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The Role of Technology in Reducing Road Transport Emissions Climate Change: The Business Forecast 5th October 2005 Graham Smith MD Toyota (GB) PLC Chairman, Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership Rising transport emissions threaten the UK achieving its Kyoto and domestic CO2 targets Changes in UK GHG emissions by principal end user sectors 120% Business Change on 1990 110% Industrial processes 100% Kyoto target 90% Transport Residential 80% Agriculture UK CO2 target 70% 60% Total (GHG) 50% Total (CO2) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source Climate Change Programme Consultation Toyota’s Guiding Principle Zeronise Maximise Reducing road transport emissions will require a combination of measures Reduced vehicle emissions Low carbon / alternative fuels Improved driver behaviour Reduced vehicle use Better freight distribution Estimated costs and savings of alternative technology 100 Renewable hydrogen with fuel cell Advanced biofuels with hybrid 90 Fraction CO2 saved 80 Hydrogen from gas & coal (plus carbon capture) with fuel cell 70 60 Hydrogen from gas & coal with fuel cell 50 40 Grid electricity with battery Bioethanol FAME 30 Gasoline Hybrid 20 Hydrogen from gas & coal with hybrid Diesel 10 Gasoline 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Additional cost £/tonne CO2 avoided Adapted from E4Tech – A Strategic Framework for Hydrogen Energy in the UK Toyota’s Multi Path Approach The Ultimate ECO-Car - HSD FCHV THS Hybrid Technology GTL Toyota D-CAT D4 Lean-burn CNG EV Common-rail VVT-i Alternative fuel Diesel Petrol Electricity Future evolution of Hybrid Technology FINE-S: hydrogen Prius: gasoline Engine Fuel Cell Power control unit Secondary battery Motor Secondary battery Power control unit Motor Environmental concerns are a low priority for most private car buyers Top priorities Price Fuel consumption Size/Practicality Reliability Comfort Safety Running costs Style/Appearance Whilst mpg is reported as a key decision making factor there is little evidence to demonstrate this Some influence Performance Image Brand Insurance Engine size Equipment levels Car-buyer reported concerns Low priorities Depreciation Experience Sales Package Dealership Environment Vehicle Emissions Road tax Alternative fuel Motorists have a poor understanding of vehicle running costs and will bear additional annual costs of £1-1.5k before considering downsizing their vehicles Public understanding of vehicle emissions and new technology is very limited Whilst motorists are concerned about climate change few understand its causes and less take personal responsibility Moving consumer attitudes in favour of low carbon vehicles is a major challenge New car sales by VED Band 100 F 90 80 E 60 D 50 40 C 30 20 B 10 A 2003 2001 1999 0 1997 % Sales 70 Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership Accelerating a sustainable shift to low carbon vehicles and fuels in the UK Stimulating opportunities for UK businesses Summary Technology offers the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transport – but responsible vehicle use will also be an important contributor The range of fuel and vehicle technology options are wide – most vehicle manufacturers believe hybrid technology is an important step in the evolution of technology to zero emission vehicles Low carbon technologies come at a financial premium and current incentives are inadequate to change the attitudes and purchasing behaviours of most consumers The transition to a low carbon future needs a partnership approach the LowCVP is delivering.