Download Quantifying Audience Theatre Preferences Using SAS Statistical Procedures

Quantifying Audience Theatre Preferences Using SAS® Statistical Procedures
James D. Ryan, Emporia State University
Abstract
musical is presented in addition to romantic comedies,
farces, and mysteries. In large part because summer
theatre is primarily supported by the community, less
controversial, experimental or adult-oriented material is
produced. The following will further illuminate the
production philosophy of Emporia State Theatre.
The purpose of this paper is to illustmte how the SAS
System may be used to determine the type of theatre
performance - comedy, drama or nmsical- which
audiences in a small town in the Midwest prefer. Using
time series data on theatre attendance at Emporia State
University, the paper shows how to quantify audience
theatre preference using several SAS procedures such
as: PROC FREQ, PROC UNIVARIATE and PROC
REG. In addition to nmnerous descriptive statistics
measures, a chi-square analysis is performed to
determine whether or not there is a statistically
significant difference in audience preference for the
type of performances. Finally, PROC REG is used to
determine if trends exist in the data.
Empirical Results: Descriptive Statistics
The following SAS output was derived using PROC
MEANS, PROC REG, PROC FREQ and PROC G3D,
as well as several diagrams using SAS JMP software.
Means Analysis Revenue and Percent
Comedy
N
Variable
revenue 17
Introduction
17
per<el1l
Emporia State University was founded in 1863 as
Maximum
M"mimum
Sid Dev
Mean
5420.011
2403.011
3824.29 778.0221530
70.8235294 10.2544825 51.0000000 86.00110
Musicals
Kansas State Normal College, a school whose principal
focus was teacher tmining. In 2001, ESU's emphasis
remains the tmining of teachers. However, the breadth
of educational oportunities has dramatically increased.
In a town of27,000, the University's student population
is 5,600, of which 1500 live on campus. Sixty majors
are offered, along with fifty-two areas of concentration
leading to seventeen degrees at the B.A., Masters and
Ph.D. level The Department of Theatre is among the
more honored and recognized programs at Emporia
State. ESU has the only theatre program in the United
States to produce back-to-back winners of the hene
Ryan Scholarship, given annually to the nation's top
collegiate actor. The Deptartment mounts at least eight
productions each year, including four in what is the
oldest Summer Stock program in the state ofKansas.
During the academic year an effort is made to do plays
from a broad spectnnn of genres and time periods. It is
believed that student actors, designers, directors and
stage managers (as well as Emporia audiences as a
whole) can most fully benefit from theatrical
experiences if they are as varied as possible. Emporia
State Summer Theatre is far more commercial. Begun
by Karl C. Bruder and George RR Pflaum in 1955,
2001 will mark the forty-seventh consecutive year in
which Emporia State has presented summer stock.. The
initial production in that summer of'S5 was Harvey
which was followed by seven additonal plays. The
tmdition of presenting eight productions in eight weeks
continued unti11959 when the season was reduced to
six shows in eight weeks. In 1976 the number was
again reduced, this time to five productions. Finally, in
1980, the number of summer ~eatre productions was
set at four. It remains so today. Each year at least one
Variable
N
.........
8
8
pereent
Mean
5810.00
77.62500110
Maximum
MiDinmm
StdDev
7328.011
3552.00
1414.46
15.5097895 57.0000000 95.000110
Drama
Variable N
........ 13
pereent 13
Maximum
Millimum
Sid Dev
Mean
5188.00
2627.00
3493.92 719.0430517
9.3404277 40.0000000 7!1.00110
60.9230769
A!l Types: Drama. Comedy and Muslul Spring and FaR
Variable N
......... 14
peroenl 14
Maximum
Millimum
Sid Dev
Mean
5420.00
2627.011
3693.14 868.8260742
64.9285714 11.5056126 40.0000000 83.00110
Summer: Drama, Comedy and Musical
Variable N
24
pereent 24
Mean
4383.75
71.1666667
Maximum
Millimum
SldDev
7328.011
2403.00
1403.28
12.9334977 51.00001100 95.00110
Empirical Results: Regression Analysis
Dependonl Variable:
Revenue
Allalysis ofVariaace
Mean
SIUDof
~ FValuo l'r>F
Squares
DF
8ouroe
0.43 0.5481
6755550
6755550
I
Model
15736921
62947683
4
l!m!r
69703233
Comocted TOIB 5
RDotMSE
3966.97880
RooSquare
0.0!169
26152 Acij R-Sq ..0.1289
Dependon!Mean
15.16874
Coeii"Var
Variable
lnt=epl
year
DF
I
I
Eslimato
·1214302
621.31429
l!m!r
1893260
948.28931
tValuc l'r>itl
Dependent Variable: JemWe
2.284
Durbin-WaiSOD D
6
Number ofObservatioos
lsi Order AutDco1relation ..0.330
579
..0.64
0.66
0.5562
0.5481
41
Output Statistics
51
61
SfdFnur Student
DepVarPnodicted SfdFnur
Obo menue ValueMeanPnodict 95%Cl.Pnodict Residual Residual
Raidual
I 26936
24599
2871
2155
2
23308
25220
3
28481
4
21836
25842
26463
5
6
24385
31968
27084
27706
38195
11003
2337 2737
.s
o.o1o
I I
o.oos
0.289
97.92819
Sum of Squared Residuals
Pnodicted Residual ss (PRESS) 184.60589
0.854
-1912 3330.3 .0.574
2639 3590.2 0.735
12685 37755
1687 13872 37811
1687 14494 38432 -4627 3590.2 -1.289
2155 14549 39619 -2699 3330.3 .0.811
2871 14110 41302 4262 2737.s 1.557
Empirical Results: Chi-Square Analysis
Cook's
D
Obo -2-1012
I I
••t I
....._
II I* I 0.401
21 •I I 0.06!1
31 I. I 0.060
41 ••1 I 0.183
51 •I I 0.138
61 I"• I 1.333
........
_,..
Col Pot
0
1
•
7
18.42
•
Dependlmt Variable: Pertent
Anal)'lis of Variance
Mean
Sum of
SqUIIIe FValue Pr>F
Squares
DF
Soun:e
0.9349
0,0]
0.18514
0.18514
I
Model
24.48205
97.92819
4
Fnur
98.11333
Conocted Total 5
R-Square 0.0019
4.94793
Root MSB
68.73333 Adj R-Sq .0.2476
Dependent Mean
7.19874
CoeffVar
12
1
31.51
30.12
62947683
168535457
Total
....
.....
..... .....
• • •
..... ..... .....
• .... • ......
.....
.....
•
10.53
Sum of Squared Residuals
Pnodicted Residual ss (PRESS)
•
8.12
12.50
12
10.53
3:1.11$
13,111
41.&7
7.11
31.58
37.&0
3
1
10.&3
.....
TotaJ.
7.14
7.01
28.51
SO. DO
17
13
8
38
44.74
34.21
21.05
100.00
..
Statistios for Table of adjpercent by type
Variable
Intercept
year
Pammeter
S1andaM
Estimate
DF
Fnur
I 274.08762 2361.42588
1.18278
.0.10286
I
statiatic
tValue Pr>l~
0.12
.0.09
Chi·Square
Likelinaod Rlt.Lo Chi·SqUaro
0.9132
0.9349
llantel-Hienazel Chi-Square
Phi Coeff ioltnt
ContJ.ngancy eo.fficient
2.037
Durbin-Watson D
6
Number ofObsmations
1st Order Aurocorrelation -0.061
Craaer•a Y
Oulpu!Stalisti'"
Sid llm>r Dep v.. PrediCIOd Sid llm>r
Obo pcn:cnt ValucMeanPm!icl 9S%CLPm!icl Raldllal Rai<Wlt<si<ilal
I 66.1000 68.9905 3.5811 52Jl323 85.9486 -:1.8905 3.414 .0.847
2: 61.2000 68.8876 1.6SSS g.mo Msm -1.6876 4.154 ~.406
2.1048 53.8558 83.7137 7.81Sl 4.478 1.745
3 76.6000 68.7848
4 70.0000 68.6819 2.1048 53.7530 83.6109 1.3181 4.478 0.294
2.6885 529444 84.1137 -4.8790 4.154 -1.175
5 63.7000 68.5790
3.5811 51.$180 85.4343 0.3231 3.414 0.0948
6 68.8000 68.4762
Oulpul Slatistics
Cook's .
Obo -2-1 0 I 2
D
II •1 I 0.394
21 I I o.oo5
31
t•••
1 0.336
580
••
1
-os1zo • ae
Value
.....
8.&148
0.0744
1.7483
0.1416
0.4714
0.4279
0.3147
0.0449
0.7028
100
75
1:!
i
50
25
0
f
type
musical
all_summer
comedy
all_spring_fall
type
8000
6000
i
4000
2000
0
f
type
581
-drama
3250
..... .....
3000E
- -- ----...
... ...... ...
.
..-
.
-
.
~2750E
cG)
~
C:::2500E:
•
.
.
2250E
2000
1993
..I
1994
I
1995
... ... .... -----I
I
1996
1997
Year
I
:-:-=-Linear Fit
I
7328
582
--...
I
1998
.....
~
I
1999
200
Contact Information
Conclusion
The author may be contacted at:
Results from the statistical analysis indicate that there is
a statistically significantly difference in audience
preference for the three types of theatre shows. The chi
square value of 8.51 and the associatedp-valueof0.07
attest to this. The regression analysis indicates that for
each increase in the year variable, theatre revenue
increases$ 621 dollars. However, at-value of0.66 and
a relatively low R-square value of 0.0969 were found.
It also appears that there has not been a change in the
average percent attendance over time. The regression t
and p-values verify this conclusion. Summer percent
attendance with an average percentage value of71.2
percent was significantly higher than the average of
combined spring and fall percent attendance of 64.9
percent
James D. Ryan, Ph.D.
Department ofComnnmications
Emporia State University
Emporia, Kansas 66801
Phone: (316) 341-5256
[email protected]
References
SAS Institute Inc., SAS/ETS Software:
Applications Guides 1 and 2, Version 6, First
Edition, 1993.
SAS Institute Inc., SAS/STATUser's Guide, Vols
I and n, 1990 Version 6, Fomth Edition. Cary,
N.C.: SAS Institute Inc.
583