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Towards Local Costing of Climate Change Impacts for Decision Making in Adaptation Alistair Hunt and Tim Taylor, University of Bath, UK Session 32 - Economic Costs of Adapting and not Adapting to Climate Change International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, March 11, 2009. Research: Overview • Objective: provide quantitative estimates of economic welfare costs of CC impacts projected to face stakeholders at local scale, within UK. benefits gained from taking adaptive action. • test robustness of methodological components: stakeholder-driven; scenario down-scaling; use of non-market values Impacts and primary stakeholder Impact considered Primary Stakeholder Road maintenance in summer Cambridgeshire County Council (subsidence) and winter (salting - ice) Domestic property subsidence Association of British Insurers Historic garden maintenance in Cornwall (lawn mowing and pest control) National Trust Health impacts of hot summers in Hampshire Hampshire County Council Methods • Stakeholder role: scoping; data provision; method validation • Quantify current vulnerability – analogue data; mix of means and extremes • Impact projections to 2100 – 4 Down-scaled climate scenarios • (correspond to: A1F1, A2, B2 & B1 IPCC SRES) – Socio-economic scenarios • evolution of ‘stock-at-risk’; ‘prices’, and; adaptive capacity Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Costs: A Simplified framework Results • Impact costs in annual terms - three 30-year time periods; for 4 climate scenarios – climate change gross & net of socio-economic change, discounted using exponentially declining rates, and undiscounted. – Stakeholders identified adaptation options • initial assessment of adaptation cost and its distribution of burden e.g. between private and public sector economic agents. Annual Impact multipliers over baseline (2011–2040 time period, undiscounted) Impact considered Primary Stakeholder Road maintenance in summer (subsidence) and; winter (salting - ice) 13 – 15 Domestic property subsidence 12 - 15 Historic garden maintenance in Cornwall (lawn mowing and pest control) 1.2 – 1.5 Health impacts of hot summers in Hampshire 16 - 18 (-) 1.3 – 1.6 Example: Cost of Building Subsidence in UK 350 300 Annual 250 Subsidence 200 cost in UK 150 (£m ) 100 50 0 2020s 2050s 2080s L no L M-L M-L M-H M-H H no H CC CC no CC no CC CC CC CC CC Em issions Scenario Aggregate Benefits & Costs - adaptation options to domestic property subsidence Adaptation Measure Benefit Cost Higher insurance premiums to cover higher remediation costs Withdrawal of insurance cover for properties vulnerable to subsidence Insurer covers costs of increased number of claims £3.6 – £12.1bn1 Increased household insurance costs. Insurer avoids increased exposure. £3.6 – £12.1bn. Loss of property values and if remain inhabited will bear full cost Underpinning & structural measures £3.6 – £12.1bn. Max avoided loss. £28 - £69bn2. Total cost of measures for all properties at risk £1.5 – £5.6bn3 £2.0 – £3.5bn4 Not known Not known Building regulations for: - deeper foundations of 1 metre - building materials Bearer of Cost Burden Household bears increased costs Householders bear full remediation costs. Possible ghettoisation for low income groups Benefit borne by insurer & house owner Cost borne by housebuilder or owner Benefit borne by insurer & house owner Cost borne by housebuilder or owner Aggregate Benefits & Costs - adaptation options to domestic property subsidence Adaptation Measure Spatial policy Benefit planning £1.5 – £5.6bn5 Clearance of nearby vegetation or restrictions on future planting Regular water sprinkling of vegetation Max avoided loss. £3.6 – £12.1bn. Max avoided loss £3.6 – £12.1bn. Max avoided loss Cost Bearer of Cost Burden Benefit borne by Loss of land values insurer & house and possible social owner. costs of higher density Cost borne by house housing and land owners. Not known6 Cost borne by house and land owners Not known Cost borne by house and land owners Conclusions • Primary stakeholders able to use generated quantitative information in planning processes. Common money metric found to be valuable – At least as important for planning for current vulnerability as for future vulnerability under CC • Uncertainty in results provokes different responses according to stakeholder contexts, preferences. – Spread risk across stakeholders e.g. Promote range of responses (property subsidence) – Reactive e.g. Wait for trend to become clear (Gardens) – Proactive e.g. Bid for more financial resources to centre (Health, roads) Conclusions II • Down-scaling to sub-national level increases confidence with which stakeholders approach exercise • tension with introduced scaling uncertainties • Research priority: need to understand economic, and other, factors that determine adaptation response e.g. what is value of information likely to be for different actors?