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Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan Dr. Arshad M. Khan Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, 15 February 2008 Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999 Rate of Change (oC per decade) 1850 – 2005 ───────────── 0.045 1905 – 2005 ───────────── 0.074 1955 – 2005 ───────────── 0.128 1980 – 2005 ───────────── 0.177 Average Global Temperature OC 1999 ───────────── 14.38 2000 1995 .. . ───────────── ───────────── 14.40 14.48 1998 2007 2005 ───────────── ───────────── ───────────── 14.57 14.60 14.63 2 • • • • • • Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century; Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0 0 C projected over the 21st Century; Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions; Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably; Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic; Substantial rise in sea level. 3 Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan Increased variability of Monsoon; Increased risks of floods and droughts; Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region; Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity; 060212/0018 4 Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.) More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers; Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline; Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish; 060212/0020 5 Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate sensitive; Flows in IRS threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers; Low technological and scientific base and limited access to knowledge; Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources to undertake appropriate adaptation measures. 6 Research Needs of Pakistan Proper understanding of the past trends of: i. ii. iii. iv. v. Region-wise Climate Change Changes in flow patterns of IRS Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events Recession of Karakoram Glaciers Degradation of the Indus delta region Fine resolution projections of climate change in Pakistan in line with global trends Scientific assessment of likely future impacts of climate change on country’s key sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture Identification of appropriate adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts 7 Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview 1992: IUCN/Env. & Urban Aff. Div., GoP report: “The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy”, 1994: ADB report: “Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues; 1998: ADB report: “Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)” 1998: MoEnv., GoP and UNEP report: “Climate Change and Impact Assessment & Adaptation Strategy for Pakistan”; Mid-1990s onwards: Various studies coordinated by Dr. Amir Muhammed 8 Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview (contd.) 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established; 2003: Pakistan’s First National Communication to UNFCCC by MoEnv., GoP; 2004: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat; 2005: PARC/ UNEP/ ICIMOD/ APN/ START report on Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Pakistan Himalayas; 2007: Briefing of National Planners and Policymakers on Climate Change research results by GCISC. 9 GCISC Activities at a Glance Capacity Building/ Enhancement Regional Climate Models Research and Dissemination Climate Change Scenario Development Analysis of Historical Data Climate Data Water Simulation Models Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources Water Resources Data Crop Simulation Models Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Agriculture Agricultural Data Identification of adaptation measures in agriculture sector Identification of adaptation measures in water sector Dissemination of Project Outcomes 10 GCISC Approach for CC Research Area of GCISC Activities at Present Internal driving forces Information at 300 km x 300 km level Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Global Climate Scenarios Land use & Topographic data etc. Super Computer Anthropogenic Influences Adaptation Measures Watershed Models Effect on River inflows Mesoscale Climate Models (MMs) Effects on Crop Yields Information at 30 km x 30 km level Impact Studies External driving forces Regional Climate Scenarios Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Crop-growth Simulation Models Agriculture Information at Sub-km level Adaptation Measures Future Activities Health Energy Biodiversity 11 Simulation Models Currently in Use at GCISC Regional Climate Models : • RegCM3 (AS-ICTP, Italy) • PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK) • WRF (NCAR, USA) Watershed Models : • DHSVM (Univ. of Washington, USA) • UBC (Univ. of British Columbia, Canada) • HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers) Crop Simulation Models : DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, USA) comprising several families of models: • CERES (for cereals) • CROPGRO (for grain legumes) • CROPSIM (for root crops) • Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture) 12 Salient Research Results Obtained by GCISC 13 Climate Change Projections a) Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2 and A1B scenarios b) Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2 scenario using RCMs: RegCM3 and PRECIS Base period: 1961 – 1990 Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039 2050s = 2040 – 2069 2080s = 2070 – 2099 14 Pakistan and its Northern & Southern Parts (a) (b) (c) a) Pakistan b) Northern Pakistan b) Southern Pakistan 15 Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan For A2 Scenario, based on Ensemble of 13 GCMs (Global ∆T = 4.0 °C in 2100) For A1B Scenario, based on Ensemble of 17 GCMs (Global ∆T = 2.8 °C in 2100) 16 Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario Pakistan Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18 Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26 Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18 • Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan • Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer 17 Projected Temperature Change (°C) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario) Projected Precipitation Change (%) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario) 18 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan 19 Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate Change Impact Studies on Agriculture 20 Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan Temperature ˚C (increase over baseline) Growing Season Length (Days) Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan Mountainous Region (Humid) Sub-Mountainous Region (Sub-humid) Plains (Semiarid) Plains (Arid) 246 161 146 137 1 232 155 140 132 2 221 149 135 127 3 211 144 130 123 4 202 138 125 118 5 194 133 121 113 Baseline 21 Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant) 4500 Northern Mountainous (Humid) Wheat Yield (kg/ha) 4000 Northern SubMountainous (Sub-humid) 3500 3000 Southern Plains (Semi arid) 2500 Southern Plains (Arid) 2000 0 1 2 3 Temperature Change ( oC) 4 5 22 Effect of increase in CO2 concentration on wheat yield (other factors remaining constant) 6500 Wheat Yield (kg/ha) Southern Semiarid Plains 5500 Southern Arid Plains 4500 Northern Submountainous region 3500 2500 Northern Mountainous Region 1500 350 525 700 875 1050 CO2 Concentration (ppm) 23 Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios Wheat Yield (kg/ha) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 Base 2020 2050 2080 Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains 24 Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios Region % Share in National Production Baseline Yield (kg ha-1) Northern Mountainous 2 Northern Submountainous % Change in yield in 2085 A2 Scenario B2 Scenario 2658 +50 +40 9 3933 -11 -11 Southern Semi arid Plains 42 4306 -8 -8 Southern Arid Plains 47 4490 -5 -6 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4 Pakistan 25 Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios Rice yield (kg/ha) 4400 A2 Scenarios 4200 4000 3800 B2 Scenario 3600 3400 3200 3000 1990 2025 2055 2085 Year Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios 26 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources of Pakistan 27 UPPER INDUS BASIN at Bisham Qila Discharge (cumecs) 10000 9000 Observrd flow 8000 Simulated flow 7000 Snow melt runoff 6000 Met Stations: ziarat (3669), yasin (3150) Glacial contribution 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Date of run (mm/dd/yyyy) R2 Eff. Calibration (1999-2004) Validation (1995-1999) 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.87 9/1/2001 8/1/2001 7/1/2001 6/1/2001 5/1/2001 4/1/2001 3/1/2001 2/1/2001 1/1/2001 12/1/2000 11/1/2000 10/1/2000 0 % Vol. Diff. 0.32 -5.16 28 Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50% Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004 Discharge (Cumecs) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Main Results: Base Runoff CCS Runoff Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 0 29 Study of HKH Glaciers by GCISC GCISC has recently agreed to join hands with the GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements From Space) project of Southwest Asia Regional Centre, University at Nebraska Omaha, USA to delineate the boundaries of various HKH glaciers using satellite imageries. An MoU has been signed. GCISC plan to use the above experience to study expansion/shrinkage behavior of major UIB glaciers, using time series satellite data. Major Collaborating National Organizations 1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD 2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA 3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC 4. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST 5. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF 6. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR 31 Major Collaborating International Partners • APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan; • ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy; • IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; • GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA; • GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK. 32 33