Download WSB 8/5/1 Task Group Climate page 1 Agenda Item: 5 Subject

Wadden Sea Board
WSB 8
26-27 June 2013
Copenhagen
__________________________________________________________________________
Agenda Item:
5
Subject:
Report TG-C
Document No.
WSB 8/5/1
Date:
31 May 2013
Submitted by:
CWSS
__________________________________________________________________________
Attached is the progress report of the Task Group Climate, including a consolidated version of
the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, amended on the basis of comments provided by
WSB-7.
Proposal
The meeting is proposed to note the progress report and to adopt the Climate
Adaptation Strategy
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Task Group Climate
Progress Report
The Task Group Climate (TG-C) has held one meeting since the WSB-7 meeting.
TG-C 9 (15-16 May 2013) prepared a final draft of the Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy on the basis of the discussion in WSB-7. TG-C 9 also discussed spatial
planning case studies at a workshop held 16 May 2013.
TG-C 9 furthermore discussed progress made in the trilateral sediment study.
On the basis of the outcome of the discussions, TG-C 9 prepared draft text proposals
for the Ministerial Council Declaration and the Policy Assessment Report.
These proposals were submitted to the ad-hoc working group MCD.
Below, the finalisation of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, the outcome of
the spatial planning workshop and the trilateral sediment study are presented in more
detail.
1. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
The first draft of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy was presented at WSB-7
by members of TG-C. WSB-7 made several suggestions for improving the draft. The
final draft version, elaborated by TG-C 9 and attached as Annex to this document
contains the following main changes:
 Aims have been added concerning the overall objective of climate change
adaptation in the Wadden Sea, the specific aim of the Strategy and the aim of
trilateral cooperation with respect to implementing the Strategy.
 The delimitation of the area covered by the Strategy has been specified in
Aim number 2.
 The aspect of ensuring the safety of the inhabitants in the Wadden sea region
has been emphasised.
 The section “Implementation” has been specified with a focus on priority
issues for trilateral cooperation. It concerns those issues for which trilateral
cooperation provides the highest added value.
2. Spatial Planning
At a workshop, four spatial planning study cases from different sites in the Wadden
Sea region were discussed. It concerned cases with different levels of complexity
and integration. The evaluation of the four cases made very clear that spatial
planning is the main instrument for integrating various sectoral interests, which is
particularly relevant when dealing with impacts of climate change in a long-term
perspective. It became in this respect also very clear that early involvement of
stakeholders is a prerequisite for long-term planning and that this early involvement
should particularly be done at the local and regional level.
However, it was concluded that, generally, the need for taking account of climate
change impact in local and regional planning, is not yet sufficiently recognised at the
local and regional levels of administration and government.
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3. Trilateral sediment study
The trilateral sediment project has started its first phase in 2012 with institutes from
the Netherlands, Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark. The project aims at evaluating
impacts of sea level rise on sedimentation in different parts of the Wadden Sea, for
different sea level rise scenarios, amongst others as a basis for estimating te need
for and the impacts of sand suppletion. So far, common state of the art reports on
morphology and modelling in the Wadden Sea have been established and common
sets of scenarios for sea level rise (tidal water levels) and storminess agreed upon.
The advantages of trilateral cooperation in this study have already in an early stage
become evident because
 without cooperation and the exchange of information, it is impossible to
achieve a complete overview as well as disposability of data and generated
knowledge;
 trilateral cooperation secures an optimal use of available human expertise;
 products that are established in trilateral cooperation will automatically be
disseminated in a trilateral context, thereby optimizing its degree of attention
in the Wadden Sea region as well as its cost-benefit ratio (avoiding double
work).
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ANNEX
TRILATERAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
The Wadden Sea is an exceptional coastal ecosystem of outstanding universal
value. The Guiding Principle of the trilateral Governmental cooperation on the
protection of the Wadden Sea is to achieve a natural and sustainable ecosystem in
which natural processes proceed in an undisturbed way (2010 Joint Declaration).
The principle aims at:
 maintenance of the natural structures and functions,
 conservation of the characteristic biodiversity,
 maintenance of the scenic qualities of the landscape.
Recognizing the fundamental nature of the trilateral Guiding Principle of the
cooperation, the participating Governments have adopted in the 2010 Joint
Declaration a common vision for the Wadden Sea:
The Wadden Sea is a unique, natural and dynamic ecosystem with
characteristic biodiversity, vast open landscapes and rich cultural
heritage, enjoyed by all, and delivering benefits in a sustainable way to
present and future generations.
Climate change and enhanced sea level rise may seriously impact structure,
functions and the characteristic biodiversity of the Wadden Sea ecosystem as well as
the safety of the inhabitants in the region.
The trilateral cooperation therefor aims at, achieving resilience1 to climate change.
Addressing the impacts of climate change as a cross cutting theme within an overall
situation of high uncertainty, is a major challenge for the trilateral cooperation.
THE AIMS
1. The overall aim of climate change adaptation in the Wadden Sea region is to
safeguard and promote the qualities and the integrity of the area as a natural
and sustainable ecosystem whilst ensuring the safety of the inhabitants and
1
The terms resilience and adaptability have a similar meaning. The IPCC has defined resilience as
follows:
”The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic
structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to
stress and change. “ (from: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report;
Annex II; Glossary)
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visitors, as well as the cultural heritage and landscape assets and sustainable
human use
2. The aim of the climate adaptation strategy is enhance and promote policies
and measures necessary for increasing the resilience of the Wadden Sea to
impacts of climate change. The strategy focuses on the Wadden Sea Area
and the adjacent offshore and mainland areas as far as directly relevant for
the implementation of the seven basic elements of the strategy
3. The aim of trilateral cooperation in implementing the strategy is to achieve
optimal added value by focusing on activities with the highest trilateral
relevance, in particular the exchange of knowledge and best practice, the
exchange of experts, as well as performing trilaterally coordinated studies and
pilot projects covering sites over the whole Wadden Sea.
THE CHALLENGE
The most important aspects of climate change in the Wadden Sea region are:
1. Sea level rise and storm surges: projections on global mean sea level rise
vary among 0.2 and 1.4 m for the period 1990 – 2100. So far, no indication of
accelerated sea level rise could be observed in the Wadden Sea. Studies on
the future development of storm surges estimate a small to insignificant
increase towards the end of this century. Ground water level will rise as a
result of sea level rise
2. Precipitation patterns. Due to projected lower summer and higher winter
precipitation, fresh water discharge into the Wadden Sea may become more
fluctuating with larger extremes. Fresh water availability in the region,
especially on the islands (in case they are self-sustainable) may become a
critical issue.
3. Temperature: projections indicate that mean annual temperatures in the
Wadden Sea region may increase among 2.0 and 4.7 degrees Celsius until
the end of this century. Water temperatures in the Wadden Sea are already
increasing and are expected to increase further.
Due to the high uncertainty regarding the magnitude and direction of the above
climate change aspects, as well as the complexity of geophysical and biological
interactions, projections on the direction and magnitude of these aspects still
constitute a major scientific challenge. Still, they are highly likely to negatively
interfere with the aims for the protection of the Wadden Sea.
Some impacts can, at least qualitatively, already be addressed. As long-term impact,
it is expected that not enough sediment will be available to balance enhanced sea
level rise. As a result, the Wadden Sea may start to “drown”, resulting in changing
structures and functions, flora and fauna as well as the landscape (i.e., from an
intertidal to a lagoon ecosystem). Such and other impacts may occur after a certain
threshold value, the so-called tipping point, has been exceeded, after which the
system is no longer resilient.
Furthermore, enhanced sea level rise will induce/accelerate coastal retreat of the
barrier islands, thereby reducing the extension of the back-barrier bays. Without
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proper management, higher storm surge water levels will impair flood safety of the
inhabitants. Finally, increasing water and air temperatures will cause geographical
shifts of species and habitats.
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND PRINCIPLES
Under the precondition that the safety of the inhabitants is guaranteed, resilience to
climate change in the Wadden Sea region may best be achieved by implementing an
adaptation strategy that consists of seven basic elements: Natural dynamics,
Interconnectivity, Integration, Flexibility, Long-term approach, Site specific approach
and Participation. For each element, priorities for implementation are listed that will
contribute to a Wadden Sea region that is more resilient to climate change.
1. Natural dynamics
The Wadden Sea ecosystem is more than 5,000 years old and has already
endured periods of stronger sea level rise and more frequent and severe storms.
In a natural state, sediment redistribution maintains a dynamic equilibrium that
makes the Wadden Sea quite resilient to external changes. Thus, allowing and
restoring natural dynamics can increase the resilience of the Wadden Sea to
climate change.
Priorities for natural dynamics
 Evaluate the effects of different measures (e.g. for coastal risk management)
on natural dynamics.
 Promote and support management measures that consider, allow and/or
support natural dynamics.
 Limit measures that induce negative sediment budgets in the Wadden Sea.
 Evaluate legislation and suggest improvements in relation to this objective.
2. Interconnectivity of habitats
The trilateral Wadden Sea forms a central element within the European Green
Infrastructure (COM/2013/0249 final along the south-western North-Sea Coast. It
provides the necessary interconnectivity of habitats to allow species and
communities to follow shifts of climatic conditions in easterly and northerly
directions. Thereby preventing species extinction and securing adaptation of
characteristic biodiversity far beyond its original borders.
Priorities for interconnectivity of habitats:
 Secure and enhance the interconnectivity of habitats, both marine and
terrestrial.
 Provide, as much as possible, space for the restoration of habitats lost due to
climate change.
 Exchange and communicate practical field experience with restoration
measures.
3. Integration
Climate change may have an impact on many different Wadden Sea ecosystem
features and elements, human activities and interests, at various spatial and
temporal scales. It is important to recognize that climate change is a cross cutting
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theme. Therefore, dealing with impacts of climate change requires an integrative
approach across borders, disciplines, sectors and administrative layers (ICZM).
It concerns, first of all, the sectors and disciplines dealing with coastal risk
management, nature protection and spatial planning. For measures that may have
an impact across national borders, for example large-scale sand extraction and
suppletion, trilateral cooperation and coordination is a necessity.
Priorities for integration
 Promote and support trilateral pilot projects on integration of disciplines and
sectors, including administrative layers.
 Promote and support integrative measures for increasing the Wadden Sea
resilience.
 Continue and further strengthen TG-C activities, including exchange of best
practices.
4. Flexibility
There is considerable uncertainty about climate change and its impacts regarding
direction, timing and magnitude (e.g. plausible sea level rise projections vary
among 0.2 and 1.4 m). These uncertainties require a flexible approach with regard
to Wadden Sea policy and management, as well as close contacts with the
scientific community. So called “no-regret-measures” may contribute to a flexible
approach that considers uncertainty. An adaptive management consisting of such
measures should be beneficial even if the expected development does not
happen, for instance if sea level rise turns out lower (or higher) than anticipated.
‘No regret’ should also be applied concerning the natural values and the integrity
of the Wadden Sea. Further, flexible approaches contribute to the ability to
adequately and timely respond to new information regarding actual and projected
changes in drivers and impacts (adaptive management). Finally, flexibility means
that measures should be adaptable to new circumstances. It is important to
improve our insight in possible ‘tipping points in time’ that require principle
choices, and that may influence our opinion on no-regret measures that we plan
on the short term.
Priorities for flexibility
 Develop policy guidance for adaptive management under different climate
change scenarios, focused on each tidal basin of the Wadden Sea.
 Optimize and secure the Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Program
(TMAP) for rapid feedback regarding climate change issues.
 Support trilateral scientific and planning cooperation on climate change
adaptation (drivers, impacts and no-regret measures) as part of adapative
management.
 Evaluate to what extent legislation may limit climate change management.
5. Long-term approach
Climate change and accelerated sea level rise are gradual processes that need a
long-term management approach. Further, adaptation measures include, amongst
others, infrastructural works and ecosystem engineering both of which generally
require long-term planning and have long life-spans. Finally, adaptation measures
may interfere with traditional coastal defense or water management policies and
thus raise public concern. Changing traditional views and feelings probably
requires at least one generation of communication and dialogue.
Long-term policy and strategy horizons should not lead to static approaches. With
reference to flexibility (see above), the chosen instruments should be able to
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adapt to new knowledge and diverging natural and cultural developments. Hence,
periodic updating should be implemented with the possibility of adapting policies
and strategies to new knowledge and developments.
Priorities for a long-term approach
 Promote the inclusion of climate change adaptation management as a central
issue in long-term spatial planning and relevant policies and legislation
 Investigate and promote the implementation of so called bench marks for action
with respect to future developments in long-term planning.
 Support the option to promptly enhance long-term policies as appropriate.
 Provide advice on the implementation of the Wadden Sea Plan regarding these
priorities.
6. Site specific approach
Both the challenges of climate change and optimal adaptation may differ
throughout the Wadden Sea region. For example, a northward shift in storm wind
direction may lead to higher storm surges in the Netherlands and Lower-Saxony,
but to lower storm water levels in Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein. Further
differences may result from locally varying historical perspectives and cultural
heritage. In order to secure local resilience, on the basis of a common knowledge
base, site-specific “tailor-made” solutions should be developed.
Priorities for local adaptation
 Promote, support the development of a common knowledge base that can be
drawn upon locally and communicate these solutions broadly for eventual
application at other sites.
 Promote and support the development of site-specific “tailor-made” solutions,
Evaluate site-specific solutions from the trilateral perspective of the Strategy
7. Participatory approach
Participation of stakeholders by providing information and securing active
involvement is one prerequisite for the successful introduction of adaptation
measures. This is due to the sensitivity of issues dealing with the safety and wellbeing of the inhabitants of the Wadden Sea region. This sensitivity, combined with
traditions and the need for long-term planning of adaptation measures, call for
communication and participation strategies and instruments like the Wadden Sea
Forum. Active involvement should lead to awareness for the challenges of climate
change and acceptance of adaptation measures (“common ownership”).
Priorities for participation
 Strengthen the cooperation with the Wadden Sea Forum on communication
and participation regarding climate change adaptation.
 Include climate change adaptation in the overall trilateral communication
strategy.
 Support the International Wadden Sea School in developing relevant education
material.
IMPLEMENTATION
The focus of the implementation of this Strategy will be on activities with trilateral
added value, in particular to
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Best practice
 Evaluate the effects of different measures (e.g. for coastal risk management)
on natural dynamics.
 Secure and enhance the interconnectivity of habitats, both marine and
terrestrial.
 Continue and further strengthen joint activities, including exchange of best
practices.
 Promote and support trilateral pilot projects on integration of disciplines and
sectors, including administrative layers.
 Evaluate site-specific solutions from the trilateral perspective of the Strategy.
 Promote and support the development of a common knowledge base that can
be drawn upon locally and communicate these solutions broadly for eventual
application at other sites.
Policy and management
 Support trilateral scientific and planning cooperation on climate change
adaptation (drivers, impacts and no-regret measures) as part of adapative
management.
 Promote the inclusion of climate change adaptation management as a central
issue in long-term spatial planning and relevant policies and legislation
 Investigate and promote the implementation of so-called bench marks for action
with respect to future developments in long-term planning.
 Support the option to promptly enhance long-term policies as appropriate.
 Provide advice on the implementation of the Wadden Sea Plan regarding these
priorities.
Monitoring and assessment
 Optimize and secure the Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Program (TMAP)
for rapid feedback regarding climate change issues.
Communication and education
 Exchange and communicate practical field experience with restoration
measures
 Strengthen the cooperation with the Wadden Sea Forum on communication and
participation regarding climate change adaptation
 Include climate change adaptation in the overall trilateral communication
strategy.
 Support the International Wadden Sea School in developing relevant education
material.
For the monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the Trilateral Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy, a trilateral expert group will be installed. This group will
also closely follow national developments and exchange experiences and expertise
and provide advice on climate change policies on the basis of best available
knowledge and overall risk analyses.