Download Carbon Is Building Up in Atmosphere Faster Than Predicted

Carbon Is Building Up in Atmosphere Faster Than Predicted
By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
September 26, 2008
James Connaughton of the White
House Council on Environmental
Quality said the White House has
moved the world closer to
greenhouse gas cuts.
James Connaughton of the White
House Council on Environmental
Quality said the White House has
moved the world closer to
greenhouse gas cuts. (By Rich
Lipski -- The Washington Post)
The rise in global carbon dioxide
emissions last year outpaced international researchers' most dire projections, according to
figures being released today, as human-generated greenhouse gases continued to build up
in the atmosphere despite international agreements and national policies aimed at curbing
climate change.
In 2007, carbon released from burning fossil fuels and producing cement increased 2.9
percent over that released in 2006, to a total of 8.47 gigatons, or billions of metric tons,
according to the Australia-based Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of
scientists that tracks emissions. This output is at the very high end of scenarios outlined
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and could translate into a
global temperature rise of more than 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century,
according to the panel's estimates.
"In a sense, it's a reality check," said Corinne Le Quéré, a professor at the School of
Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia and a researcher with the British
Antarctic Survey. "This is an extremely large number. The emissions are increasing at a
rate that's faster than what the IPCC has used."
The new statistics also underscore the growing contribution to the world's "carbon
budget" from rapidly industrializing countries such as China, India and Brazil.
Developing nations have roughly doubled their carbon output in less than two decades
and now account for slightly more than half of total emissions, according to the new
figures, up from about a third in 1990. By contrast, total carbon emissions from
industrialized nations are only slightly higher than in 1990.
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"What's happening is the major developed countries' plans are converging for emissions
growth that will stop and be able to come down significantly," said James L.
Connaughton, who chairs the White House Council on Environmental Quality. "But that's
being completely overtaken now by the increasing greenhouse gas emissions in
developing counties. It underscores the need for a broader and more aggressive effort by
the major economies to come together."
It is unclear how much industrialized countries will be able to reduce their carbon output
in the years to come, regardless of whether developing nations seek to restrain their
greenhouse gas emissions. The federal government predicts that U.S. fossil fuel
consumption will increase, not decrease. Japan, Canada and several other countries that
committed to reducing their carbon emissions under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol have fallen
far behind in meeting their targets.
Moreover, new scientific research suggests Earth is already destined for a greater
worldwide temperature rise than previously predicted. Last month, two scientists from
the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the University of California at San Diego
published research showing that even if humans stopped generating greenhouse gases
immediately, the world's average temperature would "most likely" increase by 4.3
degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. Writing in the journal Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, they based their calculations on the fact that new airquality measures worldwide are reducing the amount of fine particles, or aerosols, in the
atmosphere and diminishing their cooling effect.
The IPCC has warned that an increase of between 3.2 and 9.7 degrees Fahrenheit could
trigger massive environmental changes, including major melting of the Greenland ice
sheet, the Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers and summer sea ice in the Arctic. The prediction
that current emissions put the planet on track for a temperature rise of more than 11
degrees Fahrenheit, Le Quéré said, means the world could face a dangerous rise in sea
level as well as other drastic changes.
Richard Moss, vice president and managing director for climate change at the World
Wildlife Fund, said the new carbon figures and research show that "we're already locked
into more warming than we thought."
"We should be worried, really worried," Moss said. "This is happening in the context of
trying to reduce emissions."
The new data also show that forests and oceans, which naturally take up much of the
carbon dioxide humans emit, are having less impact. These "natural sinks" have absorbed
54 percent of carbon dioxide emissions since 2000, a drop of 3 percent compared with the
period between 1959 and 2000.
Connaughton argued that the Bush administration's "major economies" meetings, a series
of talks among both developed and rapidly industrializing nations, have moved the world
closer toward achieving significant cuts in greenhouse gases because the group is
developing a common measurement system for emissions and is exploring how different
industrial sectors can commit to worldwide reductions.
"We are unquestionably moving toward each other," he said of the industrialized and
developing countries, "but there's a ways to go."
But Moss, who characterized the latest round of negotiations as "a lot of talk but not
much action," said the administration cannot expect emerging economies to constrain
their carbon emissions when the United States has yet to adopt binding targets for cutting
its greenhouse gases. He noted that since 1990, the United States has released about 30
gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere, compared with China's seven gigatons and India's
one.
"We really do have to start showing some leadership and start doing some changes
ourselves," he said. "If we did that, China and India, which are developing rapidly, would
be willing to come along."