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Monash Sustainability Institute
The impact of climate change on
Australians at risk of social
exclusion
Janet Stanley
Overview
1. The meaning of social exclusion
2. The problem of climate change
3. The link between social exclusion and
climate change
4. How socially excluded people will be
impacted by climate change in Australia
5. Solutions
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1. The meaning of Social Exclusion
Who is at risk of SE?
Aged, children, low income,
unemployed, rurally isolated,
new migrants/refugees,
Indigenous people, those with a
disability, poor health, single
parent families
Meaning of SE:
•
•
•
Concept from SEU in UK
Multiple inter-related factors
Barriers to inclusion in society
‘I used to nick cars because there’s nothing else to do.
You’re just walking around at two in the morning and
there’s a car and why not? It’s better than just walking
around’
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Multiple disLow income
advantages Sole parent family
form SE
Mental health issues
Unemployment
Substance abuse
Family relationship problem/s
Personal/family isolation
Cause
Family violence
Housing problems
Low education attainment
Homelessness
Disability
Migration/resettlement process issue
Ethnic background
Physical ill-health
Government policy
Lack of community services
Family size
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% of survey respondents
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Social Exclusion
A no. of ways it is
‘officially’ measured,
commonly:
• Income – dominant
• Employment status
• Social interaction &/or
access to basic services,
&/or participation
• Civic engagement
London School of Economics
A complicated concept:
– Circular
– Usually not an absolute
measure – measured over
time
– No benchmarks or
thresholds established
– Defined to mean what
people want it to mean
– However it is useful:
highlights an important
group of issues
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2. Climate Change
High tide - Iama Island
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Climate Change
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Global emissions are growing at the worst-case end of
IPCC predictions
Actual
IPCC worst
case
Source: Garnaut
Draft Report,
2008
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Sustainability
Institute
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The evidence for warming of the climate system is
unequivocal
High tide - Iama Island
• Surface temperatures increasing
• Ocean heating
• Atmospheric water vapour content
increasing
• Ice sheets losing mass & glaciers
melting
• More intense and longer droughts
• Frequency of heavy precipitation
events increasing
• Extreme temperatures increasing
• Tropical cyclone intensity
increasing
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There will be an introduction of government
measures to reduce cc
• ETS – put a price on carbon emissions
• Encouragement of voluntary behaviour
change – such as energy efficiencies
• Remove perverse incentive such as rate
decoupling for electricity and water
• Regulation – such as vehicle emissions, energy
efficiency standards for housing
• Infra-structure – such as better urban planning
and provision of public transport
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3. The link between social exclusion and
climate change - Key points:
1. Climate change and associated impacts will
disproportionately impact on low income
households.
2. Policy responses aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions will have a social
cost
3. There is a risk that new groups of
disadvantaged Australians will be created
4. Climate change provides opportunities in
relation to:
– Employment opportunities for low skilled and
unemployed people
– Reduction of energy costs in the longer term
– Community involvement, social inclusion,
independence and engagement
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Climate change itself will disproportionately impact on
low income households
• Health impacts – heatwaves, the changed distribution of water-borne
diseases, food-borne diseases, exposure to solar radiation (skin cancer)
and respiratory diseases
• Housing and public spaces –access to public open space for sport and
recreation, protection of houses from extreme events, vulnerability of
homeless or experiencing severe housing stress
• Impacts on rural Australia – economic viability of some rural industries
and the communities that are built around them, which raises the
possibility of forced internal migration
• Indigenous Australians – particularly those in remote communities in
northern Australia. Loss of business opportunities
• Refugees seeking humanitarian access – especially from our Pacific
neighbours, rising sea levels and increased storms. The land areas
affected, although relatively small, are home to millions of people, who
will become displaced.
• Increase costs of basic necessities – food, energy, water
• Employment changes
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Policy response will disproportionately impact on
disadvantaged people: Impact of a price on carbon
Household
type
Per annum
cost@
$25 & $50
Annual carbon
consumption
(tonnes)
Carbon cost % of
expenditure
(utility adjusted
and household
equivalised)
$A25
$A50
Poor
$558 $1,115
22.3
2.3
4.6
High income
$1,445 $2891
57.8
0.4
0.7
Impact of a $25 & $50/t CO2(e) carbon price on Aust/n household types
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Climate change and climate change policy may increase
the severity of SE lead to higher levels of SE in Australia
Poor households lack the capacity
to respond to cc:
– They have little discretionary
spending
– They lack the financial
resources needed to invest in
energy efficiency or upgrade
energy-using appliances at
home
– They lack access to information
on behavioural changes that
can help them reduce their use
of energy
– Low price elasticity of
necessities
This is an argument for equity, not
one against action on CC
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Increase in people at risk of social exclusion
Carbon tax of $50/tonne
4.7%
Aust/ns
added
Poverty line
13.7%
Australians
Need $80/tonne by 2020 to keep
temperature below 2 degree rise
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Principles for policy around carbon reduction
• Responsibility – creators of carbon
pollution should pay
• Capacity – those with the greatest
capacity should pay the most
• Vulnerability – those most vulnerable
need assistance on the grounds of
equity and efficiency
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Examples of problems/solutions Examples of
problems/solutions
(a) Low income renters in the private rental market
• Many low income people are in the private rental
market
• Structural energy efficiencies: insulation, hot water
services, heating, draft excluding the house etc
• Responsibility of landlord to improve energy
efficiencies of housing structure? Risk of rent rises
• Possible solutions:
– Mandate energy efficiency standards for all rental
housing at point of rental tenant change
– Longer tenant agreements
• Need to change body corporate rules
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Examples of problems/solutions b) Transport
We need to get people out of cars to reduce carbon
Shipping
Rail
80
Aviation
Trucks
60
88% road transport
Emissions (Mt CO2-eq)
100
Light Commercial vehicles
Buses
40
Cars
20
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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We need to get people out of cars to reduce carbon
Forced car ownership – Graham Currie
Transport poverty is where a household is forced to consume more
in travel costs than it can reasonably afford
20,800 households in Melbourne who earn less
than $500 a week own two or more cars.
– ‘Hidden inequity’ - forced car ownership
Average weekly running costs for a new medium size car
- $210 per week
A carbon tax will result in car ownership for many moving
from ‘forced’ to ‘impossible’
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Average annual use of CO2 (tonnes) by poor
households in Melbourne LGAs 2006
@ $35/tonne
$1164 to @1220
extra per annum for
red LGAs
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Average annual use of CO2 per Victorian LGA for poor
households 2006
Average carbon use
Poor households
@ $35/tonne, extra cost of
$1173 to $1306 annually
for red LGAs
33 .5 to
37 .3
(14)
32 .1 to
33 .5
(15)
30 .7 to
32 .1
(17)
29 .8 to
30 .7
(2)
28.0
29 .8
(1)
to
not applicable
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Solution: Bus minimum service
• The highest priority should be to ensure the availability of a
decent base (minimum) public transport service
– Service coverage, frequency and span of hours (MSL);
– Also, reliability, connectivity, service information
• This suggests a minimum service level for buses of:
– Minimum hourly frequency, seven days
– Weekdays 6am to 9pm (start of last bus)
– Saturday 7am to 9pm
– Sunday 8am to 9pm
– Friday nights & Saturday nights possibly later
• The Victorian Government is implementing this MSL to target
social exclusion (“social transit” initiative)
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Beyond service levels:
Up-grading of infrastructure around the bus system becomes vital to further
patronage growth: footpaths, bus stops, lighting, customer service, safety
Christchurch (NZ) Bus Terminal
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Examples of problems/solutions
(c) Programs to assist people
• Energy and Water
Task Force
• The project assists low income Victorians in the following
ways:
– Lowering energy bills (12% reduction per household)
– Improving the comfort and quality of their homes
– Improving water efficiency
– Reducing waste
– Providing job training opportunities
• Over 3000 homes have been retrofitted since 2003
• 70% of Interim Labour Market’s participants transition into the
open labour market
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Role of welfare sector?
• Knowledge and experience to assist those at risk
of SE to fairly adjust to cc and take up the
opportunities
• In 2020 may be $7 billion annually raised from ETS
• Garnaut – 50% to households on principles of
equity
• Opportunity for welfare to receive payments to
assist vulnerable households (?)
• More natural emergencies
• Psychological stress
• Opportunity (necessity) for building communities
and networks
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Possible scenario for a carbon-constrained
Australia
• A low income household set up with
solar panels on the roof and a water
collection system
• The excess energy and water is sold
back to the energy grid and water
distribution system
• The household has almost zero energy
and water costs and a new source of
revenue!
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