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Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in million metric tons of carbon) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1750 from solid fuel burning from liquid fuel burning from gas fuel burning from cement production from gas flaring 1800 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 1850 Year 1900 1950 2000 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob_2009.html Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in million metric tons of carbon) 9000 Total emissions 6000 3000 0 1750 1800 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob_2009.html Global Carbon Cycle (in billions metric tons carbon) Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations 391.5 ppmv in 2011 400 (in ppmv) 375 350 325 300 275 ppmv in preindustrial time 275 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/ Global Carbon Emissions: present & future (in millions metric tons of carbon equivalent) Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The Greenhouse effect A SUN Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 T M O S P H E R E The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Rise in the concentration of four GHGs Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global Warming The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2oC during the past 100 centuries. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change. Consequences………… Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Consequences………… World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea. • Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands. • Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. • The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/ Consequences………… • death of coral reefs • fewer cubs for polar bears • spread of dengue and other diseases • heavy rains & severe draughts • fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes • changed rainfall patterns • warming and aridity • loss of biodiversity Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Rate of increase of CO2 concentration (in ppmv/year) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 1.8 ppmv/year in 2011 0.5 0 1960 1970 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/ CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) 500 475 450 actual value at 1.0 ppmv/year at 1.5 ppmv/year at 2.5 ppmv/year 425 400 global temperature may be up by 2oC 375 350 2000 2010 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2017, and it is probable that the global temperature o would go up by 2 C (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF). -Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2. It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) 600 550 500 actual value at 1.0 ppmv/year at 1.8 ppmv/year at 2.5 ppmv/year 450 We are lucky. Are we? 400 350 2000 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 2025 2050 Year 2075 2100 U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): Computer models of future CO2 emissions and controls on atmospheric CO2 have been developed by CCSP. These models indicate that projected annual global emissions during the next century would need to be reduced by more than 75% in order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at about 550 ppm. According to the CCSP, stabilizing atmospheric CO2 would "require a transformation of the global energy system, including reductions in the demand for energy, and changes in the mix of energy technology and fuels." Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/ Discussion Point 5: Should we place a upper sealing limit on the global CO2 emissions to ensure sustainable development? Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sustainable Limit Calculations Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). Prof. R. Shanthini Source: updated: 18 Nov 2012 Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 2. Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year, which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per person per year. Prof. R. Shanthini Source: updated: 18 Nov 2012 Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 10 9 8 7 6 USA 5 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HDI (defined on next page)2005 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 10 9 8 7 6 5 Singapore 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 USA Norway 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 HDI (defined on next page)2005 1 Iceland Japan Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI) HDI = LI 3 + 2 EI (Education Index) = 3 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 + GDPI 3 Life Expectancy - 25 85 - 25 LI (Life Index) = GDPI (GDP Index) = EI 3 Adult Literacy 1 School Enrollment + 100 3 100 ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) ln(40000) - ln(100) (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 HDI > 0.8 10 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) 9 8 7 6 USA 5 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HDI 2005 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm Discussion Point 6: How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit? Take 10 mins. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this? Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU) 175 Petroleum 150 Coal 125 100 Dry Natural Gas 75 Hydroelectric Power 50 25 0 1980 Nuclear Electric Power 1985 1990 1995 Year Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 2000 2005 Electric Power from Renewables http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 50% Petroleum 40% Coal 30% Dry Natural Gas 20% Hydroelectric Power 10% 0% 1980 Nuclear Electric Power 1985 1990 1995 Year Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 2000 2005 Electric Power from Renewables http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Fossil fuels 50% Hydroelectric Power 40% Nuclear Electric Power 30% Electric Power from Renewables 20% 10% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 8% 7% 6% 5% Hydroelectric Power 4% Nuclear Electric Power 3% Electric Power from Renewables 2% 1% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profitoriented energy markets. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Projection of World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 100% Coal 80% Oil 60% Natural gas 40% Nuclear 20% Renewable energy 0% 2008 Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 2015 2020 2025 Year 2030 2035 United States Energy Information Administration, 2011 Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population More people More pollution Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Electricity use in 2006 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income CO2 (metric tons per capita) Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2005 International $) in 2005 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income CO2 (metric tons per capita) Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2005 International $) in 2005 CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Controversial since permanent storage of Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 CO2 underground is not guaranteed Controversial since the impacts on marine Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 ecosystem (very fragile) are not known Advantage Problems Oil and Gas Reservoirs • Well-characterized volume • Known seal • Potential fuel recovery to offset cost • Smallest capacity (~25 gigatons carbon) • Limited in number • Requires infrastructure to transport CO2 Formations Containing Saline Water • Large capacity (~250 to 900 gigatons of carbon) • Wide distribution • Poorly characterized • Greatest geologic uncertainty • Unknown seal effectiveness Unmineable • Adjacent to many large Coal Beds power plants (CO2 source) • Potential fuel (methane) recovery to offset cost Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 • Poorly characterized • Difficult to define "unmineable" coal • Potential coal resources may be rendered unusable http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/ Environmental issues: Potential for mobilization of ground-water contaminants; leakage of CO2 and CO2-saturated saline water; induced seismicity Regulatory issues: Determination of rules affecting injection wells; multiple regulatory jurisdictions (State, Federal, local); post-injection ownership and liability Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/ U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): The CCSP models illustrate the widely held view that sequestration is necessary but insufficient to control atmospheric CO2. Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is likely to require substantial changes in energy sources and use as well as carbon management. Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/ Discussion Point 7: What could you do to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit as an engineer? Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Take 10 mins. Food for thought: What are the Engineering Challenges to sustainability? Global climate change Energy production and use Food production Resources depletion Toxics in the environment Making sustainable lifestyles attractive Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 Base for your CP551 project “Scientists study the world as it is, engineers create the world that never has been.” - Theodore von Karman Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 “Scientists study the world as it is, engineers create the world that never has been.” - Theodore von Karman “sustainable engineering is about taking the world back to where it had been, while making it more civilized than it was then.” - shanthini Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012 The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics Prof. R. Shanthini updated: 18 Nov 2012