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Adviser & Head Climate Change Programme, Department of Science & Technology Email: [email protected] Presentation Outline Observed Trend in the frequency of extreme weather events over the globe and India Extreme Weather Events and their linkage with CC- Are freak events linked to CC? How can we reduce the impact of Extreme Weather Events in the Changing Climate? Summary Observed Global Trend in the frequency of Extreme Weather events and Sea Level Rise Annual Frequency of Natural Disasters 1950 – 2005 16 Flood Storm Earthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption 14 Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Recent Increasing Trends in Frequency of Natural Hazards 350 350 250 250 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 0 1996 50 1994 100 1992 350 1990 150 1988 200 1986 250 1984 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 Drought Extreme Heat Events 300 1982 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 1980 200 Floods 300 Windstorms 300 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 Changes in Sea Level since 1850 and Projection (IPCC 4thAR, WGI, Paris, 5.2.2007) Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr Bangladesh is projected to lose about 16% of its land area with a sea level rise of 1.5 m Sea-Water Inundation Example: Maldives Area: 115 square miles Population: 143,000 Highest point: 20 ft above sea level Climate Change induced Sea Level Rise may inundate some of the islands of Maldives Observed Trend in the frequency of Extreme Weather events and Sea Level Rise over India Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Low & Moderate events Heavy events (>10cm) V. Heavy events (>15cm) Goswami et al., Science, Dec., 2006 Number of Flash Flood Events in India (1980-2006) Increasing Trend in Flash Flood Events during past 25 years Total Number of Flood Events in India (1980-2006) Decreasing Trend in Total Flood Events during past 25 years Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006 12 y = -0.0183x + 6.3291 R2 = 0.1031 10 6 4 2 YE A R S 2006 2001 1996 1991 1986 1981 1976 1971 1966 1961 1956 1951 1946 1941 1936 1931 1926 1921 1916 1911 1906 1901 1896 0 1891 FREQUENCY 8 Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Disturbances over India during past 120 years (18912009) Increasing Frequency of Total Number of Low Pressure Areas over India during past 123 years (18882009) Sea Level RiseObservations • • Sea-levels increase by ~ 1.3 mm/year Recent ~3.1 mm/year Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected Extreme Events and their linkage with Climate Change Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events • Climate Change could impact frequency and severity of events on long term and not year to year • No clear long term trend is observed in this regard but a number of regions have reported increase in variability. • Events which are directly connected to temperature change have shown positive trends Extreme Events which are directly and indirectly linked to CC • Those extreme events which are directly linked to the warming are likely to increase- Heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall (floods), etc. • Those indirectly related are still doubtful to have been impacted by climate changeIncrease in number/intensity of cyclones, tornadoes, local severe storms, etc. Are Freak Extreme Events linked to Climate Change? Cyclone Phailin: Observed Track Microwave Imagery of Cyclone Phailin EYE EYE WALL Cloud Bands Doppler Radar Imagery of Cyclone Phailin Main Causes of Uttarakhand (Kedarnath) Deluge June 2013 An unconfirmed cloudburst event, Glacier and moraine outbursts, Steep slopes associated with the terrain, Sudden gushing of water and debris into the valley regions, Flooding of rivers on account of incessant rain, Exceeding of carrying capacity of rivers, Major landslides, Panic reactions of people High Resolution Satellite Imagery of Uttarakhand Disaster Flow from Glacier (2) overtopping of the moraine barrier- resulting in release of impounded water (1) Blocked basin created by Moraine-a pool of water was built up (4) Main Channel of Flow (5) Kedarnath Town struck by flow from 2 channels Kedarnath (3) Trifurcation of Flow Uttarakhand Disaster vs Cyclone Phailin Uttarakhand Phailin Wx System Size Prediction Accuracy Prediction time Lead time for Disaster management Cloud Burst 50 km Poor Cyclone 1000km Very Good 6-12 hrs in advance 3-4 hrs 5-6 days in advance 3-4 days Key Factors for High Impact of Extreme Events in Developing Countries Development /Globalization Population Increase Increase in Extreme Events Viewing world through population density India is one among few countries having very high density of population Impact of Climate Change on Developing Countries like India • Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors • Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge • Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. How can we reduce the impact of Extreme Weather Events in the Changing Climate? VULNERABILITY MAPPING of areas with present and projected scenarios of climate change in relation to extreme events DEVELOPING CAPACITIES TO ADAPT climate change in highly vulnerable regions INCREASING CAPABILITY TO DETECT AND PREDICT extreme events with greater accuracy and longer lead time. Deploying a MULTI-HAZARD INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM PUBLIC AWARENESS about possible impact of climate change and ways & means to cope up Multi-layered Data Base Management and Modeling Data level Country State Model to analyze and predict impact of events to desired level District Taluk Block Village Multiple Scenario based on data level & event Integrated Disaster Management Concept Disaster Advanced & Dense Observational Network Observation & Monitoring Prediction Prediction models High resolution Data assimilation High speed computer Impact Assessment Decision Support System Dissemination of Early Warnings Feedback Location specific administrative Actions State Gov Village level data bank Decision type Sociological Geo-political Economical Administrative Security Law & Order Data type Geographic Demographic Geo-technical Geological Topographical Meteorological Seismological Communication system Wide Area network-upto village level Disaster proof-satellite based-2 way Steps Towards Enhancing Capability to Detect and Predict Extreme Events and Dissemination of Warnings • Met. Modernization Plan -Seamless system of Weather Observations and Prediction • Multi-Hazard Integrated Decision Support System • Sub-District level agro-advisory system • Outreach- a 24x7 Dedicated Weather Channel …thank you