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Transcript
Climate Change 2001:
Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability
Overview of WGII Findings
Neil Leary
IPCC Special Event, CoP6 Part II, Bonn-Germany, 17 July 2001
17 Jul 2001
1
Preparation of the WGII Report
Written by 183 Lead and 243 Contributing Authors
 Authors met multiple times during the 2 1/2 year assessment
Peer Reviewed
 by scientific and technical experts
 by governments
Report revised to address reviewer comments
 33 Review Editors oversaw the review/revision process
Accepted at 6th Session of IPCC WGII as “a
comprehensive, objective, and balanced view”
 Session attended by government delegates of 100 nations
17 Jul 2001
2
Preparation of the Summary for
Policymakers (SPM)
60 authors of the WGII Report drafted the SPM
 A first draft was circulated to all lead authors, external
reviewers and governments prior to a meeting of authors
 The SPM was revised by authors based on written comments
and discussion at the meeting
The revised draft was circulated to all governments
for their consideration
 Written comments submitted again
 The authors met and revised the SPM again
17 Jul 2001
3
Approval of WGII SPM
The SPM was approved at 6th Session of IPCC WGII
 Approval signifies agreement that the SPM is consistent with
the full report
Changes were made to the SPM at the WG Session
 to clarify the language and
 to highlight material of particular relevance to policymakers
40 authors participated in the WG Session
 Authors ensured that changes were scientifically valid and
 that the final document was consistent with the full report
17 Jul 2001
4
General Findings from WGII
Temperature increases have
already affected physical and
biological systems
Projected changes in climate
extremes could have major
consequences
Preliminary indications that
human systems have been
affected by increases in floods
and droughts
Risks of large-scale and possibly
irreversible impacts are yet to be
reliably quantified
Natural systems are vulnerable
and some will be irreversibly
damaged
Many human systems are
sensitive to climate change and
some are vulnerable
17 Jul 2001
Adaptation is a necessary
complement to mitigation
Those with least resources have
least capacity to adapt and are
most vulnerable
Adaptation, sustainable
development, and enhancement of
equity can be mutually reinforcing.
5
Temperature changes have already
affected many physical and biological
systems
17 Jul 2001
6
Types of Changes Seen
Animals and Plants
Range shifts (latitudinal or
altitudinal)
Hydrology and Glaciers
Glacier shrinkage
Abundance changes
Permafrost thawing
Change in growing season
length
Later freeze & earlier break up
of river and lake ice
Earlier flowering; emergence of
insects; migration and egglaying in birds
Morphology shifts (e.g. body &
egg sizes)
17 Jul 2001
7
Numbers of species or processes changing
90% of physical and 80% of biological cases
identified are changing in the direction consistent
with well-established temperature relationships.
Birds
in direction
expected
Glaciers/ hydrology
300
200
100
Vegetation
Invertebrates
Amphibians
Mammals
0
opposite to
direction
expected
17 Jul 2001
-100
8
There are preliminary indications
that some human systems have
been affected by increases in
floods and droughts
17 Jul 2001
9
Catastrophic weather-related losses
increased 10-fold from 1950s
17 Jul 2001
10
Natural systems are vulnerable to
climate change and some will be
irreversibly damaged
17 Jul 2001
11
Some Threatened
Systems
Endorheic lakes: e.g. Caspian, Aral seas
Tropical glaciers and related water flows
Ecosystems with migration barriers - e.g.
Montane ecosystems, Cape Floral
Kingdom
Coral Reefs (1% of ocean area, 30% of
marine species)
Mangroves- e.g. Sundarbans, last
habitat of Royal Bengal Tiger
Endangered species
17 Jul 2001
12
Many human systems are
sensitive to climate change and
some are vulnerable
17 Jul 2001
13
Human Systems
Sensitive Systems
Water resources
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Human settlements
Industry, energy, financial services
Vulnerabilities
Food and water security
Incomes and livelihoods
Human health
Infrastructure
17 Jul 2001
14
Projected changes in climate
extremes could have major
consequences
17 Jul 2001
15
Changes in extreme events
(temperature)
Higher maximum temperatures,
more hot days and heat waves
over nearly all land areas (Very
likely)
Increased death and serious
illness in older age groups and
urban poor
Increased heat stress in
livestock and wildlife
Shift in tourist destinations
Increased risk of damage to a
number of crops
Increased electric cooling
demand and reduced energy
supply reliability
17 Jul 2001
Higher [Increasing] minimum
temperatures, fewer cold days,
frost days and cold waves over
nearly all land areas (Very likely)
Decreased cold-related human
morbidity and mortality
Decreased damage to a number of
crops, and increased risk to others
Extended range and activity of
some pest and disease vectors
Reduced heating energy demand
16
Changes in extreme events
(hydrological)
Increased summer drying over most
mid-latitude continental interiors
and associated risk of drought
(Likely)
Decreased crop yields
Increased damage to building
foundations caused by ground
shrinkage
Decreased water resource quantity
and quality
Increased risk of forest fire
17 Jul 2001
More intense precipitation events
(Very likely, over many areas)
Increased flood, landslide,
avalanche, and mudslide
damage
Increased soil erosion
Increased flood runoff could
increase recharge of some
floodplain aquifers
Increased pressure on
government and private
insurance systems and disaster
relief
17
Risks of large scale and possibly
irreversible impacts are yet to be
reliably quantified
17 Jul 2001
18
Sea level rise from
disintegration of Greenland
and West Antarctic Ice Sheets
Substantial slowing or collapse of
ocean circulation that transports
heat to North Atlantic
Very low likelihood in 21st century but
increases with rate, magnitude and duration
of climate change
17 Jul 2001
19
Synthesis
Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention
… is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. Such a level
should be achieved
within for
a time-frame
Reasons
concernsufficient to
allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
to Unique
andisThreatened
Systems
change, to ensure Risks
that food
production
not
threatened and to enable
economic
development
to
Risks from
Extreme
Climate Events
proceed in a sustainable manner.
Distribution of Impacts
Aggregate Impacts
Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities
A multi-dimensional basis for providing
scientific and technical information relevant
to policy decisions on “dangerous” levels
of interference with the climate system.
17 Jul 2001
20
Global mean warming oC
Comparing reasons for concern
Year
17 Jul 2001
I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems
II Risks from Extreme Climate Events
III Distribution of Impacts
IV Aggregate Impacts
V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities
21
Summary
For small amounts of climate
change, benefits are projected
for some sectors and regions,
although the majority of people
are likely to be adversely
affected
For larger amounts of change,
projected benefits diminish,
projected damages increase,
and risks associated with large
scale discontinuities become
more important
The WG II contribution to the IPCC
Third Assessment Report provides the
clearest evidence yet that the effects
of climate change will be widespread
and should be taken seriously.
17 Jul 2001
22