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Climate Change Concerns, Research
Needs and Effort in Pakistan
Dr. Arshad M. Khan
Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, 15 February 2008
Warmest 12 years:
2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003,
2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995,
2000, 1999
Rate of Change (oC per decade)
1850 – 2005
─────────────
0.045
1905 – 2005
─────────────
0.074
1955 – 2005
─────────────
0.128
1980 – 2005
─────────────
0.177
Average Global Temperature OC
1999
─────────────
14.38
2000
1995
..
.
─────────────
─────────────
14.40
14.48
1998
2007
2005
─────────────
─────────────
─────────────
14.57
14.60
14.63
2
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•
•
•
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Some Major Findings of IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007
0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the
last century;
Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0 0 C projected over the 21st
Century;
Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and
decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world
regions;
Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe
cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase
considerably;
Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps,
particularly the Arctic;
Substantial rise in sea level.
3
Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan
 Increased variability of Monsoon;
 Increased risks of floods and droughts;
 Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and
semi-arid region;
 Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture
productivity;
060212/0018
4
Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
 More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers;
 Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs
due to rise in snowline;
 Upstream intrusion of saline water in the
Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral
reefs and breeding grounds of fish;
060212/0020
5
Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change

Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate
sensitive;

Flows in IRS threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers;

Low technological and scientific base and limited access to
knowledge;

Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources
to undertake appropriate adaptation measures.
6
Research Needs of Pakistan

Proper understanding of the past trends of:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Region-wise Climate Change
Changes in flow patterns of IRS
Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events
Recession of Karakoram Glaciers
Degradation of the Indus delta region

Fine resolution projections of climate
change in Pakistan in line with global trends

Scientific assessment of likely future
impacts of climate change on country’s key
sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture

Identification of appropriate adaptation
measures to cope with adverse impacts
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Climate Change Related Work in
Pakistan – An Overview
 1992: IUCN/Env. & Urban Aff. Div., GoP report: “The Pakistan
National Conservation Strategy”,
 1994: ADB report: “Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study
on Global Environmental Issues;
 1998: ADB report: “Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy
(ALGAS)”
 1998: MoEnv., GoP and UNEP report: “Climate Change and
Impact Assessment & Adaptation Strategy for Pakistan”;
 Mid-1990s onwards:
Various studies coordinated by Dr. Amir
Muhammed
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Climate Change Related Work in
Pakistan – An Overview (contd.)
 2002:
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
established;
 2003:
Pakistan’s First National Communication to UNFCCC
by MoEnv., GoP;
 2004:
Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change
established, with GCISC as its Secretariat;
 2005:
PARC/ UNEP/ ICIMOD/ APN/ START report on
Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Pakistan
Himalayas;
 2007:
Briefing of National Planners and Policymakers on
Climate Change research results by GCISC.
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GCISC Activities at a Glance
Capacity Building/
Enhancement
Regional
Climate
Models
Research
and Dissemination
Climate Change
Scenario
Development
Analysis of
Historical Data
Climate Data
Water
Simulation
Models
Assessment of Climate
Change Impact on
Water Resources
Water
Resources
Data
Crop
Simulation
Models
Assessment of Climate
Change Impact on
Agriculture
Agricultural
Data
Identification of
adaptation
measures in
agriculture sector
Identification of
adaptation
measures in
water sector
Dissemination of
Project Outcomes
10
GCISC Approach
for CC Research
Area of GCISC Activities
at Present
Internal driving
forces
Information at
300 km x 300 km level
Regional Climate
Models (RCMs)
Global Climate
Scenarios
Land use &
Topographic data etc.
Super Computer
Anthropogenic
Influences
Adaptation Measures
Watershed Models
Effect on
River inflows
Mesoscale Climate
Models (MMs)
Effects on
Crop Yields
Information at
30 km x 30 km
level
Impact Studies
External driving
forces
Regional Climate
Scenarios
Global Circulation
Models (GCMs)
Crop-growth
Simulation Models
Agriculture
Information at
Sub-km level
Adaptation Measures
Future
Activities
Health
Energy
Biodiversity
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Simulation Models Currently in Use at
GCISC
Regional Climate Models :
• RegCM3 (AS-ICTP, Italy)
• PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK)
• WRF (NCAR, USA)
Watershed Models :
• DHSVM (Univ. of Washington, USA)
• UBC (Univ. of British Columbia, Canada)
• HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers)
Crop Simulation Models :
DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (Univ. of
Georgia, Griffin, USA) comprising several families of models:
• CERES (for cereals)
• CROPGRO (for grain legumes)
• CROPSIM (for root crops)
• Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture)
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Salient Research Results
Obtained by GCISC
13
Climate Change Projections
a)
Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km)
projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2
and A1B scenarios
b)
Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections
by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for
A2 scenario using RCMs: RegCM3 and PRECIS
Base period:
1961 – 1990
Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039
2050s = 2040 – 2069
2080s = 2070 – 2099
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Pakistan and its Northern & Southern Parts
(a)
(b)
(c)
a) Pakistan
b) Northern Pakistan
b) Southern Pakistan
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Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan
For A2 Scenario, based on Ensemble
of 13 GCMs
(Global ∆T = 4.0 °C in 2100)
For A1B Scenario, based on Ensemble
of 17 GCMs
(Global ∆T = 2.8 °C in 2100)
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Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C)
by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario
Pakistan
Northern
Pakistan
Southern
Pakistan
Annual
4.38 ± 0.44
4.67 ± 0.23
4.22 ± 0.18
Summer
4.13 ± 0.26
4.56 ± 0.28
3.90 ± 0.26
Winter
4.47 ± 0.20
4.72 ± 0.24
4.33 ± 0.18
•
Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher
in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
•
Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are
higher in winter than in summer
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Projected Temperature Change (°C) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)
Projected Precipitation Change (%) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)
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Impacts of Climate Change on
Agriculture in Pakistan
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Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate
Change Impact Studies on Agriculture
20
Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season
Length in Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan
Temperature
˚C
(increase
over
baseline)
Growing Season Length (Days)
Northern Pakistan
Southern Pakistan
Mountainous
Region
(Humid)
Sub-Mountainous
Region
(Sub-humid)
Plains
(Semiarid)
Plains
(Arid)
246
161
146
137
1
232
155
140
132
2
221
149
135
127
3
211
144
130
123
4
202
138
125
118
5
194
133
121
113
Baseline
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Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in
different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors
remaining constant)
4500
Northern
Mountainous
(Humid)
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
4000
Northern SubMountainous
(Sub-humid)
3500
3000
Southern Plains
(Semi arid)
2500
Southern Plains
(Arid)
2000
0
1
2
3
Temperature Change ( oC)
4
5
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Effect of increase in CO2 concentration
on wheat yield (other factors remaining
constant)
6500
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
Southern Semiarid Plains
5500
Southern Arid
Plains
4500
Northern Submountainous
region
3500
2500
Northern
Mountainous
Region
1500
350
525
700
875
1050
CO2 Concentration (ppm)
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Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic
zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Base
2020
2050
2080
Northern Mountainous Region
Northern Sub mountainous
Southern Semi-arid Plains
Southern Arid Plains
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Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in
Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Region
% Share in
National
Production
Baseline Yield
(kg ha-1)
Northern
Mountainous
2
Northern Submountainous
% Change in yield in 2085
A2
Scenario
B2
Scenario
2658
+50
+40
9
3933
-11
-11
Southern
Semi arid
Plains
42
4306
-8
-8
Southern Arid
Plains
47
4490
-5
-6
100
4326
-5.7
-6.4
Pakistan
25
Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of
Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Rice yield (kg/ha)
4400
A2 Scenarios
4200
4000
3800
B2 Scenario
3600
3400
3200
3000
1990
2025
2055
2085
Year
Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios
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Impacts of Climate Change on
Water Resources of Pakistan
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UPPER INDUS BASIN at Bisham Qila
Discharge (cumecs)
10000
9000
Observrd flow
8000
Simulated flow
7000
Snow melt runoff
6000
Met Stations: ziarat (3669), yasin (3150)
Glacial contribution
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Date of run (mm/dd/yyyy)
R2
Eff.
Calibration (1999-2004)
Validation (1995-1999)
0.87
0.87
0.86
0.87
9/1/2001
8/1/2001
7/1/2001
6/1/2001
5/1/2001
4/1/2001
3/1/2001
2/1/2001
1/1/2001
12/1/2000
11/1/2000
10/1/2000
0
% Vol. Diff.
0.32
-5.16
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Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB
Flows
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
 Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
Discharge (Cumecs)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Main Results:
Base Runoff
CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt
CCS Glacier melt
1. Annual flows reduced by 15%
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
0
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Study of HKH Glaciers by GCISC
 GCISC has recently agreed to join hands with the
GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements From
Space) project of Southwest Asia Regional Centre,
University at Nebraska Omaha, USA to delineate
the boundaries of various HKH glaciers using
satellite imageries.
 An MoU has been signed.
 GCISC plan to use the above experience to study
expansion/shrinkage behavior of major UIB glaciers,
using time series satellite data.
Major Collaborating National Organizations
1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD
2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA
3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC
4. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech.,
IGIS/NUST
5. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF
6. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR
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Major Collaborating International
Partners
• APN
Asia Pacific Network for Global Change
Research, Japan;
• ASICTP
Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical
Physics, Italy;
• IIASA
Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria;
• GLIMS
Global Land Ice Measurements from
Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA;
• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food
System, UK.
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