Download Health & Safety – risk assessment

TEP Seminar XI
Trees: the key to climate proofing our cities
Tree-related risks – a perspective from
the Stern report
“Where’er you walk, cool gales shall fan the glade,
Trees, where you sit, shall crowd into a shade.”
Alexander Pope 1688-1744
David Ball
Centre for Decision Analysis & Risk Management, Middlesex
University
www.mdx.ac.uk/risk
What is the Stern report?
Stern Review on the Economics of Climate
Change
In 2006 Sir Nicholas Stern, Adviser to the
Government on the economics of climate change
and development, presented his report on the
Economics of Climate Change.
DARM, Middlesex University
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Selected Conclusions
• average air temperatures could rise by 5ºC
• deforestation is responsible for more
greenhouse gas emissions than transport
• climate is the biggest market failure ever seen
• deforestation should be curbed urgently
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Towns and cities will suffer more
due to the urban heat island effect
Ref: Tony Chandler’s ‘The climate of London’ and…
As cities grow, they impact local and regional climates, including temperature
averages and extremes. Temperature changes affect urban dwellers in many
ways, influencing their health and comfort, energy costs, air quality and
visibility levels, water availability and quality, ecological services, recreation,
and overall quality of life.
Source: Arizona State University http://asusmart.com/urbanclimate.php
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Urban heat islands are caused by…
• heat generation in the city
• surface reflectivity
• fewer trees, shrubs and plants to shade
buildings, intercept solar radiation, and cool
the air by evapotraspiration
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Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: a time series approach
S Hajat1, R S Kovats1, R W Atkinson2, A Haines1
1 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
2 St George's Hospital Medical School, London, UK
There is a 3% increase in deaths in
London for every one degree increase in
temperature above 21 ºC.
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It’s about……
PLANTING TREES PROPERLY
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Source: http://heatisland.lbl.gov/Vegetation/Planting.html
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The threat of the safety ‘meme’
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The invasion of the ‘safety meme’
Evolutionary theorist and biologist Richard
Dawkins coined the term meme in 1976.
He gave as examples tunes, catch-phrases,
beliefs, clothing fashions……….
Wikipedia, 2007
It also applies to
‘ideas’. Ideas (ways of
thinking) can spread
like viruses…..
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Richard Dawkins
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According to Judith Hackitt (Chair of
the HSE), and others:
“Elf n Safety” is now a serious irritation e.g.
• banning of pancake races and wet T-shirt
competitions
• Santa Claus and his sleigh
• plastic swords in a village pantomime
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THE NATIONAL ELF SERVICE
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‘Elf n safety’ is in some sense out of
control.
It doesn’t even think much about elf.
It’s almost exclusively about reducing
risk of injury, property damage and
legal liability.
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How elf n safety pits safety against health…
Metro 16 March 2004
…and thereby kills people.
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That’s why we need a new approach
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HSE’s slogan is “Managing risk properly”
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“Managing trees properly”
Benefits
of trees
Risks posed
by trees
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