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Climate Hazards & Risk Assessment AIACC Kickoff Meeting Nairobi February 11-14 2002 Roger N. Jones Atmospheric Research What is a hazard? Atmospheric Research Typology of extreme climate events Description Variable Measure Exceeding critical level on a continuous scale Extreme rainfall Temperature Frequency Return period Sequence Duration Complex Weather events events combining multiple variables and/or resulting in multiple impacts Tropical cyclones ENSO events Drought Frequency magnitude Severity of impacts Singular events Cessation of deep- Probability ocean circulation magnitude of Ice sheet collapse impact Type Simple events A possible future climatic state with potentially extreme outcomes Atmospheric Research Frequency of exceeding heat index threshold 90.0 THI Units 80.0 THI78 THI72 70.0 60.0 50.0 1/10/98 31/10/98 30/11/98 30/12/98 29/01/99 28/02/99 30/03/99 Date Atmospheric Research Current climate Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Vulnerability (drought) Atmospheric Research Future climate - no adaptation Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Vulnerability (drought) Atmospheric Research Future climate with adaptation Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Adaptation Planning horizon Vulnerability (drought) Policy Horizon Atmospheric Research Thresholds A non-linear change in a measure or system, signalling a physical or behavioural change Climate related thresholds are used to mark a level of hazard Atmospheric Research Thresholds Biophysical Behavioural • • • • • • • • • • Tropical cyclone Coral bleaching ENSO event Island formation Island removal Legal/regulatory Profit/loss Cultural Agricultural Critical Atmospheric Research Thresholds • Link socio-economic criteria with biophysical criteria through a value judgement • Provide a fixed point against which to measure climate uncertainty • Directly link a particular impact to climatic variables • Introduce criteria as defined by stakeholders into an impact assessment Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds A level considered to represent an unacceptable degree of harm This is a value judgement and may be decided by stakeholders, be a legal requirement, a safety requirement, a management threshold etc Atmospheric Research Metrics for measuring costs • • • • • Monetary losses (gains) Loss of life Change in quality of life Species and habitat loss Distributional equity Atmospheric Research What is a risk? Atmospheric Research What is a risk? Two uses 1. In general language 2. A specific operational meaning Atmospheric Research Characterising risk UNEP definition risk = hazard + vulnerability vulnerability = exposure + susceptibility to loss risk = f(hazard,likelihood) Atmospheric Research Uncertainty Uncertainty and probability can be expressed in two ways: 1. Return period / frequency-based 2. Single event Atmospheric Research Return period / frequency-based probability Recurrent event Where a continuous variable reaches a critical level, or threshold. Eg. Extreme temperature (max & min), Extreme rainfall, THI >72, >78, 1 in 100 year flood Discrete event An event caused by a combination of variables (an extreme weather event) Eg. tropical cyclone/hurricane/typhoon, ENSO event Atmospheric Research Single event probability Singular or unique event An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over Atmospheric Research What is the probability of climate change? 1. That it will occur • IPCC (2001) suggests that climate change is occurring with a confidence of 66% to 95% 2. What form will climate change take? Uncertainties are due to: • future rates of greenhouse gas emissions • sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases • regional variations in climate • decadal-scale variability Atmospheric Research Uncertainty explosion global climate sensitivity emission scenarios regional variability range of possible impacts Atmospheric Research CO2 emissions and concentrations Atmospheric Research Simulated global warming: A2 Global warming Atmospheric Research Mean sea level in the 20th century Church et al. (2001) Atmospheric Research Sea level rise projections for one emission scenario (IS92a) Church et al. (2001) Atmospheric Research SRES sea level rise to 2100 Atmospheric Research Placing thresholds within scenario uncertainty A B global climate sensitivity emission scenarios regional variability range of possible impacts Atmospheric Research Impact thresholds 4.0 Global Warming (°C) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Threshold A 1.5 1.0 0.5 Threshold B 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Atmospheric Research Complex system undergoing change Vulnerable state •M3 •M1 •M4 •M2 Pre-adapted state Atmospheric Research Probabilistic structure of climate uncertainties Variable(s) Critical threshold Critical threshold Time Atmospheric Research Linking key climatic variables to impacts Climate variable Impacted activity Performance criteria Atmospheric Research Production effects THI between 72 and 78 mild stress no stress THI between 79 and 88 moderate stress mild stress Atmospheric Research Coral bleaching • Caused by SST above a threshold • Expels xosanthellae algae • Severity related to days above bleaching threshold • Corals may recover or die Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds Macquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events Atmospheric Research P and Ep changes for Macquarie catchment Change for 1ºC global warming (%) 16.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0 -16.0 J F M A M J Evaporation (Ep) J A S O N D Rainfall (P) In change per degree global warming Atmospheric Research Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows - historical climate and 1996 rules 100 Flow (Gl x 10) 80 1,000,000 60 40 100,000 20 10,000 1890 Irrigation allocation (%) 10,000,000 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Year Allocations Marshes Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (irrigation) Sequences below threshold (years) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of total years below threshold +5% Change in mean average allocation 0 -10% -15% -30% -40% 1 1 -45% 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 6 12 1 2 2 4 5 7 38 50 2 1 5 10 1 4 13 2 1 6 11 22 23 34 1 4 1 6 4 1 5 1 2 4 58 64 Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (bird breeding) Sequences below threshold (years) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of total years below threshold +5% 0 Change in MAF -10% -15% -30% 1 1 1 1 1 1 -40% 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 -50% 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 4 4 1 2 1 7 3 1 2 3 4 7 1 3 4 2 5 2 4 3 2 3 40 45 52 56 63 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 71 79 Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Probabilities of flow changes climate view 15 -40 -30 -20 Cumulative Probability (%) -10 <100 0 10 <95 <90 5 10 <80 <70 0 20 <60 <50 -5 -10 -5 0 5 Rainfall change (%) 10 10 Dam inflow change (%) Atmospheric Research Probabilities of flow changes impacts view Range of possible outcomes Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2030 DDR N or m a l FD R -10 -20 -30 C um u la tiv e P rob ability 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 10 0 -40 C ha nge in sup ply (% ) B u r ren d on g M a rsh es Irr ig ation Atmospheric Research Characterising risk The standard “7 step method” of impact assessment progresses from climate to impacts to adaptation. This infers that we must predict the likeliest climate before we can predict the likeliest impacts? Agree or disagree? Atmospheric Research Characterising risk There is another way. Impacts = function(Gw) Impacts = function(Gw,t,p) p(impacts) = no. of scenarios < threshold = risk Atmospheric Research Characterising the risk of global warming 5.8ºC Least likely Scenario 2 Scenario 6 Risks to Large Negative Net Higher Many Increase for most Negative regions in all metrics Scenario 1 Scenario 5 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 1.4ºC Markets + and - Most likely 0ºC Warming | Risk Negative for some Risks to Some Increase regions I I II III IV V II III Most people worse off Very low IV V Risks to unique and threatened systems Risks from extreme climate events Distribution of impacts Aggregate impacts Risks from large-scale discontinuities Atmospheric Research 6 5 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 Frequency (%) 5 Probability of threshold exceedance 6 Global warming (°C) Global warming (°C) Characterising the risk of global warming 0 50 100 Frequency (%) Increasing likelihood of global warming Atmospheric Research Characterising the risk of global warming 5 Global warming (°C) Probability of threshold exceedance 6 Risks to Large Negative Net Higher Many Increase for most Negative regions in all metrics 4 3 Markets + and - 2 1 Negative for some Risks to Some Increase regions 0 0 50 Frequency (%) Most people worse off Very low IV V 100 I I II III IV V II III Risks to unique and threatened systems Risks from extreme climate events Distribution of impacts Aggregate impacts Risks from large-scale discontinuities Atmospheric Research Long-term planning Short-term policy response 1. Enhance adaptive capacity so that the current coping range expands, reducing present vulnerability. 2. Develop this capacity in such a way that the longer-term risks to climate change are also reduced. Atmospheric Research Basic principles • Pay greater attention to recent climate experience. Link climate, impacts and outcomes to describe the coping range. • Address adaptation to climate variability and extremes as part of reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change. • Assess risk according to how far climate change, in conjunction with other drivers of change, may drive activities beyond their coping range. • Focus on present and future vulnerability to ground future adaptation policy development in present-day experience. • Consider current development policies and proposed future activities and investments, especially those that may increase vulnerability. Atmospheric Research