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Transcript
APN
Principal Investigator:
Dr. Amir Muhammed, Director
Asianics Agro. Dev. International, Islamabad, Pakistan
Countries Involved: Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh
Intended Period : 3 Years; Approved First Year(2002) Activities
APN,
Hansen Institute for World Peace, START
N
Nepal
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
Statement of the Problem
The region is highly sensitive to flood and drought
The elements/sectors currently at risk are likely to
highly vulnerable to climate change and variability
There exist uncertainties in dealing with vulnerabilities
associated to climate change and variability because of:
* lack of synthesis of experience in climate trends
and extreme events
* insufficient baseline information about current impact, adaptation
response/capacity and vulnerabilities
Research Questions
What are the element at risk to drought and flood in the present and in the
future climate change scenario ?
What are the possible of options to deal with the vulnerabilities associated to
Climate change and variability ?
Main Objectives
• Analyze recent experience in climate variability and
extreme events, and their impacts on regional water
resources
Assess the impacts of projected climate change and
variability and associated extreme hydrological events,
and socio-economic changes on the water resources of
Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh
Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to
climate change and identifying key risks to each sub-region
and prioritizing adaptation responses
Evaluate the efficacy of various adaptation strategies or
coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the
regional water resources
Provide inputs to relevant national and regional
long-term development strategies
Research Framework
Past/current variability
& trend
Existing adaptive
Responses/capacity
Current
vulnerability
Lesson learned
Link to policy/stakeholder
Climate change
scenarios
Socio-economic
change scenarios
Future
vulnerabilities
Future adaptive response/capacity
External influence
Trans-boundary, regional
& global factors
Based on Burton, I
National development
plans/priorities
Alternative policy options
and priority measures for
policy makers/stakeholders
Methodology
Literature review and synthesis of findings
Use of the GCM models for climate change scenarios
Use of GIS tools for vulnerability mapping
Collection of data for SHUs (Selected Hydrological Units) presently at risk
- Field survey and key actor interviews
Impact assessment
-Loss/damage of life and property (lives, agriculture, forestry, infrastructure)
- water availability/quality
- food availability
- social equity
- human health
- population displacement/ migration
- others
Vulnerability assessment
Inventory of elements exposed to climatic hazard
Population ( sex, age, caste/ethnicity, income groups)
Infrastructure ( settlement, engineering infrastructure, institutions)
Economy ( Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries) industry, trade)
Environment (Land use/land cover and biodiversity)
Adaptation assessments
Methods
Stakeholder consultation
Participatory tools
Cost benefit analysis
Expert Judgment
Policy measures and action plan
Robustness
Ability,
Availability of resource
Efficiency
Options to respond
Resilience
Resources, Institutions
governance, attitude,
Perception etc
Expected Outcomes
Assessment of vulnerability of regional water resources to
expected climate change
Identification of extreme hydrologic events from historical
record that had major regional impacts and a thorough analysis
of regional vulnerability and adaptation practices that were used
to deal with such disasters
An assessment of adaptation options and coping mechanisms in
the region
 Relevant to anticipated regional climate change and water
resource availability and use
Inputs to national and regional water resource management
and policy/decision making community as well as the next
round of the IPCC Assessments
Several publications in scientific journals and a book
Pakistan’s Country
Report
Syed Amjad Hussain
( Pakistan)
st
1
Year Thrust Areas
 Analysis of recent climatic variability
and extreme events
 Impacts of climatic variability and
extreme events on water and related
sectors
 Climatic change and socio-economic
scenarios
 Projected Impacts and vulnerability
Target Areas-I
 National Scale Studies
 Climatic Variability
 Impacts on Water Resources and other
Sectors
 Socio-economic Impacts
Target Areas-II
 District Scale Studies
 Climatic Variability
 Extreme Events
 Impacts on Water Resources and other
Sectors
 Socio-economic Impacts
st
1
Thrust Area
Analysis of Recent
Climatic Variability
and Extreme Events
Collection of Climatic Data
 Historical data of temperature and rainfall of
selected periods :
 1930-60
 1960-1990
 Recent data of temperature and rainfall for :
 1991-2001
Analysis of Climatic
Variability
 Temperature
 Growing degree days
 Seasonal rainfall
 Evapotranspiration
Analysis of Extreme
Events
 Droughts
 Seasonal rainfall
 Evapotranspiration
 Floods
 Seasonal rainfall
 Evapotranspiration
nd
2
Thrust Area
Impacts of climatic
variability and
extreme events on
water and related
sectors
Collection of Historical Data







River flow
Water table depths
Groundwater quality
Soil salinity
Land salinity
Land use
Area and yield of crops
Impacts Assessment
 Change in availability of surface water
 Change in groundwater recharge
 Change in salinity/waterlogging
 Shift in potential boundary of crop potential areas
 Change in productivity
 Change in water use of crops
 Change in landuse
rd
3
Thrust Area
Climatic change
and socio-economic
scenarios
Socio-economic Impacts
 Agriculture
 Forestry
 Desertification
 Costal zone
 Human health
 Industry and energy
 Endangered species
th
4
Thrust Area
Projected Impacts and
Vulnerability
Projected Impacts
 Projected production of
Agricultural Commodities
 Demand of Agricultural
Commodities
 Water Availability for
Agriculture
Vulnerability Assessment
 Potential vulnerability of
crops to heat stress
 Potential vulnerability of
cropping intensity to
drought
Thank you very
much