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Climate Change – International Context
Oxfam New Zealand
Pacific Forum Side Event
7 Sept, 2011
Climate Change – International Context
• UNFCCC – Durban expectations
- Legal form
- Mitigation
- Finance: governance and sources
• UNFCCC - National elements
• Climate Finance - Bunkers
State of play - legal form
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LCA and KP track
KP expires 31 Dec 2012
Likely, KP next phase will be ‘transitional’,
one or more years,
Likely KP rules preserved and docked into
long term framework
Commitments and actions all Parties, (by
2015) while respecting CBDR
State of play for mitigation
Developed country mitigation
IPCC called for 25-40% by 2020, from 1990 levels, legally binding targets.
Bottom up offers, from 1990 levels:
• Norway: 40%
• EU: 30% if others do
• NZ: 10-20% with conditions
• US: stabilisation to -3%
• Total Annex 1: 11-18%
• Oxfam: 40% below 1990, majority of
effort through domestic action
• AOSIS: 45%
State of play for mitigation
Developing country mitigation
15-30% below business-as-usual by 2020. No targets, but actions, supported by
finance and technology from developed countries.
Key issues:
• Nature of ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions’
• Monitoring, reporting and verification
• Carbon markets
• Public finance for mitigation support
• Deforestation
• Responsibilities of China and others
Oxfam: mitigation actions for developing countries,
supported by finance and technology
Expected mitigation pledges show minimum 4Gt gap to
<2ºC trajectory (450ppm)
Low end of pledged ranges
High end of pledged ranges
Durban expectations for mitigation
• Move to top end of current pledges
• Agree scale of gigatonne gap & assessed
effort sharing to close gap
• Close loopholes
• Agree rules eg. MRV, ICA
• Developing Country design NAMAs
• Agree rules for Registry
• Anticipate AR5 due Oct 2014
Durban expectations for finance
• Green Climate Fund – appoint Board
• 2013-2020 finance trajectory to US$100bn/yr
• Scaled up govt budgetary assessed
contributions for developed countries
• Plus sources: FTT, Bunkers, SDR
• MRV
What is likely at Durban?
• Scenarios - multilateral, stumbles along, breakdown
• Legal form - next phase will be ‘transitional’, one or
more years, KP rule preserved and docked into long
term framework
• Mitigation - need for market certainty, push to get as
much certainty on mitigation
• Finance - design Global Green Fund, resistance to
talk about sources (bunkers)
• Friends of Fossil Fuel Reforms
UNFCCC – Developing country
national level
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Mitigation - submit NAMAs to registry
Submit NAPs
Finance – design national/regional governance
Advocate for adaptation and sources eg bunkers
REDD
Ensure gender representation
What are bunkers?
Bunkers
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Most promising source, new, predictable
Growing emissions 2.7% global
Multilateral market based mechanism
Bunker fuel levy, developing countries
compensated,
• US$10bn to GCF
• At Durban, urge IMO to design, provide principles
on no net incidence to developing countries and
GHG savings to be achieved
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