Download Agrofuels_DrivingClimateChange

Agrofuels
…driving climate change
( a systemic view )
Outline
• Two Converging Imperatives: Peak Oil
and Climate Change
• The Agro-Biofuels Solution
• Three Impacts: Food, Forests, Climate
An IPCC proposal for stabilising CO2: the Pascala
and Socolow wedges. Each wedge saves 25
billion tonnes of emissions between now and
2050.
Billions of tonnes
of Carbon emitted
per year
7 wedges
Historical
emissions
1955
2005
2055
2105
Replacing Oil with Biofuels
• Bioethanol, Biobutanol, Biodiesel
• 1 Wedge = 24m barrels/day of bioethanol
replacing gasoline by 2055
• Requires 250m Ha of high yield plantation
• Or 1/6 of global cropland = land mass of India
NREL
Fuel = Food
Mexicans taking to the streets as ethanol makes their
staple food unaffordable
A Declaration by Latin American NGOs:
“We want food sovereignty, not biofuels…
While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based
on automobile culture, the population of
Southern countries will have less and less land
for food crops and will loose its food
sovereignty…
We are therefore appealing to the governments
and people of the European Union countries to
seek solutions that do not worsen the already
dramatic social and environmental situation of
the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa.”
Army repression against peasants
protesting against soya plantations
The human cost of biofuel monocultures:
pesticide poisoning in Paraguay
Landless People’s Camp in Front of Large
Industrial Agriculture Estate, Upper Parana
The camp is set on fire
Expulsion in Tekojoja, December 2004. Soya
producers destroyed the local community’s fields
Soya monocultures are a green desert around the
remaining small islands of forest, Soya Toledo,
Nina Holland.
Sawit Watch Challenges Land Grab
“Palm oil for biofuels increases social conflicts
and undermines land reform in Indonesia…
It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of
Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of
indigenous peoples and local communities will
be relinquished further, and that food security
will be undermined and lands for agricultural
purposes and subsistence livelihoods will
diminish.”
Indigenous Penan people trying to stop industrial
loggers from destroying their forest
Logging and palm oil expansion go
hand in hand
Burning the rainforest to clear land
for palm oil
South-east Asia’s peatlands hold
up to 50 billion tonnes of carbon
Draining Borneo’s peat for plantations
Borneo ablaze:
Annual peat fires pump billions of
tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere
As ethanol pushes up the price of sugar
cane, this rainforest in Uganda is to be
sacrificed for sugar plantations
Protest against land grab: FoE Nigeria
“It is a push by industry to make another
scramble for Africa, grab the land and
continue with business as usual. The
industrial bio-energy push to increased bioenergy demand will be nothing other than an
effort at extending the frontiers of neocolonialism in its continued march on the
back of the fabled market forces.”
NASA: Rate of Amazon destruction
correlates with market price of Soya
In the past few months, the price of soya has started
rising again, thanks to biofuels.
And the Amazon is being cut down faster than before.
Amazon rainforest
destroyed for soya
Burning the rainforest to clear land
for soya plantations
Dry season fires are widespread along margin of Amazon. Fingers of cleared
land typically form a “herringbone” pattern as they extend from roads
Agro-Biofuels in the EU
• Germany is at capacity using 12% of
arable land to achieve 1% transport fuel penetration
• Oil Seed Rape: clover/alfalfa – Red Kyte, Ortolan Bunting
• 60% Wetlands lost in N & W Europe
• 45% Butterflies
• 30% Reptiles
• Birds, Insects, Wildflowers
• EU Biodiversity Loss target (2010)
• EU Abolish Compulsory Set-asides from 2008
• Rapeseed oil, Sugar Beet. Animal feed displaced to Argentina, Colombia, Brazil
GM Agrofuels
• Plant Genomes
• Microbes
• Potentially significant micro-lifecycle
gains but 5–10 yrs away
• Bottom Line: Micro vs. Macro Lifecycle
Irony of Agrofuels
 40% increase in fuel efficiency via Hybridisation
 10 – 20% through weight reduction
 20 – 40% through smaller engines built for economy
 10% through aerodynamics and low friction tyres
 30% efficiency by reduced travel speeds, careful
driving, correct tyre pressures, clean engine oil etc
 TOTAL = 110-140% efficiency = ½-¼ fuel = 13m barrels / day
Pascala & Socolow achieve 24m b/d bioethanol = 17m b/d gas.
Climate Critical Data
• Gaia and non-linearity
• Currently: 383ppm CO2
• 450 ppm CO2e gives 30-60% risk of 2+C
…Climate Tipping Point
State of Play
 RTFO Biofuels Plan – 5%
 EU Biofuels Plan – 5.75% / 10%
 US Renewable Fuels Standard – 20%
 China vast acerage planned
 India following suit
Mitigation: EU Fuels Standards Quality Dir
Certification = False Legitimisation
… because macro-impacts cannot included
Macro-Climate Impacts of
Agrofuels
 Land use change – deforestation
 Land Use Change – peat and soils
 Chemical Fertilisers – N2O emissions
 Acceleration of climate feedbacks
Conclusion
 Monbiot: 5-year freeze on Agro-Biofuel
targets
 FoE Paraguay and Argentinian NGO’s
calling for moratorium
 250 NGO’s and prominent individuals calling
for a halt on all biofuel targets
 Certification cannot deal with macro-climate
impacts or displacement - wrong policy
instrument