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Transcript
Arctic Climates and Environments:
The 1ACE Project
1ACE
aims
to
understand
natural
and
anthropogenic changes in the biosphere and
climate of the Arctic and northern circumpolar
regions, using a combination of modelling tools
and observations that draws on expertise, data,
equipment and infrastructure uniquely available
at the WUN nodes.
Why focus on the Arctic ?

uniquely exposed to climate change because of
powerful positive feedbacks between sea-surface
conditions, ecosystems and the atmosphere. Only in the
Arctic is it possible to examine all the factors involved in
determining climate change
Sea Ice
Ice-albedo (ice-temperature) feedback [Positive]
Ice dynamical feedback [Cooling]
Vegetation
Vegetation-albedo feedback (forest/tundra) [Positive]
Polar-Mid Latitude biome shifts (forest/grassland) [Negative]
Why focus on the Arctic ?

Already experiencing rapid changes (e.g.
vegetation, sea ice)
NDVI 20-year
Mean
NDVI Change from
1980s to 1990s
Wang and Overland (2003)
Why focus on the Arctic ?

Has experienced
large and rapid
changes in the recent
geological past (e.g.
vegetation change)
Why another Arctic initiative?
• Existing organisations either set agendas internationally or fund nationally –
there are no frameworks to support a coherent international research programme
• Substantive progress in understanding the complex interelated climate
systems active in the Arctic will require a breadth and depth of resources not
present in a single country let alone a single university
•Geographical and historical interests mean that expertise, data and
infrastructure is distributed across many countries
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IPY: International Polar Year
AC: Arctic Council
ISAC: International Arctic Science Committee
FARO: Forum of Arctic Research Operations
AOSB: Arctic Ocean Science Board
ACSYS: Arctic Climate System Study
CLiC: Climate and Cryosphere Project
ICARP: International Conference for Arctic Research Planning
ACIA: Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (AC + ISAC)
SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change
GLOBEC-ESSAS: Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics-Ecosystem Studies of Sun-Arctic Seas
CLIVAR- :Climate Variability and Predictability
AINA: Arctic Institute of North America
BEST: Bering Ecosystem Study
CEON: Circum-arctic Environmental Observatories Network
ARCSS
ARCSS-HARC: Human Dimensions of the Arctic System
ARCTIC-CHAMP: Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program
ASOF: Arctic/Sub-arctic Ocean Fluxes programme
What distinguishes 1ACE ?
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Not a programme or agenda-setting
initiative → definite & concrete research
project demanding interactions
Not limited involvement activity → Multinational (particularly linking US-EuropeChina, but with remit to involve the best)
Expertise → together the WUN nodes
have the critical mass to carry out such a
project → synergy
1ACE Strategy
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coherent multi- and inter-disciplinary
programmes based in centres of excellence
Use IT mediated approaches to support
sustained collaboration at a distance
Linking interdisciplinary academic communities
across themes within foci
Particular benefits from bringing modellers and
observationalists together
Bring together disparate information & resources
located in many countries
incorporate modern process understanding
test in the past before applying to the future
Arctic Climates and Environments
Modern observations
process studies
distribution maps
time-series of key
surface and
atmosphere variables
flux measurements
→
Modelling priorities
clouds
sea ice
snow-veg interactions
PFTs
evapotranspiration
fire and emissions
wetlands
sulphur cycle
land hydrology
↓
Simulations
historical period
palaeo
future
↓
GOAL:
Alternative futures
and impacts
↓
GOAL: Understanding
recent climate and
environmental changes
←
Palaeo observations
ice sheet extent/height
vegetation patterns
wetland
extent/volume
surface hydrology
sediment transfers
Improving modelling capability.
The ultimate goal of this stream is to produce a fully-coupled earth system
model which simulates all the key biogeochemical cycles. In order to
improve our ability to simulate high-latitude climates, there are a number of
areas which should be prioritised. These include:
Clouds
Dynamic sea-ice
Snow-vegetation interactions
Testing simulated evapotranspiration against flux measurements
Better representation of plant functional types (PFTs) in vegetation
dynamics
Fire and fire-related emissions
Incorporation of wetland PFTs and simulation of wetland extent and
dynamics
Terrestrial emissions of trace gases & aerosols
Cloud-chemistry interactions
Sulphur cycle and production of DMS
Improvement of land hydrology, both with respect to linkages with
vegetation and land-ocean transfers of water and sediment
Observations of the Modern Environment
Modern observations are required for two purposes, (a) guiding the
development of model parameterisations and (b) model testing. In some
cases, the requisite data could be obtained through remote-sensing. In
other cases, information from individual field studies is required and,
despite the wealth of data being collected, efforts will be required to
synthesise these data.
The main priorities for modern data collection are:
Maps of vegetation, wetland extent, permafrost extent and fire
incidence/extent based on remote-sensing
Time-series of key surface and atmospheric variables
Synthesis/analysis of existing flux measurements (including CO2 and
CH4) from the arctic/boreal zone
Process studies for key components, including sea-ice processes,
marine boundary layer chemistry (including arctic haze), snowpack
biophysics and biochemistry, controls on gas emissions from wetlands,
arctic physiology, arctic ecology (including refugia and migration issues)
Organisational structure
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Foci = research area that (potentially) cuts across
streams
Within each focus, we will identify more specific research
topics
Two types of research topic: Fast Track Initiative and
Medium Track Initiative
FTI = concrete results achievable within 2-3 years (proof
of concept that this collaboraion yields results)
MTI = research expected to advance the science over 310 yr framework
Each focus, each FTI and each MIT will have a
coordinator, who will be responsible for development
Modern observations
Modelling
Palaeo-observations
ESModelling of the Arctic
S
T
R
E
A
M
S
Land-ocean interactions
Climate-chemistry interactions
Climate-cryosphere interactions
Climate-biosphere interactions
Climates and Environments of Deep Time
FOCI
Characteristics of an FTI, MTI
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Fundamental challenge in Arctic science
Can be addressed by pooling resources
and expertise across >2-3 WUN nodes
Will ultimately integrate with other 1ACE
initiatives to form a coherent picture
Can identify a willing and enthusiastic
coordinator who will take the lead in
planning the science and funding activities
EXAMPLE: CLIMATECHEMISTRY FOCUS
Coordinator
Don Wuebbles
UIUC
FTI
FTI
Climate change
and atmospheric
chemistry
MTI
MTI
MTI
MTI
Focus: Climate-chemistry interactions

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Proposed FTI: simulating emissions from
snowpack
Proposed MTI: development of biospheric
emissions schemes for coupling with
atmospheric chemistry models
Proposed MTI: LGM methane drawdown
(also feeds into palaeo-focus)
EXAMPLE: CLIMATECHEMISTRY FOCUS
Coordinator
Don Wuebbles
UIUC
FTI: Snow emissions
FTI
Climate change
and atmospheric
chemistry
MIT: biospheric
emissions
MTI
MIT: LGM drawdown
MTI
FTI: Snowpack emissions
modelling
Penn State
Alley/Pollard
Cryosphere
Observations &
modelling
Coordinators
Valdes
(Bristol)
Snowpack
emissions
FTI
Oslo
Ivar Isaksen
Atmospheric chem
modelling
Bristol
Snowpack modelling
Remote sensing
Atmospheric chemistry
Biospheric emissions
External partner
Essery
(Aberystwyth)
External partner
Hadley Centre
Other WUN node
Focus: Biosphere-climate interactions

Proposed FTI: palaeovegetation changes
through last glacial-interglacial cycle
(this also feeds into ESModelling through validation)


Proposed MTI: improved treatment of
snow-covered vegetation in DGVMs/ESMs
Proposed MTI: veg dynamics & feedbacks
FTI: Palaeovegetation
changes through the last
glacial-interglacial cycle
Coordinator
Mary Edwards
(Southampton)
Madison
Jack Williams
Pollen data, ENA
UIUC
Feng Sheng Hu
Arctic ecology
Seattle
Linda Brubaker
Pollen data, Alaska
Palaeovegetation
FTI
Bristol
Sandy Harrison
Database & mapping
Utrecht
Andy Lotter
Pollen data, EPD
External partner
Wyoming
(Steve Jackson)
Macrofossils, NAm
External partner
Oxford (Kathy Willis)
Macrofossils, Eurasia
Other WUN nodes
External partner
USGS (Thompson)
Macrofossils, NAm
Modern observations
Modelling
Palaeo-observations
Steered by: Callaghan
ESModelling of the Arctic
S
T
R
E
A
M
S
Land-ocean interactions
Oxygen
Keeling
Climate-chemistry interactions
Wuebbles
Climate-cryosphere interactions
Climate-biosphere interactions
MTI: freshwater
& THC
Sheffiled lead ??
Snow
Emissions
Valdes
IMP
Payne
Palaeoveg
Edwards
Palaeohosing
Schlesinger
Biospheric emissions
Prentice
FOCI
LGM drawdown
Harrison
Ice cap sensitivity (AICA)
Wadham
MTI: snow-veg
feedback
Climates & Environments of Deep Time
Brinkhuis
MTI:Coastal ocean
MTI: dynamics
& feedbacks
MTI:Deeptime maps
Francis
How are we making this happen ?
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Jan-April: ACCESS grid or video-conferences on FTI & MTI
Website to collate resources and provide virtual working
environment
Seedcorn money being sought now for FTI activities
Kick-off meeting in May 2005
Use of WUN GEP programme for faculty/student exchange
Dialogue with funders – public, foundation and corporate
Begin to raise profile through internal and external publicity
Planned virtual meetings
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Thursday 6th January
Thursday 13th January
Tuesday 1st February
Tuesday 8th February
Thursday 10th February
Thursday 24th February
Thursday 10th March
Thursday 17th March
Thursday 31st March
Thursday 14th April
Thursday 21st April
Thursday 28th April
Mace Head FTI
Snow emissions FTI
Planning Committee for Kick-off Meeting
Palaeovegetation FTI
Focus on Climate-chemistry interactions
Focus on Deeptime
Palaeohosing MTI
Focus on climate-biosphere interactions
Focus on climate-cryosphere interactions
Focus on land-ocean interactions
Focus on Earth System modeling
Planning Committee for Kick-off Meeting