Download Monsoon environments and the impacts of climate variability and

Monsoon environments and the impacts of climate variability and
change: Overview of the EU PROMISE project
Julia Slingo
NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, UK
The EU FP5 project on ‘Predictability and variability of monsoons and the agricultural and
hydrological impacts of climate change (PROMISE)’ aims to address two key issues for
monsoon-affected countries: (i) the potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits that
would accrue in terms of the management of water resources and crops, and (ii) the impacts of
anthropogenic climate change on these semi-arid regions, in particular on the availability of
water resources for human use, and on the productivity of crops and the potential changes in
the natural vegetation.
PROMISE is an interdisciplinary project, which has developed further the atmospheric
science base in seasonal and climate change prediction for monsoon-affected countries, and
consolidated the links between atmospheric science and the impacts communities related to
hydrology and agriculture. A key element of PROMISE has been the development of proactive links with scientists from monsoon-affected countries with the aim of engaging them in
the progress and direction of the research.
PROMISE has three main science themes:
(i) Natural variability and predictability of monsoon climates on seasonal, interannual and
interdecadal timescales.
(ii) Assessment of anthropogenic climate change scenarios for monsoon climates.
(iii) Impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on ground hydrology and crop
systems.
To cover these various themes, PROMISE involves partners from the seasonal prediction and
climate modelling communities, as well as specialists in modelling ground hydrology, river
flows and crop productivity and who have particular expertise in the semi-arid tropics. The
research exploits existing or planned numerical simulations on seasonal and climate
timescales, such as seasonal prediction ensembles, current climate simulations forced with
observed sea surface temperatures for the 20th century, and climate change scenario
simulations for the 21st century. The land surface is the link through to the crop and
hydrological applications, and so land surface processes and the impacts of changes in land
use have been particular foci for PROMISE.
In addition to the main science themes, PROMISE incorporates a significant programme of
collaboration with scientists and users of PROMISE-related research in monsoon-affected
countries. In order to improve the exchange of results between research institutions in
European and extra-European countries, an easily accessible database with selected results
from numerical simulations has been established. PROMISE has also sponsored two activities
at the UNESCO International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) which is specifically
geared towards providing research and training opportunities for scientists from developing
countries.
The presentation will provide a brief overview of the project, will give some specific
examples of new research enabled by PROMISE and will summarise key results of the project.