels 1 % combustion of biomass (excl. CO2 from biomass) 60% 40% 150 20% 50 4 % combustion of other fuels 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 8 % combustion of gases 2015* 3 % diffuse emissions Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) * Estimate 5 % combustion of liquid fuels Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) mentioned above, the energy sector plays a special role: in accordance with the source principle, all emissions from electricity and heat production in the energy sector are attributed to the energy sector, even if the electricity or heat is used by private households or the commerce, trade and services sector, for example. Lower energy consumption in these sectors has a positive effect on the climate balance in the energy sector. Special aspects Three key factors are decisive for transforming the energy system, and thus for reducing emissions in the energy sector: first, increasing the percentage of renewable energy in the supply of electricity and heat, second, the associated and necessary reduction and increased flexibility of energy conversion from fossil fuels and third, the simultaneous increase in energy efficiency on the demand side, that continues to offer immense potential. All three elements are interlinked. 1. Expansion of renewable energy Expansion of renewable energy sources is supported significantly as part of the energy transition and with the passing of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). As a result of the expansion, renewable energy sources accounted for the highest percentage (32.6 per cent)23 of gross electricity consumption in Germany in 2015 (Figure 18). Of that, wind energy accounted for the highest share at 45 per cent, followed by electricity from biomass at 22 per cent and photovoltaic systems at 20 per cent (Figure 16). Increases in the share of renewable energies in the other two areas, heating and transport, have developed slightly more slowly: while the percentage of the gross electricity consumption increases continuously, it has remained virtually constant in recent years, and is in slight decline for the transport sector. 33 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | ENERGY SECTOR Figure 16: Development of gross power generation by energy source TWh 34 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 Renewables Oil Black coal Natural gas Nuclear power * Preliminary data, some estimates 2005 Lignite Others 2010 2015* Domestic waste 3% Hydropower 10% Photovoltaics 20% Biomass 22% Wind power 45% Source: AGEB (2015); AGEB (2016a) In 2015, renewable energy sources contributed to a reduction of over 167.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. The greenhouse gas emissions avoided by using renewable energy sources in Germany are increasing constantly and have quintupled since 1990 (Figure 17). The reason for this is the expansion of renewable energy sources and their priority for feeding into the electricity grid, which is mandatory for grid operators under the EEG. This has a positive effect on the climate balance: In the last 25 years, this decreased the CO2 emission factor (or specific emissions) of the German electricity mix, i.e. the CO2 emissions per unit of electricity, by 25 per cent. While generating a kilowatt hour of electricity for final consumption in 1990 entailed direct emissions of 761 grams of CO2, this is estimated at 569 grams per kilowatt hour in 2014.24 The shift of electricity demand to electricity from lower cost renewable energy sources is primarily due to the merit order, which determines the use sequence ENERGY SECTOR | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 17: Avoided greenhouse gases in 2015 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents Electricity: -122.1 Heating: -40.6 0 -30 -14.5 Transport: -4.9 -4.9 -37.3 -59.8 -1.2 -2.1 -60 -90 -23.7 -23.9 -120 -0.1 -150 Water Wind Biomass Photovoltaics Geothermal energy, ambient heat Solar thermal energy Source: AGEE-Stat (2016, as of: February 2016) of the power plants to meet electricity demand based on the respective marginal costs of the power plants (i.e. their variable costs for generating another unit of electricity). Renewable energy sources top the merit order. Generating an additional unit of electricity from wind or solar power costs nothing, as sun and wind are available free. 2. Reducing the use of fossil fuels The German power plant mix has a long tradition of using fossil fuels, mined as hard coal in Germany in particular in the Ruhrgebiet region and as lignite in the Rhine and Central Germany regions. 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The operators four transmission must therefore grid operators ensure that the voltage must therefore and frequency ensure in that thethe grid voltage remain and stable frequency and thein grids the are gridnot remain overloaded stable and at periods of thehigh grids electricity are not overloaded demand. For at this periods purpose, of sufficient high electricity positive demand. and negative For this generation purpose, capacities sufficient are positive contractually and negative bound, generation so that electricity capacities can are contractually be fed into thebound, grid orsoremoved that from electricity it on demand can be fed at into shortthe notice. grid or removed from it on demand at short notice. The future electricity market design (“electricity Themarket future2.0”, electricity White Paper) marketfocuses design on (“elecrestricting tricity market market 2.0”, intervention White Paper) andfocuses free pricing on for restricting electricity. market The balancing intervention power andmarket free is also pricing to be foropened electricity. to renewable The balancing energy power sources. market Restructuring is also to be willopened ensureto that renewable renewable energy energygenerators sources. Restructuring are restrictedwill lessensure frequently that andrenewable can therefore energy be generators used more in areline re- with demand. stricted less frequently and can therefore be used more in line with demand. Source: BMWi (2015f) Source: BMWi (2015f) 35 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | ENERGY SECTOR wind strength and solar irradiation due to the weather conditions. The increase in electricity generation from volatile renewable energy sources means that the conventional (i.e. fossil) power plant operators will have to make their power plant more flexible in future to meet the remaining electricity demand. This is only possible with modern, high-efficiency and rapid-regulation power plants. Lignite power plants are not as suitable for this purpose as flexible gas power plants. Between 1990 and 2014, the percentage of gross power generation accounted for by hard coal decreased by almost 16 per cent, and that of lignite by almost nine per cent. In spite of this, hard coal and lignite still cover over one quarter of the primary energy demand in Germany.25 In the longterm, the use of emission-intensive electricity from coal must be phased out to protect the climate. A kilowatt hour of electricity from lignite (1,158 grams per kilowatt hour) or hard coal (904 grams per kilowatt hour) causes over twice the CO2 emissions of a kilowatt hour of electricity from natural gas (399 grams per kilowatt hour).26 However, generating a high percentage of electricity from coal also does not make sense from an energy industry perspective: availability of wind and photovoltaics is volatile, depending on By setting a price for CO2 emissions, emissions trading is intended to increase the marginal costs for generating electricity from coal. This helps bring less emission-intensive fossil fuels (i.e. natural gas) to the fore, and internalise external environmental costs (see Glossary). However, the required effect has not taken hold yet due to the low CO2 price. Figure 18: Percentage of renewable energy sources in Germany Renewables in % 36 40 35 32.6 30 35 27.4 25 20 13.2 15 12.5 18 14 13.7 5.3 10 10 5.6 5 0 Percentage within gross electricity consumption 1990 1995 2000 2005 energy consumption consumption for transport consumption for heating 2010 2014 2015* 2020 Target * Preliminary data Source: AGEE-Stat (2016, as of: February 2016) ENERGY SECTOR | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 3. Increasing energy efficiency Increasing energy efficiency is a critical third factor in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector. Energy productivity, that is the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to primary energy consumption, serves as a measure of energy efficiency with an increase target of 2.1 per annum by 2050.27 The decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption due to increasing energy productivity is the key to sustainable growth, as it means that more products can be made with less energy, so the country can continue to prosper. This decoupling has been achieved in Germany, as Figure 19 shows: on the one hand, the primary energy consumption has declined slightly on average. In spite of this, the economy continues to grow, as revealed by the increasing GDP. Accordingly, the energy productivity is also rising. Figure 19: Decoupling economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions and energy productivity Index 1990=100 180 160.2 160 145 140 120 100 88.9 80 73.1 60 40 20 0 1990 GDP 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Primary energy consumption 2002 2004 2006 Greenhouse gas emissions 2008 2010 2012 2014 Final energy productivity 37 38 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | ENERGY SECTOR Environmental innovationprogramme programme Environmental innovation Supported by the Environmental Innovation Programme (UIP), the municipal utilities of the city of Karlsruhe, for example, use industrial waste heat from a petroleum refinery to supply remote heat to the city. The potential is great: the project can supply 20,000 households and save approxiapproxmately imately65,000 65,000tonnes tonnesof ofCO CO2 2annually. annually. Source: www.umweltinnovationsprowww.umweltinnovationsprogramm.de gramm.de Current political measures The Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) makes Germany an international pioneer in the energy transition. The Renewable Energy Sources Act acts as a central subsidy instrument for the expansion of renewable energy, in particular through market-based instruments such as feed-in tariffs and direct marketing (see Glossary). Solar energy in particular has benefited from targeted support since the introduction of the EEG in 2000. The technology has a steep learning curve, allowing the (support) costs to be reduced constantly. For example, solar module prices have been reduced by over 70 per cent in the last ten years.28 Emissions trading, expansion of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) on the supply side and gradual closure of lignite power plants are central measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Emissions trading makes it more expensive to use fossil fuels, as companies must submit certificates for the resulting emissions. CHP support was expanded again in 2015, primarily with the aim of replacing coal-fired plants with natural gas-based plants and new natural gas-based projects.29 The draft law on the development of the electricity market adopted by the cabinet in November 2015 incorporates a gradual phase-out of old lignite power plants with a total output of 2.7 gigawatts (corresponding to 13 per cent of all lignite power plant capacity installed in Germany). That implements a substantial contribution of the electricity sector from the Climate Action Programme 2020. In addition to this, the discussion on further steps for the long-term phase-out of generating power supply from coal in Germany has started – for decarbonisation of the energy system which will eventually be necessary.30 Measures to increase energy efficiency aim in particular to reduce the demand for electricity, heat and cooling from public power plants. The Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) is currently working on a Green Paper on energy efficiency, which discusses further approaches to increase energy efficiency. A new KfW programme promoting waste heat use is also scheduled to start in June 2016. Examples of corresponding EU-wide directives, which have been implemented in German law, include the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) and Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). Another important political factor on the demand side (end consumers/households) is the European Ecodesign Directive, which is discussed in greater detail in Section 4.5 on private households. 4.3 Industry Emission developments In 2014, the industrial sector contributed 20 per cent to overall emissions in Germany. The industrial sector is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and has hardly developed in this area since 2005 (Figure 20). Emission fluctuations which have occurred depend largely on economic cycles. For example, emissions reached an intermediate high in 2007, also as a consequence of economic developments in the German construction industry, in particular the cement industry and a lasting boom in the demand for steel since the end of the 1990s. In 2009, the emissions decreased relatively strongly, as the demand for such products dropped temporarily due to the economic crisis. Emissions from combustion processes and internal power supply from industry are primarily attributed to the industrial sector (Figure 21). Industry is responsible for a significant percentage of emissions, which can be traced back to its sourcing of third party electricity – electricity that is not produced but consumed INDUSTRY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 100% 191 196 205 200 174 187 188 182 183 181 182 150 80% 207 200 243 250 283 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents Figure 20: Emission developments in industry 100 Figure 21: Emission sources in industry in 2014 66 % industrial furnaces* excluding CO2 from burnt biomass 60% 9 % other processes & product use 10 % metal manufacturing 40% 20% 50 0 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 4 % chemical industry 2015* Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) * Estimate Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) 11 % manufacturing of mineral products * Combustion processes, for example from internally – but which are reported in the energy sector in accordance with the source principle. Besides the energy-related emissions, there are process-related emissions, which always occur with chemical reactions in certain production processes.31 In 2015, industrial processes in mineral production, manufacturing of metal and the chemical industry emitted almost 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. That is equivalent to almost seven per cent of the overall emissions in Germany.32 Almost three quarters of the emissions in the industrial sector are caused by energy-intensive industry. This includes in particular the metal and chemical industry, as well as manufacturers of mineral products such as cement, and also the paper industry as well as mining and processing stone and soils. In 2015, the emissions from energy-intensive industry in emissions trading totalled 123 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents.33 Besides reductions in electricity consumption, measures to reduce the (process) heating requirement can also bring about emission reductions. Major electricity savings can be achieved by popularising innovative cross-section technologies, i.e. technologies used in different economic sectors. There are further potential savings in the use of energy-efficient pumps (five billion kilowatt hours), efficient lighting (nine billion kilowatt hours), and efficient ventilation (seven billion kilowatt hours) and compressed air systems (five billion kilowatt hours).34 Electricity savings will also have a positive effect on the energy industry balance in this area based on the source principle. Measures to reduce the heating requirement can also significantly reduce emissions in the industrial sector, as currently approximately two thirds of final energy consumption in the industrial sector is used for process heat.35 For example, when generating steam and hot water, which accounts for almost one third of process heat requirement, the energy requirement (and thus the emissions) can be significantly reduced through heat recovery and replacement of old systems. Special aspects Energy efficiency in production processes is critical to reduce emissions and energy costs in the industrial sector. Increased material efficiency and optimisation of production processes with new production lines and 39 40 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | INDUSTRY processes generally contribute to reducing the resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Manufacturers of energy-intensive products (for example, the cement or aluminium industry) have only used potential savings to a restricted extent, as companies often fear that energy saving measures will lead to process instability, for example, and the associated reduction in product quality.36 Companies from energy-intensive industries benefit from legal exemptions to restrict their energy costs. Reductions or compensation from the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and CHP levy, energy and electricity taxes and grid charges keep Germany attractive as an economic location even for energy cost-intensive industries. The reduction of the EEG levy is the most prominent example of this. The EEG levy finances the integration of renewable energy sources, largely allocating the costs to electricity consumers. Another important exemption is the peak adjustment, which reimburses companies from the manufacturing industry for part of the electricity and energy taxes paid. Since 2013, it has only been granted if the manufacturing industry as a whole reduces its energy intensity. That means the overall energy consumption relative to the sum total of the gross production values, in accordance with the legal targets. In addition to this, large companies are obliged to introduce a certified energymanagement and/or an environmental management system certified in accordance with ISO 50001; Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) can implement energy audits or an alternative system.37 Innovation box Innovation box“Industrie “Industrie4.0”: 4.0”: Industry in Germany is particularly shaped by its by itshistory long long history and the and focus the focus on quality on quality and high-tech and high-tech products underproducts the “Made under in Germany” the “Madebrand. in Germany” Other countries brand.are Other also countries well positioned are also in the well positioned global competition in the forglobal innovative competition products. With for innovative the “Industrie 4.0” products. initiative, Withthe theGerman “Industrie Federal 4.0” initiative,aims Government the German to advance Federal the digitisation Govern- of ment the Germany aims to economy. advance the Based digitisation on the term of the “Web Germany 2.0”, Industrie economy. 4.0 refers Based to the on the complete term “Web digital 2.0”, Industrie networking of4.0 all refers areas of to the the economy. complete That digital networking allows logistics of all and areas production of the economy. processes That to allows be optimised, logisticsand andproducts production aligned processes more with to be optimised, customer requirements. and products aligned more with customer requirements. “Industrie 4.0” also offers an option of making the electricity more flexible,ofallowing “Industrie 4.0”demand also offers an option volatile energy sources to be used making renewable the electricity demand more flexible, better. The percentage of volatile renewable allowing volatile renewable energy sources energy sources, which will continue to grow to be used better. The percentage of volatile in future, isenergy a challenge for which the grids. renewable sources, willMajor conelectricity consumers inisindustry thatfor arethe tinue to grow in future, a challenge flexible and can react rapidly to fluctuations grids. Major electricity consumers in industhanks efficient useto try thatto aredigitisation, flexible andpermit can react rapidly of renewablythanks generated electricity and also fluctuations to digitisation, permit stabilise efficient grids. use of renewably generated electricity and also stabilise grids. Sources: www.bmwi.de; bdi.eu; BMWi (2015f); www.bundesregierung.de Sources: www.bmwi.de; bdi.eu; BMWi (2015f); www.bundesregierung.de Project-specific company emissions are broken down into three different categories in accordance with the EU standard (ISO 14064-1:2006): Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. Scope 1 describes the direct emissions created for example by company vehicles or combustion of fuels on the company premises. Scope 2 includes all indirect energy-related emissions that occur as a consequence of company activities. However, the company is not directly responsible for them: for example the consumed energy (electricity and heat) or steam delivered by power supply companies. Scope 3 refers to indirect emissions which arise in the remainder of the value chain, such as emissions of external products used, business travel, administration, waste disposal. Current political measures The most important measures in the industrial sector to date are EU emissions trading, financial support for efficiency measures and regulating other emissions. For example, the German Federal Government offers incentives for investments in higher energy productivity via KfW subsidy programmes as well as other subsidy directives of the German Federal Government, and promotes increased use of renewable energy sources to supply electricity and heat. There are also regulations to reduce emissions of fluorinated gases. As in the energy sector, industrial companies INDUSTRY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES subject to emissions trading must report on greenhouse gas emissions and provide evidence of corresponding certificates. In the industrial and commerce, trade and services sector, support to increase energy efficiency generally serve to reduce economic barriers, for example high investments or longer amortisation periods, and also to tap further potential. As in the energy sector, the current measures are to be implemented ambitiously in accordance with the Climate Action Programme and the National Energy Efficiency Plan (NAPE), for example through energy efficiency networks and by enhancing emissions trading and implementing the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). The EED contains specific requirements and specifications, for example binding energy audits for major companies; this was implemented in Germany by revising the Energy Services Act (EDL-G). The competitive electricity efficiency tender (“STEPup!”), from 2016 on, is an innovative and important instrument to increase electricity savings in companies, with best possible cost-benefit ratios: in an initial pilot phase, companies are to be motivated to implement innovative electricity efficiency measures with an amortisation period of over three years, by submitting them in a competition for funding. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) covers roughly half of German emissions. For the remaining emissions, a binding distribution of the further emission savings to the EU Member States was agreed from 2013 (“Effort Sharing”, see Section 3.2). This covers almost all emissions outside the EU-ETS. The remainder includes emissions from international aviation (Figure 22). Non-economic barriers include in particular the lack of information and deficiencies in organisation and networking of stakeholders, and are to be rectified Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents Figure 22: Emission developments inside and outside the emissions trading system 1200 1000 2015 Total 908 519 524 487 504 482 800 Emissions outside the emissions trading system (from 2013 without effort sharing) in million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 490 475 478 468 447 448* 600 750 400 475 478 487 473 428 455 450 453 481 461 456 Emissions outside the emissions trading system covered by effort sharing in million tonnes of CO2 equivalents Emissions in emissions trading within Germany in million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 200 2020 target 0 2005 2010 2015** 2020 * For 2015 emissions outside the emissions trading system with and without effort sharing **Overall emissions in 2015 based on estimates Source: DEHSt (2016), BMUB (2015f) 41 42 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | INDUSTRY with innovative projects and initiatives. Examples of national projects include “Learning Energy Efficiency Networks” by the National Climate Initiative, and the current “Energy Efficiency Networks Initiative” in the National Energy Efficiency Plan (NAPE) with the target of forming roughly 500 networks by 2020, which are to choose and pass specific savings targets independently. The implementation of energy management systems (ISO 50001) and environmental management systems (EMAS, ISO 14001) have been driven forward at a corporate level for several years (see Section 5.4). The “Energy Consulting Service for Medium-Sized Companies” aims to reduce information deficits in order to maximise energy saving potential in SMEs and was supplemented with waste heat use advice services in 2015. 4.4 Transport Emission developments In 2014, the transport sector contributed 18 per cent to the overall emissions in Germany. That makes transport the third-largest cause of emissions in Germany, with most coming from road traffic. It includes fuel consumption for road, rail (with diesel locomotives), waterways and in national aviation, i.e. the fuel filled in Germany (Figure 24). By contrast, the electricity used in railways is incorporated in the energy sector, i.e. not calculated in the emission development in the transport sector. After a stagnation phase, the overall emissions in the transport sector have been growing again since 2012 (Figure 23). In particular in road-based freight transport, the absolute CO2 emissions have increased due to the increased traffic, as the efficiency (measured in grams of CO2 per tonne-kilometre) of the vehicles has hardly improved. By contrast, passenger vehicles have become more efficient overall (measured in grams of CO2 per person-kilometre). However, as the demand here also continues to increase, the emission level has remained stable overall. Compared with the reference year 1990, the overall emissions in the transport sector have decreased slightly, by less than two per cent, and not at all compared with 2005. In 2015, over 60 million vehicles were on German roads, including overover 44 million on German roads, including 44 38 38 passenger cars. cars. million passenger In the coming years, electricity will play an increasingly important role in the transport sector, as electromobility will be supported more in particular in addition to the further expansion of rail transport. The German Federal Government has set itself a target of putting one million electric vehicles on Germany’s roads by 2020; the number of electric vehicles is to increase to six million by 2030. In particular in cities, local public transport helps protect the climate. This can be improved by using more electricity. For example, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) calls for the use of hybrid buses. Over short and medium distances, cycling and walking helps reduce CO2 emissions. Electric bicycles, such as pedelecs and e-bikes, play an increasing role in this area. In recent years, the market share of electric bicycles has grown strongly, reaching 12.5 per cent in 2015.39 Reductions in greenhouse gases focus on reducing emissions from cars in spite of increases in road traffic. This is largely due to the CO2 targets for cars and light commercial vehicles and governed by Europewide regulations. The targets set for new vehicles refer to the average figure for the total EU vehicle fleet. With a target curve related to the vehicle weight, targets are derived for the individual manufacturers’ new vehicle fleets. Until 2015, new cars were not allowed to emit more than 130 grams of CO2 per kilometre on average. In 2014, a limit of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre on average was defined for all new cars registered from 2021. For light commercial vehicles, the targets are 175 g CO2 per kilometre (2017) and 147 g CO2 per kilometre (2020). To date, consumption is measured for cars and light commercial vehicles based on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), which simulates a driving cycle in urban and extra-urban traffic. However, it has come in for criticism, as it has repeatedly been proven (most recently in 2014 by the International Council on Clean Transportation) that real consumption deviates increasingly from the standard consumption calculated. A transition to the more realistic “Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure” proposed by the United Nations is currently in preparation. By contrast, TRANSPORT | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES there are currently no CO2 target figures for heavy commercial vehicles. In 2014, the European Commission announced that it would submit specific measure plans, but has not specified them yet. In order to report emissions from the transport sector accurately, the emissions that occur in other sectors should also be considered in future. For example, this concerns emissions when generating electricity used in electric vehicles or to produce electricity-based fuels. Special aspects Even in 2014, the transport sector depends virtually exclusively at 93.7 per cent on petroleum as an energy source. In spite of various efforts such as tax reliefs for electric and natural gas-driven vehicles, the percentage remains high. This dependency is clearly illustrated by the cars currently on the road: in 2015, 98.4 per cent of the registered cars ran on petrol or diesel.40 Figure 24: Emission sources in the transport sector in 2014 (excluding CO2 from biofuels) 100% 160 156 153 153 152 153 155 154 158 160 164 181 177 150 163 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents Figure 23: Emission developments in the transport sector 100 50 Biofuels are an important instrument for reaching the European reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions from fuels in road traffic, and for reaching the EU target of achieving a share of ten per cent of renewable energy sources by 2020 in the transport sector. By doing so, they supplement in particular measures to reduce the specific fuel consumption and shift consumption towards diesel vehicles for new vehicles registered. In the long term, fuels generated from electricity, such as Power-to-Gas (PtG) methane and Power-to-Liquid (PtL), that is generation of methane or liquid fuel via chemical processes using green electricity, will play an important role (see the “Power-to-Liquid” innovation box). This applies wherever chemical fuels are difficult to replace – in particular in aviation and maritime transport. 34 % commercial road vehicles 80% 60% 1 % national aviation 40% 1 % diesel trains 20% 0 1 % coastal & inland shipping 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2 % other emissions 2015* 61 % passenger road vehicles Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) * Estimate Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) 43 44 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | TRANSPORT Climate action measures can only be attributed to the national greenhouse gas reduction target for national maritime transport, not for international maritime transport. As a contribution to global climate action, additional measures are supported at European and international levels, for example through the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Since 2012, aviation has been part of European emissions trading. While it was originally planned to incorporate all flights originating and landing in the EU, only flights within the European Economic Area are incorporated until the end of 2016. A new decision on the introduction of a global market-based climate action measure must be made at the end of the year based on the negotiations of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) for the structure of the EU-ETS scope of application from 2017 on. In operation, electric motors do not emit any CO2 or other pollutants. Accordingly, combining electric vehicles with electricity from renewable energy sources is the key to avoiding CO2 from fossil fuels and other pollutants entirely. However, a study by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) shows that electric vehicles already cause lower greenhouse gas levels with the current German electricity mix (see Section 4.2) than comparable vehicles with combustion engines.41 Innovation box Innovation box“Power-to-Liquid”: “Power-to-Liquid”: A lot of people speak of electromobility when it comes toto reducing greenhouse gases inin the transit comes reducing greenhouse gases the port sector, but itbut stillitonly for a minor transport sector, still accounts only accounts for percentage of the overall At the same time, a minor percentage of thefleet. overall fleet. At the research is underway find waystotofind replace same time, research isto underway ways to harmful fuels like diesel alternative liquid replace harmful fuels likewith diesel with alternafuels, which can which be produced electricity tive liquid fuels, can beusing produced using from renewable energy sources. They can be electricity from renewable energy sources. They used inused vehicles where electric drives cannot can be in vehicles where electric drives be used (e.g. aviation). is one cannot beinused (e.g. in“Power-to-Liquid” aviation). “Power-to-Liqsuch producing such as synthetic uid” isprocess, one such process, fuels producing fuels such diesel from CO as synthetic diesel fromand COgreen ,2 water ,2 water electricity. and greenFor electricity. this purpose, Forwater this purpose, is first broken waterdown is firstinto broken down hydrogen into(H) hydrogen and oxygen (H) and (O2)oxygen (O2) using using electrolysis. electrolysis. In a second step, In a second the CO2step, the CO2 istoconvertis converted carbon ed monoxide to carbon (CO). monoxide The third (CO). stepThe is to third combine step isHto combine and CO into H and hydrocarbons. CO into hydrocarbons. Source: www.bmbf.de; www.cleanenergy-project.de www.cleanenergy-project.de Current political measures The German Federal Government’s climate action targets and a specific final energy consumption target apply for the transport sector. In order to reduce emissions in the transport sector, the German Federal Government relies on both more efficient vehicles with lower consumption, as well as on increased use of electricity as an energy source. The technological requirements for this were created in recent years. TRANSPORT | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Multi-modal (combining various means of transport) services and new mobility concepts such as car sharing complement this. In accordance with the “Displace Improve - Avoid” triangle, climate action in transport is to be further enhanced with a package of measures specified in the Climate Action Programme 2020. Urban and zoning aspects, as well as the compact city concept will play a role in this. The German Federal Government has been promoting electromobility since 2007. Frameworks for action were put in place in 2009 with the “National Electromobility Development Plan” and 2011 with the “Federal Programme for Electromobility”. In 2014, a new electromobility law drawn up by the Federal Ministries of Transport and the Environment was passed, governing in particular labelling and privileged status. Other examples include the “Electromobility Showcase” subsidy programme, which aims to pool and promote Germany’s expertise in electric vehicles, power supply and transport systems in large-scale regional demonstration and pilot projects as a form of interface. The “Renewably Mobile” programme also promotes projects which position electric vehicles as marketable environmental innovations. Measures also focus on intelligent tax incentives and technology-neutral incentive programmes, such as KfW development loans for efficient vehicles, to accelerate replacement of existing vehicles and market penetration of particularly efficient vehicles. Biofuels are part of the approach of phasing out fossil energy sources virtually completely in the long term. For this, the biofuels must result in savings of at least 35 per cent (at least 50 per cent from 2018 on) of greenhouse gas emissions compared with fossil fuels. In accordance with the biofuel sustainability regulations, this must take the entire manufacturing and supply chain into account. 4.5 Private households Emission developments Compared with the other sectors, private households have reached the third highest greenhouse gas reduction since 1990. In 2014, nine per cent of emissions in Germany came from the “Private households” sector, a significant decrease compared with the previous year (Figure 25). The private households category almost exclusively groups emissions caused by combustion processes in residential buildings (in particular fuels for space and water heating) (Figure 26). additionto tothe thecommerce, commerce,trade trade and serIn addition and services sector sectorand andindustry, industry,private private households vices households were among amongthe thesectors sectorswhere wherethe thehighest highest were savings were weremade madesince since1990, 1990,with with emissavings anan emission decrease decreaseof of35 35per percent centbyby2014. 2014. sion The private households sector does not include buildings used for business and commercial purposes (non-residential buildings), as they are considered separately in the commerce, trade and services sector, as well as buildings from the industrial sector. Many special features and political measures apply both for residential and non-residential buildings and are considered below. The commerce, trade and services section (4.6) only mentions additional aspects. Due to reporting based on the source principle, consumption-relevant aspects such as electricity consumption, mobility and nutrition are not included in this sector. Special aspects Emissions in the household sector are highly dependent on the weather conditions. Heating currently accounts for two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions in private households. Accordingly, annually fluctuating weather conditions have a significant influence on the emissions in this sector. For example, 2014 was unusually warm, which contributed to the strong savings mentioned. 45 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS Figure 25: Emission developments in households 108 100 107 91 95 101 85 88 89 112 114 80 119 100 Figure 26: Emissions of energy sources in households in 2014 (excluding CO2 from biomass) 100% 130 120 131 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 46 60 80% 45 % combustion of liquid fuels 2 % combustion of solid fuels 60% 40% 40 20% 20 0 52 % combustion of gases 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015* Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) * Estimate 1 % combustion of biomass (excl. CO2 from biomass) Three quarters of residential buildings were built before the first Thermal Insulation Ordinance of 1979. These older buildings in particular require substantial refurbishment measures to increase energy efficiency. The KfW support scheme for energy related renovations of old buildings is meant to improve the efficiency of the housing stock. Despite a decrease in the heating demand per square metre the energy demand per person does not necessarily decrease to the same extent. At the same time it is observed that the living space per person has been increasing over recent decades. Current political measures In the private household sector, a mix of European and national requirements and subsidy programmes are used. Central regulatory foundations for more climate action in the entire building sector include the Energy Savings Act (EnEG), the Energy Savings Ordinance (EnEV), the Renewable Energy Heat Act (EEWärmeG) and the Small Furnace Ordinance (1st Federal Immision Control Act (BImSchV). Among other things, the Energy Savings Ordinance requires energy perfor- Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) mance certificates to evaluate the energy condition of buildings. Economic incentives to save energy are set in taxation of heating fuels and consumption-dependent billing for tenants and apartment owners in apartment buildings supplied centrally with heat, as required in the Heating Cost Ordinance (HeizkostenV). Subsidy programmes like the KfW subsidy programmes for energy-efficient building and refurbishment and the Market Incentive Programme for use of renewable energy sources in the heating and cooling market (MAP) also offer further positive financial incentives. Finally, information instruments such as the energy efficiency label for heating systems play an important role to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by private households. The Climate Action Programme 2020 and the National Climate Initiative (NAPE) include various immediate measures and work processes to increase energy efficiency and greater climate action. PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES The Federal Government aims to make Germany’s building stock virtually climate-neutral by 2050. For this purpose, environmentally and climate-friendly building, energy-related urban and district development and energy efficiency in the building sector must go hand in hand. This is why the German Federal Government passed a Building Efficiency Strategy in 2015. It aims to integrate the electricity, heat and efficiency areas in the building sector. The Building Efficiency Strategy forms part of the “Climate-friendly building and living” strategy as part of the Climate Action Plan 2050. It combines energy efficiency with other climate action measures and also deals with fundamental aspects of living, including affordability, district and urban development, utilisation of rural areas and challenges of demographic change. The “Climate-friendly building and living” strategy is an important step on the way to a virtually climate-neutral building stock by 2050. To reduce emissions, changes in consumer behaviour must also be brought about. Some of these emission reductions are attributed to other sectors due to the source principle – e.g. due to lower electricity consumption in the energy industry for saved emissions. The “National Programme for Sustainable Consumption” passed by the German Federal Government in February 2016 aims to coordinate approaches at a national level to promote sustainable consumption and enhance consumer competence. The superordinate approaches include education, consumer information and sustainable public procurement. In addition to this, mobility, nutrition, living and households are addressed as areas with the greatest environmental relief potential in sustainable consumption. For example, this reveals measures that support behavioural changes to more economical heating habits. The EU Ecodesign and Energy Consumption Labelling Directive is a central energy efficiency measure: the Ecodesign Directive sets minimum standards for energy consumption of products and was supplemented in 2015 with new, stricter requirements for selected devices like coffee machines or boilers. Criteria for environmental friendliness and service life are included for some categories. Labelling energy consumption of products as part of the Energy Consumption Labelling Directive also informs consumers about their purchase decision.42 4.6 Commerce, trade and services Emission developments In 2014, the commerce, trade and services sector contributed four per cent to overall emissions. The relatively low emissions are primarily due to non-residential buildings – such as companies, accommodation, restaurants and bars, homes and retail outlets – which are not incorporated in the private households sector. The greatest potential in this sector is in thermal insulation, in particular. The way buildings are heated and the use of heat in kitchens for example also play an important role (Figure 28). In addition to this, building cooling will become increasingly relevant in future, as more and more air conditioning systems are in use in non-residential buildings. Emissions from electricity and district heat generation are attributed to the energy industry sector based on the source principle. From 1990 to 2014, greenhouse gas emissions in the commerce, trade and services sector have have reduced by almost per cent. been been reduced by almost 57 per57cent. This primarily depends on the continuously increasing energy productivity in the commerce, trade and services sector, which grew by roughly 32 per cent between 2000 and 2014.43 That is due to improved thermal insulation, increasing automation and process optimisation as well as modernisation of the machines and systems used.44 However, as in the households sector, the emissions fluctuated repeatedly in recent years due to changing weather conditions (Figure 27). Special aspects The energy consumption structures and therefore the necessary savings measures in the commerce, trade and services sector, some of which have already been implemented, overlap with the private households and industrial sectors in particular. As an energy source, electricity has grown from 24 per cent in 1990 to almost 40 per cent in 2014. This trend will continue based on the increasing automation.45 47 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | COMMERCE, TRADE AND SERVICES Current political measures commerce, trade and services sector by contrast to the private households sector. Current measures are largely the same as the described measures in the private households and industrial sectors. As in the private households sector, subsidy measures by the German Federal Government help reduce barriers and tap further potential. Subsidy programmes aim to promote the use of Best Available Technologies (BAT). For the KfW programmes, the energy savings compared with the industry average are the basis on which new investments in energy efficiency of production facilities are assessed, for example. Energy efficiency requirements for buildings, processes and products have led to significant emission reductions. For example, this includes incentive measures to increase energy efficiency from buildings, regulatory requirements such as the Energy Savings Ordinance (EnEV) at a national level or the Ecodesign and Energy Consumption Labelling Directive at an EU level, which addresses the producer side in the 80 100% 78 80% 58 60 39.7 % combustion of liquid fuels 0.2 % combustion of solid fuels 44 39 42 38 36 39 34 35 20 37 42 48 60% 48 40 Further measures rely in particular on energy consulting and promotion for small and medium-sized companies to tap energy saving potential. For example, from 2008 to 2013, the “Energy Consulting Service for Medium-sized Companies” by the Federal Ministry for Economics and Energy, which appeals to both the commerce, trade and services and industrial sectors, has advised 17,000 companies. This resulted in investments of 0.7 to 1.4 billion euros and energy savings of 1.5 to 2.7 terawatt hours. The “Medium-sized Company Initiative for the Energy Transition and Climate Action” aims to tap energy saving potential in companies from the trade, crafts and commerce sectors. Among others the KfW energy efficiency programme offers financing for new buildings and refurbishment of non-residential buildings as low-interest loans.46 Figure 28: Emissions of energy sources in CTS in 2014 (excluding CO2 from biomass) Figure 27: Emission developments in commerce / trade / services (CTS) Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 48 40% 20% 0 60.1 % combustion of gases 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015* Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) * Estimate 0.1 % combustion of biomass (excluding CO2 from biomass) Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) COMMERCE, TRADE AND SERVICES | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Innovation: Energy Innovation: Energyexchange exchange As part of the National Climate Initiative, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) supports climate action projects in industrial parks (that means both commercial and smaller industrial companies), in which the energy consumption of neighbouring companies is to be used more efficiently and managed better. By exchanging energy between multiple companies in an industrial park, the energy efficiency of the participatparticipating companies ing companies is toisbe toincreased, be increased, andand the the energy demand managed such that the demand cancan demand bebe reduced, reduced, saving saving energy energy (load (load management). For example, a company could meet part of its heating requirements requirements by using bysurplus using surplus waste heat waste from heata from neigha neighbouring bouring company. company. Source: www.bmub.bund.de 4.7 Waste and recycling management Emission developments The emissions in the waste and recycling management sector have decreased at an above-average rate compared with other sectors since 1990, at almost 66 per cent, totalling 13 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2014 (Figure 29). The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) also reports other emissions in this sector (see Figure 11), primarily for water management. That means that all emissions from landfill gases, as well as emissions from waste management are included. In total, the two emission sources accounted for almost 90 per cent of the total emissions in the sector in 2014 (Figure 30). The comparatively low contribution to the total climate-relevant emissions in Germany by the waste and recycling management sector was just over one per cent in 2014. The significant reductions in the waste and recycling management sector, in particular in methane emissions, can be traced back to the ban on depositing biodegradable municipal waste in landfills. Additional effects result from using waste to produce energy, and increased recycling in particular of glass, paper and cardboard, as well as metals and plastics. Special aspects Germany is an international pioneer in implementing climate and resource-friendly recycling management. This includes in particular reusing processed raw materials via recycling after their service life in a product. The transition from a throwaway society to responsible recycling management was largely implemented through regulations in the past. It involves systematic collection and sorting of waste and recycling of the material and energy, and/or use of waste to generate electricity and heat. Secondary raw materials replace raw materials in the economy. Energy recycling of waste makes a key ecological contribution to saving fossil fuels. Germany has world leading recycling rates for some materials. 49 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | WASTE AND RECYCLING MANAGEMENT Figure 29: Emission developments in waste management and other** 40 38 100% 38 10 85 % waste 5 % wastewater treatment 9 % biological treatment of solid waste 60% 22 20 19 18 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 20 Figure 30: Emission sources in waste management in 2014 (excl. CO2 from biomass) 80% 30 29 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 50 40% 20% 1 % others 0% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015* * Estimate ** Excluding credit from recycling and energy generation Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) Germany recycles recycles over over90 90per percent centof ofsteel steel packaging, for for example. example.Use Useof ofsecondary secondary raw materials materials in in steel steelproduction productionisisover over 45 per cent, cent, and and approximately approximately74 74per percent cent and 90 per cent cent for forpaper paperand andglass glassproducproduction respectively. respectively.4747 Current political measures In spite of the considerable success to date in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in waste and recycling management, there is still a potential for reduction that is to be tapped with a mix of measures. For this purpose, the Climate Action Programme 2020 involves implementing the Waste Avoidance Programme 2013, a review of measures for recycling electrical appliances and bulky waste and to promote the durability and re-usability of products. In addition to this, recycling is to be enhanced by advancing the packaging regulations and the commercial waste ordinance. Also, measures to ventilate and stabilise landfills will be promoted to further reduce the emission of methane from old landfills. However, some of the emissions saved in these programmes occur in the industrial and commerce, trade and services sectors and are therefore reported there. AGRICULTURE | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 4.8 Agriculture Special aspects Emission developments The contribution of agriculture to overall emissions has increased slightly compared with the previous year. In 2014, it accounted for almost eight per cent. The emissions from the agricultural sector come from animal husbandry, fertiliser management and fuel consumed in agriculture (Figure 32). From 1990 to 2014, greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector decreased by almost 19 per cent (Figure 31). The reductions to date in the agricultural sector result primarily from the decrease in animal stocks due to the structural change in the new Federal States, the environmental requirements of the common EU agricultural politics, improved fertiliser management and an increased coupling of animal densities to surface areas. 100% 69 68 67 70 69 68 70 69 71 72 72 80% 73 75 88 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 60 40 Ecological farming can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 50 per cent per hectare compared with conventional farming, avoiding mineral fertiliser and chemical/synthetic pesticides. Another contribution to reducing greenhouse gases can be achieved by restricting the number of animals based on the farm size. In 2014, approximately 6.3 per cent of Germany’s total agricultural area in use was farmed organically.48 The German Federal Government is aiming to increase this share to 20 per cent. Figure 32: Emission sources in agriculture in 2014 (excluding CO2 from biomass) Figure 31: Emission developments in agriculture** 80 Unlike other sectors, the climate balance in the agricultural sector does not consist of CO2 emissions; it consists primarily of CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous oxide) emissions. Methane is emitted mainly by the digestion of ruminant animals, especially by dairy cows. In agriculture, N2O is caused by nitrogen-based fertiliser and animal husbandry. In spite of this, organic soils in agricultural use emit significant quantities of CO2, which is not however reported in the agricultural sector, but in the land use sector (see Section 4.9). 37 % agricultural soil 20 20% 0 0% 2010 1 % urea use 60% 2 % others 40% 1990 1995 2000 2005 3 % liming 8 % stationary greenhouses etc.) as well as agricultural transport 2015* * Estimate ** Including agricultural transport Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) 14 % fertiliser management Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) 35 % animal husbandry 51 52 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | AGRICULTURE Current political measures The subsidy policy in the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) determines the structure of national agricultural policy. For decades, farmers received state-guaranteed minimum prices, which were gradually reduced by the 1992 MacSharry Reform. Instead, farmers received farm size-based direct payments, primarily intended as income support, which are the first pillar of the CAP. The second pillar comprises specific support programmes for sustainable and environmentally friendly farming and rural development. With an annual average total of 4.85 billion euros (2014-2020), the focus is on the first pillar, accounting for almost 80 per cent of the total CAP subsidy budget. The second cornerstone of CAP is financed via the “European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development“, via which, among other things, voluntary agri-environment-climate measures (AEM) at the State level, are supported.49 In addition to this, the switch to ecological farming is primarily funded via subsidy programmes from the second CAP cornerstone. The most important subsidy for ecological farming at a state level is embedded in the framework plan for the Joint Task “Improvement of the Agricultural Structure and Coastal Protection”. The bonuses for maintaining or switching to ecological farming are defined by the states, depending on the political priorities for support and on the state funds available.50 The “Federal Programme for Ecological Farming and other Forms of Sustainable Agriculture” is another funding programme, currently resourced with 17 million euros. The German Fertiliser Ordinance (DüV) defines the requirements for good practice in fertilisation in greater detail. An amendment to the DüV, which is currently being coordinated, aims to improve the nitrogen use among other things, and the reduction of surplus nitrogen and contributes in this way to further necessary reduction of the N2O emissions. 4.9 Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) Emission developments The LULUCF sector reduced the overall emissions in 2014 by 14.98 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents net, making it a CO2 sink in Germany. In 2014, timber products and forests stored approximately 60.14 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. At the same time, intensive use emitted 45.16 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents (1.79 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents more than in 2013); 30.43 million tonnes of this came from converted grassland, settlements, wetlands and liming of forest soils (“Other”, Figure 34). The agricultural use of arable land released around a further 14.73 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents (Figure 33). 1990 and and2014, 2014,the thesink sinkfunction functionofof Between 1990 agricultural soils soilsand andforestry forestrydecreased decreasedover over52 agricultural 52 per cent, significant fluctuations. per cent, butbut withwith significant fluctuations. Land use, land use change and forestry can be both a source of emissions and absorb greenhouse gases (sink). Soils and vegetation are natural storage vessels for carbon and carbon compounds. However, with intensive use, the CO2 stored there in particular is released. For example, this occurs when grassland is converted to arable land (conversion). Accordingly, land use turns natural storage vessels into sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable forestry and extensive grassland use can reduce the release of stored CO2. Special aspects Greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry have not been incorporated in assessments on the achievement of national and European climate action targets up to now. Compared with other sectors, emissions reporting presents methodological difficulties. The storage capacity of soils and vegetation is susceptible to external dangers such as LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES -18.7 -18.0 -16.3 -15.7 -14.5 -14.3 -15.0 -12.1 -12.4 -11.9 -10 -20 60 50 40 Difference: 15.0 0.1 3.5 3.9 57.8 30 22.9 20 -38.0 -33.1 -30 Figure 34: Emissions and sinks LULUCF 2014 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 2014 2010 2005 2000 1995 0 -31.3 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents 1990 Figure 33: Emission developments in LULUCF (incl. sinks) 10 -40 14.7 2.3 0 Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) Arable land Wetlands Grassland Settlements Others (0.1) Timber products (sinks) Forests (sink) Source: UBA (2016a, as of: March 2016) forest fires or insect attacks, which can reduce it. Anthropogenic climate action due to forestry work is also extremely difficult to distinguish from fluctuations in natural storage effects. Current political measures There is significant greenhouse gas reduction potential in the land use, land use change and forestry sector. As a result, it is incorporated in the Action Programme 2020. In Germany, grassland decreased roughly 11.3 per cent between 1991 and 2014.51 If permanent grassland is converted, more CO2 is released faster than can be bound by creating new grassland areas. As a result, preservation of permanent grassland is a core element of the action programme. Preservation of permanent grassland is to be implemented in particular via greening as part of the CAP, i.e. linking the payment of part of the direct payments to specific environmental achievements, and setting priorities when structuring the agri-environmental climate measures (see Section 4.8). Only six per cent of the total agricultural land is peatland. In spite of this, roughly 80 per cent of emissions from agriculturally used soil is from peatland used for agriculture. Accordingly, the percentage of total emissions caused by peatland is disproportionately high, accounting for roughly four per cent of nationwide greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, protecting peatland is therefore an explicit goal of the German Federal Government. In accordance with the Climate Action Programme 2020, measures to increase the water level are to be promoted, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from dried peatlands. 53 54 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | WHAT DOES CLIMATE ACTION MEAN FOR THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY? 5. What does climate action mean for the economy and for society? the economy and society? German climate policy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus avoid climate change and its negative effects as much as possible. At the same time, efforts to protect the climate also offer many other positive side-effects (co-benefits) for the economy and society: • Avoiding greenhouse gas emissions often also reduces emissions of other harmful gases and particles, improving air quality. Climate policy also includes protection against inevitable effects of climate change, such as droughts or floods. • Climate action in Germany has created more jobs than have been lost by shutting down polluting power plants. • Continuously increasing investments in climate action benefits companies in green tech industry. That impacts in particular the markets for energy efficiency and environmentally friendly production (including renewable energy sources), as well as storing and distributing energy (see Section 5.4). • Technological innovations for climate action contribute to Germany’s economic success.52 Implementation of climate measures in companies and households saves emissions and energy costs. • Low-emission energy generation from renewable energy sources decreases the dependency on raw material imports, increasing the energy security in Germany. • Climate action offers diverse participation options: citizens can influence sustainability in their area in schools and clubs, energy cooperatives, companies and municipalities. IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND HEALTH | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 5.1 Impact on the environment and health The effects of climate change on the environment and human health can be seen worldwide. The effects of climate change are particularly strong in southern hemisphere countries, but can also already be seen in Germany today. They include increased illnesses and fatalities due to heat waves, agriculture adversely affected by extended dry periods, heavy rains and floods, and the spread of non-indigenous flora and fauna (see Section 2.1). Climate action helps restrict these effects, both by avoiding them and by adapting to them. Non-renewable raw materials are preserved and natural habitats are secured. If we burn all fossil fuels documented, that would far exceed the capacity limits of the climate system. Researchers assume that roughly four fifths of fossil fuels documented must stay in the earth to stay within the 2 °C cap. Specific climate action measures can promote sustainable management and preservation of natural resources. At the same time, this contributes to preserving diversity, by protecting natural habitats for animals and plants. i “Transient climate-relevant pollutants” Transient climate-relevant pollutants include methane, tropospheric ozone and black carbon. While they have a far lower retention time in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide (CO (CO2), theirgreenhouse greenhousegas gaspopo), their 2 tential is ten to one thousand times higher. They occur primarily during (incomplete) combustion processes, for example in diesel engines and coal mines. Avoiding emissions of transient, climate-relevant pollutants has a direct positive influence on human health. Transient, climate-active pollutants contribute directly to air and environmental pollution. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), they are the largest environmental health risk in Europe.53 The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2012, roughly seven million early deaths were caused by air pollution.54 That is twice as much as previously assumed, and represents one eighth of deaths worldwide. In Germany, air pollution caused over 40,000 deaths in 2010 according to the OECD – more than any other country in Europe, exceeded only by China, India, the USA and Japan.55 Many climate action measures not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they also restrict transient climate-impacting pollutants like black carbon (see information box) and thus have a direct positive influence on air quality. Figure 35 gives an overview of different positive (side) effects of climate action. 5.2 Job creation Companies from the environmental technology and resource efficiency sectors employ an estimated 1.5 million people in Germany. With over 350,00056 jobs in 2014, renewable energy sources are an important driver for the German economy. In particular, the number of employees in the wind power sector has grown continuously due to the increasing investments. Energy efficiency technologies, such as efficiency measures for new buildings and renovations have a positive effect on employment in Germany. For 2013, the estimated number of employees in the energy efficiency market is between 510,000 and 850,000.57 Climate action in Germany has created more jobs than have been lost by shutting down polluting power plants.58 Both environmental and efficiency technologies, and renewable energy have significantly surpassed the conventional energy industry, which provided just under 213,000 jobs in 2013.59 Since the early 1990s, the number of employees in the conventional energy sector has more than halved. At the same time, the numbers of employees in the renewable energy environment have risen, and, in spite of the decline in employment in recent years, they are more than twice the figures ten years ago, at 355,400 employees in 2014 (Figure 36). 55 56 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | JOB CREATION Figure 35: Positive effects due to climate action Investments and technological innovations Preservation of non-sustainable raw materials and vulnerable landscapes, Damage avoided in agriculture, forestry and water management Avoidance of air pollution and improving the air quality Increased energy security Species protection, preservation of biodiversity Damage avoided in the insurance industry ECONOMIC ECOLOGICAL POSITIVE EFFECTS DUE TO CLIMATE ACTION SOCIAL Health Society Lower output of harmful pollutants Ways for consumers and municipalities to participate Reduced propagation of pathogens Damage avoided through extreme weather events Source: Own diagram 5.3 Investments in climate action In 2015, 12.7 billion euros was invested in expanding renewable energies. Accordingly, the total investment in 2015 is significantly lower than in the previous year (2014: 18.9 billion euros). This is not due to decreasing expansion figures, but largely down to decreasing costs: although 2015 was the second-strongest wind expansion year, investments in wind turbines decreased by two billion euros (Figure 37). A similar decline in costs was apparent in the development of photovoltaic systems in 2011. At 9.7 billion euros, wind power (offshore and on land) tops the list of investments in 2015, currently accounting for two thirds of all investments in renewable energy sources in Germany.60 The energy efficiency requirements in the building sector create a strong investment effect, as promotion of efficiency measures also stimulates further investments in the construction industry. In recent years, INVESTMENTS IN CLIMATE ACTION | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Figure 36: Development of gross employment due to renewable energy sources in Germany 399.8 300 355.4 350 367.4 in thousands 400 250 200 2004 2010 2012 Biomass 2014 Hydropower Geothermal energy 3.4 7.5 7.3 8.0 120.9 113.9 49.3 Solar energy 1.8 13.3 16.4 17.2 Wind energy 7.6 9.5 12.9 11.8 Total 56.8 63.59 50 25.1 96.1 100 122.0 127.5 119.9 121.8 149.2 160.5 150 Publicly funded research/ administration Source: BMWi (2015a) the development bank Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) assumed a multiplier of 1:13 – that means that for every euro of KfW-funded efficiency investments, 13 euros of additional investments were made. The energy relevant costs for investments in the building stock were estimated at 52.3 billion euros for 2014. In recent years, the high sales figures for insulation and modern windows indicate increased energy refurbishment activities. However, refurbishment work should always be socially compatible, to ensure that energy refurbished residences remain affordable, even for households with low and medium incomes. Investments in the expansion of renewable energy lead to investments in the energy system. The electricity grid infrastructure will be adapted to the changed requirements of an increased share of renewable energies in the system. In 2014, roughly 4.7 billion euros was invested in the construction of new infrastructure and enhancing electricity grids in Germany. Investments by German companies in climate-friendly products and markets are stable. According to the GreenTech Atlas (environmental technology atlas for Germany), the average percentage of turnover for 57 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | INVESTMENTS IN CLIMATE ACTION research and development expenditure of over 2,000 surveyed Germany companies in the environmental technology and resource efficiency sectors is three per cent.61 Investments in the production sector in environmental and climate action have increased steadily since 2009 (Figure 37). In 2013, investments by companies totalled 7.51 billion euros. The largest share of investments Figure 37: Selected investments in climate and environmental action 30 Billions of euros 58 25 1 2.6 1.2 1.1 20 3 3.1 1.1 19.4 15 15 1.2 10 1.1 13.6 2.5 8 4.37 0.3 1.2 1.62 2008 0.5 2.5 4.15 3.95 1.63 2009 1.88 2 2010 4.93 4.2 0.3 0.3 12.3 9.7 4.76 4.72 1 6.6 11.2 5 0 1 3.9 2.3 2.38 0.3 1.6 2011 Investments by manufacturing industry in environmental action (excluding climate action) 2.46 2012 0.3 1.4 2.58 2013 2.3 0.1 1.3 2014 0.5 1.5 0.1 2015 Investments by manufacturing industry in climate and environmental action Investments by manufacturing industry in climate action Total investments in geothermal energy Total investments in wind energy Total investments in photovoltaic energy Total investments in hydroelectric power Total investments in biomass electricity Investments in renewable energy sources nationwide INVESTMENTS IN CLIMATE ACTION | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES was incurred for wastewater disposal, at almost two billion euros, followed by investments in the energy sector, primarily in renewable energy sources.62 As the data on investments in the production sector is always published with a two-year delay, the data in Figure 37 only covers the period up to 2013. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) promotes exchanges between companies in learning energy efficiency networks. Since August 2014, participating companies have received free information and tools to help them plan and implement efficiency measures. That enables them to save energy effectively and reduce costs. According to the BMUB, i KfWsubsidy subsidyprogrammes programmes KfW TheGerman GermanGovernment’s Government’sdevelopment developmentbank, The bank, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW),(KfW), offers a variety of subsidy programmes aoffers variety of subsidy programmes for energy for energyadapted efficiency, adapted to different efficiency, to different activities and activities and Subsidies target groups. Subsidiesoffered are target groups. are generally as generally offered low-interest loans low-interest loansas and a repayment bonus. The and aEnergy repayment bonus. The KfW Energy KfW Efficiency Programme supports Efficiency Programme supports small small and medium-sized companies inand commedium-sized companies in commercial mercial efficiency measures. efficiency measures. • Energy-efficient construction supports priindividuals when purchasing or build• vate Energy-efficient construction supports ing an efficient residence. more efficient private individuals when The purchasing or the building, the better the conditions. building an efficient residence. The more efficient the building,refurbishment the better the • The Energy-efficient conditions. subsidises the energy refurprogramme of residences in existing build• bishment The Energy-efficient refurbishment proings. Untilsubsidises recently, roughly 70 per cent of gramme the energy refurbishbuildings constructed 1979 had no ment of residences in before existing buildings. insulation. However, this70can changed Until recently, roughly perbecent of with the programme. buildings constructed before 1979 had no insulation. However, this can be changed the programme. Source: KfWwith Website (2016) participating can reduce “their emissions after four years by an average of 1,000 tonnes of CO2 per company, and increase their energy efficiency twice as quickly as the average in the industry – and thus also their competitiveness.”63 Globally, investments in renewable energy sources have increased significantly. Since 2013, the new generation capacity installed in renewable energy has exceeded that of conventional power plants. In 2015, 286 billion US dollars were invested worldwide in renewable energy generation capacities. For the first time, investments by developing countries (156 billion US dollars) were slightly higher than those by industrialised countries (130 billion US dollars).64 5.4 Opportunities for innovative companies Climate action makes business sense for companies. Many companies make sustainability part of their corporate targets. For companies, this leads to savings opportunities with increased material and energy efficiency, and a lower resource consumption. Company environmental management systems support more efficient use of natural resources like water, energy and other raw materials during the production and service processes. This can impact the entire supply chain. The best known international standard for environmental management is ISO 14001. In addition to this, EMAS, the EU Eco-Management and Audit Scheme, is becoming increasingly popular in Europe. In recent years, almost 2,000 sites in Germany were EMAS-validated. In the energy management sector, introduction of a management system in accordance with the ISO 50001 standard or regular energy audits for all companies other than small and medium-sized companies became mandatory as part of the European Energy Services Directive in 2015. The German Federal Government assumes that the market volume of environmental and energy efficiency technologies will grow to at least five trillion euros by 2025.65 Source: KfW Website (2016) Germany’s pioneering role in climate action, supported by ambitious climate action goals and corresponding legislation (see Section 3.3), mean that German 59 60 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATIVE COMPANIES Figure 38: Percentage of German GDP from environmental and resource technology Environmental technology and Environmentally friendly generation. Storage and distribution of energy German GDP without clean technology Sustainable mobility Recycling management 13 % Raw material and Sustainable water management 7% Target for 2025: growing percentage of environmental technology and resource Source: Own diagram based on BMUB (2014b) companies are well positioned on the global market for climate products. Whereas environmental technologies and resource efficiency only accounted for three per cent of added value worldwide in 2013, it had already reached 13 per cent in Germany, with the target of an increase to over 20 per cent by 2025 (Figure 38).66 Digitisation and the development of innovative technologies link various sectors with one another. Climate-relevant innovations, e.g. in storage, are being produced both in the transport sector and automotive industry, as well as in the energy sector, and are being advanced there. The increasing digitisation will further boost this development. Industry is increasingly working to digitise value added processes (see section 4.3, “Industry 4.0”) and develop “intelligent products”. Companies, universities and scientific institutions are involved in research and development. 5.5 Increased energy security The expansion of renewable energy sources, reduced use of fossil fuels and increasing energy efficiency contribute to energy security. The term energy security includes the availability of the energy sources required, as well as their affordability. The availability of energy increases as national energy generation with renewable energy sources increases and energy demand is lower due to energy efficiency measures. At the same time, dependency on fluctuating oil and gas prices is reduced. Overall, roughly two thirds of the fossil fuels used here (oil, gas and hard coal) are imported from other countries. For instance, one third of the oil and gas resources consumed in Germany and one quarter of the hard coal come from Russia; some of the oil imports are sourced from the Middle East. INCREASED SECURITY OF ENERGY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 2013, fossil-based energy imports totalled 93.9 billion euros, or 3.3 per cent of the total German GDP in that year.68 These savings cannot be explained exclusively through energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – the decreasing oil price has also contributed to this. In spite of this, a correlation is apparent, as the energy consumption in Germany in 2014 dropped roughly five per cent compared to the previous year and the share of primary energy consumption accounted for by renewable energy sources increased just under one per cent at the same time. Germany currently depends on energy imports for almost 65 per cent of primary energy consumption.67 67 consumption. In 2014, the expenditures on fossil-based energy imports in Germany amounted to 80.5 billion euros (2.7 per cent of the GDP). That means a saving of roughly 14 per cent compared with the previous year. Annual savings are depicted in Figure 39. In Billions of euros Figure 39: 35 26 25 30 24 25 22 19 20 15 10 8 6 5 1 2 2 2 3 6 10 6 4 7 9 9 7 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Import costs saved thanks to renewable energy Source: Own diagram based on BMWi (2014b) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 61 62 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | CONTRIBUTION OF SOCIAL STAKEHOLDERS TO CLIMATE ACTION 5.6 Contribution of social stakeholders to climate action Climate action is an interdisciplinary area that concerns all sectors of the economy and levels of society. The German Federal Government supports climate-friendly consumption with various initiatives, which are based both on information campaigns and on financing climate action projects. In February 2016, the German Federal Government passed the “National Programme for Sustainable Consumption”, which aims to help consumers choose environmentally and climate-friendly products and services and make sustainable consumption mainstream. The programme is not only aimed at consumers, but also at all relevant stakeholders, like business, civil society or science. Private stakeholders can influence companies with their purchasing power. The environmental and health consciousness of German consumers has greatly boosted the production and sales of green products in recent years. For instance, consumption of regional and seasonal vegetables and fruit shortens transport routes and cooling periods, reducing emissions. Various labels support sustainable consumer behaviour, by identifying environmentally friendly products. One of the best-known labels is the “Blauer Engel” (Blue Angel), the German Federal Government’s environmental label to protect people and the environment that recognises over 12,000 environmentally and climate-friendly products and services in areas like households, offices and gardens. Examples of environmentally aware purchase and financing decisions of the population are shown in Figure 40. Municipalities now play a key role in climate action. This is true especially in the cases of energy supply, municipal buildings, transport and mobility, water, sewage and management of municipal enterprises. Municipalities can save emissions in all of these areas. Municipalities also act as role models for citizens. Municipalities can shape climate action actively with measures in the named areas, as well as with information, advice and participation services. In Germany, they are supported by the German Federal Government’s National Climate Initiative (NKI), which has already supported over 8,000 projects in roughly 3,500 municipalities since 2008. In total, NKI has supported over 19,000 projects with approximately 555 million euros between 2008 and 2014 in the municipalities, companies and private households target groups. Education helps protect the climate. With the NKI, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) has been initiating and promoting climate projects in schools and other educational institutions i Role of cities and municipalities in climate action worldwide Cities and municipalities municipalities play play an an important important role in international international climate climate action. action.Today Today already, half of the world world population populationlives livesin urban regions, andand that figure is rising. This in urban regions, that figure is rising. includes adapting to climate change. This includes adapting to climate change. Multiple international initiatives network mayors and other local and regional stakeholders and honour the importance of measures for local climate action and adaptation. • The Covenant of Mayors was initiated initiatby thethe European Commission andand unites ed by European Commission over 6,000 who commit unites oversignatories, 6,000 signatories, who to CO2 reduction commit to CO2 reduction In the targets. Intargets. the newly newly established Covenant, cities also established Covenant, cities also commit commit to to prepare tochange, climate in to prepare adapt to to adapt climate change, in a 40 per cent gas addition toaddition a 40 per to cent greenhouse greenhouse reduction by 2030. reduction bygas 2030. • The Compact of Mayors was initiated in 2014 at the UN Climate Summit, and now has over 400 members. CONTRIBUTION OF SOCIAL STAKEHOLDERS TO CLIMATE ACTION | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES since 2008. The projects boost awareness of climate action among children, young people and young adults, and promote participation opportunities in climate action. The projects encourage schools to generate specific ideas for climate action, thus contributing to reducing CO2 emissions, in a wide range of areas: in ad- dition to mobile learning services, for example energy saving measures are implemented in school buildings and art installations on climate action are organised. The online portal www.klimaschutzschulenatlas.de now shows over 3,430 schools committed to climate action. Figure 40: Climate action in society 2014 3% n/a* 9% n/a* 39 % already sourced 16 % no / n/a* 84 % yes 19 % never 78 % yes 52 % never Sourcing green electricity consumption labels** in the home*** *n/a = no data provided *** Participants were asked about measures taken to make their home heating environmentally friendly Source: Own diagram based on BMUB (2015a) 63 64 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | GLOSSARY 6. Glossary Biofuel Liquid or gaseous fuels produced from biomass. Examples include biodiesel, bioethanol and biogas. Biogenic proportion of waste The proportion of waste that can be composted under anaerobic or aerobic conditions, and arises in agriculture, fisheries and forestry, in industry, and in private households. Examples include residual wood, straw, garden waste, slurry, biowaste and fatty waste. Carbon dioxide Also CO2: colourless and odourless gas that is a natural part of the atmosphere. As a by-product of energy generation, carbon dioxide occurs primarily when burning fuels containing carbon. Carbon dioxide is the most important of the climate-relevant atmospheric trace gases. Cause principle Allocation of emissions to the point of origin. CO2 equivalent Unit for the greenhouse warming potential of a gas. CO2 equivalents show the quantity of a gas that would have the same effect as CO2 over a 100-year period. Combined Heat and Power generation Simultaneous generation of electricity and heat in one plant. Decarbonisation Increasing use of low-carbon sources of energy for economic action. In the context of this report: phasing out the use of fossil fuels, replacing them with renewable energy sources and increased energy efficiency. Direct marketing Sale of electricity from renewable energy sources to wholesale buyers or on the electricity exchange (for example at EEX in Leipzig). With subsidised direct marketing, plant operators also receive a market bonus in addition to the sales revenue. Direct/indirect emissions Definition based on EU standard ISO 140641:2006: direct emissions are produced on the company premises, indirect emissions occur in the value chain outside the company in question. Effort sharing Binding emission targets in the individual Member States for sectors which are not covered under EU emissions trading, in particular transport, households, commerce, trade, services and agriculture. The reduction targets are broken down based on the economic performance of the Member States. Electricity Market White Paper / Electricity Market 2.0 Publication by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) on changes in the electricity market design. Emission certificate Certified right to emit a certain quantity of a pollutant in a specific period. The Kyoto Protocol defines emission certificate trading as a tool to restrict the output of greenhouse gases. The EU emissions trading system implements emission certificate trading (allowances, EUA). Energy efficiency Ratio of benefit to the energy required. Energy intensity Ratio of primary energy consumption to the gross domestic product of an economy. Energy productivity Ratio of the overall macroeconomic performance to the energy used (inverse of energy intensity). GLOSSARY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES Energy-intensive industry Operational units in which either the energy and electricity purchasing costs total at least three per cent of the production value, or the national energy tax to be paid is at least 0.5 per cent of the added value (definition per EU Energy Tax Directive). EU White Paper Publication of the European Commission on strategic proposals and options for action. European emissions trading system (EU ETS) The Kyoto Protocol requires multiple flexible mechanisms, including emissions trading between states. European emissions trading incorporates emitters in the energy and industrial sectors, which can trade emission certificates among one another. An EU directive (EHRL) has governed the procedure since its inception on 1 January 2005. Forecast report Two-year report by the European Member States on estimates of how the respective greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to develop in the roughly 20 years to come. Fossil fuels Energy raw materials produced from biomass over millions of years, and consisting of carbon compounds of different lengths: oils, coals, gases. Green technologies Environmentally friendly, sustainable, resourceand energy-saving technologies. Greenhouse gas neutrality Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (for example by burning fuels) and absorption (for example by natural sinks, future technologies) of human-made greenhouse gas emissions is zero. External costs Costs (in particular from environmental damage), which are incurred when producing economic assets, but are not borne by the producer. Greenhouse gas potential Potential contribution of a material to heating the layers of air close to the ground. F gases Fluorinated greenhouse gases used as refrigerants in cooling and air conditioning systems, as propellants in sprays, as propellants in foams and insulation and as a fire extinguishing agent. Greenhouse gases Atmospheric trace gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect and can be both natural and anthropogenic, e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorinated hydrocarbons (PFCs). Feed-in tariff State-defined remuneration for electricity from renewable energy sources, incorporated in law in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). Final energy Part of primary energy that reaches consumers after deduction of transmission and conversion losses. Forms of final energy include district heat, electric current, liquid hydrocarbons such as petrol, kerosene and heating oil, as well as various gases such as natural gas, biogas and hydrogen. Gross electricity consumption Total of domestic electricity generation and flows of electricity from overseas, less flows of electricity to other countries. Gross final energy consumption Total of final energy consumption, conversion losses, transmission and distribution losses. Internalisation Pricing and allocation of external costs to the originator. 65 66 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | GLOSSARY IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international council of experts on climate matters, which has been operating under the patronage of the United Nations since 1988. Methane Also CH4: non-toxic, colourless and odourless gas. After carbon dioxide (CO2), it is the second most important greenhouse gas emitted by humans. National Climate Initiative (NKI) Support programme for climate activities, from development of long-term strategies to specific aids and investment. Nitrous oxide Also called N2O or laughing gas: colourless gas from the nitrogen oxide group with a direct impact on the climate, primarily emitted through agricultural use of nitrogen fertilisers. Primary energy Mathematically useful energy content of a naturally occurring energy source, before it is converted into another form of energy. Primary energy consumption Total of energy sources used, including changes in stock and the balance of purchases and deliveries. Renewable energies Energy sources that, according to human measures of time, are available for ever. The three original sources are: solar irradiation, geothermal energy and tidal energy. They can be used either directly or indirectly in the form of biomass, wind, hydropower, ambient heat and wave energy. Renewable Energies Heat Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Wärmegesetz, EEWärmeG) The “Law Promoting Renewable Energy in the Heating Sector” (abbreviated to Renewable Energies Heat Act, EEWärmeG) is from 2009. It obliges the owners of new buildings to meet part of their heating and cooling needs from renewable energy sources. The first amendment of the act entered into force on 1 May 2011. Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG) The 2000 Act Prioritising Renewable Energy Sources (abbreviated to Renewable Energy Sources Act [EEG]) contains the priority purchase obligation of renewable energy sources by grid operators. It also governs the (decreasing) remuneration rates for individual generation types and the process of allocating the resulting additional costs to all electricity buyers. Amendments to the act entered into force in 2004, 2009, on 1 January 2012 and most recently retroactively on 1 April 2012. Sink Reduction of emissions by absorbing and storing CO2 in plants and soil. Source principle Allocation of emissions to the point of origin. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) First international agreement that refers to climate change as a serious problem and obliges the community of states to take action. The Climate Framework Convention was adopted at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, and has been ratified by 194 states since then. It entered into force in 1994. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 7. List of abbreviations Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen) AGEE Working Group on Renewable Energy (Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien) BMEL German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft) BMUB German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit) BMWi German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie) CCS Carbon capture and storage CH4 Methane CHP Combined Heat and Power CO2 Carbon dioxide COP Conference of the Parties CTS Commerce / trade / services DeHSt German Emissions Trading Authority (Deutsche Emissionshandelsstelle) DENEFF German Energy Efficiency Business Initiative (Deutsche Unternehmensinitiative Energieeffizienz) DüV German Fertiliser Ordinance (Düngerverordnung) EDGAR Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research EEA European Environmental Agency EED Energy Efficiency Directive EEG Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz) EEV Final Energy Consumption (Endenergieverbrauch) EEWärmeG Renewable Energy Heat Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Wärmegesetz) EMAS Eco-Management and Audit Scheme EnEV Energy Savings Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung) EPBD Energy Performance of Buildings Directive EU-ETS EU Emissions Trading System EU28 28 Member States of the European Union F-gas Fluorinated greenhouse gases g Gram GDP Gross Domestic Product GFEC GHD AGEB GHG GJ GWP ICAO INDCs IPCC ISO k KfW kWh LULUCF MAP MJ NAPE N 2O NKI OECD PJ ppm RWI SME t TWh UBA UNFCCC UNEP WHO WRI ZIV Gross Final Energy Consumption Commerce, trade and services sector (Gewerbe, Handel und Dienstleistungen Sektor) Greenhouse Gas Gigajoule Global Warming Potential International Civil Aviation Organization Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Organization for Standardization Thousand German National Development Bank (Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau) Kilowatt hour Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Market incentive programme for the use of renewable energy sources (Marktanreizprogramm) Megajoule National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (Nationaler Aktionsplan Energieeffizienz) Nitrous oxide (laughing gas) National Climate Initiative (Nationale Klimaschutz Initiative) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Petajoule Parts per million Rhineland-Westfalen Economic Development Agency (RheinischWestfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Tonnes terawatt hour Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Environment Programme World Health Organization World Resources Institute Bicycle Industry Association (Zweirad-Industrie-Verband) 67 68 CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES | ENDNOTES 8. Endnotes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. IPCC (2013). Citation 1, P.2; Citation 2, P.9 IPCC (2013) For the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, the scientific community defined a set of four new scenarios, called representative concentration paths (RCPs). They are characterised by their approximate total radiative forcing in 2100 relative to 1750: 2.6 W/ m2 for RCP2.6, 4.5 W/m2 for RCP4.5, 6.0 W/m2 for RCP6.0 and 8.5 W/m2 for RCP8.5. (Cf. IPCC (2013), P. 28) IPCC (2013), P. 22 and 29 Cf. Endnote 3 on RCP in IPCC (2013), P.29. In the RCP2.6 Scenario, the level of radiative forcing reaches its peak before 2100 and then drops. In the RCP8.5 Scenario, radiative forcing does not peak until after 2100 UNEP, GRID Europe (2004) P. 11 UBA (2015c), P. 92, P. 152 UBA (2015c), P. 28-29 UNEP, GRID Europe (2004) German Weather Service (27/08/2015) adelphi / PRC / EURAC (2015). P. 607 GDV (German Insurance Association) (2013) EDGAR (2015) UBA (2016b): Short-term forecast for 2015: 27.2 per cent AGEE-Stat (2016), Table 2 German Federal Statistical Office (2016): Population in millions: 1990 - 79.75, 2015 - 81.5 AGEB (2016b): Primary energy consumption in PJ: 1990: 14,905; 2015: 13,306 → Per capita consumption 1990 186.9 GJ; 2015 163.3 GJ. BMZ (2015) German Federal Government (2015) BMWi (2015c) UBA (2016b) BMWi (2016a), Table 21 A very small percentage is caused by the combustion facilities for gas transport, which is only mentioned here for the sake of completeness Data: BMWi (2015a) UBA (2016c) BMWi (2015b) UBA (2015b), P. 9 BMUB (2013) Fraunhofer ISE (2015) BMUB (2015b) 30. BMWi (2015d) 31. LAK (Federal State Working Group on Energy Balances) (2015) 32. See UBA (2016d) 33. See DEHSt (2016) 34. UBA (2015c) 35. UBA (2016e) 36. Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 37. BMWi (2016c) 38. KBA (Federal Motor Transport Authority) (2016), Statista (2016) 39. ZIV (2015) 40. KBA (Federal Motor Transport Authority) (2015) 41. BMUB (2015c) 42. From an emissions perspective, the source principle also applies for the products named here, which allows the emissions incurred due to electricity consumption to be attributed to the energy industry sector 43. AGEB (2015) 44. BMWi (2014) 45. AGEB (2015) 46. BMWi (2016d) 47. BMWi (2016e) 48. UBA (2015d) 49. BMEL (2016a) 50. BMEL (2016b) 51. UBA (2015e) 52. BMWi (2015a) 53. EEA (2015c) 54. WHO (2014) 55. OECD (2014) 56. BMWi (2015a) 57. DENEFF (2015) 58. See Section 6.2 and BMWi (2016f) 59. BMWi (2016f) 60. BMWi (2016b) 61. BMUB (2014b) 62. Total investments in 2013: 72.95 billion euros according to Destatis Federal Statistical Office (2015), P. 5 63. BMUB (2015d) 64. Frankfurt School – UNEP Centre/ BNEF (2016) 65. BMUB (2015e) 66. BMUB (2014b) 67. Enerdata (2016): Germany: Primary energy consumption 2014: 12,818; Total imports 9,907 – Exports 1,765 = Net 8,142; Net imports as percentage of consumption: 63.5 per cent. 68. BMWi (2015e), UBA (2016f) BIBLIOGRAPHY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES 9. Bibliography adelphi / PRC / EURAC (2015): Vulnerabilität Deutschlands gegenüber dem Klimawandel. German Federal Environment Agency. Climate Change 24/2015. AGEB (Working Group on Energy Balances) (2015): Auswertungstabellen zur Energiebilanz in Deutschland 1990-2014. Berlin. www.ag-energiebilanzen.de AGEB (Working Group on Energy Balances) (2016a): Bruttostromerzeugung in Deutschland ab 1990 nach Energieträgern. Berlin. AGEB (Working Group on Energy Balances) (2016b): Energieverbrauch 2015 mit leichtem Zuwachs. Pressedienst 1/2016. AGEE-Stat (Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics) (2016): Zeitreihen zur Entwicklung der erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland. 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German Federal Statistical Office (2016): Population development. www.destatis.de German Weather Service (2015): Klimawandel-Aktuelle Nachrichten. 27/08/2015. www.dwd.de BIBLIOGRAPHY | CLIMATE ACTION IN FIGURES IPCC (2013): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. www.ipcc.ch KBA (German Federal Motor Transport Authority) (2015): Bestand an Pkw am 1. 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