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Decoupling Growth from Carbon: Possibilities and Policies Presentation to the Economy and Environment Panel Seventh European Forum for Science and Technology Efficiency of European Science and its Global Competitiveness Professor Paul Ekins Professor of Energy and Environment Policy King’s College London Thursday 22nd May, 2008 University of Economics, Prague 1 The Challenge of Carbon Decoupling • Decoupling: a decline in the ratio of the amount used of a certain resource, or of the environmental impact, to the value generated or otherwise involved in the resource use or environmental impact. The unit of decoupling is therefore a weight per unit of value. • Relative decoupling: in a growing economy, the ratio of resource use (e.g. energy consumption) or environmental impact (e.g. carbon emissions) to GDP decreases • Absolute decoupling: in a growing economy, the resource use or environmental impact falls in absolute terms • If GDP growth continues, climate stabilisation at levels of CO2 concentration that limit global average temperature increases to 2oC will require a degree of absolute decoupling of GDP from carbon emissions that is outside all previous experience 2 UK Carbon Emissions – 2002 Total = 165 mtc Aviation 11 Domestic in home 47 88 18 Domestic transport Source: “The carbon emissions in all that we consume”, Carbon Trust, 2006 Business Business and public sector emissions (excluding transport, distribution and supply industries) 25 mtc 13 6 10 100% e g o t u A t io nera gs n i d l Bui tricity) c (ele 80% 60% gs in uild B 40% 20% 0% Large Energy Intensive Industry Large Public SMEs Non- Sector Energy Intensive Source: “The UK Climate Change Programme: Carbon Trust, 2005 n ct) e r i (d 800 Kyoto GGH Target (2008 – 2012) 700 600 Domestic CO2 goal: 20% by 2010 500 26% - 32% “budget cut” by 2020 400 300 Domestic CO2 goal: 60% by 2050 200 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Climate Change Bill Commitments Millions of tonnes of CO2 equivalent UK emissions targets Categorisation of environmental policies 6 • Market/incentive-based (also called economic) instruments: include emissions trading, environmental taxes and charges, deposit-refund systems, subsidies (including the removal of perverse subsidies), green purchasing, and liability and compensation (EEA (2006, p.13). • Regulation instruments, which seek to define legal standards in relation to technologies, environmental performance, pressures or outcomes. Can also include imposition of obligations, e.g. renewable and energy efficiency obligations in the UK. • Voluntary/self-regulation (also called negotiated) agreements between governments and producing organisations. Economic actors may enter into these in order to forestall the introduction of market-based instruments or regulation. • Information/education-based instruments e.g. Eco-labels, ‘smart’ meters, may be mandatory or voluntary. Policies for carbon decoupling (1) • Economic instruments: importance of resource and emission prices, driver of efficient use, emission and waste reduction • Energy taxes: climate change levy (carbon reduced by 3.5 mtc by 2010), fuel taxes (EU emissions half what they would have been at US prices) • Emissions trading: EU ETS; Carbon Reduction Commitment 7 Policies for carbon decoupling (2) • Regulation • Renewables Obligation • Energy Efficiency Commitment (Carbon Emissions Reduction Target) • Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (control of noncarbon emissions may increase carbon emissions) • Voluntary agreements • Climate change agreements • EU fuel efficiency agreements (targets will not be met; targets will be mandatory in future, i.e. Regulation) • Information/education • Energy efficiency labels for appliances (e.g. A-rated fridge freezers 0-80% market share in 6 years) 8 Combinations of policy instruments • Market transformation • Result of the combination of a number of policy measures affecting different actors, including: EU energy labelling; marketing campaigns (e.g. Energy Efficiency Recommended branding and advertising) by the Government and its agencies (e.g. EST); consumer advice from Energy Efficiency Advice Centres; media coverage on climate change; retail staff training and point of sale material from the EST; EU Minimum Performance Standards; EEC funding for incentives for consumers to purchase the energy-efficient models. • EU Integrated Product Policy • SCP; state aid; voluntary agreements; standardisation; environmental management systems; eco-design; labelling and product declarations; greening public procurement; encouragement of green technology; and legislation in areas including waste and chemicals. • SCP (see next slide) 9 UK SCP Strategy Products Production 10 Strengthening domestic and international measures to improve the environmental performance of products and services, including improved product design Improve resource efficiency and reduce waste and harmful emissions across business sectors Consumption Influence consumption patterns, including proposals for new advice for consumers Procurement Sustainable procurement in the public sector, to make the UK a leader within the EU by 2009 Innovation Support for innovation to bring through new products, materials and services Sustainable business Increase transparency, corporate responsibility and skill in business and other organisations Waste Increased emphasis on reducing waste at source and making use of it as a resource Environmental Tax Reform (ETR)/ Green Tax and Budget Reform • EC 1993, Chapter 10: “An insufficient use of labour resources and an excessive use of environmental resources”, leading to the conclusion “If the twin challenge of unemployment/environmental pollution is to be addressed, a trade-off can be envisaged between lower labour costs higher pollution charges”. • Green taxes/charges are levied on resource use or polluting environmental emissions • Revenues from green taxes (or from reducing environmentally harmful subsidies) allow other taxes to be reduced • Some portion of the revenues can be used for essential environmental spending (e.g. on infrastructure) that is otherwise difficult to finance ETRs in Europe • Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and UK – all very small; different tax base (energy, CO2, sectors), tax rates, revenue recycling, exemptions; all have exemptions because of competitiveness fears (COMETR) Economic and environmental effects of ETR • Green taxes reduce environmental resource use • Green taxes achieve efficient resource use and environmental improvement at least cost by promoting • • • • Static efficiency (equal abatement cost) Dynamic efficiency (incentives for innovation) Awareness of inefficient resource use Abatement technologies can lead to new industries • Reduction of other distorting taxes reduces net cost of abatement (revenue neutrality) • If innovation, awareness, industrial cost reduction, reduced distortions are greater than abatement costs, then environmental improvement can be achieved at net gain to the economy – green economic growth (double dividend) Policy conclusions • Relative, but not absolute, carbon decoupling (carbon emissions have risen in UK since 1977, despite Climate Change Programme policies) • (Much) More stringent application of policy instruments (especially price-based to avoid rebound effects) is required • Environmental tax reform (ETR) • Political feasibility • Implications for economic growth 13 Growth in UK living standards: business as usual GDP per capita 2006=100 300 2.4 times current level 225 150 75 100 0 2006 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: HM Treasury Assumption of 2% per annum productivity growth, Long-term Public Finance Report, December 2005 Growth in UK living standards: with 60% emissions cut GDP per capita 2006=100 300 0.3 – 2.0% lower 225 150 100 75 0 2006 2020 2030 Business as usual 2040 2050 60% emissions cut National Industrial Symbiosis Programme (NISP) • What is ‘Industrial Symbiosis’ ? “Industrial symbiosis engages traditionally separate industries and other organisations in a collective approach to competitive advantage involving physical exchanges of materials, energy, water and/or by products together with collaboration on the shared use of assets, logistics, experts and knowledge transfer.” Modified from Chertow, Yale 2000 Connecting Industry – Creating Opportunity Through the Intelligent Use of Information Industrial Symbiosis for a circular economy Linear system Natural resources Circular system Products Waste (to disposal) Products Natural resources Waste to resource Products Waste to resource Natural resources What is NISP? Regionally Delivered, Nationally Coordinated • 12 regional offices across the UK - England, Wales, Scotland, & N. Ireland • 12 Business led Programme Advisory Groups (Corus, Veolia, Lafarge, BMW, Bombardier etc) • Independent Board (Governance) • Funding £8.5M 2007/8 • 90 + Practitioners Who are NISP’s 9500+ Members? PAG Members Corporates SMEs Micros • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Corus Marley Eternit NEC Ltd ConocoPhillips Anglian Water Services Ltd Associated British Ports SITA RIX BioDiesel Scottish & Newcastle Shell Peel Investments Foster Yeoman Bombardier • • • • • • • • • • • • • Premier Automotive Group BOC Clancey IKEA Johnson Matthey Wedgwood Sainsburys Rentokil Millennium Chemicals Lafarge Cement Coors Brewers Severn Trent Veolia Tarmac • • • • • • • • • B.C.R Company G&P Batteries Overtone Recycling Premier Waste Renewable Energy Growers Pennine Fibre Industries Firth Rixson Castings Country Chef The Cheese Co. Green BioDiesel Alutrade Betts Kingpin Auto Waste Solutions KEY POINTS • Business led • 9500 + members (Sept ‘07) • All sizes: Multi-nationals, SMEs, Micros, Entrepreneurs • All sectors dealing with all resources • • • • • • • • • • Link Waste Arrow Environmental Marches Wood Energy Network Akristos Kito Engineering Solutions Facility Water Management Enviro (Grimsby) Clarkson Enterprises Sustainable Resources Advantage Waste Brokers UK Recycling Analytichem NISP Vision “Bring about long term business culture change through profitable actions that result in measurable environmental and social benefits making a significant contribution to international sustainability” What NISP achieves … NISP INCREASES NISP REDUCES Jobs Use of Virgin resources Sales Use of potable water Learning Hazardous waste Bottom line CO2 emissions Innovation Transport New business Pollution Inward investment Landfill Knowledge transfer Costs Utilisation of assets Risk NISP helps create real business opportunity NISP Outputs so far … Metrics… April 2005 – March 2008 Increased sales Delivery Per £ inv £123.4m £49.36 £89.2m £35.68 £110.1m £44.04 Virgin raw material savings (tonnes) 5.99m 2.4t Carbon savings (tonnes) 4.43m 1.77t Water savings (tonnes) 9.22m 3.69t Waste diverted from landfill (tonnes) 3.39m 1.36t 333,188 - 1870 - Cost savings to business Private Capital Investment Hazardous Waste (tonnes) Jobs Created / Safeguarded • Some words on stats verified, understated, England only • Future capacity enormous … NISP International Impact Awards… • Ranked Defra No.1 BREW project 2005/6, 2006/7, 2007/8 • European Exemplar project of Eco-Innovation International outreach • USA • Chicago • US EPA meeting October 2007 in Washington • Europe … Potential for roll out via the European Environmental Technologies Action Programme (ETAP) … Romania, Eire, Portugal • Yunnan Province, China 2007, Mexico City 2007+ UNIDO + World Bank • Sustainable Development Dialogues – Mexico, China, Brazil, South Africa, India National Industrial Symbiosis Programme (NISP) • NISP as a (still small-scale) exemplar • Programme Director: Peter Laybourn • Operational Director: Ian Bryan • National Chairman: Professor Paul Ekins Phone : +44 121 433 2650 E-mail : [email protected] Web : www.nisp.org.uk www.international-synergies.com