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An introduction to THE CLIMPACTS SYSTEM: a country-scale IAM By Dr Xianfu Lu, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research At AIACC Intensive Training Workshop on Development and Application of Scenarios in Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessments 15~26 April, Tyndall Centre, UEA, UK The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Next 30 minutes 1. A short description of CLIMPACTS 2. Climate components within CLIMPACTS 3. A quick tour around the climate components of CLIMPACTS The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI 1. A short description of CLIMPACTS • Developed by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand (http://www.waikato.ac.nz/igci/) • To enhance the understanding of the sensitivity of New Zealand’s natural and managed environments to climate variability and change. • A “vertically integrated” linked model system • Input to the System: emissions of GHGs; output: indicators of impacts • Key model and data components The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI 1. A short description of CLIMPACTS • Key model and data components: o MAGICC – to project global-mean temperature and sea-level changes o A climate change scenario generator for New Zealand – to link output from MAGICC with climate change patterns for New Zealand and historical climate data o Historical climate and land use capacity data for New Zealand o Impact models for arable cropping, fruit crops, pasture production and soil organic matter, and a simple water balance model o Data brower, weather generators and an extreme event analysis tool – to facilitate more detailed analyses of site data The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios User-defined model parameters 1. GLOBAL Energy Balance Climate Model (MAGICC) GCM Results 2. NEW ZEALAND (National and Regional) Climate Scenario Generator Averages Variability Weather Generators Climate data Extremes Extreme Analysis Tools 3. IMPACT MODELS Arable Crops Grasslands Fruit Crops Soils Water Balance Land use classification Environmental Effects Schematic representation of the CLIMPACTS system (IGCI, NEW ZEALAND, 2002) The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI 2. Climate components within CLIMPACTS • Historical climate data o Long-term, monthly mean values for T, P and solar radiation derived from 1951~80 record, used to develop spatially-interpolated climatologies o Daily time-series for T and P, used by impact models, extreme event analysis tools and WG • MAGICC • GCM patterns • ENSO patterns The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI 3. A quick tour around Climate components within CLIMPACTS Three types of climate scenarios can be generated within CLIMPACTS • Synthetic scenarios • Analogue scenarios • GCM-based scenarios The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI