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CMUA Conference – April 16, 2015 Climate Change and Potential Effects on California Water Operations The Issues • Observed Data – Historical Perspective – Northern California Watersheds • Future Climate Scenarios – Interior’s Modeling Scenarios – Reservoir Management – The Bay-Delta • Adaptation Strategies Data “The Global sea level rose by about 120 m during the several millennia that followed the end of the last ice age (approximately 21,000 years ago), and stabilized between 3,000 and 2,000 years ago.” IPCC AR4 7 - 8 inches over 100 years Blue Canyon, CA - Air Temperature y = 1.355017E-04x + 6.386670E+01 75 August = + 3F 70 65 60 55 50 Annual Average = + 2F 45 40 35 30 y = 9.07577180E-05x + 4.82415257E+01 All August Linear (All) Linear (August) 2009 1995 1982 1968 1954 1941 25 Forecasts USBR Basin Study Modeling Assumptions +1 degree C +/- 8% Precip USBR Basin Study Results – Sacramento Valley Temperature USBR Basin Study Results – Sacramento Valley Precipitation Annual Folsom Unimpaired Inflow (FUI) (WY1902 - WY2014) 7,000,000 6,000,000 Acre-Feet (AF) 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Annual Folsom Unimpaired Inflow (FUI) Annual Folsom Unimpaired Inflow (FUI) (WY1902 - WY2014) 7,000,000 Annual Folsom Unimpaired Inflow (FUI) 10% Above & Below Mean (Basin Plan) 6,000,000 Acre-Feet (AF) 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 USBR Basin Study Results – Sea Level Rise Projections 16, 35 or 66 inches over next 100 years. Basin Study Results – Delta Salinity Projections Increasing Electro-conductivity in the Delta with Sea Level Rise Current Brackish Water Zone Clifton Court Forebay Future Brackish Water Clifton Court Forebay BDCP Results – Folsom Dry in 10% of years with Climate Change Adaptations (a.k.a. finally some good news) We’ve Been Here Before We Can Adapt • Preparing for present-day droughts and preparing for a warming climate involve the same adaptations. Upstream actions: • More rain and less snow demand more upstream storage. • Upstream reservoir operations require higher end of year carry-over storage targets, and smarter flood control operations. • Much broader utilization of conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. We Can Adapt • Preparing for present-day droughts and preparing for a warming climate involve the same adaptations. In the Delta: • A saltier Delta requires modified Delta conveyance to move fresh water around brackish water. • Compressed winter runoff pattern requires large diversion capacity when water is available in the system. • Delta requirements must recognize drought and climate reality, or we kill the tributaries trying to keep the Delta fresh. We Can Adapt • Preparing for present-day droughts and preparing for a warming climate involve the same adaptations. South of the Delta: • Increased storage south-of-Delta to take advantage of diversions when available. • Stabilize groundwater levels in the San Joaquin Valley so conjunctive use opportunities are available in dry years for multiple uses. • Broader utilization of desalination, recycled and groundwater resources, combined with imports to stabilize supplies.