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Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Overview of WGII Findings Neil Leary IPCC Special Event, CoP6 Part II, Bonn-Germany, 17 July 2001 17 Jul 2001 1 Preparation of the WGII Report Written by 183 Lead and 243 Contributing Authors Authors met multiple times during the 2 1/2 year assessment Peer Reviewed by scientific and technical experts by governments Report revised to address reviewer comments 33 Review Editors oversaw the review/revision process Accepted at 6th Session of IPCC WGII as “a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view” Session attended by government delegates of 100 nations 17 Jul 2001 2 Preparation of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) 60 authors of the WGII Report drafted the SPM A first draft was circulated to all lead authors, external reviewers and governments prior to a meeting of authors The SPM was revised by authors based on written comments and discussion at the meeting The revised draft was circulated to all governments for their consideration Written comments submitted again The authors met and revised the SPM again 17 Jul 2001 3 Approval of WGII SPM The SPM was approved at 6th Session of IPCC WGII Approval signifies agreement that the SPM is consistent with the full report Changes were made to the SPM at the WG Session to clarify the language and to highlight material of particular relevance to policymakers 40 authors participated in the WG Session Authors ensured that changes were scientifically valid and that the final document was consistent with the full report 17 Jul 2001 4 General Findings from WGII Temperature increases have already affected physical and biological systems Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences Preliminary indications that human systems have been affected by increases in floods and droughts Risks of large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts are yet to be reliably quantified Natural systems are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damaged Many human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerable 17 Jul 2001 Adaptation is a necessary complement to mitigation Those with least resources have least capacity to adapt and are most vulnerable Adaptation, sustainable development, and enhancement of equity can be mutually reinforcing. 5 Temperature changes have already affected many physical and biological systems 17 Jul 2001 6 Types of Changes Seen Animals and Plants Range shifts (latitudinal or altitudinal) Hydrology and Glaciers Glacier shrinkage Abundance changes Permafrost thawing Change in growing season length Later freeze & earlier break up of river and lake ice Earlier flowering; emergence of insects; migration and egglaying in birds Morphology shifts (e.g. body & egg sizes) 17 Jul 2001 7 Numbers of species or processes changing 90% of physical and 80% of biological cases identified are changing in the direction consistent with well-established temperature relationships. Birds in direction expected Glaciers/ hydrology 300 200 100 Vegetation Invertebrates Amphibians Mammals 0 opposite to direction expected 17 Jul 2001 -100 8 There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by increases in floods and droughts 17 Jul 2001 9 Catastrophic weather-related losses increased 10-fold from 1950s 17 Jul 2001 10 Natural systems are vulnerable to climate change and some will be irreversibly damaged 17 Jul 2001 11 Some Threatened Systems Endorheic lakes: e.g. Caspian, Aral seas Tropical glaciers and related water flows Ecosystems with migration barriers - e.g. Montane ecosystems, Cape Floral Kingdom Coral Reefs (1% of ocean area, 30% of marine species) Mangroves- e.g. Sundarbans, last habitat of Royal Bengal Tiger Endangered species 17 Jul 2001 12 Many human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerable 17 Jul 2001 13 Human Systems Sensitive Systems Water resources Agriculture, forestry, fisheries Human settlements Industry, energy, financial services Vulnerabilities Food and water security Incomes and livelihoods Human health Infrastructure 17 Jul 2001 14 Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences 17 Jul 2001 15 Changes in extreme events (temperature) Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas (Very likely) Increased death and serious illness in older age groups and urban poor Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife Shift in tourist destinations Increased risk of damage to a number of crops Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability 17 Jul 2001 Higher [Increasing] minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days and cold waves over nearly all land areas (Very likely) Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortality Decreased damage to a number of crops, and increased risk to others Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors Reduced heating energy demand 16 Changes in extreme events (hydrological) Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (Likely) Decreased crop yields Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage Decreased water resource quantity and quality Increased risk of forest fire 17 Jul 2001 More intense precipitation events (Very likely, over many areas) Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damage Increased soil erosion Increased flood runoff could increase recharge of some floodplain aquifers Increased pressure on government and private insurance systems and disaster relief 17 Risks of large scale and possibly irreversible impacts are yet to be reliably quantified 17 Jul 2001 18 Sea level rise from disintegration of Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets Substantial slowing or collapse of ocean circulation that transports heat to North Atlantic Very low likelihood in 21st century but increases with rate, magnitude and duration of climate change 17 Jul 2001 19 Synthesis Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within for a time-frame Reasons concernsufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate to Unique andisThreatened Systems change, to ensure Risks that food production not threatened and to enable economic development to Risks from Extreme Climate Events proceed in a sustainable manner. Distribution of Impacts Aggregate Impacts Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities A multi-dimensional basis for providing scientific and technical information relevant to policy decisions on “dangerous” levels of interference with the climate system. 17 Jul 2001 20 Global mean warming oC Comparing reasons for concern Year 17 Jul 2001 I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climate Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities 21 Summary For small amounts of climate change, benefits are projected for some sectors and regions, although the majority of people are likely to be adversely affected For larger amounts of change, projected benefits diminish, projected damages increase, and risks associated with large scale discontinuities become more important The WG II contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report provides the clearest evidence yet that the effects of climate change will be widespread and should be taken seriously. 17 Jul 2001 22