Download Sustainable agriculture and climate change Presentation at the

Sustainable agriculture and climate
change
Presentation at the CBCP-NASSA Sustainable Agriculture Farmers’ Assembly, 19 May 2008, NASSA SA Learning Laboratory
and Demonstration Farm, Misereor Village, Bgy Balaring, General Natividad, Nueva Ecija
Isagani R Serrano
Acting President, Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement
(PRRM) and Co-convenor of Go Organic! Philippines, Social Watch
Philippines, and Philippine Network on Climate Change
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Agriculture’s responsibility in the
changing climate
• 12 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
according the Interagency Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) of the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Does not include
deforestation which accounts for about 18 percent.
• Between 16 and 30 percent, if you ask
Greenpeace.
• In the Philippines, a basically agrarian economy,
agriculture’s share in GHG emissions is 33 percent,
including land use change and forestry (LULUCF).
• A full-cycle assessment of agriculture may reveal a
larger carbon footprint overall.
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Contrasting scenarios of UNFCCC-IPCC
translated for agriculture
• From more-of-the-same or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario
human action may focus on economic (A) or environmental
(B); and global (1) or regional (2). So from this you get four
storylines and several combinations: e.g. A1 is
economic/global; B1 environmental/global; A2
economic/regional; B2 environmental/regional.
• UNFCCC/IPCC ends up with 40 such scenarios and timelines of
hundred years which may be meaningless if you’re worried
about what CC has in store for you tomorrow.
• What if you extend this modeling down to country and subcountry levels? Variations can be mindbending as you go local
and implications and uncertainties for agriculture and food
systems even much more complex and unimaginable.
3
Range of climate stabilization
• Globalwarming (GW) predictions vary from
0.5 to 4 degrees Centigrade.
• Climate stabilization levels expressed in parts
per million (ppm) of carbon concentration in
the air are 350 ppm, 450 ppm, 550ppm and
650 ppm.
• Safety level we’re advised NEVER to cross---2
degrees Centigrade.
• Which means the deeper we cut on our
emissions---our carbon footprint---the safer it
will be for us.
4
Contrasting scenarios for agriculture
• Agriculture-as-usual (AAU)---modern, industrial,
corporate-led and marginalizing for small farmers;
Green Revolution/genetic modification (GR/GM)
oriented; global trading and longer food mile; natural
resource depletion and environmental pollution;
high external input and energy-intensive; larger
carbon footprint.
• Sustainable agriculture (SA)---organic, local,
resource-regenerating; bias for small farmers; local
food systems and shorter food miles; oriented to
social and environmental justice and sustainable
development.
5
How might it be if BAU and AAU
scenarios continue?
6
CC disturbs the water cycle
• Water cycle---how water moves from Earth’s surface to the
atmosphere and back to the surface again through
evaporation (transpiration), condensation, and precipitation
(rain).
• But water is fixed quantity (75% of Earth’s surface 97% of it
salty and only 3% fresh) and doesn’t go anywhere outside of
our ecosphere. So why worry? If short of freshwater there’s
the ocean full of it, desalinate and you get more than enough
to irrigate your farms and fill all swimming pools. Really?
• It’s not quantity we should worry about but the physical
states (solid, liquid, gas) and distribution of water that will
change with climate change. Global warming melts the ice
fields, warms the oceans, dries or heats up whatever it hits
and brings us extreme weather events like violent storms,
floods, and droughts that affect water condition and farming
everywhere.
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CC disturbs the carbon cycle
• Carbon cycle---how carbon molecules move
between the living (biotic) and nonliving
(abiotic) world.
• More CO2 emissions more CO2 fertilization?
• Or CO2 overdose?
• Who knows?
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CC disturbs the nitrogen cycle
• Nitrogen cycle---how nitrogen moves from the
atmosphere to the soil, to living organisms,
and then back to the atmosphere.
• Like water, nitrogen is fixed quantity (78 % of
the air). More bad weather, more lightning
that fixes nitrogen in the soil. So more
nitrogen fertilization? Who knows.
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Climate justice principle
• UNFCCC Art. 3.1 – countries should act “on the basis
of common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities”
• Annex I Parties or developed countries who polluted
the most are mainly responsible for mitigation and
have a special obligation to transfer money and clean
technology to Non-Annex I Parties or developing
countries who contributed less but are deemed to
suffer more from the consequences of climate
change.
10
Climate justice principle in
agriculture
• Agriculture is not just about growing food. It’s
also about social and environmental justice.
• Industrial agriculture/factory farming accounts for
much of the depletion of natural resources and
pollution of the environment;
• SA regenerates resources, cleans up poisoned
water, soil, and air; in contrast to highlycentralized industrial agriculture, SA is more
decentralized and empowering to small farmers
and local communities.
11
Sustainable agriculture can feed
the world
• Since the 1960s, the prevailing wisdom has been that only
Green Revolution can save the world from hunger.
• The Hunger Project of 1980 aimed to end world hunger by
2000.
• Today, close to a billion people still suffer from hunger.
• The International Assessment of Agricultural Science and
Technology for Development (IAASTD 2000) admitted to
the shortcomings of GR technology and recognized the
critical role of indigenous knowledge and sustainable
agriculture in attaining food security.
• Transition worries, like possible drop in production, could
be offset through, say, reduction in costs of production and
increased incomes for farmers and change in eating habits
and lifestyles (eg, from ‘fast food’ to ‘slow food’).
12
How it’s been since 1960s, or farther
back in time
Pathway to the current conception of modern agriculture
13
Sustainable agriculture
• A farming culture or a whole system---a
philosophy, set of principles, knowledge,
science & technology (KST), using diverse
approaches---that
>regenerates natural resources and
protects the environment;
>is economically viable;
>empowers small farmers and promotes
common good; and
>is grounded on holistic science.
14
The complex integrated world of SA
(short of Steiner’s biodynamic farming universe)
15
SA and CC mitigation
• Sustainable agriculture has a comparatively smaller carbon footprint.
• SA helps reduce GHG emissions (eg, avoidance/withdrawal of
synthetic chemical inputs).
• SA helps capture, store and utilize carbon.
• SA will restore the humus—the foundation of farming.
• SA rehabilitates depleted resources and detoxifies poisoned land,
water and air.
• SA shortens the food mile: food is produced as close as possible to
where it’s consumed.
• SA recycles wastes.
• SA doubles as carbon sink and natural carbon factory.
• With its many plusses for both mitigation and adaptation, and hardly
any downsides, SA should be a “no regrets” option.
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SA and CC adaptation
• Restoring the humus for better growth of
plants and microorganisms, water retention,
reducing soil erosion and degradation, and
carbon capture.
• Restoring farm biodiversity (eg. crop
diversification) to reduce effects of crop failure
in extreme weather events.
• In SA, small farmers are ‘king’ and ‘queen’.
• With SA, communities can adjust better to CC
as their farms become more resilient.
17
SA and REDD
• SA cannot prosper without reducing emissions from
deforestation and degradation (REDD) which
accounts for about 18 % of GHG emissions. Forests
are the farms’ headlands.
• SA includes agro-forestry and watershed protection;
improvement of soil and water quality; and
sustainable livelihoods for forest communities and
indigenous peoples.
• So-called ‘net green’, based on monoculture
industrial tree plantation, is inconsistent with SA and
sustainable forestry.
18
SA and finance and technology
transfer
• SA and organic farmers deserve to be
compensated for doing a great job for
securing our food system and building a zerowaste society for all of us.
• SA knowledge, science and technology (KST) is
being freely shared around the world and
undergoing continuous improvement. This
should be duly credited as a bottom-up
contribution in climate talks and negotiations.
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In conclusion
• In the end, even with the best knowledge, we
do not know exactly how nature will behave.
But we do know humanity had done itself and
nature a great injustice, and we know what
needs to change.
• SA is doing justice to society and our
environment. It’s one major pathway to
sustainable development.
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