Download Degrees of Variation – Climate Change in Nunavut

NORTHERN LANDSCAPES
CLIMATE CHANGE: THE BASICS
Excavator uncovers ground-ice,Pond Inlet
Climate change can occur naturally. Our climate is
controlled by a balance between energy received from
the sun and radiation the Earth loses to space. Any
changes in our environment, either natural or humaninduced, that alters this balance can affect our climate.
Incoming solar radiation
Outgoing solar radiation
Outgoing infrared radiation
Trends in methane concentrations
(past 1000 years)
Natural carbon in our Earth...
Methane concentration
(parts c
per billion, volume)
Ice core data
Did you know?
Ice core data
SILT
BEFORE
THICKENED
ACTIVE
LAYER
AFTER
DISTURBED
CROSS-SECTION
ACTIVE-LAYER DETACHMENT
Adapted from: N.W. Rutter
Adapted from: N.W. Rutter
Impact on transportation...
Runoff from snow melt washes out road; Iqaluit
Increased shoreline erosion may lead to
more sediment along the coast, creating
navigational hazards for shipping. Reduced
ground stability may also affect roads and
runways, and make summer overland travel
more difficult.
In warmer areas, placer
and open-pit mining would
be easier because
permafrost would be
reduced. Warmer
temperatures would also
mean the strength of soil
would be reduced and
underground mines would
see an increased risk of
rock falls and flooding.
K. Parlee, GSC 2000-058B
Crack caused by growth of a frost blister, Pangnirtung
PROGRESSING
CROSS-SECTION
THAW FLOW
Impact on industry...
K. Parlee, GSC 200-059A
SANIKILUAQ
ACTIVE LAYER
ICE
NETWORK
BEFORE
James A. (Drew) Hyatt
Greenhouse gases accumulate in the
atmosphere because their molecules have
life spans of decades or even centuries.
Did you know?
Human activity is currently responsible
for emitting 30 million tons ofCO2 each
year, 12 million tons of which accumulate
in the atmosphere.
Directly measured
BACKWARD
THAWING
FACE
FLOW DEBRIS
New houses are built on pilings or bedrock to minimize permafrost impacts
Environment Canada,1999a
Natural factors:
changes in solar activity
changes in Earth’s orbit
natural greenhouse effect
natural atmospheric aerosols
volcanic emissions
Human-induced factors:
enhanced greenhouse effect
land use change
enhanced atmospheric aerosols
Permafrost forms an impermeable layer for mine
tailings and landfill sites. A loss of this layer could
increase the risk of contamination to soil and water.
Melting of permafrost would have a major impact on infrastructure.
Warmer temperatures would reduce the stability and strength of the land.
Sinking of the ground surface from permafrost thaw could become
severe. This could threaten the structural integrity of older buildings,
water supplies and waste disposal structures.
Trends in CO2 concentrations
(past 1000 years)
Climate change factors...
ACTIVE LAYER
Did you know?
Impacts on infrastructure...
H. Sandeman
Without the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect the
average temperature of the Earth would be -18°C.
The permafrost boundary is expected to
move north by several hundred kilometers.
In the North, permafrost or frozen ground is
one of the most important features
controlling physical changes on the land.
Permafrost is found beneath the ground
surface in nearly all of Nunavut and some of
this permafrost, especially in lowland areas,
contains high amounts of ground-ice.
C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053C
Did you know?
Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the
1700s, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have
increased by 30%. Climate scientists predict that
over the next 40 to 60 years these concentrations
will double from their pre-industrial levels. The
primary cause of the expected buildup of CO2 is
from human activities.
Atmospheric
measurements
Environment Canada, 1999a
Carbon is a part of the Earth’s natural system.
Within the Earth, it is present as fossil fuels and in
sedimentary rocks. It is also stored at the Earth’s
surface in vegetation and soil, and in the oceans as
inorganic carbon dissolved in the sea water. In the
atmosphere, carbon occurs mainly as carbon
dioxide (CO2) . Before the Industrial Revolution,
CO2 and other greenhouse gases such as methane
(CH4), that were put into the atmosphere were
balanced by processes of natural removal, so
atmospheric concentrations of these gases did not
vary much.
Infrared radiation, or heat, is
emitted from the Earth’s surface
CO2 buildup...
CO2 concentration
(parts per million, volume)
AS
A
About 23% of radiation is
absorbed by the atmosphere
while another 46% is absorbed
by the Earth’s surface
Did you know?
A.G. Lewkowicz
:N
ce
ur
Permafrost...
Slope instability...
S.D. Robinson
So
Atmosphere
The Earth’s temperature is regulated by a natural system known as the ‘greenhouse effect’.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases, such as water vapour, CO2 , methane, nitrous oxide,
and ozone, trap radiation in the atmosphere which helps to keep the Earth warm enough to
support life. Problems can arise when the concentrations of these naturally occurring gases
are increased and new greenhouse gases like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are added to the
system.
DEGREES OF VARIATION
Data from Environment Canada, 1994
The Earth’s natural thermostat...
As radiation passes
through the atmosphere,
it can be absorbed,
re-emitted or reflected
back to the surface
James A. (Drew) Hyatt
Climate change is a change or variability in the ‘average weather’ of a region.
This means a change in the temperature, precipitation, winds and/or storms
that a given region experiences over a specific period of time. Global climate
change refers to these changes over the Earth as a whole.
A total of 31% of incoming solar
radiation is reflected back to
space from the atmosphere,
clouds and the Earth’s surface
C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053B
The nature of climate change...
R.M. Koerner, GSC 2000-052
What is climate change?
Permafrost and climate change...
Changes in the permafrost will depend on the type of Thaw flows and active layer detachments can result from warmer summer temperatures and
subsurface material and its temperature, as well as on local heavy precipitation events. These slides can alter the landscape and are a potential threat to
ground-ice conditions. Warming will likely cause a deepening infrastructure and natural habitats.
of the summer thaw layer (active layer), resulting in unstable
Active layer detachment, Fosheim Peninsula
soils and settlement of the ground surface. In more southern Thaw flow, Fosheim Peninsula
regions, large areas of permafrost may actually disappear. The
greatest impacts from these changes will probably be
increased slope movement and changes to soil properties.
Did you know?
Warmer temperatures will thaw traditional ice
cellars making them useless for storing meat.
ARVIAT
WHALE COVE
CORAL
HARBOUR
°C
Just as weather changes hour to hour and day to day, climate changes from decade
to decade, millennium to millennium and ice age to ice age. Snow and ice records
help us to understand the climate of the past. These records tell us that the climate
has experienced many periods of warming and cooling over the last 150 000 years.
+0.5 C
0oC
Below present
normal temperature
-1.5oC
1783
1807
1983
1843
Little Ice Age
1865
1880
1899
1917
1936
1973
1954
ARCTIC BAY
NANISIVIK
POND INLET
Medieval
Warm Period
4
1946
1995
0
Data source: National Glaciology Program
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
1980
2000
1940
1960
1980
Glaciers and ice caps respond to the effects of
summer temperature and annual precipitation.
As a result, they advance and retreat in
association with changes in the climate. These
changes give us information about climate
differences from year to year, as well as help us
determine longer term climate trends.
Did you know?
2000
The northern hemisphere is experiencing a
rise in the number of extreme storm events
that occur each year.
Canada contains the largest area of glaciers
and ice caps outside Greenland and Antarctica.
Glacier dammed lake draining into Leaf Bay
What the glaciers are telling us...
retreating glacier dam
Leaf Bay
Marine transportation...
former lake shore
High estimate
700
600
Intermediate estimate
500
400
Low estimate
300
1975
Did you know?
Climate models predict the greatest
warming to occur in Arctic regions.
2075
Did you know?
2100
Heavy rains and snowfalls are predicted to
increase in frequency and intensity.
Out of control?
Projected precipitation change
1975–1995 average vs. 2080–2100 average
Based on
intermediate CO2
Sea ice...
°C
% change
-60 – 30
-30 – 20
-20 – 10
-10 – 0
0 – 10
10 – 20
20 – 30
30 – 40
40 – 50
50 – 75
75 –
100+
GCMs project major changes in sea ice
cover in the northern hemisphere. In fact,
if they are correct virtually all summer ice
cover in the North will disappear by 2100.
-5 – 4
-4 – 3
-3 – 2
-2 – 1
-1 – 0
0–1
1–2
2–3
3–4
4–5
5+
Projected seasonal ice extent change
1971–1990 vs. 2041–2060
% change
-75 – 30
-30 – 20
-20 – 10
-10 – 0
0 – 10
10 – 20
20 – 30
30 – 40
40 – 50
50 – 75
75 – 100
100+
©
Winter
Precipitation...
1971–1990
2041–2060
September
Impacts of sea level rise...
Sea level rise, more extreme weather, and a loss of
sea ice will contribute to more erosion and flooding
along vulnerable Arctic shorelines. Higher sea
levels with less ice cover will expose more of the
coast to both normal waves and more powerful
storm waves.
Did you know?
Increased coastal erosion may result in the loss
of many Dorset and Thule archaeological sites.
Traditional lifestyles...
Early break-up or complete loss of ice
would have a profound effect on northern
life. Adaptation has always been a way of
life in the North, however, the rate at which
changes are predicted to occur could
make adaptation even more challenging in
the future.
Source: Torrie Smith Associates
PV-Wind-Diesel Hybrid System, Tanquary Fiord
We may not be able to change the fact that we live in a cold climate or that we
depend on our vehicles; however, we can use energy more efficiently and switch to
alternative energy sources that produce fewer greenhouse gases than fossil fuels.
Transportation 20%
Heating and
electricity 78%
Industrial
75%
Thermosyphons act to remove heat
from the ground and dissipate it into the
air. This prevents the melting of
permafrost by cooling the ground and
keeping it frozen.
The solution...
Nunavut
Residential
25%
Blanket of smog lying over Iqaluit
Burning garbage is a major source
of greenhouse gas emissions.
Transportation 53%
Source: NWT GHG Strategy
Human health...
Thermosyphons
What you can do to help...
1. Reduce your vehicle fuel consumption. Only use your vehicle when
necessary and avoid leaving it running.
CO2 reduction: 2.5 kg per litre of gas
2. Wash your laundry in warm or cold water instead of hot.
CO2 reduction (for two loads a week): up to 225 kg per year
3. Buy energy efficient compact flourescent lightbulbs for your most
frequently used lights.
Alternative...
A photovoltaic (PV) array converts sunlight directly into
electricity. It also charges a battery bank to store electricity
for those periods when it is cloudy. Hybrid systems
combine PV technology with wind generators to produce
electricity and use a diesel generator only as a backup.
CO2 reduction (for one frequently used bulb): about 225 kg per year
Greenhouse gases and other pollutants can directly affect 4. Caulk and weatherstrip around doors and windows to plug air leaks.
human health. Climate warming may also affect food and
CO2 reduction: up to 450 kg per year
water quality, and increase the range of some infectuous 5. Talk to your local municipal councils about setting up recycling and
diseases. In Nunavut, however, the impact of climate change
composting programs.
on human health is not yet clear and further studies are needed.
Did you know?
As fuel prices rise, photovoltaic arrays
are becoming more cost effective for the
North than traditional energy sources.
Geological Survey of Canada, Miscellaneous Report 71, 2001
Did you know?
REFERENCES
Bourgeois, J.C.
2000: Seasonal and intrannual pollen variability in snow layers of arctic ice caps; Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology,
v. 108, p. 17–36.
CANMET
1995: Renewable Energy and Hybrid Systems -A Green Energy Alternative; fact sheet, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa,
Ontario.
Canadian Arctic Resources Committee
1996: Voices from the Bay; in Northern Perspectives, v. 25, no. 1; available http://www.carc.org/pugs/v25no1/voices.htm
Canadian Arctic Resources Committee
1987: A question of degrees; in Northern Perspectives, v. 15, no. 5, 16 p.
Edlund, S.A.
1986: Modern arctic vegetation distribution and its congruence with summer climate patterns; in Proceedings, Impact of Climatic
Change on the Canadian High Arctic, (ed.) H.M. French; Environment Canada, Ottawa, p. 84–99.
Environment Canada
1994: Modelling the Global Climate System; in Climate Change Digest, CCD 94-01, Environment Canada, Ottawa, 20 p.
1997: What is climate change?; available at http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/whatis/index.html
1999a: The science of climate change; available at http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/saib/climate/climatechange/cc_presentation_e.PDF
1999b: The science of climate change -information nuggets; available at http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/cd/climate/nuggets_e.cfm
2000: Climate trends and variations bulletin for Canada -winter 1999/2000 temperature and precipitiation in historical
perspective; available at http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/winter00/index.html
Environmental Defense
1999: Steps to reduce global warming; available at http://www.edf.org/want2help/b_gw20steps.html
Fisher, D.A., Koerner, R.M., and Reeh, N.
1995: Holocene climatic records from Agassiz Ice Cap, Ellesmere Island, NWT, Canada; The Holocene, v. 5, no. 1, p. 19–24
Flato, G.M., Boer, G.J., Lee, W.G., McFarlane, N.A., Ransden, D., Reader, M.C., and Weaver, A.J.
2000: The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model and its climate; Climate Dynamics (in press)
In the Sanikiluaq area, recent cooling trends
have resulted in more ice cover and the eider
duck population, which depends on open water
for food and warmth, has been suffering.
Nunatsiaq News - October 24, 1997
Aboriginal Hunters Tell Their Stories:
Climate Change in Hudson Bay
Expected changes in the range and distribution of
animals such as polar bear, seal and walrus may
require changes to Inuit hunting practices.
Momma has her own idea of the perfect
instrument configuration for this buoy
News North - April 5, 1999
Arctic Turns Tropic?
“When it gets too warm, the
animals go to where it’s cooler.”
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
March
Annual precipitation is predicted to increase by up to 25% over the
next century; however, these changes will vary seasonally. This
means that the amount and type of precipitation will vary by
season. For example, in the northern regions winter snow cover
may be reduced by up to 30 days and in western regions snow may
be replaced by rain or freezing rain in early spring and autumn.
Sea ice provides a platform
for monitoring change in the
Arctic and for studying the
interaction of climate, sea ice,
and the marine ecosystem.
The International Arctic Buoy
Program (http://iabp.apl.
washington.edu) provides
real time and climate data
from the remote regions of
the Arctic Basin.
Appliance and lighting 10%
Garbage 10%
Home heating 19%
Water heating 7%
Did you know?
Incineration 2%
Local impacts...
© Donald G. Barton, 1992
Flato et al., in press
GCMs project an overall increase in the annual mean temperature
of 1°C to 3.5°C over the next 100 years. Not all areas will be affected
equally, however, and the Canadian Arctic is expected to
experience more substantial changes than southern regions. In the
west, temperature increases of 5–7°C are predicted, while in the
east warming is predicted to be much less. Temperature changes
will also differ between seasons with more overall warming
occurring in the winter months.
Source: Shaw et al. 1998
Canada
In western Hudson Bay, it is likely the range and
feeding patterns of polar bears will change. A
potential shift in seal habitat, as well as longer icefree periods, will make it harder for bears to hunt and
they may not be able to store enough fat to survive.
Lack of food and hunger could increase ‘nuisance’
bears in communities where garbage or other
sources of food can easily be found. Polar bears
also give birth to their young in snow caves. The
integrity of these caves depends on snow
conditions.
Warming conditions may mean several marine
mammals will experience a change in their range
and abundance. For example, walrus and bearded
seals require strong sea ice as platforms for
breeding, nursing pups, and resting. Beluga and
bowhead whales, however, do not rely on ice cover
as much and are therefore not expected to be
significantly impacted by climate warming.
Polynyas are areas of open water surrounded by sea
ice. They often form in the same place each winter.
Research...
The source of our emissions...
A large portion of Canada’s CO2 emissions come from
the residential sector. One of the reasons is because we
live in a cold climate, particularly in the North, and we use
a lot of energy to heat our homes. Our large land area and
scattered population also means that we rely heavily on
transportation to link our communities.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Impact on other marine mammals...
Did you know?
Moderate
High
Adaptation...
DEGREES OF VARIATION - CLIMATE CHANGE IN NUNAVUT
Shore polynya on Jones Sound
P.D. Sutherland
Temperature...
Summer
Traditional knowledge is used to predict ice conditions
and guide hunters in travel and work at the floe edge.
Changes in fast ice behavior, such as unusually early
break-up, have made predicting ice conditions more
difficult and caused dangerous situations in recent
years, like the incident of June 1997.
Polynyas and ice edges are important for northern waters. They
serve as feeding, mating, spawning, and overwintering grounds
for many marine birds and mammals. The amount of plankton in
these areas also means that fish populations thrive. The fate of
these polynyas in a warmer climate is currently being studied.
Environment Canada, 1999a
Summer
Traditional knowledge...
Very white areas
are open water
Every litre of gas you use in your
vehicle produces almost 2.5 kg of
CO2 , as well as many other pollutants.
25
About 1/3 of Canada’s CO2 and NOx
emissions come from transportation.
Nunatsiaq News - November 19, 1999
Warmer Weather Threatens Hudson Bay
Polar Bears
Wildlife...
Low
Winter
News North - April 5, 1999
Arctic Turns Tropic?
“Years ago, we used to travel by dog team in
the middle of July over the ice … but now,
by July, people are boating.” - Kugluktuk
0
20
20
15
Tonnes per year
Impact on polar bears...
Nunatsiaq News - June 13, 1997
Stranded Students Safe and Sound
After Ordeal
Canadian Ice Service
Environment Canada, 1999a
Variations in sea level...
Regional differences in sea level will depend on
average sea level, as well as on regional geological
adjustments. During the last ice age, the land was
pushed down under the weight of the glaciers. As the
glaciers retreated, the land started to rebound to its
original level. Most areas in the Arctic are still slowly
rebounding so increases in global sea-level rise may
not be much of a problem. On eastern Baffin Island
and the northwest Arctic Islands, the land is no
longer rebounding so these coasts are more at risk.
In the Arctic, ocean temperature varies only a few
degrees (-2 to +3oC), so any increase in temperature
could have major impacts on the marine ecosystem.
Satellite imagery tracks ice floe
where students drifted for 6 days
10
Did you know?
Did you know?
Canadian Ice Service
-1 – 0
0–1
1–2
2–3
3–4
4–5
5 – 10
10 – 15
15 – 20
20+
2050
Sensitivity to
sea-level rise
Over the last 200 years, human-induced greenhouse gas
emissions have begun to accumulate in the atmosphere. These
gases may now be strengthening the natural greenhouse effect
with the potential of accelerating planet- wide climate change.
Based on
intermediate CO2
°C
2025
If the Greenland Ice Sheet melts, it contains
enough ice to raise the global sea level by 6–7m.
As the climate warms, water levels in the world’s
oceans are expected to rise. The expansion of sea
water as it warms and the melting of ice caps and
glaciers will contribute to this global increase in
mean sea levels.
The impact of climate change on marine species is
difficult to predict. Changes in water temperature,
ocean currents, ice cover, and nutrient supply, are
likely to affect the availability and location of food
sources. Species that depend on snow and ice
cover for habitat, feeding, or reproduction will also
be affected. As the climate and ocean temperatures
begin to change, scientists predict a northward shift
in the range of many marine species.
Northwest Territories Dept. of Information/NWT Archives
Projected temperature changes
1975–1995 average vs. 2080–2100 average
2000
Did you know?
ing
800
London – Tokyo
Northwest Passage
(14 600 km)
Panama Canal
(23 300 km)
Rising sea levels...
5
0
Douglas Wilkinson/NWT Archives
CO2 concentration
(parts per million, volume)
900
The future of CO2 ...
Many climate change predictions depend on the future
concentrations of atmospheric CO2 . These future
concentrations will depend on global development and our
commitment to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In
the figure (left), the high estimate assumes an increase in the
burning of fossil fuels, while the low estimate assumes a switch
to alternative energy sources.
Projected CO2 concentrations
(to 2100)
Environment Canada, 1999a
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are created to simulate the
Earth’s climate. These computer models are made up of many
complicated mathematical equations, but are only an
approximation of the real climate system. There are still many
aspects of our climate that we do not fully understand and
many interactions that cannot be accurately represented by
these models.
draining glacier dammed lake
Did you know?
A shift in the marine ecosystem?
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
D.G. Hodgson, GSC 2000-056B
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
As in the photo to the right, glaciers may act as a
barrier to water drainage and create glacierdammed lakes. With the predicted melting expected
from climate change, these glacier dams may break
and result in flooding of land downstream.
Less ice in the North would make access to
communities easier and create longer shipping
seasons. Climate models also suggest the
opening of the 'Northwest Passage' is likely.
This could see the Arctic become a major
international shipping route. More marine
traffic could benefit many northern
communities and industries, but it could also
create social change, increase environmental
hazards, and raise sovereignty issues.
Cloud of smoke from burning dump
1
CANMET
Records from ice caps in Nunavut show significant
annual variations, but no obvious trend over the past
thirty years; however, South Melville Ice Cap in the
western Arctic (N.W.T.) is beginning to show a trend
toward more summer melt.
Nunatsiaq News - June 4, 1999
Get Ready Shippers - Sealift’s A
Month Early This Year
Flooding potential...
Predicting the future...
In the North, sea ice is a fact of life. It can affect
shipping and the resupply of isolated communities;
however, many traditional northern activities, such as
travel, hunting, and fishing, depend on its presence.
ã2000 The Living Earth, Inc.
Forecasting events
such as high smog
levels or dangerous
ice conditions can
help prevent risks to
human health and
safety. The prototype
landfast ice break-up
advisory is part of a
pilot study to meet
the changing needs
o f n o r t h e r n
communities.
S.A. Wolfe, GSC 2000-058B
Summer sea ice conditions vary from year to year. In 1998,
the warmest year in Canada since 1951, sea ice extent for
the Arctic Islands was a record minimum.
3.9
2.7
India
LIFE AT SEA
The two sides of ice...
Norwegian Bay: Convoy to Eureka
Monitors of climate change...
Storm frequency...
Sea ice cover...
Canadian Ice Service
Borehole records indicate that ground surface
temperature is warming. In the North,
increased ground temperatures may
drastically affect permafrost.
20
OF ICE AND MEN
GLACIERS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE
D.G. Hodgson, GSC 2000-056A
Ground temperatures...
40
1920
7.2
China
60
0
1900
For most of Canada, the winter of 2000 was
drier than normal. In Nunavut, however,
conditions were actually wetter.
9
8.5
World average
80
Precipitation...
Open water or berg water
1/10 to 4/10
5/10 to 10/10
2000
Japan
Ukraine
K. Parlee, GSC 2000-058C
1900
10.2
9.3
Italy
Canadian Ice Service
Year
1800
Germany
United Kingdom
2000
Frequency of intense winter storms
in the northern hemisphere
100
12.2
C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053A
1700
Environment Canada, 2000
Total concentration
for September 28, 1998
1990
ALERT
Northwest Territories Dept. of Information/NWT Archives
1600
1950
1960
1970
1980
Relative to 1961 – 1990 average temperature
17
Russian Federation
Canadian Ice Service
1500
-2.0
%
1000
150
90
70
50
30
10
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
-150
For southern Nunavut, the winter of 2000 was
warmer. However, northern areas and areas
along the eastern Arctic Islands were cooler.
Huang et al., 2000
Observed
-1.0
-0.5
1961 – 1990 normals
Temperature...
-0.5
0.0
-1.5
Environment Canada, 2000
0.0
0.5
20.5
Canada
TORONTO
-1.0
Winter 2000: precipitation change from normal
United States
Canadian Ice Service
Global ground surface temperature change
1500 – 2000
1.5
Environment Canada, 1999a
Temperature difference from today (°C)
-0.6
1860 1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
Relative to 1961 – 1990 average temperature
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
-2.5
-3.5
-4.5
-5.5
-6.5
OTTAWA
1.0
Adaptation...
1995 CO2 per capita emissions
from selected countries
Ear th
, Inc.
-0.4
°C
Rosemary Kuptana in ‘Inuit Perspectives on Climate Change’
HALIFAX
QUEBEC CITY
Liv
-0.2
1961 – 1990 normals
FREDERICTON
WINNIPEG
e
0.0
Temperature (°C)
Environment Canada, 1999a
0.2
News North - July 24, 2000
It’s So Wet...
“When my grandfather was growing up,
the elders could predict the weather, but
now things change all the time.” - Iqaluit
Switching to alternative energy sources and using energy more
efficiently can help prevent future human-induced climate
change; however, our climate is already experiencing some
change so adaptations are also necessary.
CHARLOTTETOWN
REGINA
2.0
Winter 2000: temperature change from normal
“As a global human family, our fates are linked to one
another, just as they are linked to the fate of our planet”
Torrie Smith Associates 1999
0.4
VICTORIA
Environment Canada, 1999a
Temperature (°C)
0.6
Changes in the range and abundance of animals may
mean local adjustments to traditional hunting and
harvesting strategies. It may also mean changes to
traditional diet. In addition, the meat quality is expected to
decline and this may affect nutritional health of people
dependant on country food.
Alternatives and adaptations...
Canada has a relatively small population compared to other
countries, yet we are one of the biggest greenhouse gas
producers. In fact, we rank second per capita in CO2 emissions.
EDMONTON
Canadian temperature change
1948 – 1999
2.5
Storms per winter
0.8
Nunatsiaq News - June 2, 2000
Inuit Elders Say the Arctic Climate is Changing
Local impacts...
Our current status...
ST JOHN’S
Th
Global temperature change
1860 – 1999
Over the last 100 years Canada’s climate has been
changing, with the most significant changes occuring
in the last few decades. These changes however vary
across the country by region, as well as by season.
Climate change varies significantly within the Canadian North. The west has
been warming, with the greatest temperature increases occurring in the winter
and spring. The east however, has experienced a general cooling trend, with
greatest temperature decreases occurring during the winter and spring.
Lemming
THE CHALLENGE
Climate change in Canada...
Climate change in the North...
Ice-layered snow may create problems for
small mammals. Ice layers trap CO2 causing
it to build up under the snow. As CO2 levels
rise, small mammals can be poisoned by the
gas or forced to the surface, where they may
freeze or be caught by a predator.
EUREKA
0
The rate of climate change today is more rapid than in
the recent past. Temperature records indicate the Earth
has warmed over the past 100 years, with the 10
warmest years on record occurring since 1980.
The Queen Maud Gulf lowlands are a major
breeding and nesting ground for migratory birds.
Climate warming may change this sensitive
environment and adversely affect bird populations.
IQALUIT
YELLOWKNIFE
Climate change alert...
Did you know?
Northwest Territories Dept. of Information/NWT Archives
GRISE FIORD
WHITEHORSE
In northern regions, warming may extend nesting periods,
provide more food for young and decrease chick mortality.
In the southern regions, however, particularly the
mainland, warming may reduce breeding and forage
habitats. Sea-level rise may also damage important
shoreline nesting areas and increased storms during
nesting season could destroy essential nesting efforts,
eggs, and chicks.
Caribou
Ice-covered arctic poppy
2000
1
1990
Canadian Arctic ice cores (Devon and Agassiz ice cap)
Arctic poppy
Birds and waterfowl...
S. Wolfe, GSC 2000-059A
Holocene
Ice Age
Last Interglacial
0
1985
20 000
1980
40 000
1975
60 000
80 000
1970
100 000
2
D.G. Hodgson, GSC 2000-056C
120 000
Changes in the variability or
in the frequency of extremes
may be as important to life in
Nunavut, as the longer term
warming or cooling trends.
Muskoxen
3
1965
Climate variability...
Caribou and muskoxen are very dependent on access to tundra vegetation, so
an increase in encrusted snow cover may put such vegetation beyond their
reach. Many large mammals also migrate to seasonal feeding grounds.
Changes in the timing and extent of ice cover may see a change in migration
patterns or an increase in drownings as they attempt to cross unsafe ice.
Due to low nutrient supply in the soil, doubling the amount
of CO2 in the atmosphere will have relatively little direct
effect on plant growth in the Arctic; however, warmer
temperatures resulting from increased CO2 could change
the tundra thaw depth, litter quality, and soil nutrients. As a
result, it is expected that species currently at their northern
limit will expand northward. In southern areas, tundra
vegetation may disappear and in the remaining northern
tundra areas, there would be more shrub cover and a
decrease in forbs and lichens.
RESOLUTE
0
1950
2000
Temperature (°C)
Climatic Optimum
4000
Ptarmigan in the snow
Ottawa Citizen - April 18, 2000
Inuit Track Early Global Warming Trends: Report Documents
Unusual Sightings of Birds, Animals in the Arctic
Vegetation...
S.A. Edlund, GSC 2000-057A
1000 years ago the North Atlantic climate was like
today. During this period, called the ‘Medieval Warm
Period’, Vikings sailed in Canada’s northern waters.
CLYDE RIVER
Eastern high arctic average summer
temperatures: 1946 – 1998
5
6000
8000
10000
12000
Last 150 thousand years
140 000
Tall willows - a warmer climate may enable this species
to move into more of the southern Arctic Islands
Data from Environment Canada
-11oC
CAMBRIDGE BAY
Red Knot
C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053D
J.C. Bourgeois
J. Zhang, GSC 2000-O54
Did you know?
1825
0oC
+3oC
0oC
KUGLUKTUK
Last 12 thousand years
+3oC
-3oC
TALOYOAK
Warming is expected to increase food availability for plant-eating animals;
however, changes in the timing of these food sources, an increase in parasites
and insect-borne disease, and more insect harassment may lead to population
declines. In addition, southern species may slowly begin to move into the area
and increase competition for food and space with traditional animal species.
QIKIQTARJUAQ
Current temperature trends show that over the
past 50 years Nunavut has experienced both
strong warming and cooling. The warming trend
occurs primarily in the west, where as the east has
undergone a cooling trend.
1960
1982
Arctic willows - a warmer climate may enable this species
to become more widespread in the High Arctic Islands
Current observations...
1955
1984
Above present
normal temperature
HALL BEACH
IGLOOLIK
UMINGMAKTOK
Wildlife...
NWT Archives
1985
KUGAARUK
PANGNIRTUNG
Last 200 years
o
GJOA
HAVEN
BATHURST INLET
S. Robinson, GSC 2000-055
1986
1980
IQALUIT
Zhang et al., 2000
Snow pit wall
REPULSE BAY
Climate warming is predicted to cause increased plant growth, a northward movement of the treeline, declines in snow cover
and the thickness and extent of permafrost, reduced browse for caribou, decreased water availability; and increased forest fires.
S.A. Edlund, GSC 2000-057C
200 years ago the climate was colder than today. During this
period, called the ‘Little Ice Age’, northern waters were ice choked
and European explorers could not navigate the Northwest Passage.
CAPE
DORSET
KIMMIRUT
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Did you know?
Ice cores ready for transport
1981
The future...
What the past is telling us...
S.A. Edlund, GSC 2000-057B
Ice cores drilled from the tops of Canadian Arctic
ice caps provide detailed records of past
environments, including temperature changes,
precipitation changes, and changes in
atmospheric pollutants and gases. On the walls of
snow pits dug at the top of the ice cap, the
seasonal layers can be seen and sampled.
Reconstructed temperature records extend the
very short weather station records back to before
the last ice age.
LIFE ON THE LAND
BAKER LAKE
Trends in annual daily maximum temperature
1950 – 1998
2
CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS CHANGED
The past preserved...
RANKIN INLET
CHESTERFIELD INLET
This poster is available from the Geological Survey of Canada book stores:
601 Booth Street, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8
3303-33rd Street N.W., Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A7
101-605 Robson Street, Vancouver, British Columbia V63 5T3
Government of Canada
1999: Canada’s Perspective on Climate Change; Government of Canada, Ottawa, 24 p.
Huang, S., Pollack, P. and Shen, Y.
2000: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures; Nature, v. 403, p. 756–758
Hengeveld, H.G.
2000: Projections for Canada’s climate future; Climate Change Digest, CCD 00-01, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
International Arctic Science Committee
1999: Impacts of Global Climate Change in the Arctic Regions; in Report from a Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate
Change -Tromso, Norway; (ed.) G. Weller and M. Lang; 59 p.
Inuit Circumpolar Conference
1997: The Hudson Bay Programme Traditional Knowledge Study; available at http://www.unsiaat.com/hb.htm
Koerner, R.M.
1995: Report on Mass Balance of Arctic Glaciers; in International Arctic Science Committee, Working Group on Arctic Glaciology -Oslo,
Norway; (ed.) J. Jania. and J.O. Hagen; p. 5-8 plus tables.
Maxwell, B.
1997: Responding to Global Climate Change in Canada’s Arctic, Vol II of the Canada Country Study -Climate Impacts and Adaptations,
Environment Canada; 82 p.
Natural Resources Canada
2000: Sensitivities to Climate Change in Canada; 33 p.
Robinson, S.D.
in press:Thaw slump derived thermokarst in the vicinity of Hot Weather Creek; in Environmental Response to Climate Change
in the Canadian High Arctic, (ed.) M. Garneau and B.T. Alt; Geological Survey of Canada, Bulletin 529.
Solomon, S., Taylor, B., Dallimore, S.R., and Wolfe, S.A.
1999: Coastal process studies; in Permafrost Climate Change Studies, Geological Survey of Canada.
Stirling, I., Nicholas, J.L., and Iacozza, J.
1999: Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change; Arctic,
v. 52, no. 3, p. 294–306.
Wolfe, S.
1998: Living with frozen ground – a field guide to permafrost in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories; Geological Survey of Canada,
Miscellaneous Report 64, 71 p.
Zhang, X., Vincent, L.A., Hogg, W.D., and Ain Niitsoo
2000: Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century; Atmoshpere-Ocean, p. 395–429
Edited by: Kathryn Parlee and Bea Alt
Graphic design and cartography: K. Parlee and C. Gilbert
Research: K. Markwell, S. Qaunaq, S. Robinson, and S. Smith
Project director: B. Lavender
Project management: B. Alt and D. Scott
Contributors, advisors, and reviewers: J. Bourgeois, E. Baddaloo,
M. Burgess, R. DeAbreu, L. Dyke, S. Edlund, P. Edwards, D. Fisher,
G. Flatto, H. Hengeveld, D. Hodgson, W. Hogg, E. Hudson, J. Hyatt,
B. Inuktalik, S. Jeffers, S. Joss, R. Koerner, A.G. Lewkowicz,
S. Martel, B. MacIsaac, S. McCourt, J. Naufal, A. Niitsoo,
F. Rainville, B. Rigby, P. Schledermann, J. Shaw, J. Shirley,
I. Stirling, P. D. Sutherland, R. Taylor, N. Thorpe, L. Ussak,
L. Vincent,S. Wolfe, C. Zdanowicz, and X. Zhang
Website: J. Sekerka
Education committee: B. Johnson, K. Giesbrecht
Lead agencies:
Natural Resources Canada,
Geological Survey of Canada;
Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office
Other participating agencies:
Canadian Ice Service;
CANMET;
Department of Sustainable Development, Nunavut;
Environment Canada;
Inukshuk Secondary School, Iqaluit;
Meteorological Service of Canada;
Nunavut Research Institute;
Qarmartalik School, Resolute Bay;
Ummimak School, Grise Fiord
Available for viewing at:
Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office,
626 Tumiit Building, P.O. Box 2319
Iqaluit, Nunavut
Website: www.nrcan.gc.ca/gsc/education_e.html
Funding provided in part by the
Aussi disponible en francais
s8N w8ktg xgw6NsuJ
Government of Canada Climate
Change Action Fund
© 2001. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Natural Resources Canada
Catalogue
. No M41-8/71E
ISBN 0-660-18358-7