Download Sensitivity of Potato Yield to Climate Change

Journal of Applied Sciences Research, 6(6): 751-755, 2010
© 2010, INSInet Publication
Sensitivity of Potato Yield to Climate Change
Abdrabbo M.A.A.; A.A. Khalil; M.K.K. Hassanien and A.F. Abou-Hadid
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Ministry of
Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Egypt.
Abstract: One significant impact of climate change is the effect upon agriculture. As many evidences
indicated that some remarkable changes could happen in climate scenario, the present work is mainly
directed to discuss sensitivity of climate change upon the potato production in Egypt. The selection of
potato product is mainly dependent upon that potato represent strategic crop cultivated in Egypt. The
SUBSTOR potato model was employed to simulate physiological processes and yield of potato production.
SUBSTOR model is a mechanistic, process-oriented model for tuber yield includes crop development. The
present work introduces two possible cases of climate changes for the sake of climate crop production
relationship. The actual measurements for potato production characteristics were used in the comparison
with present and predicted. The climate change data is used from two general circulation models (CSIRO
and HadCM3) for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario during 2050. The results of the work indicated that the
potato yield decrease from 11 to 13% under climate change and the climate change data output from
HadCM3 model gave the highest value of potato yield comparing with CSIRO model. And Valor cultivar
gave the highest potato yield compared to Dezareah cultivar when the irrigation treatment taken place
under current and future climate.
Key words: Potato yield, SUBSTOR potato model, Irrigation, Climate change
compared to early ones. However, early sowing cannot
be relied upon for blight control in years with early
monsoons. Yamaguchi et al. [2 ] found that yield,
specific gravity and starch content of russet Burbank cv
and white Rose cv tubers were higher, whereas the
sugar was content lower when grown at soil
temperatures between 15 and 24 o C, than when grown
at higher temperatures. The DSSAT family of models
was used extensively to simulate potato growth and
yield [3 ] . Sepp and Tooming[4 ] show that potato
productivity is the most sensitive to changes in spring
water storage in soils, shifts in potato sowing time, and
growth of precipitation. The problem key of mankind's
response to climate change is the adaptation of
agriculture to the changed agroclimatic conditions and
resources. Tooming [5 ] recommend that plant cultivation
be established according to the principle of maximum
plant productivity. Plant cultivation in accordance with
the principle of maximum will be utilize natural
resources i.e. soil and climate not only with maximal
productivity in the existing environment but also with
maxim al efficiency. N atural plant and plant
communities are systems that have adapted to the
existing climate and all environmental condition during
a long evolutionary process. Their structure and
functions are harmonically related and well adapted to
INTRODUCTION
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of the major
crops in Egypt. The national potato crop production
does meet both the current local demand, and the
export market. The rapid growth of the country
population, the economic stress of reliance on food
imports, and the limited area for agriculture require
Egyptians to find new ways to increase agriculture
productivity in general and food crops in specific.
Potato is a major industrial crop in Egypt and is one of
the main food crops grown mainly in delta, and middle
Egypt. The total cultivated area of potato is 89
thousands Hectare, which produced about two million
Tons, and the total potato export was 296 thousand
ton/year in 2005. The winter season is considered the
main cultivated season in Egypt for exported potato
production [1 ] . The selection of high yielding,
optimization of water levels, sowing dates to improve
potato crop production under current and future climate
change have to be evaluated. The choice of the best
option can conserve the agricultural resources by
sowing dates potato crop in the best time for
sustainable agriculture in Egypt. In this connection, the
best sowing time can improve productivity. There is
evidence that foliar blight increase in later crop as
Corresponding Author: Abdrabbo M.A.A.; Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research
Center (ARC), Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Egypt.
751
J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010
were prepared on the basis of IBSNAT data set [1 1 ].
The required climatic data for El- Beheira Governorate
(latitude 31.24 and longitude 30.24) were obtained from
Central Laboratory for Agriculture Climate (CLAC),
Egypt. Soil chemical and physical properties of the
experimental area, the result of soil analysis were
tabulated in Table1. Tuber yield potato (kg/ha) were
recorded. Genetic coefficients were calculated for the
two cultivars to run the SUBSTOR-Potato model with
weather data and experimental data for Valour and
Dezareah varieties. The comparison between actual data
and predicted data was done through SUBSTORpotato model under DSSAT interface in three steps,
retrieval data (converting data to SUBSTOR- potato
model), and validation data (comparing between
predicted and observed data) and run the model
DSSAT provides validation of the crop models that
allows users to compare simulated outcomes with
observed results. Necessary files were prepared as
required. Evaluation of applying SUBSTOR- potato
model: Calculating the difference percentage between
predicted and observed data, Correlation coefficient and
paired T-test.
the climate and environmental conditions. Field crops
have been developed by human activity over a long
period of time. Accordance of plant demands with the
given climatic and environmental conditions for
agricultural crops is the most important precondition for
high productivity if climatic changes as projected by
atmospheric scientists (IPCC) [6 ] adversely affected crop
production, Egypt would have to increase its reliance
on costly food imports. The rising trend of the global
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO 2) is well
established. Estimate of future increases range from 45
% to 115 % above the pre-industrial levels (near 280
ppm) by the year 2040 [7 ] . This increase of CO 2 is
expected to induce a change in climate, which its
magnitude is still uncertain [6,8 ] . Assessments of the
impact of CO 2 induced change on agricultural
productivity are needed for both scientific and policy
making purposes. The complexity of climate – crop
production interaction makes simulation a useful and
probably, the only practical available for making the
needed assessments [9 ] . The present study aimed to
assess the impact of climate change on potato yield by
using two general circulation models (CSIRO and
HadCM3) for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario during
2050.
Future Climate Data During 2050: Climate change
scenarios for locations were assessed according to
future conditions derived from M AGICC/SCENGEN
software of the university of East angle (UK). In this
the study two GCM model (CSIRO and HadCM3) and
one scenario of climate data were used A1. The
principal of MAGICC/SCENGEN is allowing the user
to explore the consequences of a medium range of
future emissions scenarios. The user selects two such
scenarios from library of possibilities. The reason for
two scenarios is, to able to compare a no action
scenario with an action or policy scenario. Thus, in
MAGICC/SCENGEN the two emissions scenarios are
referred to as a reference scenario and policy scenario
[12 ]
. Such data generated from MAGICC- /SCENGEN
are represented in one scenario A1 these scenarios are
described by IPCC 2001as follows: The A1 scenario
describes a future world of very rapid economic
growth, global population that peaks in mid-century
and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of
new and more efficient technologies.
M ATERIALS AND M ETHODS
The experiment was carried out at El-Bosaily farm,
El-Behira Governorate, Egypt during growing seasons
of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 to study the effect of
water levels on potato yield (Solanum tuberosum L.)
Dezareah and valour cultivars. In addition, validation
predicted yield by DSSAT (SUBSTOR- Potato model)
was compared to actual data and impact of climate
change on production of potato. The treatments
comprised of four irrigation levels (60, 80, 100 and
120 % of the amount of water calculated according to
class A pan equation). Date of planting was October 15
of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007. Chemical properties of
the soil of the experiment were analyzed before
cultivation and the results are tabulated in Table (1).
The permanent wilting point (PW P) and field capacity
(FC) of the trial soil were determined according to
Israelsen and Hansen [1 0] . Plot area was 150 m2 (15 m
length x 10 m width). Plant distances were 30 cm
apart. A distance of 2 m was left between each two
irrigation treatments. Drip irrigation was used from the
first to the end of the two seasons. The total amount of
drip irrigation was applied by water flow-meter for
each treatment (EC of water irrigation 0.8 dS/m).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Crop M odel Validation: The comparison between
observed and predicted data for tuber yield (kg/ha) in
the four irrigation levels at El- Beheira Governorate is
presented in Table (2) and Figure (1). It was noticed
that the output data predicted from the SUBSTORPotato model were in harmony with the observed data
for tuber yield. Regarding the effect of different
Crop M odel Validation: Field data was used by
SUBSTOR-Potato model through DSSAT software to
simulate and predict potato yield. The experiment data
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J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010
irrigation treatment, data showed that using 100 %
irrigation level increased potato tuber yield as
compared to other irrigation levels. The lowest tuber
yield was obtained by 60 % irrigation level treatment.
The same curve was obtained from predicted model,
difference in tuber yield due to irrigation water levels
in both results from observed and predicted data, 100
% irrigation water gave the highest value for two
cultivars yield compared to the other irrigation levels
(25111, 26088 kg/ha) and (25092, 25122 kg/ha) for
observed data in the first and second season,
respectively, and (25579, 26550 kg/ha) and (25582,
25590 kg/ha) for predicted data in the first and second
season, respectively. The Valour cultivar gave the
highest potato yield (Kg/ha) compared with Dezareah
cultivar during the two seasons of 2005/2006 and
2006/2007. The difference percentage between observed
and predicated data was from -1.7 to -2.6 and from 1.8 to 2.7 % in the first and second seasons,
respectively for the Valour and Dezareah cultivar at
different irrigation levels. Value of correlation
coefficient was 0.998; this mean the same trend was
found in predicted and observed data. Paired T- test
value was not significant -0.68 and -0.66 in both years
respectively. This means no difference between
observed and predicted data. Results of the validation
experiment indicate that the SUBSTOR- Potato crop
model can be used successful to predict the potato
yield in Egypt.
Effects of Climate Change on Potato Yield: The
potential impact of climate change on potato yield was
evaluated by simulating two cultivar and irrigation
requirements level on simulated potato production with
climate change output models (CSIRO, and HadCM3)
for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario by year 2050
compared with that predicted under the current
condition 2005/2006 (Table 3). Data revealed that
potato yield for the two cultivars under climate change
conditions will be decrease under the two models.
Potato yield for CSIRO model decreased than
HadCM3. Potato yield at irrigation level 100% for the
two cultivars (Dezareah and Valour) gave the highest
value under climate change for two GCM Model
compared to the other irrigation level; the mean potato
yield will decrease from 11 to 13 % under climate
change during year 2050 for A1 scenario.
Conclusion: For the overall results, it could be
concluded that DSSAT can be used successfully to
predict potato yield in Egypt. Yield under climate
change at 2050 may will be decreased from 11 to 13%
compared to the current climate at season 2005/2006.
Irrigation level 100% gave the highest tuber yield at
difference cultivar with two climate change GCM
models. Selection of better cultivar and the suitable
irrigation level are most the important factors for
maximizing potato production.
Table 1: Soil chem ical and physical properties of the experim ent analyzed before cultivation.
Chem ical properties
EC dS/m
pH
Ca + + m eq/l
M g+ + m eq/l
N a + m eq/l
K + m eq/l
3.00
7.89
30
10
14.26
1.66
Physical properties
Sand %
Clay%
Silt%
Texture
FC %
P.W .P %
95.31
4.30
0.36
Sandy
16.77
5.65
H CO 3 m eq/l
2.5
Cl - m eq/l
12.6
Bulk density (g/cm 3)
1.44
Table 2: Com parison between observed and predicted data for tuber yield (kg/ha) at El- Beheira Governorate.
cultivar
Season
2005/2006
2006/2007
D ifference%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Irrigation Levels O bserved
Predicted
D ifference%
O bserved
Predicted
D ezareah
60%
11837
12145
-2.5
11393
11712
-2.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80%
20707
21215
-2.4
21014
21550
-2.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100%
25111
25579
-1.8
25092
25582
-1.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120%
24458
25089
-2.5
24389
25030
-2.6
M ean
20528
21007
-2.3
20472
20966
-2.4
Valour
60%
14683
15070
-2.6
14429
14780
-2.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80%
23758
24290
-2.2
23681
24250
-2.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100%
26088
26550
-1.7
25122
25590
-1.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120%
25486
26111
-2.4
24569
25210
-2.5
M ean
22504
23005
-2.2
21925
22433
-2.3
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J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010
Table 3: Com parison between observed and predicted data for tuber yield (kg/ha) at El- Beheira Governorate.
Cultivar
Irrigation Levels
Current
H adCM 3
D ifference%
CSIRO
D ifference%
D ezareah
60%
12045
10800
-11.5
10252
-14.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80%
21015
19109
-10.0
18239
-13.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100%
25379
23150
-9.6
22445
-11.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120%
24789
22200
-11.7
21420
-13.6
Valour
60%
14920
13439
-11.0
12769
-14.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80%
24090
21850
-10.3
20997
-12.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100%
26350
24090
-9.4
23410
-11.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120%
25811
23170
-11.4
21985
-14.8
M ean
21800
19726
-11
18940
-13
Fig. 1: Comparison between observed and predicted data for potato yield at difference irrigation levels during two
seasons of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007.
Fig. 2: Comparison between current and future potato production (kg/ha) by using two general circulation models
(HadCM3 and CSIRO) for A1 Scenario during 2050 at El- Beheira Governorate.
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J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010
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