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Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point? Dr Paul Marshall Director – Climate Change Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Healthy reef Bleached reef Damaged reef Degraded reef Is management futile? 2009 Reef condition Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario 1950 2000 2050 2100 Is management futile? 2009 Reef condition Pre-climate change RESILIENCE Best-case scenario Worst-case scenario 1950 2000 2050 2100 A framework for management action 1. Understand problem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 2. Identify strategies for reducing risk Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors 3. Prioritise adaptation activities Climate Change Adaptation Plan 4. Build resilience Implementation Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment Introduction Vulnerability of species and species groups Vulnerability of GBR habitats Enabling management The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Climate and climate change on the GBR Oceanography and climate change Resilience, climate change & the GBR Marine microbes Plankton Macroalgae Seagrasses Mangroves & tidal wetlands Reef-building corals Benthic invertebrates Fishes Sharks & Rays Seabirds Marine reptiles Marine mammals Coral reefs Pelagic systems Coasts and estuaries Islands and cays Geomorphological features Palaeoecology Industries and communities Vulnerability & management implications Prioritising management Humans Prioritising management Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Resilience Analysis (corals) Marshall & Schuttenberg 2007 New science Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold Wooldridge and Done, 2009 Adaptation Plan Adapting management 1. Manage for process, not just state • • • • Restore water quality Protect key functional groups Protect refugia/critical habitats Restore resilience of important components Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com. Adapting management 2. Effectively prioritise effort & resources • • • Urgency Importance Feasibility Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Cost Values Management Priority Adapting management 3. Manage for social-ecological resilience • Resource-dependency • Climate change as a common enemy • Converting stakeholders to champions Key messages 1. GHGs must be stabilised 2. Management has never been more important 3. Management needs to adapt • Resilience focus • Triage • Partnerships 4. Climate change is an opportunity, too