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TURKEY’S POSITION IN RELATION TO THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND THE POST 2012 FRAMEWORK Presented by Anna Kaplina Opportunities in the Carbon Market June 2009 Content Current climate change negotiations EU international climate change policy Turkey’s current position and next steps Turkey and the new emissions trading mechanisms Low-carbon Development Strategies Conclusions 1 Current situation in the international CC negotiations 9The KP under amendment (AWG-KP) - new binding commitments for developed countries, improvement of flexible mechanisms 9The UNFCCC implementation to be strengthened (AWG-LCA) - new structures for mitigation, adaptation, financing, technology transfer, capacity building to be designed In Bali (2007) developing countries agreed to seek ways to make “measurable, reportable and verifiable” (MVR) emissions cuts trough implementing of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) In Copenhagen (December 2009) Parties to agree on the main features of the post 2012 climate change regime, both under the KP and the UNFCCC 2 Recent EU climate change international policy EC Communication 28/01/2009 “Towards a Comprehensive Climate Change Agreement in Copenhagen” • emission reduction commitments for at least – all countries listed in Annex I to the UNFCCC – all OECD member countries – all current EU Member States, EU candidate countries and potential candidates • to engage with developing countries, especially with the economically more advanced ones, so that they take appropriate actions that will deliver collectively a deviation of 15-30 % below business as usual in 2020 • all developing countries, should commit to adopting lowcarbon development strategies by the end of 2011 3 Implications for Turkey High expectations of the world and of the EU on Turkey that it will undertake commitments However, possibilities of Turkey to take binding commitments are limited Urgent actions are needed to position Turkey in the post 2012 regime 4 Context - Turkey 9High levels of total GHG emissions 9Rapid growth of the GHG emissions due to economic and population growth 9Low GDP per capita, low CO2 per capita 9Some measures to reduce GHG emissions in place or planned, incl. development of NCCAP 5 Greenhouse gases emission trends by sectors 300 250 150 100 50 0 -50 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 -100 19 90 CO2 eq. (million tones) 200 Year Energy Indust rial P rocesses Agricult ure Wast e Land use and land use change 6 Turkey’s situation – unique and rather complicated Member of the OECD Annex I, but Decision 26/CP.7 - in a position that is different to that of other Annex I countries Party to the KP (26 August 2009), but not in Annex B Candidate for EU membership Not able to participate in KP flexible mechanisms 7 Options for Turkey Option Annex B Negotiate special position (non Annex B) Consequences Meeting the expectations, but difficult to define and comply, possible JI Not meeting the expectations, including those of the EU, but easier to comply and reflects the national circumstances. NAMAs to be in place, possible sectoral emissions trading Outside of the new Outside of the international arena, problems with all other related international treaties and EU 2012 regime membership 8 Where is Turkey currently and what is next? (1) Turkey has already announced its plans to take NAMAs for emission limitation and to adopt “no-lose target” This should be further advanced in estimating concrete numbers for deviation from the BAU and development of a Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS). For this purpose an extensive national dialogue has to be triggered urgently Extensive coordination with EU is critical when Turkey is shaping its position 9 Where is Turkey currently and what is next? (2) Turkey should closely observe negotiations about possible new country grouping under the KP Annexes. The country should position itself accordingly Negotiations are continuing on removing Turkey’s name from the proposed negotiating text for Annex B list Turkey should position itself in a way that will enable participation in the possible new flexible mechanisms 10 Where is Turkey currently and what is next? (3) Two additional negotiating meetings (10-14 August, Bonn and 02-06 November, Barcelona) of the AWG-KP and AWG-LCA will provide more opportunities for Turkey to negotiate its position New text for the further commitments of the Annex I Parties under the KP to be distributed on 17 June 2009, possible submission on Turkey’s position towards Annex B and flexible mechanisms Proposals for long-term cooperative actions under UNFCCC, incl. shared vision, mitigation, adaptation, financing, technology transfer and capacity building to be forwarded to the meeting in August 11 Flexible mechanisms and Turkey Turkey is Annex I, but not Annex B, therefore not eligible neither for JI nor for CDM The only option - Voluntary Carbon Market In the future Turkey will possibly have the same status, but eventually it may be able to implement sectoral emissions trading and NAMAs emissions trading 12 Sectoral emissions trading (under negotiations) Parties not included in Annex B (some proposals non Annex I) may propose sectoral emissions targets (EU, as part of their LCDS) Sectoral emissions targets should deviate significantly from BAU for those sectors Efficiently monitored, reported and reviewed Parties with sectoral emission targets may participate in emissions trading Modalities to be further developed by COP 13 NAMAs emissions trading (under negotiations) NAMAs crediting mechanism under the KP is under consideration Credits from verifiable NAMAs of the non Annex I Parties (non Annex B) can be issued in order to assist the achievement of SD and contributing to combating climate change Modalities to be further decided by COP (CDM rules and bodies might be used) NAMAs part of a LCDS (EU and Turkey) 14 Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) (LCDS) should include: Emissions inventory, incl. key parameters (e.g. emission intensity) and a projection of BAU emissions for key sectors Portfolio of actions to address emissions in key sectors following a twotrack approach: • autonomous action (mainly “win-win” and low-cost action), mainly to be financed and implemented by the country itself, could be supported by capacity building and targeted international loan schemes; • internationally supported action requiring assistance in the form of financing, technology or capacity building. 9Estimates of emission reduction targets for each category of action, in the short term (2020-2030) and with identification of long-term (2050) targets 9Specific needs to support implementation 15 CONCLUSIONS Urgent actions needed to formulate Turkey’s positions in order to participate efficiently in the international negotiation process, incl. numbers for the deviation from the BAU for the whole country Whether included in Annex B or not, Turkey has already announced taking on “no-lose target” and should switch to lowcarbon development, employing national efforts and international support Government and industry should further strengthen their capacities and cooperate at international and national levels Possibilities to participate in the new emissions trading mechanisms should be utilized 16 Thank you! 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