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NORTHERN LANDSCAPES CLIMATE CHANGE: THE BASICS Excavator uncovers ground-ice,Pond Inlet Climate change can occur naturally. Our climate is controlled by a balance between energy received from the sun and radiation the Earth loses to space. Any changes in our environment, either natural or humaninduced, that alters this balance can affect our climate. Incoming solar radiation Outgoing solar radiation Outgoing infrared radiation Trends in methane concentrations (past 1000 years) Natural carbon in our Earth... Methane concentration (parts c per billion, volume) Ice core data Did you know? Ice core data SILT BEFORE THICKENED ACTIVE LAYER AFTER DISTURBED CROSS-SECTION ACTIVE-LAYER DETACHMENT Adapted from: N.W. Rutter Adapted from: N.W. Rutter Impact on transportation... Runoff from snow melt washes out road; Iqaluit Increased shoreline erosion may lead to more sediment along the coast, creating navigational hazards for shipping. Reduced ground stability may also affect roads and runways, and make summer overland travel more difficult. In warmer areas, placer and open-pit mining would be easier because permafrost would be reduced. Warmer temperatures would also mean the strength of soil would be reduced and underground mines would see an increased risk of rock falls and flooding. K. Parlee, GSC 2000-058B Crack caused by growth of a frost blister, Pangnirtung PROGRESSING CROSS-SECTION THAW FLOW Impact on industry... K. Parlee, GSC 200-059A SANIKILUAQ ACTIVE LAYER ICE NETWORK BEFORE James A. (Drew) Hyatt Greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere because their molecules have life spans of decades or even centuries. Did you know? Human activity is currently responsible for emitting 30 million tons ofCO2 each year, 12 million tons of which accumulate in the atmosphere. Directly measured BACKWARD THAWING FACE FLOW DEBRIS New houses are built on pilings or bedrock to minimize permafrost impacts Environment Canada,1999a Natural factors: changes in solar activity changes in Earth’s orbit natural greenhouse effect natural atmospheric aerosols volcanic emissions Human-induced factors: enhanced greenhouse effect land use change enhanced atmospheric aerosols Permafrost forms an impermeable layer for mine tailings and landfill sites. A loss of this layer could increase the risk of contamination to soil and water. Melting of permafrost would have a major impact on infrastructure. Warmer temperatures would reduce the stability and strength of the land. Sinking of the ground surface from permafrost thaw could become severe. This could threaten the structural integrity of older buildings, water supplies and waste disposal structures. Trends in CO2 concentrations (past 1000 years) Climate change factors... ACTIVE LAYER Did you know? Impacts on infrastructure... H. Sandeman Without the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect the average temperature of the Earth would be -18°C. The permafrost boundary is expected to move north by several hundred kilometers. In the North, permafrost or frozen ground is one of the most important features controlling physical changes on the land. Permafrost is found beneath the ground surface in nearly all of Nunavut and some of this permafrost, especially in lowland areas, contains high amounts of ground-ice. C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053C Did you know? Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased by 30%. Climate scientists predict that over the next 40 to 60 years these concentrations will double from their pre-industrial levels. The primary cause of the expected buildup of CO2 is from human activities. Atmospheric measurements Environment Canada, 1999a Carbon is a part of the Earth’s natural system. Within the Earth, it is present as fossil fuels and in sedimentary rocks. It is also stored at the Earth’s surface in vegetation and soil, and in the oceans as inorganic carbon dissolved in the sea water. In the atmosphere, carbon occurs mainly as carbon dioxide (CO2) . Before the Industrial Revolution, CO2 and other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4), that were put into the atmosphere were balanced by processes of natural removal, so atmospheric concentrations of these gases did not vary much. Infrared radiation, or heat, is emitted from the Earth’s surface CO2 buildup... CO2 concentration (parts per million, volume) AS A About 23% of radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere while another 46% is absorbed by the Earth’s surface Did you know? A.G. Lewkowicz :N ce ur Permafrost... Slope instability... S.D. Robinson So Atmosphere The Earth’s temperature is regulated by a natural system known as the ‘greenhouse effect’. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases, such as water vapour, CO2 , methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone, trap radiation in the atmosphere which helps to keep the Earth warm enough to support life. Problems can arise when the concentrations of these naturally occurring gases are increased and new greenhouse gases like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are added to the system. DEGREES OF VARIATION Data from Environment Canada, 1994 The Earth’s natural thermostat... As radiation passes through the atmosphere, it can be absorbed, re-emitted or reflected back to the surface James A. (Drew) Hyatt Climate change is a change or variability in the ‘average weather’ of a region. This means a change in the temperature, precipitation, winds and/or storms that a given region experiences over a specific period of time. Global climate change refers to these changes over the Earth as a whole. A total of 31% of incoming solar radiation is reflected back to space from the atmosphere, clouds and the Earth’s surface C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053B The nature of climate change... R.M. Koerner, GSC 2000-052 What is climate change? Permafrost and climate change... Changes in the permafrost will depend on the type of Thaw flows and active layer detachments can result from warmer summer temperatures and subsurface material and its temperature, as well as on local heavy precipitation events. These slides can alter the landscape and are a potential threat to ground-ice conditions. Warming will likely cause a deepening infrastructure and natural habitats. of the summer thaw layer (active layer), resulting in unstable Active layer detachment, Fosheim Peninsula soils and settlement of the ground surface. In more southern Thaw flow, Fosheim Peninsula regions, large areas of permafrost may actually disappear. The greatest impacts from these changes will probably be increased slope movement and changes to soil properties. Did you know? Warmer temperatures will thaw traditional ice cellars making them useless for storing meat. ARVIAT WHALE COVE CORAL HARBOUR °C Just as weather changes hour to hour and day to day, climate changes from decade to decade, millennium to millennium and ice age to ice age. Snow and ice records help us to understand the climate of the past. These records tell us that the climate has experienced many periods of warming and cooling over the last 150 000 years. +0.5 C 0oC Below present normal temperature -1.5oC 1783 1807 1983 1843 Little Ice Age 1865 1880 1899 1917 1936 1973 1954 ARCTIC BAY NANISIVIK POND INLET Medieval Warm Period 4 1946 1995 0 Data source: National Glaciology Program THE CURRENT CONDITIONS 1980 2000 1940 1960 1980 Glaciers and ice caps respond to the effects of summer temperature and annual precipitation. As a result, they advance and retreat in association with changes in the climate. These changes give us information about climate differences from year to year, as well as help us determine longer term climate trends. Did you know? 2000 The northern hemisphere is experiencing a rise in the number of extreme storm events that occur each year. Canada contains the largest area of glaciers and ice caps outside Greenland and Antarctica. Glacier dammed lake draining into Leaf Bay What the glaciers are telling us... retreating glacier dam Leaf Bay Marine transportation... former lake shore High estimate 700 600 Intermediate estimate 500 400 Low estimate 300 1975 Did you know? Climate models predict the greatest warming to occur in Arctic regions. 2075 Did you know? 2100 Heavy rains and snowfalls are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. Out of control? Projected precipitation change 1975–1995 average vs. 2080–2100 average Based on intermediate CO2 Sea ice... °C % change -60 – 30 -30 – 20 -20 – 10 -10 – 0 0 – 10 10 – 20 20 – 30 30 – 40 40 – 50 50 – 75 75 – 100+ GCMs project major changes in sea ice cover in the northern hemisphere. In fact, if they are correct virtually all summer ice cover in the North will disappear by 2100. -5 – 4 -4 – 3 -3 – 2 -2 – 1 -1 – 0 0–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5+ Projected seasonal ice extent change 1971–1990 vs. 2041–2060 % change -75 – 30 -30 – 20 -20 – 10 -10 – 0 0 – 10 10 – 20 20 – 30 30 – 40 40 – 50 50 – 75 75 – 100 100+ © Winter Precipitation... 1971–1990 2041–2060 September Impacts of sea level rise... Sea level rise, more extreme weather, and a loss of sea ice will contribute to more erosion and flooding along vulnerable Arctic shorelines. Higher sea levels with less ice cover will expose more of the coast to both normal waves and more powerful storm waves. Did you know? Increased coastal erosion may result in the loss of many Dorset and Thule archaeological sites. Traditional lifestyles... Early break-up or complete loss of ice would have a profound effect on northern life. Adaptation has always been a way of life in the North, however, the rate at which changes are predicted to occur could make adaptation even more challenging in the future. Source: Torrie Smith Associates PV-Wind-Diesel Hybrid System, Tanquary Fiord We may not be able to change the fact that we live in a cold climate or that we depend on our vehicles; however, we can use energy more efficiently and switch to alternative energy sources that produce fewer greenhouse gases than fossil fuels. Transportation 20% Heating and electricity 78% Industrial 75% Thermosyphons act to remove heat from the ground and dissipate it into the air. This prevents the melting of permafrost by cooling the ground and keeping it frozen. The solution... Nunavut Residential 25% Blanket of smog lying over Iqaluit Burning garbage is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation 53% Source: NWT GHG Strategy Human health... Thermosyphons What you can do to help... 1. Reduce your vehicle fuel consumption. Only use your vehicle when necessary and avoid leaving it running. CO2 reduction: 2.5 kg per litre of gas 2. Wash your laundry in warm or cold water instead of hot. CO2 reduction (for two loads a week): up to 225 kg per year 3. Buy energy efficient compact flourescent lightbulbs for your most frequently used lights. Alternative... A photovoltaic (PV) array converts sunlight directly into electricity. It also charges a battery bank to store electricity for those periods when it is cloudy. Hybrid systems combine PV technology with wind generators to produce electricity and use a diesel generator only as a backup. CO2 reduction (for one frequently used bulb): about 225 kg per year Greenhouse gases and other pollutants can directly affect 4. Caulk and weatherstrip around doors and windows to plug air leaks. human health. Climate warming may also affect food and CO2 reduction: up to 450 kg per year water quality, and increase the range of some infectuous 5. Talk to your local municipal councils about setting up recycling and diseases. In Nunavut, however, the impact of climate change composting programs. on human health is not yet clear and further studies are needed. Did you know? As fuel prices rise, photovoltaic arrays are becoming more cost effective for the North than traditional energy sources. Geological Survey of Canada, Miscellaneous Report 71, 2001 Did you know? REFERENCES Bourgeois, J.C. 2000: Seasonal and intrannual pollen variability in snow layers of arctic ice caps; Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, v. 108, p. 17–36. CANMET 1995: Renewable Energy and Hybrid Systems -A Green Energy Alternative; fact sheet, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario. Canadian Arctic Resources Committee 1996: Voices from the Bay; in Northern Perspectives, v. 25, no. 1; available http://www.carc.org/pugs/v25no1/voices.htm Canadian Arctic Resources Committee 1987: A question of degrees; in Northern Perspectives, v. 15, no. 5, 16 p. Edlund, S.A. 1986: Modern arctic vegetation distribution and its congruence with summer climate patterns; in Proceedings, Impact of Climatic Change on the Canadian High Arctic, (ed.) H.M. French; Environment Canada, Ottawa, p. 84–99. Environment Canada 1994: Modelling the Global Climate System; in Climate Change Digest, CCD 94-01, Environment Canada, Ottawa, 20 p. 1997: What is climate change?; available at http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/whatis/index.html 1999a: The science of climate change; available at http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/saib/climate/climatechange/cc_presentation_e.PDF 1999b: The science of climate change -information nuggets; available at http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/cd/climate/nuggets_e.cfm 2000: Climate trends and variations bulletin for Canada -winter 1999/2000 temperature and precipitiation in historical perspective; available at http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/winter00/index.html Environmental Defense 1999: Steps to reduce global warming; available at http://www.edf.org/want2help/b_gw20steps.html Fisher, D.A., Koerner, R.M., and Reeh, N. 1995: Holocene climatic records from Agassiz Ice Cap, Ellesmere Island, NWT, Canada; The Holocene, v. 5, no. 1, p. 19–24 Flato, G.M., Boer, G.J., Lee, W.G., McFarlane, N.A., Ransden, D., Reader, M.C., and Weaver, A.J. 2000: The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model and its climate; Climate Dynamics (in press) In the Sanikiluaq area, recent cooling trends have resulted in more ice cover and the eider duck population, which depends on open water for food and warmth, has been suffering. Nunatsiaq News - October 24, 1997 Aboriginal Hunters Tell Their Stories: Climate Change in Hudson Bay Expected changes in the range and distribution of animals such as polar bear, seal and walrus may require changes to Inuit hunting practices. Momma has her own idea of the perfect instrument configuration for this buoy News North - April 5, 1999 Arctic Turns Tropic? “When it gets too warm, the animals go to where it’s cooler.” Fisheries and Oceans Canada March Annual precipitation is predicted to increase by up to 25% over the next century; however, these changes will vary seasonally. This means that the amount and type of precipitation will vary by season. For example, in the northern regions winter snow cover may be reduced by up to 30 days and in western regions snow may be replaced by rain or freezing rain in early spring and autumn. Sea ice provides a platform for monitoring change in the Arctic and for studying the interaction of climate, sea ice, and the marine ecosystem. The International Arctic Buoy Program (http://iabp.apl. washington.edu) provides real time and climate data from the remote regions of the Arctic Basin. Appliance and lighting 10% Garbage 10% Home heating 19% Water heating 7% Did you know? Incineration 2% Local impacts... © Donald G. Barton, 1992 Flato et al., in press GCMs project an overall increase in the annual mean temperature of 1°C to 3.5°C over the next 100 years. Not all areas will be affected equally, however, and the Canadian Arctic is expected to experience more substantial changes than southern regions. In the west, temperature increases of 5–7°C are predicted, while in the east warming is predicted to be much less. Temperature changes will also differ between seasons with more overall warming occurring in the winter months. Source: Shaw et al. 1998 Canada In western Hudson Bay, it is likely the range and feeding patterns of polar bears will change. A potential shift in seal habitat, as well as longer icefree periods, will make it harder for bears to hunt and they may not be able to store enough fat to survive. Lack of food and hunger could increase ‘nuisance’ bears in communities where garbage or other sources of food can easily be found. Polar bears also give birth to their young in snow caves. The integrity of these caves depends on snow conditions. Warming conditions may mean several marine mammals will experience a change in their range and abundance. For example, walrus and bearded seals require strong sea ice as platforms for breeding, nursing pups, and resting. Beluga and bowhead whales, however, do not rely on ice cover as much and are therefore not expected to be significantly impacted by climate warming. Polynyas are areas of open water surrounded by sea ice. They often form in the same place each winter. Research... The source of our emissions... A large portion of Canada’s CO2 emissions come from the residential sector. One of the reasons is because we live in a cold climate, particularly in the North, and we use a lot of energy to heat our homes. Our large land area and scattered population also means that we rely heavily on transportation to link our communities. Greenhouse gas emissions Impact on other marine mammals... Did you know? Moderate High Adaptation... DEGREES OF VARIATION - CLIMATE CHANGE IN NUNAVUT Shore polynya on Jones Sound P.D. Sutherland Temperature... Summer Traditional knowledge is used to predict ice conditions and guide hunters in travel and work at the floe edge. Changes in fast ice behavior, such as unusually early break-up, have made predicting ice conditions more difficult and caused dangerous situations in recent years, like the incident of June 1997. Polynyas and ice edges are important for northern waters. They serve as feeding, mating, spawning, and overwintering grounds for many marine birds and mammals. The amount of plankton in these areas also means that fish populations thrive. The fate of these polynyas in a warmer climate is currently being studied. Environment Canada, 1999a Summer Traditional knowledge... Very white areas are open water Every litre of gas you use in your vehicle produces almost 2.5 kg of CO2 , as well as many other pollutants. 25 About 1/3 of Canada’s CO2 and NOx emissions come from transportation. Nunatsiaq News - November 19, 1999 Warmer Weather Threatens Hudson Bay Polar Bears Wildlife... Low Winter News North - April 5, 1999 Arctic Turns Tropic? “Years ago, we used to travel by dog team in the middle of July over the ice … but now, by July, people are boating.” - Kugluktuk 0 20 20 15 Tonnes per year Impact on polar bears... Nunatsiaq News - June 13, 1997 Stranded Students Safe and Sound After Ordeal Canadian Ice Service Environment Canada, 1999a Variations in sea level... Regional differences in sea level will depend on average sea level, as well as on regional geological adjustments. During the last ice age, the land was pushed down under the weight of the glaciers. As the glaciers retreated, the land started to rebound to its original level. Most areas in the Arctic are still slowly rebounding so increases in global sea-level rise may not be much of a problem. On eastern Baffin Island and the northwest Arctic Islands, the land is no longer rebounding so these coasts are more at risk. In the Arctic, ocean temperature varies only a few degrees (-2 to +3oC), so any increase in temperature could have major impacts on the marine ecosystem. Satellite imagery tracks ice floe where students drifted for 6 days 10 Did you know? Did you know? Canadian Ice Service -1 – 0 0–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5 – 10 10 – 15 15 – 20 20+ 2050 Sensitivity to sea-level rise Over the last 200 years, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have begun to accumulate in the atmosphere. These gases may now be strengthening the natural greenhouse effect with the potential of accelerating planet- wide climate change. Based on intermediate CO2 °C 2025 If the Greenland Ice Sheet melts, it contains enough ice to raise the global sea level by 6–7m. As the climate warms, water levels in the world’s oceans are expected to rise. The expansion of sea water as it warms and the melting of ice caps and glaciers will contribute to this global increase in mean sea levels. The impact of climate change on marine species is difficult to predict. Changes in water temperature, ocean currents, ice cover, and nutrient supply, are likely to affect the availability and location of food sources. Species that depend on snow and ice cover for habitat, feeding, or reproduction will also be affected. As the climate and ocean temperatures begin to change, scientists predict a northward shift in the range of many marine species. Northwest Territories Dept. of Information/NWT Archives Projected temperature changes 1975–1995 average vs. 2080–2100 average 2000 Did you know? ing 800 London – Tokyo Northwest Passage (14 600 km) Panama Canal (23 300 km) Rising sea levels... 5 0 Douglas Wilkinson/NWT Archives CO2 concentration (parts per million, volume) 900 The future of CO2 ... Many climate change predictions depend on the future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 . These future concentrations will depend on global development and our commitment to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In the figure (left), the high estimate assumes an increase in the burning of fossil fuels, while the low estimate assumes a switch to alternative energy sources. Projected CO2 concentrations (to 2100) Environment Canada, 1999a General Circulation Models (GCMs) are created to simulate the Earth’s climate. These computer models are made up of many complicated mathematical equations, but are only an approximation of the real climate system. There are still many aspects of our climate that we do not fully understand and many interactions that cannot be accurately represented by these models. draining glacier dammed lake Did you know? A shift in the marine ecosystem? Fisheries and Oceans Canada D.G. Hodgson, GSC 2000-056B CLIMATE PROJECTIONS As in the photo to the right, glaciers may act as a barrier to water drainage and create glacierdammed lakes. With the predicted melting expected from climate change, these glacier dams may break and result in flooding of land downstream. Less ice in the North would make access to communities easier and create longer shipping seasons. Climate models also suggest the opening of the 'Northwest Passage' is likely. This could see the Arctic become a major international shipping route. More marine traffic could benefit many northern communities and industries, but it could also create social change, increase environmental hazards, and raise sovereignty issues. Cloud of smoke from burning dump 1 CANMET Records from ice caps in Nunavut show significant annual variations, but no obvious trend over the past thirty years; however, South Melville Ice Cap in the western Arctic (N.W.T.) is beginning to show a trend toward more summer melt. Nunatsiaq News - June 4, 1999 Get Ready Shippers - Sealift’s A Month Early This Year Flooding potential... Predicting the future... In the North, sea ice is a fact of life. It can affect shipping and the resupply of isolated communities; however, many traditional northern activities, such as travel, hunting, and fishing, depend on its presence. ã2000 The Living Earth, Inc. Forecasting events such as high smog levels or dangerous ice conditions can help prevent risks to human health and safety. The prototype landfast ice break-up advisory is part of a pilot study to meet the changing needs o f n o r t h e r n communities. S.A. Wolfe, GSC 2000-058B Summer sea ice conditions vary from year to year. In 1998, the warmest year in Canada since 1951, sea ice extent for the Arctic Islands was a record minimum. 3.9 2.7 India LIFE AT SEA The two sides of ice... Norwegian Bay: Convoy to Eureka Monitors of climate change... Storm frequency... Sea ice cover... Canadian Ice Service Borehole records indicate that ground surface temperature is warming. In the North, increased ground temperatures may drastically affect permafrost. 20 OF ICE AND MEN GLACIERS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE D.G. Hodgson, GSC 2000-056A Ground temperatures... 40 1920 7.2 China 60 0 1900 For most of Canada, the winter of 2000 was drier than normal. In Nunavut, however, conditions were actually wetter. 9 8.5 World average 80 Precipitation... Open water or berg water 1/10 to 4/10 5/10 to 10/10 2000 Japan Ukraine K. Parlee, GSC 2000-058C 1900 10.2 9.3 Italy Canadian Ice Service Year 1800 Germany United Kingdom 2000 Frequency of intense winter storms in the northern hemisphere 100 12.2 C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053A 1700 Environment Canada, 2000 Total concentration for September 28, 1998 1990 ALERT Northwest Territories Dept. of Information/NWT Archives 1600 1950 1960 1970 1980 Relative to 1961 – 1990 average temperature 17 Russian Federation Canadian Ice Service 1500 -2.0 % 1000 150 90 70 50 30 10 -10 -30 -50 -70 -90 -150 For southern Nunavut, the winter of 2000 was warmer. However, northern areas and areas along the eastern Arctic Islands were cooler. Huang et al., 2000 Observed -1.0 -0.5 1961 – 1990 normals Temperature... -0.5 0.0 -1.5 Environment Canada, 2000 0.0 0.5 20.5 Canada TORONTO -1.0 Winter 2000: precipitation change from normal United States Canadian Ice Service Global ground surface temperature change 1500 – 2000 1.5 Environment Canada, 1999a Temperature difference from today (°C) -0.6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 Relative to 1961 – 1990 average temperature 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 OTTAWA 1.0 Adaptation... 1995 CO2 per capita emissions from selected countries Ear th , Inc. -0.4 °C Rosemary Kuptana in ‘Inuit Perspectives on Climate Change’ HALIFAX QUEBEC CITY Liv -0.2 1961 – 1990 normals FREDERICTON WINNIPEG e 0.0 Temperature (°C) Environment Canada, 1999a 0.2 News North - July 24, 2000 It’s So Wet... “When my grandfather was growing up, the elders could predict the weather, but now things change all the time.” - Iqaluit Switching to alternative energy sources and using energy more efficiently can help prevent future human-induced climate change; however, our climate is already experiencing some change so adaptations are also necessary. CHARLOTTETOWN REGINA 2.0 Winter 2000: temperature change from normal “As a global human family, our fates are linked to one another, just as they are linked to the fate of our planet” Torrie Smith Associates 1999 0.4 VICTORIA Environment Canada, 1999a Temperature (°C) 0.6 Changes in the range and abundance of animals may mean local adjustments to traditional hunting and harvesting strategies. It may also mean changes to traditional diet. In addition, the meat quality is expected to decline and this may affect nutritional health of people dependant on country food. Alternatives and adaptations... Canada has a relatively small population compared to other countries, yet we are one of the biggest greenhouse gas producers. In fact, we rank second per capita in CO2 emissions. EDMONTON Canadian temperature change 1948 – 1999 2.5 Storms per winter 0.8 Nunatsiaq News - June 2, 2000 Inuit Elders Say the Arctic Climate is Changing Local impacts... Our current status... ST JOHN’S Th Global temperature change 1860 – 1999 Over the last 100 years Canada’s climate has been changing, with the most significant changes occuring in the last few decades. These changes however vary across the country by region, as well as by season. Climate change varies significantly within the Canadian North. The west has been warming, with the greatest temperature increases occurring in the winter and spring. The east however, has experienced a general cooling trend, with greatest temperature decreases occurring during the winter and spring. Lemming THE CHALLENGE Climate change in Canada... Climate change in the North... Ice-layered snow may create problems for small mammals. Ice layers trap CO2 causing it to build up under the snow. As CO2 levels rise, small mammals can be poisoned by the gas or forced to the surface, where they may freeze or be caught by a predator. EUREKA 0 The rate of climate change today is more rapid than in the recent past. Temperature records indicate the Earth has warmed over the past 100 years, with the 10 warmest years on record occurring since 1980. The Queen Maud Gulf lowlands are a major breeding and nesting ground for migratory birds. Climate warming may change this sensitive environment and adversely affect bird populations. IQALUIT YELLOWKNIFE Climate change alert... Did you know? Northwest Territories Dept. of Information/NWT Archives GRISE FIORD WHITEHORSE In northern regions, warming may extend nesting periods, provide more food for young and decrease chick mortality. In the southern regions, however, particularly the mainland, warming may reduce breeding and forage habitats. Sea-level rise may also damage important shoreline nesting areas and increased storms during nesting season could destroy essential nesting efforts, eggs, and chicks. Caribou Ice-covered arctic poppy 2000 1 1990 Canadian Arctic ice cores (Devon and Agassiz ice cap) Arctic poppy Birds and waterfowl... S. Wolfe, GSC 2000-059A Holocene Ice Age Last Interglacial 0 1985 20 000 1980 40 000 1975 60 000 80 000 1970 100 000 2 D.G. Hodgson, GSC 2000-056C 120 000 Changes in the variability or in the frequency of extremes may be as important to life in Nunavut, as the longer term warming or cooling trends. Muskoxen 3 1965 Climate variability... Caribou and muskoxen are very dependent on access to tundra vegetation, so an increase in encrusted snow cover may put such vegetation beyond their reach. Many large mammals also migrate to seasonal feeding grounds. Changes in the timing and extent of ice cover may see a change in migration patterns or an increase in drownings as they attempt to cross unsafe ice. Due to low nutrient supply in the soil, doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will have relatively little direct effect on plant growth in the Arctic; however, warmer temperatures resulting from increased CO2 could change the tundra thaw depth, litter quality, and soil nutrients. As a result, it is expected that species currently at their northern limit will expand northward. In southern areas, tundra vegetation may disappear and in the remaining northern tundra areas, there would be more shrub cover and a decrease in forbs and lichens. RESOLUTE 0 1950 2000 Temperature (°C) Climatic Optimum 4000 Ptarmigan in the snow Ottawa Citizen - April 18, 2000 Inuit Track Early Global Warming Trends: Report Documents Unusual Sightings of Birds, Animals in the Arctic Vegetation... S.A. Edlund, GSC 2000-057A 1000 years ago the North Atlantic climate was like today. During this period, called the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, Vikings sailed in Canada’s northern waters. CLYDE RIVER Eastern high arctic average summer temperatures: 1946 – 1998 5 6000 8000 10000 12000 Last 150 thousand years 140 000 Tall willows - a warmer climate may enable this species to move into more of the southern Arctic Islands Data from Environment Canada -11oC CAMBRIDGE BAY Red Knot C. Gilbert, GSC 2000-053D J.C. Bourgeois J. Zhang, GSC 2000-O54 Did you know? 1825 0oC +3oC 0oC KUGLUKTUK Last 12 thousand years +3oC -3oC TALOYOAK Warming is expected to increase food availability for plant-eating animals; however, changes in the timing of these food sources, an increase in parasites and insect-borne disease, and more insect harassment may lead to population declines. In addition, southern species may slowly begin to move into the area and increase competition for food and space with traditional animal species. QIKIQTARJUAQ Current temperature trends show that over the past 50 years Nunavut has experienced both strong warming and cooling. The warming trend occurs primarily in the west, where as the east has undergone a cooling trend. 1960 1982 Arctic willows - a warmer climate may enable this species to become more widespread in the High Arctic Islands Current observations... 1955 1984 Above present normal temperature HALL BEACH IGLOOLIK UMINGMAKTOK Wildlife... NWT Archives 1985 KUGAARUK PANGNIRTUNG Last 200 years o GJOA HAVEN BATHURST INLET S. Robinson, GSC 2000-055 1986 1980 IQALUIT Zhang et al., 2000 Snow pit wall REPULSE BAY Climate warming is predicted to cause increased plant growth, a northward movement of the treeline, declines in snow cover and the thickness and extent of permafrost, reduced browse for caribou, decreased water availability; and increased forest fires. S.A. Edlund, GSC 2000-057C 200 years ago the climate was colder than today. During this period, called the ‘Little Ice Age’, northern waters were ice choked and European explorers could not navigate the Northwest Passage. CAPE DORSET KIMMIRUT 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 Did you know? Ice cores ready for transport 1981 The future... What the past is telling us... S.A. Edlund, GSC 2000-057B Ice cores drilled from the tops of Canadian Arctic ice caps provide detailed records of past environments, including temperature changes, precipitation changes, and changes in atmospheric pollutants and gases. On the walls of snow pits dug at the top of the ice cap, the seasonal layers can be seen and sampled. Reconstructed temperature records extend the very short weather station records back to before the last ice age. LIFE ON THE LAND BAKER LAKE Trends in annual daily maximum temperature 1950 – 1998 2 CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS CHANGED The past preserved... RANKIN INLET CHESTERFIELD INLET This poster is available from the Geological Survey of Canada book stores: 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8 3303-33rd Street N.W., Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A7 101-605 Robson Street, Vancouver, British Columbia V63 5T3 Government of Canada 1999: Canada’s Perspective on Climate Change; Government of Canada, Ottawa, 24 p. Huang, S., Pollack, P. and Shen, Y. 2000: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures; Nature, v. 403, p. 756–758 Hengeveld, H.G. 2000: Projections for Canada’s climate future; Climate Change Digest, CCD 00-01, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario. International Arctic Science Committee 1999: Impacts of Global Climate Change in the Arctic Regions; in Report from a Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate Change -Tromso, Norway; (ed.) G. Weller and M. Lang; 59 p. Inuit Circumpolar Conference 1997: The Hudson Bay Programme Traditional Knowledge Study; available at http://www.unsiaat.com/hb.htm Koerner, R.M. 1995: Report on Mass Balance of Arctic Glaciers; in International Arctic Science Committee, Working Group on Arctic Glaciology -Oslo, Norway; (ed.) J. Jania. and J.O. Hagen; p. 5-8 plus tables. Maxwell, B. 1997: Responding to Global Climate Change in Canada’s Arctic, Vol II of the Canada Country Study -Climate Impacts and Adaptations, Environment Canada; 82 p. Natural Resources Canada 2000: Sensitivities to Climate Change in Canada; 33 p. Robinson, S.D. in press:Thaw slump derived thermokarst in the vicinity of Hot Weather Creek; in Environmental Response to Climate Change in the Canadian High Arctic, (ed.) M. Garneau and B.T. Alt; Geological Survey of Canada, Bulletin 529. Solomon, S., Taylor, B., Dallimore, S.R., and Wolfe, S.A. 1999: Coastal process studies; in Permafrost Climate Change Studies, Geological Survey of Canada. Stirling, I., Nicholas, J.L., and Iacozza, J. 1999: Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change; Arctic, v. 52, no. 3, p. 294–306. Wolfe, S. 1998: Living with frozen ground – a field guide to permafrost in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories; Geological Survey of Canada, Miscellaneous Report 64, 71 p. Zhang, X., Vincent, L.A., Hogg, W.D., and Ain Niitsoo 2000: Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century; Atmoshpere-Ocean, p. 395–429 Edited by: Kathryn Parlee and Bea Alt Graphic design and cartography: K. Parlee and C. Gilbert Research: K. Markwell, S. Qaunaq, S. Robinson, and S. Smith Project director: B. Lavender Project management: B. Alt and D. Scott Contributors, advisors, and reviewers: J. Bourgeois, E. Baddaloo, M. Burgess, R. DeAbreu, L. Dyke, S. Edlund, P. Edwards, D. Fisher, G. Flatto, H. Hengeveld, D. Hodgson, W. Hogg, E. Hudson, J. Hyatt, B. Inuktalik, S. Jeffers, S. Joss, R. Koerner, A.G. Lewkowicz, S. Martel, B. MacIsaac, S. McCourt, J. Naufal, A. Niitsoo, F. Rainville, B. Rigby, P. Schledermann, J. Shaw, J. Shirley, I. Stirling, P. D. Sutherland, R. Taylor, N. Thorpe, L. Ussak, L. Vincent,S. Wolfe, C. Zdanowicz, and X. Zhang Website: J. Sekerka Education committee: B. Johnson, K. Giesbrecht Lead agencies: Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada; Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office Other participating agencies: Canadian Ice Service; CANMET; Department of Sustainable Development, Nunavut; Environment Canada; Inukshuk Secondary School, Iqaluit; Meteorological Service of Canada; Nunavut Research Institute; Qarmartalik School, Resolute Bay; Ummimak School, Grise Fiord Available for viewing at: Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office, 626 Tumiit Building, P.O. Box 2319 Iqaluit, Nunavut Website: www.nrcan.gc.ca/gsc/education_e.html Funding provided in part by the Aussi disponible en francais s8N w8ktg xgw6NsuJ Government of Canada Climate Change Action Fund © 2001. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Natural Resources Canada Catalogue . No M41-8/71E ISBN 0-660-18358-7