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Download What We Know About Climate Change and How We Know It
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Question 1 a) Two Cornell Trustees b) Professional Engineering College Grad Students c) The Mythbusters d) David Skorton and Hunter Rawlings Who are these guys??? Question 2 What does this have to do with State of the Planet ?? Answer….. Today’s Lecture: Infamous Climate Change Myths BUSTED! Or….. How to dazzle your climate change skeptic friends with science Myth 1 There’s not enough Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere to matter. The Truth Argon Oxygen CO2 Nitrogen But….Size doesn’t matter! Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide 4.3 µm Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide 15 µm Water Vapor Water Vapor Absorbed Energy is Trapped Without an Atmosphere 4. Remaining “heat” lost to space Earth receives 240 Wm-2 from sun. Earth must lose 240 Wm-2 to space. E = sT4 240 = 5.7x10-8 T4 2. Earth absorbs sunlight and 2. Radiates it as “heat” T = -18ºC = 0°F With an Atmosphere 4. Remaining “heat” lost to space Earth receives 168 Wm-2 from sun. Earth also receives 222 Wm-2 from the atmosphere. E = sT4 168 + 222 = 5.7x10-8 T4 2. Earth absorbs sunlight and 2. Radiates it as “heat” T = 15ºC = 59°F Doubling Carbon Dioxide Less loss Atmosphere absorbs 4 Wm-2 more radiation Changes: 1) Amount of radiation received from atmosphere 2) Temperature Little Effect More absorbed and 2. Earth absorbs sunlight and returned 2. Radiates it as “heat” Temperature increase Can Compute: DT = 0.3DF + feedbacks 1.2°C = 0.3 x 4 Wm-2 Myth 2 Water vapor is a more important GHG than Carbon Dioxide The Earth’s Climate System Components of the System Interact CO2 increases Earth warms Atmospheric Water Vapor Increases Positive Feedback Evaporation Increases Components of the System Interact CO2 increases Earth warms Less Solar Energy Reflected (more than 240 W m-2 received) Ice Melts Positive Feedback Components of the System Interact CO2 increases Earth warms Clouds Trap Terrestrial Radiation Positive Feedback More Clouds Clouds Reflect Solar Radiation Earth Cools More Evaporation Negative Feedback Myth 3 Carbon Dioxide will be removed from the atmosphere naturally Carbon Cycle 7 100 100 90 0.1 2 Climate Carbon Feedback Feedbacks Drive Ice Ages Slight Orbital Changes Decrease Solar Received N.H. Cools Earth Cools CO2 Declines More Ice N.H. Cools more Why does CO2 decline when it’s cold? Which drink is flat? a) b) Myth 1 Revisited Ice Age Not an Ice Age Or a Different movie Dinosaurs No Dinosaurs Myth 5 Climate models are inaccurate A.K.A. You can’t get tomorrow’s weather right, you expect me to believe your prediction for 100 years from now? WEATHER ≠ CLIMATE Typical Climate Model Scale Matters Model Validation & Attribution A Question Choose the best day to swim in Cayuga Lake a) Memorial Day 5/31 Air Temperature 85° b) Labor Day 9/4 Air Temperature 85° Features of the Climate System Different components have different response times • More on this later Internal Forcings • Things like El Nino Myth 6 There is time to avoid negative global warming impacts Magnitude of Response Current Impacts will persist for centuries Emisssions 100 years 1000 years Myth 7 Ah…but what about Ithaca and all those other stations Michael Crichton showed us Ithaca Summer Temperature 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 +1.5°F -2.8°F 72 70 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 What are the chances? 124 years 1/124 0.8% chance for a record What are the chances? 8 years (1997-2004) 8x0.008 = 6.4% Chance of a record What are the chances? All 12 months 0.6412 = 0.00000000000047% Myth 8 The problem is so big, it doesn’t matter what we do Wedges Wedges Increased efficiency • Electric, Transportation, Heating (3 possible wedges) • 1 wedge = 60 mpg cars Switch from coal to natural gas (2 possible wedges, heat and electric) • 1 wedge = 1,400 large coal plant to gas Carbon capture and storage 2 possible wedges, electric and hydrogen) 1 wedge = 800 coal plants 1 wedge = 3500 million tons/year stored Nuclear or hydrogen (2 possible wedges, electric or hydrogen) 1 wedge = doubling of reactors Wedges Wind or hydrogen (1 wedge) 1 wedge = NJ size area Biofuels (1 wedge) 1 wedge = area the size of Germany 2 million windmills Solar electricity (2 wedges electric or hydrogen) 1 wedge = 1/6 of present cropland Natural sinks (1 wedge) Halt deforestation and double rate of forest planting Myth 9 Adaptation will not be required if we choose to mitigate climate change