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European Heart Journal (2001) 22, 849–856 doi:10.1053/euhj.2001.2654, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on Dobutamine-induced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction predicts survival of heart failure patients with severe non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy T. M. Ramahi1, M. D. Longo2, A. R. Cadariu1, K. Rohlfs1, M. Slade1, S. Carolan1, E. Vallejo1 and F. J. Th Wackers1 1 Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, U.S.A.; 2Division of Cardiology, University of Turin, Molinette Hospital, Turin, Italy Aims The prognosis of patients with severe non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy is variable. The predictive value of currently utilized tests is suboptimal. The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic value of dobutamineinduced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction in patients with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy. Methods and Results Sixty-two patients with left ventricular ejection fraction c0·30 underwent exercise testing with gas exchange analysis and assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction at rest and after a 10-min intravenous infusion of dobutamine at 10 g . kg 1 min 1, using equilibrium radionuclide ventriculography. Age was 4811 years, 32% females, functional class 2·60·6, resting left ventricular ejection fraction 0·200·06, and peak exercise oxygen consumption (mVO2) 196 ml . kg 1 min 1. Mean dobutamine-induced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 0·090·06 (median 0·08, range 0·03 to 0·26). Follow-up was 2515 months during which there were 12 deaths and five transplantations. Patients were divided into two groups based on median LVEF. The transplant-free survival was better in the Introduction The prognosis of patients with severe non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy is variable[1]. Accurate prediction of prognosis is important for guiding therapy and determining the appropriate timing of cardiac transplantation[2]. Although a host of clinical, haemodynamic, ventriculographic, and neurohormonal markers have prognostic value in large groups of patients, only few Manuscript submitted 15 February 2001. 26 November 2000, and accepted Correspondence Tarik M. Ramahi, MD, 135 College Street, Suite 301, New Haven, CT 06510-2483, U.S.A. 0195-668X/01/100849+08 $35.00/0 group with higher LVEF (94% vs 64%, P<0·008). In multivariate analysis incorporating age, gender, duration of chronic heart failure, functional class, right and left ventricular ejection fraction, LVEF, left ventricular enddiastolic volume index, and mVO2, only LVEF was predictive of 1-year, 3-year, and overall transplant-free survival (RR 0·09, 0·03, and 0·13; P 0·03, 0·09, and 0·08 respectively). The linear correlation between LVEF and mVO2 (r=0·3) and between LVEF and left ventricular ejection fraction (r=0·5) was weak. Conclusion Dobutamine-induced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction is a strong prognostic variable, independent of exercise capacity and resting ventriculographic variables, in severe non-ischaemic systolic dysfunctional heart failure. (Eur Heart J 2001; 22: 849–856, doi:10.1053/euhj.2001.2654) 2001 The European Society of Cardiology Key Words: Heart failure, cardiomyopathy, inotropic reserve, prognosis. have achieved widespread clinical utility. Precise prediction of the prognosis of patients with severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction therefore remains a difficult task[3–9]. Resting left ventricular ejection fraction has a lower prognostic value in the severe systolic dysfunction population[10], and resting haemodynamics are dependent on the adequacy of medical therapy[11,12]. Functional capacity classification suffers from interobserver variability and bias. Exercise capacity, precisely determined by peak-exercise oxygen consumption (mVO2), is a reproducible and widely used prognostic test[13,14]. Exercise performance, however, is affected by non-cardiac factors and reflects the limitation of a highly integrated circuit involving the heart, lungs, vessels, skeletal and respiratory muscles, and autonomic nervous 2001 The European Society of Cardiology 850 T. M. Ramahi et al. system[15]. The same applies to the measurement of ventricular function and haemodynamics during exercise[16–18]. In view of the diminishing donor pool and the significant improvement of some non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy patients with medical therapy, further refinement in the ability to predict the prognosis of patients with severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction is desirable. Several observations made over the past two decades suggest a role for contractile reserve in predicting the prognosis of patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction[19–21]. The human myocardium is a predominantly -adrenergic organ in which the receptor density and sensitivity determine the response to adrenergic stimulation[22,23]. In patients with severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction, the responsiveness of the -adrenergic receptors is diminished as a result of decreased density of the 1 and sensitivity of the 2 receptors[24,25]. The extent of this ‘down-regulation’ and the consequent decrease in responsiveness to adrenergic agents are proportional to the extent of systolic dysfunction[26–28]. The diminished contractile response of myopathic hearts to inotropic agents is heterogeneous[20,21,28]. Its assessment might therefore reflect the extent of -adrenergic receptor down-regulation and provide a clinical tool for correlating the extent of abnormality of the -adrenergic pathways to prognosis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the left ventricular inotropic response to intravenous dobutamine infusion in patients with severe chronic non-ischaemic systolic dysfunction. Methods Patients The study subjects were 62 consecutive ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure, non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy, and severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction (left ventricular ejection fraction c0·30) referred to the Yale Heart Failure Clinic for consideration of cardiac transplantation. There were 42 males and 20 females. Mean age was 4811 years, and mean duration of chronic heart failure was 3·43·2 years. After stabilization on optimal medical therapy, mean functional class, assessed by the same physician, was 2·60·6. None were on intermittent or chronic intravenous inotropic infusion therapy. All patients were in normal sinus rhythm except for one with chronic atrial fibrillation. Coronary artery disease was excluded by coronary angiography. Patients who could exercise (n=52) underwent standard symptom-limited treadmill exercise tolerance testing using the Naughton or modified Naughton protocols[29]. Continuous respiratory gas exchange analysis was performed using a metabolic cart (CPX/D System, Medical Graphics Corp., St. Paul, MN, U.S.A.). Peak exercise oxygen consumption was Eur Heart J, Vol. 22, issue 10, May 2001 defined as the average VO2 during the last minute of exercise. Patient characteristics are summarized in Table 1. Radionuclide ventriculography All study subjects underwent gated equilibrium radionuclide angiocardiography at rest and during the last 5 min of a 15-min peripheral intravenous infusion of dobutamine (Dobutrex, Eli Lilly & Co., Indianapolis, IN, U.S.A.) at 10 g . kg 1 min 1. Right and left ventricular ejection fractions were measured after modified in vivo red blood cell labelling (25– 30 mCi Technetium-99m pertechnetate) according to standardized techniques[30]. Data were acquired in electrocardiographic-synchronized frame mode (16 frames/RR cycle) in 6464 computer matrix. Left ventricular ejection fraction was computed from the left anterior oblique image using validated and standardized software[31]. A varying left ventricular region of interest and a cycle-dependent background region were used. The computer software automatically determines left ventricular edges and background, but also allows for operator interaction as may be necessary in patients with intense radiotracer accumulation adjacent to the left ventricle. Right ventricular ejection fraction was determined using the ECG-gated first pass method[32]. Left and right ventricular ejection fractions were calculated as end-diastolic counts minus end-systolic counts, divided by end-diastolic counts. Using this software the lower limit of normal left ventricular ejection fraction is 0·50 and right ventricular ejection fraction 0·40. Left ventricular end-diastolic volume was determined using the Massardo count ratio method, by which normal patients have a left ventricular end-diastolic volume ranging from 100 to 150 ml[33]. It was indexed to the body surface area. Study end-points and data collection The study end-point was prospectively defined as death from any cause prior to cardiac transplantation. Study subjects were followed at the clinic every 3–4 months. Decision regarding candidacy for cardiac transplantation was made on the basis of clinical stability and exercise limitation. Follow-up data were obtained for all study subjects from clinic records and the computerized database. Sudden death was defined as unexpected death outside the hospital without preceding symptoms. Statistical analysis Data were expressed as meanstandard deviation. Student’s t-test was used for comparison of continuous variables, and Fisher’s exact probability test was used for comparison of categorical variables. Probabilities of Predicting survival of HF in severe non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy Table 1 851 Baseline patient characteristics Characteristic Age Sex (M/F) Duration of HF† (years) Functional class I II III IV Medications Loop diuretics ACEI/ARB Digoxin Aldactone Beta-blocker Amiodarone LVEF LVEF RVEF LVEDVI (ml . m 2) mVO2 (ml . kg 1 min 1) All patients n=62 Survivors* n=45 Non-survivors n=12 4811 32% 2·6 2·60·6 2 21 37 2 4811 33% 1·3 2·50·6 2 19 24 0 4511 42% 3·5 3·00·4 0 1 10 1 98% 95% 90% 19% 10% 5% 0·200·06 0·090·06 0·430·11 19759 196 98% 96% 87% 16% 11% 4% 0·200·05 0·090·06 0·450·10 19460 206 100% 100% 100% 42% 0 0 0·170·07 0·050·05 0·350·11 20660 172 P 0·01 ns 0·04 0·03 ns ns *Without transplantation. †Median. HF=heart failure; ACEI=angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor; ARB=angiotensin receptor blocker; LVEF=left ventricular ejection fraction; LVEF=mean dobutamine-induced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction; RVEF=right ventricular ejection fraction; LVDVI=left ventricular end-diastolic volume index; mVO2 =peak exercise oxygen consumption. survival were determined using product-limit (Kaplan– Meier) analysis. Cardiac transplantation was a censored event. Log-rank analysis was used for comparison of survival curves. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between clinical and ventriculographic characteristics. Two-sided P value <0·05 was considered statistically significant. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine which variables were predictive of death. The following variables were included in the analysis: age, gender, duration of chronic heart failure, functional class, resting left and right ventricular ejection fractions, left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, mVO2, and the dobutamine-induced increase in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Multivariate analysis was performed using both logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards methods. In the latter, the best model was achieved using a backward elimination procedure with a significance level of <0·05. Data were again censored for patients alive at the end of the study and for patients who had undergone cardiac transplantation during the study period. All analyses were performed using PC-SAS 6.12 (SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC, U.S.A.). Results Ventriculographic findings Mean resting left ventricular ejection fraction was 0·200·06 (median 0·19, range 0·05 to 0·30) and mean dobutamine-induced increase of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 0·090·06 (median 0·08, range 0·03 to 0·26). The distribution of LVEF is shown in Fig. 1. The linear correlation between LVEF and left ventricular ejection fraction (r=0·5, P<0·0001), and between LVEF and mVO2 (r=0·3, P=0·03) was weak (Fig. 2). The linear correlation between LVEF and other variables was also weak: right ventricular ejection fraction (r=0·3, P 0·04), left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (r= 0·3, P=0·05), and duration of heart failure (r= 0·03, P=0·01). Survival and predictors of death Mean follow-up was 2515 months, during which there were 12 deaths and five transplantations. No patients were lost to follow-up. Patients were divided into two groups based on median LVEF. The transplant-free survival was better in the group with higher LVEF at 1 year (97% vs 74% P=0·02), 2 years (97% vs 64%, P=0·002), and at 3 years (97% vs 56%, P<0·001) (Fig. 3 and Table 2). Patients with higher inotropic response had shorter duration of heart failure, better functional capacity, higher left and right ventricular ejection fractions, and smaller left ventricular size. There was no significant difference between the two groups with regard to mVO2 (Table 2). Both LVEF and right ventricular ejection fraction were higher in the surviving group, but there was no Eur Heart J, Vol. 22, issue 10, May 2001 852 T. M. Ramahi et al. 30 0·30 (a) r = 0·5 25 0·25 20 ∆LVEF 0·20 0·15 15 10 0·10 5 0·05 0 0·00 –5 0 5 10 15 20 LVEF –0·05 (b) Figure 1 Distribution of LVEF for 62 patients with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy. Discussion This study shows that dobutamine-induced increase in left ventricular ejection fraction is a strong independent Eur Heart J, Vol. 22, issue 10, May 2001 30 35 30 Number of patients r = 0·3 25 20 ∆LVEF significant difference in left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, and mVO2 between non-transplanted survivors and non-survivors (Table 1). The difference in LVEF between survivors and non-survivors was most pronounced in the group of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction lower than the median (LVEF 0·070·04 vs 0·030·02 P=0·008). By univariate analysis, the following variables were correlated to mortality at 1 year, 3 years, and for the entire study duration: LVEF, functional class, right ventricular ejection fraction, and left ventricular ejection fraction (Table 3). In the logistic regression multivariate analysis model, only LVEF was predictive of both 1 and 3-year transplant-free survival (RR=0·09, 95% CI=0·01–0·79, P=0·03, and RR=0·03, 95% CI=0·002–0·42, P=0·009, respectively) (Table 3A). Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, the following four variables were related to mortality: LVEF, functional class, right ventricular ejection fraction, and left ventricular ejection fraction. In the backward elimination model only LVEF was an independent predictor of overall transplant-free survival (RR=0·13, 95% CI=0·03–0·058, P=0·008) (Table 3B). Of the 12 patients who died prior to transplantation, six patients died suddenly and six died of progressive heart failure. The latter group tended to have lower LVEF (0·030·02 vs 0·080·06, P=0·08) with both left ventricular ejection fraction and LVEF below the median. 25 15 10 5 0 –5 5 10 15 20 mVO2 25 30 35 Figure 2 Correlation between LVEF and left ventricular ejection fraction, and between LVEF and mVO2. predictor of survival of patients with severe nonischaemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Patients with LVEF >0·08 had excellent 1-year and overall survival probabilities. The prognostic value of LVEF is independent of left ventricular ejection fraction and mVO2, the two most commonly utilized predictors of mortality. It was apparent at 1 year, and as such it provides additional prognostic information that might help determine the appropriate time of listing for cardiac transplantation, especially in patients with severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction. Higher response to dobutamine identifies healthier patients, characterized by better functional capacity, shorter duration of chronic heart failure, higher left and right ventricular ejection fractions, and smaller Predicting survival of HF in severe non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy 1·0 ∆LVEF ≥ 0·08 0·9 0·8 Surviving 0·7 0·6 ∆LVEF < 0·08 0·5 0·4 0·3 0·2 0·1 0 5 10 15 20 Interval 25 30 35 Figure 3 Cumulative transplant-free survival based on LVEF. Group 1, LVEF d0·08, n=34; group 2, LVEF <0·08, n=28; P<0·008. ventricles (Table 2). Non-survivors had significantly lower inotropic reserve (Table 1), particularly in the group of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction below the median value (LVEF 0·030·02 vs 0·070·04, P=0·008). Furthermore, patients who died suddenly tended to have higher inotropic reserve (LVEF 0·080·06 vs 0·030·02, P=0·08), whereas all 853 patients who died of progressive heart failure had low left ventricular ejection fraction and low LVEF. This suggests that low inotropic reserve might be a strong predictor of death from progressive pump failure especially in patients with very low left ventricular ejection fraction. The absence of strong linear correlation between LVEF and resting left ventricular ejection fraction and between LVEF and mVO2 supports an independent and additive prognostic role for inotropic reserve. The lack of a strong correlation with exercise capacity is probably due to the non-cardiac limitations to maximal exercise. Adrenergic inotropic reserve, as defined in this study, is a measure of myocardial contractile response to circulating catecholamines, which in some ways simulates the effect of exercise on cardiac function. It might bridge the prognostic discrepancy between resting left ventricular ejection fraction and mVO2, two weakly inter-correlated prognostic tests. The addition of LVEF to a prognostic model incorporating left ventricular ejection fraction and mVO2 might therefore further refine the ability to predict the survival of severe non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Previous studies The results of this study are in agreement with earlier studies that suggested a prognostic role for the increase in peak ventricular power and peak positive left ventricular dp/dt in response to dobutamine infusion[20,21]. Table 2 Baseline clinical and ventriculographic characteristics of patients with low vs high response to dobutamine Number Age (years) Females Functional class* Duration of CHF† (years) LVEF LVEF RVEF LVEDVI (ml . m 2) mVO2 (ml . kg 1 . min 1) Medications Loop diuretics ACEI/ARB Digoxin Aldactone Beta-blocker Amiodarone Survival 1 year 2 year 3 year LVEF <0·08 LVEF d0·08 28 4811 21% 2·90·5 3·5 0·180·06 0·040·03 0·360·11 21551 186 34 4811 41% 2·40·6 1·3 0·210·05 0·120·05 0·480·09 18261 206 0·04 <0·001 <0·001 0·03 ns 100% 93% 93% 25% 11% 4% 97% 97% 88% 15% 9% 6% ns ns ns ns ns ns 74% 64% 56% 97% 97% 97% 0·02 0·002 <0·001 P value ns ns <0·001 *NYHA classification. †Median. For explanation of abbreviations see Table 1. Eur Heart J, Vol. 22, issue 10, May 2001 854 T. M. Ramahi et al. Table 3A Univariate and multivariate predictors of death by logistic regression 1 year RR* Univariate LVEF FC RVEF LVEF LVEDVI mVO2 Duration of CHF Gender Age Multivariate LVEF 0·09 11·1 0·11 0·87 1·00 0·89 1·00 1·5 1·0 3 years CI† P RR* CI† P (0·01–0·79) (1·25–97·8) (0·01–0·92) (0·75–1·01) (0·99–1·02) (0·75–1·06) (0·98–1·02) (0·28–8·2) (0·90–1·02) 0·03 0·03 0·04 0·06 ns 0·19 ns ns ns 0·56 11·5 0·07 0·87 1·0 0·90 1·0 0·5 0·96 (0·01–0·46) (1·5–91·5) (0·01–0·54) (0·76–0·99) (1·00–1·02) (0·77–1·04) (1·0–1·03) (0·13–1·9) (0·91–1·02) 0·008 0·02 0·01 0·04 ns 0·16 ns ns ns 0·03 0·03 (0·002–0·4) 0·009 0·09 (0·01–0·79) *Relative risk. †95% confidence interval. For explanation of abbreviations see Table 1. Table 3B Predictors of death by proportional hazards regression LVEF‡ FC RVEF LVEF LVEDVI mVO2 Duration of CHF Gender Age RR* CI† P 0·13 5·7 0·15 0·88 1·0 0·89 1·0 0·6 0·98 (0·03–0·58) (1·5–21·9) (0·03–0·70) (0·79–0·99) (0·99–1·01) (0·79–1·02) (0·99–1·02) (0·18–1·98) (0·93–1·03) 0·008 0·01 0·02 0·03 ns 0·08 ns ns ns *Adjusted relative risk. †95% confidence interval. ‡The only independent predictor in best model. For explanation of abbreviations see Table 1. They are also consistent with those of a recent echocardiographic study that suggested a prognostic role for a dobutamine-induced decrease in the left ventricular end systolic volume index in non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy patients[34]. Neither this study nor previous studies measured true myocardial contractile reserve, an entity that is difficult to define. Instead, they measured the contractile response to the stimulation of the myocardial adrenergic receptors, a parameter that should perhaps be more precisely defined as adrenergic inotropic reserve. It provides valuable prognostic information even if it were not a true measure of myocardial contractile reserve. Unlike earlier studies, this study examined a well-defined cohort with chronic stable heart failure and severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the absence of coronary artery disease. Previous studies examined patients with acute and chronic heart failure of ischaemic and non-ischaemic causes, utilizing intracoronary dobutamine infusion and invasively obtained measures of contractile response[20,21]. Although intracoronary infusion of dobutamine is a more precise Eur Heart J, Vol. 22, issue 10, May 2001 method for the assessment of inotropic reserve (it minimizes peripheral effects of dobutamine on cardiac loading), intravenous dobutamine infusion is less invasive, safer, and clinically practicable. The dose of dobutamine used in this study was chosen based on previous experience. It was intended to maximize the inotropic response while minimizing the chronotropic response, the risk of arrhythmia, and the peripheral effects of dobutamine. Infusion duration of 10 min prior to repeat imaging allows for the attainment of steady state. Unlike previous studies, the use of gated equilibrium radionuclide ventriculography provides a consistent and reproducible measurement of the left ventricular ejection fraction. Finally, this is the first study to examine transplant-free survival as the endpoint. Exercise capacity In contrast to previous studies, mVO2 was not an independent predictor of death in this cohort. This may be due in part to non-cardiac limitations to exercise. Another reason is the use of mVO2 as a criterion for selecting patients for cardiac transplantation, an event that was censored in the survival analysis, thereby removing patients with low mVO2. Although the study subjects had severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction (mean left ventricular ejection fraction=0·20) and a first year mortality of 14%, their mean mVO2, obtained with treadmill exercise, was higher than that reported for comparable patients in other series. This is a consistent finding for optimally treated patients in our laboratory. Beta-blocker therapy Only six of the study subjects were on beta-blocker therapy at the start of the study. They were equally distributed, 11% of the low augmentation group and 9% Predicting survival of HF in severe non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy of the high augmentation group (Tables 1 and 2). As such, use of beta-blockade at baseline cannot be considered a confounder since it applied to the two groups equally. Although it might theoretically complicate the interpretation of the results, exclusion of these six patients from the analysis provides similar results. These patients might have had a blunted LVEF response to dobutamine (median LVEF=7, lower than that of the entire cohort), yet none of them died during follow-up. This probably diminished the predictive value of LVEF noted in this study. Half of the study subjects were started on betablockers during the follow-up period. The criteria used for initiation of beta-blockers were purely clinical, based on stability, functional class, and tolerability. As expected, patients with milder disease were more frequently treated with beta-blockers. These patients tended to have a higher baseline left ventricular ejection fraction, right ventricular ejection fraction, mVO2, and lower functional class. As shown in this study, these healthier patients also tend to have higher baseline LVEF (Table 2). This explains why use of betablockers tended to be higher in the high augmentation group (58%, n=34 vs 39%, n=28, P=0·20). Since these healthier patients have better survival and since betablocker therapy improves survival, it is not therefore surprising that surviving patients had higher use of beta-blockers (60%, n=45 vs 25%, n=12, P=0·07). This raises the question of whether there is an interaction between higher augmentation and use of beta-blockers. Namely whether higher augmentation also predicts the tolerability and survival benefit of beta-blockers. Due to the relatively small sample size, it would be difficult to control for this possible modifying effect of beta-blocker therapy. Nevertheless, whether use of beta-blockers is a modifier, it still does not detract from the ability of baseline dobutamine-induced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction to predict the probability of death, regardless of what therapy is used thereafter. The increasing treatment of chronic heart failure patients with beta-blockers, however, might diminish the prognostic role of inotropic reserve assessment. For betablocker treated patients, assessment of inotropic reserve with phosphodiesterase inhibitors might provide additional prognostic information. Patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy This study aimed to examine the prognostic value of adrenergic inotropic reserve. The exclusion of patients with coronary artery disease eliminated the complicating effect of myocardial ischaemia and prior infarction. The concept probably applies to patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy. The issue would be complicated, however, by the presence and extent of coronary artery disease and old myocardial infarction. The viable dysfunctional myocardium has the same down-regulation of adrenergic receptors and variably diminished inotropic reserve. The response of the entire ventricle to 855 adrenergic agents, however, depends on the extent of infarcted myocardium and the presence of haemodynamically important coronary artery disease. If there is extensive ischaemic burden, adrenergic stimulation might increase oxygen demand and worsen ischaemia. This might blunt the contractile response or even diminish the ejection fraction, rendering the assessment of inotropic reserve imprecise. It might still, nevertheless, be of prognostic value, reflecting the ischaemic and infarct burdens in addition to inotropic reserve[19,35,36]. Conclusions In severe non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy, dobutamine-induced augmentation of left ventricular ejection fraction is a strong predictor of mortality, independent of left and right ventricular ejection fractions and exercise capacity. Its prognostic value is strongest in the very low left ventricular ejection fraction population and is apparent at 1 year. It might therefore be helpful in determining the appropriate timing of listing for cardiac transplantation. References [1] Dec GW, Fuster V. Idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. N Engl J Med 1994; 331: 1564–75. [2] Keogh AM, Freund J, Baron DW, Hickie JB. Timing of cardiac transplantation in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Am J Cardiol 1988; 61: 418–22. [3] Unverferth D, Magorien R, Moeschberger M, Baker P, Fetters J, Leier C. Factors influencing the one-year mortality of dilated cardiomyopathy. Am J Cardiol 1984; 54: 147–52. [4] Diaz R, Obasohan A, Oakley C. Prediction of outcome in dilated cardiomyopathy. 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