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The World’s Low-carbon Economy Trend and China’s Rational Choice LIU Mingyong1, 2 1. Shandong University of Technology, P.R.China, 255049 2. Northeast Normal University, P.R.China, 130024 [email protected] Abstract: Currently, global warming has become the common problems around the world. Low-carbon economy has become the economic model to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and deal with global warming. As for the development of low-carbon economy, China should evaluate the domestic economic development reality correctly and choose rational policies in conjunction with their economic development stage. In the light of foreign advanced experiences, enhance the development of low-carbon development to the national strategic level, response to greenhouse gas emissions of international responsibilities and obligations, promote the concept of low carbon and low-carbon lifestyle, and strive to create their own low-carbon economic development model. Keywords: Low-carbon economy, Economic reality, Strategies 1. Introduction Recent years, in the global context of climate warming and resource and environment deterioration, western countries vigorously promote “low-carbon revolution” with the core of energy-efficient and low emissions. Low-carbon technologies and industries marked with low power consumption, low emission and low pollution are becoming the new trend of global economic development and strategic action of many countries. 2. Low-carbon Economy is Becoming a Global Trend. 2.1 Low-carbon economy is rising worldwide. In February 2003, the British government released the “Energy White Paper” (UK Energy White Paper, 2003), in which, the British first introduced the “low-carbon economy”(Low Carbon Economy) concept, which attracted international attention. British government set up a clear goal for the low-carbon economy: the 2010 reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 20% on 1990 levels; to 2050, a low carbon economy and society should be built. ① Following the 2003 energy white paper, the British Government released “economics of climate change: Stern Report” in October 2006, which did more authority quantitative assessment of the impact of global climate change on economy.② “Stern Report” stated, at present, if the world put into the cost of GDP1% annually, which may avoid loss of 5% ~20% GDP per year in the future, so it called the global community to transform to a low carbon economy as soon as possible. In June 2007, the United Kingdom announced a climate change bill, which clear committed, 26% ~ 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to 2020, and the long-term goal by 2050, greenhouse gas emissions by 60%. In 2007, the United Nations Climate Change Conference developed a “Bali road map” for controlling greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. At the same time, developed countries, mainly Europe and America started to take a series of practical actions in the transition of low-carbon economy. A series of new concepts, such as, “low-carbon economy”, “low-carbon development”, “low-carbon technologies”, “low-carbon city” “low-carbon way of life” arise. Britain has launched a number of economic policies, such as climate change levy, climate change agreements, emissions trading scheme, carbon trust funds and promote low carbon economic development. Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Italy also levy state tax fossil fuels on the combustion of carbon dioxide. Japan, Germany and Austria 391 have also introduced energy tax and carbon tax systems. United States invested heavily in low carbon technologies research and development. The implementation of “Energy Policy Act” provides legal protection for the development of low-carbon economy. 2.2 Reducing carbon dioxide emissions has become the consensus to resolve global warming, and carbon emissions have become the new measure of the economic development mode. Scientific discovery: the over-reliance on fossil fuels is the causes of greenhouse gas (CO2) rapid rise, with the development and utilization of fossil energy, a substantial increase of carbon emissions in the Earth’s atmosphere greenhouse gas (CO2) concentration has undergone profound changes and which began to affect natural ecosystems to human survival. In 1896, The Nobel Prize owner in Chemistry, Cornelius forecast fossil fuel combustion will increase atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, causing global warming. The latest research report shows that by 2050, control the increase of carbon dioxide concentration in atmospheric twice the same as pre-industrial level can avoid the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena and ensure economic and social sustainable development.③ The global climate change was concerned by the international community. From the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” to “Kyoto Protocol”, from the “Kyoto Protocol” to the “Bali roadmap”, the international community has been trying to solve global warming, while reducing carbon dioxide emissions became global consensus to solve the issue. Ostensibly, the level of carbon emissions is the reflection of level of energy use, but in essence, the level of carbon emissions is a new measurement of human economic development mode. 3. China Should Have a Correct View on Economic Development Reality in Face of World Low-carbon Economy Trend. Ostensibly, the low-carbon economy is the result of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In essence, low-carbon economy is the economic development mode, energy consumption mode, and a reform of the way of life, which will change the modern industrial civilization which established on the basis of the fossil fuel (energy). 3.1 There is a big gap between China’s current development situation and the requirements of low carbon economy. China is undergoing the rapid development stage of industrialization and urbanization, which leads to high consumption and high emissions. Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow because of the slow adjustment of economic structure and the long-term extensive economic development model. Meanwhile, China is still in a lower place of the global division of labor, a considerable portion of the export goods are resource-intensive goods of high energy consumption and high pollution. And China also undertook a significant part of the transfer of heavy industry from developed countries. China became “the world’s manufacturing base” and directly or indirectly exported a lot of energy and generated emissions. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that in 2004, export commodities contained carbon dioxide emissions of 16 million tons, accounting for 34% of total emissions in China.④ 3.2 In the situation that international community attaches great importance to the low-carbon economy, China also has great potential advantage in the reduction of emission. China’s current energy intensity and energy efficiency is significantly lower. So there is greater scope for energy saving through the ways of restructuring, technological innovation and management improvement. Moreover, China’s emission reduction cost is relatively low. From the international point, the cost of the provisions in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is more than 30 U.S. dollars per ton of emission reduction, while China about 15 dollars. China’s large energy demand, many projects in line with emission reduction and economies of scale are conducive to international 392 carbon emissions trade and attractable for international capital of emission reduction projects to enter. At present, China Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project has reached 36.37 million tons, which is the largest volume of national CDM carbon trading. ⑤ 3.3 Low-carbon economy in China has achieved great results. As the world’s largest developing country, China is a major low carbon economy practitioner. At present, China has established the way to develop “low-carbon economy” in response to a series of global climate change efforts. As a developing country, China need not carry mandatory emission reduction obligations, but China still initiate a series of energy-saving measures to reduce emissions. In the past 15 years, the reduction of the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions of one unit of GDP is 4.9% annually, while the United States, Germany 1.7% and 2.7%. In accordance with our government’s “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the energy consumption of one unit GDP reduces by 20% in 5 years, saving 620 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to 1.5 billion tons less carbon dioxide emissions, which is the greatest reduction program of low carbon emissions worldwide. On August 27, 2009, China’s National People’s Congress voted “Low-carbon revolution” in the core of Energy efficiency and low emissions, which is the first time for the highest state organ to make the resolution of global climate change. Resolution put forward a series of specific measures to climate change, including the development of green economy, low-carbon economy and so on. 4. China Should Have Its Own Clear Understanding and A Rational Strategy Selection in the Development of Low-carbon Economy. Western developed countries are vigorously promoting the “low-carbon revolution”, which is in the core of high efficiency and low emissions and focusing on the development of “low-carbon technologies”. The global industries, energy, technologies, trade and other policies are facing a major adjustment. In this situation, China’s economy faces the obvious pressures and challenges. But for the development of low-carbon economy, China should have its own rational choice on strategies. 4.1 China’s low-carbon economy will be a long-term and systematic project, which should be gradual and form its own development mode. From actual situation, China needs to move to low- carbon economy and is also working to transition to low carbon economy. However, the low-carbon development is not immediate, but a process. As a developing economy, it is hard and long to get rid of coal energy. China’s resource endowment and development stage determine that it is absolutely not low-carbon in the short term, not a lower level of carbon emission as the least developed countries, and also not as well as developed countries, those reduce greenhouse gas emissions immediately. Productivity improvement is the basis to realize a win-win strategy, that is to say, low-carbon and economic growth. At present and a long period of time, our fossil fuels, especially coal accounts for a monopoly situation in total energy consumption, which can not be changed. High-carbon fossil fuels are consistent with current urbanization, industrialization and development needs, and finance development for high-cost carbon-free energy sources. In such case, the large use of fossil fuels, the most important is to increase energy efficiency. Without development, capital and technology, there will be no low-carbon economy. Different from developed countries, China’s low-carbon economy is not a post-industrial low-carbon development, but to explore a low-carbon development model in the process of industrialization. This requires us to learn from the successful experience of foreign countries and develop economy at the cost of any expense in the process of economic development. China’s low-carbon economy will have contents that foreign countries didn’t experience, so we need to continuously explore and innovate. For example, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries treat transport, commercial and public building and residential energy consumption as the three priority areas of a low carbon economy, but industrial 393 structure upgrading and industry energy reducing should become an integral low-carbon economy part of China’s low-carbon economy development. 4.2 China’s low-carbon economic development should adhere to the fundamental interests of sate, response to international obligations and responsibilities of China’s greenhouse gas emissions correctly. First, as the largest developing countries, China accounts for one fifth the world’s population, which industrialization, urbanization and modernization process hasn’t achieved. In half of the 21st century, economic development is the most important. Large-scale infrastructure, industrialization, urbanization, and improvement of people’s lives are the inevitable trend of social and economic development, which will make a huge demand for energy. Therefore, as a developing country, we are still in a particular stage of development and should not afford too many international obligations to reduce emissions. As a developing country, low-carbon should be relative and not be a binding factor in the development, which should be different from the developed countries. Second, as a developing country, China’s largest constraint from the “high-carbon” to “low carbon” economy is the overall scientific and technological backwardness, inadequate of low-carbon technology development and reserves. China is technology inadequate in current energy production and utilization, industrial production and other areas. Technological development capability and key equipment manufacturing are poor, industrial systems are weak. Although the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” formulates developed countries are incumbent to transfer technology to developing countries, the reality is different. In many cases, China have to buy technologies through international market, which has become an international constraint on emissions, obviously also a heavy financial burden. But in the process of world promoting climate change, China still set the global responsible image of Environmental Affairs. UN Climate Change Conference held in December 2009 in Copenhagen, although as a developing country, China is not covered by mandatory emissions reduction program, who announced the objective of Chinese government is “by 2020 carbon emissions reduction by 40 %-45% compared to 2005”, which clearly shows the commitment to cooperate with the international social responsibility. 4.3 China’s low-carbon economy should be enhanced to the level of national development strategies, and low-carbon economic development should be the key elements of sustainable development. For a long time, China’s economy mainly relies on heavy use of energy resources. The cost of this process is enormous, and the lesson is profound. The development of low-carbon economy will be a huge challenge to the traditional economic development model undoubtedly, but equally no doubt that the development of low-carbon economy provides a rare opportunity to achieve the fundamental transform of economy mode. As a large developing country, China must speed up industrialization, urbanization and modernization process, and take gradual path in line with trend of the domestic and world development. Put emphasis on low-carbon economy transformation and treat low-carbon development model as national development strategies. From the long-term and global perspective, deploy the development of low carbon economy and create conditions for transition to a low carbon economy in the adjustment of industrial structure, regional distribution, technological advances and infrastructure building. We should actively participate in international exchanges and cooperate on low-carbon energy and introduce advanced foreign concepts, technologies and capital. Promote production and consumption patterns change through the adoption of new international cooperation model, institutional innovation, advanced technologies. At the same time, actively establish policies on low-carbon development mechanism, and support the low-carbon technology innovation and application. Actively participate in the international negotiations on climate change and low carbon regulations, and strive for reasonable 394 development space; Enhance international image of responsible power through agreements on voluntary emissions reduction actions in accordance with national conditions and its actual capabilities. In addition, since industrial revolution, economic and social development relied heavily on fossil energy technologies. In the post-industrial period, many chemical industries and high-carbon technologies constantly transferred from developed countries to developing countries through international trade. If China continues to follow the conventional technologies to develop high-carbon industries which could be “locked” by carbon-intensive industry facilities when commit to obligations or restrictions of quantitative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, in the modernization process, China need plan and budget early to avoid carbon industry and consumption lock. 4.4 For the whole society, pay attention to the concept of change, advocate low-carbon awareness and low-carbon lifestyle. Low-carbon economy requires the support of a whole concept of low-carbon society. The whole community should understand what is low carbon economy, why should develop a low carbon economy, and how to develop low-carbon economy in order to promote the changes of the concept on production, lifestyle and consumption. At manufacturing level, encourage enterprises gradually transform production model from high-carbon pattern to low-carbon. Introduce low carbon business concept to minimize the carbon emissions of production. Establish clean production mechanisms for environment protection and form low-carbon consciousness. On social consumption level, vigorously promote moderate fair and green consumption, restrict blind, excessive environmental protection consumption. Norm and reduce the supplies and use of disposable products. Develop green services through social consumption pattern change. Promote low-carbon technologies development and application in the field of production. Low-carbon consumption is the guidance and impetus to low-carbon development. If consumers choose low-carbon products, technology innovation, company production, storage and transport will work for the direction of low carbon in order to improve competitiveness. Appropriate changes in consumer behavior can reduce carbon emissions, such as the adoption of sustainable transport, low carbon travel, which obviously reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Low carbon consumption is not only an idea, but also a social responsibility which all members of society should have. As a developing and a responsible country, China has the responsibility to take measures to prevent global warming. 5. Conclusion Low-carbon economy development is the inevitable choice for China to achieve peaceful and sustainable development. In a sense, the exploration on low carbon economy from theory and practice sense is the exploration of the possibility of future development of our country. Low-carbon development is not only the fundamental way to face global climate change, but also the inherent demand of sustainable development of China. 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