Download 1950-2100

Status of the
RCM climate change simulations
ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM
ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM
Max 3-day precip (mm) MPIM RCM and ECA Data
Evaluation of RCM simulations with HOAPS satellite data
Biases of all ERA40 and GCM driven RCM simulations over sea investigated – see poster 27
Liquid + ice water, water vapour, precipitation, net longwave radiation, sensible and latent heat flux.
All results soon on RT3 webpage
From RT3:
●
Validated set of RCMs
●
Weights for RCMs
●
Suggestions how to use the weights for climate
change runs
RT2B1 GCM-RCM Matrix
Global model
Regional
METO-HC
model
METO-HC 1950-2100***
MPIMET
CNRM
DMI
ETH
1950-2050
KNMI
ICTP
SMHI
UCLM
C4I
MPIMET
IPSL
CNRM
NERSC
CGCM3
1950-2100
1950-2100 1950-2050*
1950-2050*
1950-2100
1950-2100
1950-2050*
1950-2050*
(50km)
1950-2050
1950-2050*
1950-2100*
(A2)
Total
number
4
2
1
2
1
1
1
1950-2050
1950-2100
1950-2100
GKSS**
1950-2050*
Met.No**
1950-2050*
CHMI**
1950-2050*
OURANOS**
1950-2050*
Total (19507
7
2
3
2
1
2050)
*: non-contractual runs
**: affiliated partners without obligations
***: 3 simulations with the perturbed physics METO-HC GCM
3
1
2
1
1
1
1
22
Status of obligatory 25km scenario simulations
Institute
Runs completed resp.
expected date
Runs transferred to the
RCM database resp.
expected date
METO-HC
MPI-M
HC pert. phys. (3 runs): completed
MPI-M Forcing:?
MPI-M Forcing: completed
Transferred
End 2008 (latest Aug. 2009)
Transferred
CNRM
Completed
Transferred
DMI
CNRM Forcing:?
Partly
ETH
Completed
Transferred
KNMI
Completed
Transferred
ICTP
Completed
Transferred
SMHI
NERSC Forcing: Completed
?
UCLM
Completed
Transferred
The RT2B1 Quick-Look Analysis
Objectives of the ”Quick look analysis”:



To monitor the scenario simulations progress and quality of the
RT2B RCM scenario simulations
To provide very fast first information on the results of the RCM
scenarios
The quick look analysis is focusing on trends and variability
Variables:
Areas:
2m Temperature, Precipitation, Evaporation
8 Prudence Regions
Yearly and Seasonal means
Annual cycle for each decade
The „Quick-Look“ Analysis has recently been extended:
 Separate land and water
 driving GCM‘s
 Inclusion of the gridded RT5 observational dataset
Plots on the ENSEMBLES RT3 webpage will be updated soon!
MPIM RCM, T and P changes for DJF
MPIM RCM, T and P changes for JJA
JJA mean warming wrt 1961-1990
4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I
IAC ETH
8 PRU RCMs
Erich Fischer (2008)
Daily temperature variability in JJA wrt 1961-1990
4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I
IAC ETH
8 PRU RCMs
Erich Fischer (2008)
JJA diurnal temperature range wrt 1961-1990
4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I
IAC ETH
8 PRU RCMs
Erich Fischer (2008)
From RT2B1:

Set of transient simulations for SRES A1B scenario for
1950 to 2050 (22), some extended until 2100 (10)

Data at DMI data base
In RT2B:

From RT2B1 and RT3:
matrix with RCM data and RCM weights
available (incl suggestion for their use)

Joint pdfs will be calculated for use in RT6 …

Assessment of impacts through eg the
calculation of indices
Assessment of changes in climate, extremes
and associated sectoral impacts using high
resolution regional climate model scenarios for
the Eastern Mediterranean
Giannakopoulos C.(1), E. Kostopoulou(1),
K.Tolika(2), C.Anagnostopoulou(2),
P.Maheras(2), K.Tziotziou(1)
(1) Institute for Environmental Research and
Sustainable Development, National Observatory of
Athens, Greece
(2) Department of Meteorology and Climatology,
School of Geology, Aristotle University of
Thessaloniki, Greece
Method
 Within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES
project several RCMs runs have been produced at a high
horizontal resolution (25km).
 The control run represents the base period 1961-1990
and is used here as reference for comparison with future
predictions for periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 based on
A1B SRES scenario
Aim is to examine climatic changes in both mean
(temperature, precipitation) and extremes (number of heat
wave days, number of tropical nights, drought length) in
order to identify areas that are likely to undergo large
amount of climate change
Summer Maximum temperatures,
KNMI RCM
In summer, maximum temperatures increase by 1.8-2.2oCfor
the 2021-2050 simulation and by 4-6oCfor 2071-2100
Greece and North Africa will have a more intense heating
during 2021-2050 whereas Turkey will have equally intense
heating during both periods
No of tropical nights : Tmin>20oC
KNMI RCM
Tropical nights increase more in costal areas
1-2 more months with warm nights around the islands and
North Africa for 2021-2050
2.5-3 more months with warm nights around the islands and
North Africa for 2021-2050
Dry spell length
KNMI RCM
for the 2021-2050 simulation increases of about 7% (of about
10 days more) are apparent
for the 2071-2100 the increase varies between 12% (about 15
days more) in the east part and 25% (about 1 month more) in
the west part of the island.