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–
-
For Oxford Age Of Stupid Debate Barrack Lane 24 May 2009**
What Does & Does Not
CAUSE Climate Change
• What is it all about?
• Science vs The New Green ‘Religion’
• The Solar Weather Technique & Forecast of World Climate for 100 yrs
** Further to presentations at Raven’s Ait ‘Environment Parliament’ historic island occupation
Easter 2009 and International Climate Change Conference New York 10 March 2009
• Evidence based
science !
Key Presentation
slides 1-42
• Beware of confusing
Cause, Effect &
‘Association’!
SWT 85% hit
success slide 54
NOTES mode for info on
slides: 12 & 28- 31.
The Long Range Forecasters
Piers Corbyn*Climate Realist
www.weatheraction.com
Team includes Judith Humprey, Kirill Kuzanyan (IZMIRAN Russ Acad Sci) & Ulric Lyons
Piers Corbyn is the originator of the Solar Weather Technique of Long Range Forecasting and founder
of WeatherAction 177 Borough High St, London SE1 1HRTel: +44 (0)20 7939 9946.; +447958713320
-
Key Explanations
• What is Global Warming / Climate Change?
• What is happening - Is it new?
• What Does & Does Not cause Climate Change?
Key Message
• Global warming is over and it never was anything
to with CO2.
• There is no evidence for the CO2 theory of Global
Warming/Climate Change – only evidence against.
• Global Warming & Climate Change policy are
Politically driven.
• Accountability must be extended and all public
policy must be Evidence based.
Science must come Before
Ideology & Religion.
Should scientific evidence be over-ruled when it
disagrees with a religion, ideology or political project?
Public Safety must come
before politics & ideology
Is it more important to Work to solve environmental
problems or Refuse to use help to find solutions
because they are from the ‘wrong ideology or don’t
serve a particular political project’?
All UN (IPCC) / Met Office projections for ongoing
world temperature rises this century have failed.
Official data shows the world has been cooling SINCE 2002 (both satellite and
surface measurements) despite ongoing rapid rise in CO2.
There is no evidence that shows using observed data
for the last 100, 100,000 or 100 million yrs that CO2
has any net effect on temperature or climate.
The evidence is rather that temperature in the long run controls CO2.
13 independent scientists including three Expert IPCC reviewers, professors and forecasters wrote to the
UN July 2008 requesting such evidence and have been ignored. Letter to UN Sec Gen 14 July 2008:
http://www.lowefo.com/pdf/Letter_UN_Sec_Gen_Ban_Ki-moon.pdf The IPCC of course hides behind
many peer-reviewed works but all of it is a side show compared with the main question. They have countless peerreviewed articles on measures of CO2 levels and of various natural phenomena and failed computer models but nothing
which supports their fundamental contention that CO2 changes drive warming & climate change.
There is no evidence that changes in storminess,
tornadoes, or rates of sea level rise or rates of change
of glacier length or developments in polar regions etc
relate to the onset of mankind's industrialisation.
http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/22434/Environmental_Effects_of_Increased_Atmospheric_Carbon_Dioxide_updated.html
The Four kinds of Global
Warming propaganda
The first two are in tatters so now we will hear more GW propaganda of 3rd & 4th kind.
GW1 = "CO2 causes Global Warming"
GW2 = "CO2 causes Climate Change/extremes"
- Jumping over the warming link which is proven as broken - Storms, Arctic, etc
GW3 = "CO2 direct effects" eg so called ocean acidification
GW4 = Twisted logic, pseudo-science & innuendo
of the type - "It's not a dog therefore its a cat" ("It's not solar brightness /
Galactic Cosmic Rays therefore its CO2");
- The CO2 effect is being 'stored up‘. This is like waiting for time to run
backwards - since CO2 levels in the long run are driven by temp.
- Al Gore gave up tobacco farming therefore Climate Realists are wrong.
How High is the Sky?
8 miles - like 1mm of card on a football
How much CO2 is in air? – Only 1 part in 3300.
If each block below is one molecule of gas in air just ONE is CO2
Q. Of this ONE part in 3300. How much of the CO2 flow
in and out of the atmosphere is due to mankind?
A. 4% (or LESS) = one part in 25 = the dark square
So mankind’s CO2 is about changes of 1/100,000
part of the atmosphere which is only 8 miles high
COMPARE Earth’s magnetic field extends into space at least 40,000 miles.
Standard meteorology relies on 8 miles of atmosphere. The Solar Weather Technique of weather &
climate forecasting relies on the Earths whole atmosphere, the solar wind between the sun & the
Q. What proportion of total ‘Greenhouses
effect’ is Man’s CO2?
A. The tiny blue sliver that hardly
shows on this pie chart!
www.searchanddiscovery.com/.../images/04.htm
NB precise figures uncertain but Man’s CO2 certainly < 1%
World Temperatures keep falling while CO2 is rising!
Graph: Joe DAleo
Graph Joe D’Aleo
Temperatures (USA) 60 yr Cycle & CO2 1895 to 2008
World Temp
peak 2002/3

- Official data - Graph by JD’Aleo Sept 2008 Circulated by Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
Problems for GW Orthodoxy - 2
Rather than face continued
embarrassment from scientists
who requested the
temperatures be also
published, the most recent
IPCC ‘report’ leaves out even
the historical CO2 graph!
Temps drive CO2 as ice ages end.
Fast CO2 changes (like now) are hidden
At the end of
the last ice age
temperature
changes LEAD
CO2 by 800yrs
Similar leads are in Antarctic
Termination III 240kyr ago
(Caillon et al Science Mar 03)
CO2 diffuses
through ice
CO2 data points are at best 200yrs apart
and show only small variations between
points. This is because CO2 is a gas and
diffuses into centuries of ice layers. The
present CO2 spike will amount to a mere
blip in 1,000yrs time.
There is No
Evidence that the
present CO2 rapid
rise is unique.
Inconvenient Truths for GW Orthodoxy!
Time
Why GW is renamed Climate Change
The theory of ‘Global warming’ holds that Man’s CO2 causes Global
Warming and this causes other Climate Change and extremes.
CO2
Global Warming
Climate Change
We have heard a lot about weather extremes & ‘Climate Change’
Since 1998 CO2 has gone up but World
Temperatures have gone down.
ALL subsequent years* have been colder than 1998
Or In terms of two year moving averages the peak was 2002/3
*From Official estimates of world temperatures: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt
So there are claimed extra effects – ‘Climate
Change’ - without temperature rise to cause them!
AND has post Industrial revolution CO2 caused any
change that wasn’t going to happen anyway?
Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over 600 Million yrs
- No Evidence of CO2 driving temperature
Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 million years ago - 270 million years ago) is the only time period in the last 600 million
years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period). At no point do temperature and
CO2 levels relate. Temperature after C.R. Scotese http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm CO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)
Arctic Ice & Polar Bears – More ‘GW2’
All changes in the Arctic & Antarctic follow natural highly variable patterns.
They are not new or special and have been recorded for over a thousand years and have been very well
known to the British navy for a long time and available in the Met Office library**.
The Antarctic has been cooling for decades & the Arctic has started to cool in the last year or two. Ice
break-up of is a natural process and has been happening for millions of years - before media noticed.
(**HMSO 1963 Weather In the Home Fleet waters Vol 1 Northern Seas part 1 table XV page 246 shows the very high variability of ice off Iceland (eg) since
1900 and the long periods of change of two decades or more. Figures 124 & 125 (page 256) show that historical records indicate there was no pack ice off
Iceland for about 180 years from 1020AD to 1200AD yet there was plenty of pack ice through the rapid expansion of industry since 1900 (Fig 126 page 257).
The 120 year long late medieval warm period of Ice-free Iceland waters is
much longer than the supposedly alarming present events in the Arctic.
Ocean Acidification – a case of ‘GW3’!
– Hysterical nonsense & a research grant scam
- Man might be polluting the seas in many ways but CO2 isn’t one of them
Facts
Sea life did not die out
in Jurassic times
when CO2 was 5x
present or in
Devonian times &
before when it
was 10x present.
In fact it boomed!
Official figures show
at current rates
would take 23,000
years for Ocean
CO2 to double
even ignoring all
the myriad of
buffering effects.
New!
What Stops CO2 Extra ‘Greenhouse’ effect?
- further to Piers Corbyn International Climate Seminar Stockholm Sept 2006
Extra plant transpiration-Cooling
negates all extra CO2 heating
10% or so of
total evapotranspiration
heat removal
(cooling) is
transpiration
from land
plants. 11%
of 78W/m2 =
8.6 W/m2
Doubling CO2 increases CO2 Greenhouse heating of Earth’s surface by 3.8 W/m2. It also increases plant
growth & therefore transpiration heat removal (cooling) by 43% to 45%. Now, 44% of 8.6 = 3.8 W/m2
3.8 – 3.8 = 0 So CO2 increase has no net effect on world temperatures.
The Global Warmers’ last gasps
Claim
Refutation
(i) Anything X zero effect = zero
“CO2 levels
(ii) No evidence for this. There are no CO2 spikes in
have never
the past ice cores because CO2 is a gas and
risen so fast or
diffuses through centuries of ice. This current
CO2 spike will be invisible in 1k yrs time.
been so high”
“ONLY CO2
can explain the
temp rises”
Really - like present world cooling!!??
The graphs making this claim are smudge and fudge.
(see slide 30). Geomagnetic activity smoothed over 22yrs
(solar magnetic period) fits temperature much better.
CO2 effect is
being ‘stored
up’ & delayed.
The EVIDENCE is that CO2 changes are
generally driven by temperature. This assertion is
equivalent to ‘time will run backwards’.
Solar Activity drives Climate
– Oman stalagmite data 9.5kyr to 6k yr before present
Growth layers of stalagmite
in a Cave in Oman show:
Close
correlation
between
Particles from
the Sun* &
Temperature**
{*C14 proxy from Cosmic Ray Flux which
is reduced by Solar magnetic-particle
activity. **O18 isotope is Climate proxy}
Similar
correlations exist
over the last 500
Million years
See Neff et al, Nature May 2001; Veizer,
Geoscience Canada March 05
http://www.ashevilletribune.com/asheville/global%20warming/Global%20Warming%20DM%20Main%20Story%20March%2031%20Update.htm
World Temperatures & Solar Particles (Geomagnetic
Activity), Over Single Solar Cycles
World Temperatures and solar particles move together much better when averaged over
View in NOTES MODE for explanation
the (approx)11yr sunspot cycle, but there is an alternate cycle difference.
31
aa index
Note Colour
change!
0.30
26
0.10
-0.10
aa
16
-0.30
1979-1989
1968-1979
1957-1968
1947-1957
1937-1947
1928-1937
1917-1928
-0.70
1905-1917
6
1893-1905
-0.50
1883-1893
11
1870-1883
© M. Golipour, Weather Action Plc, March 1998
21
Single cycles
Fig 4a. Global Temperature Anomaly [red line] and
geomagnetic activity, aa, [blue line], both averaged for
successive solar cycles (from maximum to maximum).
Global Temperature Anomaly
Global_temp
World Temperatures & Solar particles (Geomagnetic
Activity), Over Double Solar (Hale) Cycles. Shown Moscow July 04
World Temperatures and solar particles move together astoundingly well when
averaged over the Double sunspot cycle.
25
0.05
aa index
-0.05
21
© M. Golipour, Weather Action Plc, March 1998
aa
-0.10
-0.15
19
-0.20
17
-0.25
-0.30
15
-0.35
13
-0.40
1870-1893
1893-1917
1917-1937
1937-1957
1957-1979
Double Solar Cycles
Fig 6a. Global Temperature Anomaly [red line] and geomagnetic
activity, aa, [blue line], both averaged over each double solar
cycle (from maximum to second maximum).
Global Temperature Anomaly
23
0.00
Global_temp
And a mystery
solved!!
The two graphs are lined up so
that points of the upper graph
(average up to date shown
over double sunspot cycle of
approx 22yr) corresponds to
the date in lower graph, the
smoothed CO2/Soot model
World Temperatures follow what…?
‘TG’ Gap
The ‘soot’ model uses global
‘undimmimng’ (soot
reduction) to explain rises later
in the graph. The solar model
can use the same or effects of
the very rapid motion of the
North magnetic pole.
The CO2/soot model has wide uncertainties which include
different assumptions which might fit OK in one section but not
in others (eg so over any 22yr section). The idea there is even
rough closeness to the range needs hidden inconsistencies.
Answer to ‘TG’ gap
question re Inst Of
Physics Presentation
2004 lies in Solar magnetic - Lunar
modulation
– to be explained at
Presentation!
Solar particle & magnetic
activity - OR A ‘special mix’ of CO2
(nature & Man) + CH4 +
N2O + O3 + volcanoes +
soot/aerosols + some
sunlight +..
If the Man-Earth ‘special
mix’ is in charge then how
does the sun decide to
send out particles to
match this Earth-based
driver?!
Peaks on this plot mark the main periodicities present in the data
Piers
Corbyn,
Weather
Action
The largest and highly significant signal in World Average Temperature records is the SolarMagnetic, or Hale Double-sunspot cycle; which has averaged 21 to 22 years since 1868
What Does & Doesn’t drive Climate
One X and you are out!
Evidence
Candidate
CO2
(Extra solar)
Cosmic Rays
(avoid confusion with
solar muons etc)
Light
variations in
solar cycle
Solar Activity &
MAGNETIC
Link/modulation
Temps Temps Temps
1975 to last 100 last
2000
or1k or 25k yrs
(smoothed)
10k yrs

X
X*



22 yr
= might explain
signal in
that evidence
world
X = doesn't work
temps
X
* This shows that on v
long time scales CO2 is
driven BY temps
X
NB Total Energy flux
of solar particles ~300
times Cosmic rays.
See 13th May 2009 WeatherAction News No 30 = http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=34&c=1
?
?
?
X
Light variations in solar
cycle less important
than solar magnetic (but
UV is important)




ALSO (SWT) has
predictive powers
12 months ahead
SLAM – Solar Lunar Amplitude Magnetic – Process – 60yr signal
= Declining phase of Odd solar cycle
= Solar eclipse Dec 1-13 (lunar node pointing to sun near
where earth crosses solar equator downwards) = Lr/fEf
The main world temperature envelope peaks occur in years following
close coincidence of Lr/fEf & Odd solar max + 1 or 2 yrs. Cycles 23
& 17 show this well.
21
9
11
13
15
17
23
19
- Official data - Graph (Temp data) by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural
essentially predictable processes*……..
The severe summer floods of 2007 & 2008 & 2009 were like
the very wet summers of 1875, 1876, 1877 and 1879 associated with the approx 132 yr pattern : 6X22=132,
7X19=133
The 2007 & 2008 & 2009 summer floods were predicted in
detail by the SWT. This flood-likely summers situation can
continue for a few years but is SUBJECT TO other
conditions (SWT) being satisfied.
*As first explained by Piers Corbyn to the Imperial College Union
President’s centenary dinner 27th July 2007.
How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 1
Lunar Nodal regression, R = 1/18.61 yr, & Magnetic linkages Z/2 = 1/22.2 yr
Beats for 2R & (Z/2): 2R /(Z/2) = 2.37 => B = 2R-2(Z/2); 1/B = ~59 yr
Beats for R & (Z/2) :
R /(Z/2) = 1.18 => B = R- (Z/2);
1/B = ~118yr
This Solar-Lunar (‘SLAM’) theory of the 60 yr fluctuation in World temperatures was first presented by Piers
Corbyn at the Centenary dinner of the Royal College of Science Association (science graduates of Imperial College) on
Dec 9th 2008 at the Criterion Restaurant, Piccadilly Circus London.
These ‘beat’ cycles are ‘envelope’ periods - not precise predictors of detailed repeat situations. So, eg,
close repeats are not 118 yrs before 2002 (=1884) but the odd cycles 11 and 13 each side of this which
moderately satisfy the Lunar node & Solar-Earth ‘falling’ node coincidence rule.
SWT Climate Forecast – issued Jan 08
World temperatures trend will continue
down in 2008 and all the way to 2013 and
almost certainly beyond
WeatherAction’s Climate forecast issued in Jan 2007 that world
temperatures in 2007 would NOT rise in the way the UN’s Climate
Change panel predicted has been confirmed.
“For 2008 the general downward trend of world temperature
will continue. World temperatures, averaged over pairs of
consecutive years, peaked in 2002/3 coinciding with the peak
of the 22yr world temperature cycle which is driven by the
sun’s magnetic cycle. The Solar-particle corridor is open for
more – predictable - solar driven weather extremes in 2008”
says Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.
Where will world temperatures go?
Forecast issued New York 10 March 2009 extended June 2009
CO2 - No effect
Solar -Lunar magnetic modulation – Minimum around 2030-32 probably
similar to late 1970s levels.
Magnetic Hale cycle The 22yr peaks of world temps are at Odd max + 2 years (ie around
2002/03). The Temp minima are at Even max plus 2 (for cycle 24, max = 2013+2=2015). At such
times Geomagnetic activity & WORLD temperatures are OPOSITELY correlated. So although
there are some early forecasts of generally low activity in Solar cycle 24 (eg SSN about 85) these
will NOT have a significant reducing effect on world temperatures. The important thing will be
more detail especially of linkage and weather EVENTS and the next Odd cycle.
‘Slow’ Sun-Earth changes such as a ‘Maunder’ type ‘little ice age ’ minimum. This is a
serious possibility inferred by recent lack of solar activity but yet neither ruled out nor in. For
such the next ODD cycle (cycle 25, commencing around 2019 peak 2024 end 2030) is critical.
CONCLUSION) General cooling to 2030 (& prob beyond) to
1970 levels or below. Staying below recent (2002) levels for at
least 100 years. The possibility of getting much colder by 2040
to below 1910 levels is not ruled out and will be estimated with
further theoretical research and solar observation.
Key Science Summary: Solar activity is in Charge
CO2 ‘greenhouse warming’ is negated by plant feedback processes
The idea that Carbon Dioxide, from Man or nature, is the cause of global warming is
disproved by the facts. Science has advanced beyond that theory.
1. If Carbon Dioxide (CO2) drives world temperatures then past data
would show it. But it does not.
Data going back decades, centuries and thousands of years shows that CO2 is not in charge. The graphs make it clear! The supporters of the theory of
CO2 enhanced Greenhouse effect driven global warming must answer this fact or their theory must be abandoned.
2. World temperatures & particles from the Sun move together very
closely - over recent decades, past centuries, thousands and
millions of years. This proves the Sun, not CO2, is in charge.
Does the Sun cause the weather or does the weather cause the Sun to change?
Various theoretical graphs have been drawn and presented to the public, using many assumptions, which combine CO2 (heating effect) with careful
amounts of cooling effects involving smoke and dust from volcanoes cars and industry etc to construct a curve which more-or-less moves with world
temperatures. If those theoretical graphs show that a special mix of CO2 and smoke drives the weather you also must explain HOW is it that the Sun
sends out particles to follow Earth Temperature!.
3. CO2 is a greenhouse gas so why doesn’t more of it make it
warmer? The answer is transpiration-cooling by plants.
Science has moved past the GW one-way-effect--CO2-theory.
The (close) equality of enhanced greenhouse heating & plant transpiration cooling is not coincidence. If there are not enough plants to do this cooling
then the world gets warmer. But photosynthesis then increases and plants grow more when it is warmer (tropical forests are the best) and so the
amount of plants increases, and their cooling effect increases - so temperatures cannot go up any more. Put simply: -
Plants increase their photosynthesis activity and it’s cooling effect
until that equals extra CO2 greenhouse heating.
Thanks to all in CLIMATE SCEPTICS International E Group for inspiration which made this Presentation possible,
Piers Corbyn, Weather Action The long range forecasters
What to do? – 3 point plan
1. Enjoy life! Enjoy the planet! Don't feel guilty about ‘carbon footprints’.
CO2 is the Gas Of Life (GOL)! More GOL increases the bounteousness of plant & animal life.
Stop real smoke and chemical pollution – GOL (CO2) IS NOT A POLLUTANT.
2. Recognise Man cannot change Climate Change!
The Problem is Climate Change POLICY.
‘Climate Science’ lacks integrity. Science is not driving policy. It’s the other way round! Climate Change ‘science’
is driven by those who benefit from Climate Change Policy. Act on the Charter for Climate Truth:
Prove and predict. Basic standards of science should be applied in Climate science and any theory of Climate
Change must be tested against available recorded data and testable specific predictions made.
Naming & Shaming. Scientists or journalists who make baseless claims or false statements on Climate and weather
should be ‘named and shamed’.
3. Get rid of ‘Green Spivs’ - Call politicians to account.
‘Justify it or drop it’. If they cannot justify a claim they most drop the policy.
Write to them – challenge them in meetings…..
Support Honest green policies for biodiversity & defending nature.
Scrap Climate Change / anti GOL (‘Green’) taxes and policies.
End their world burden - of high energy prices and food price rises and starvation caused by biofuels.
Support the world economy not the green scam – which is the of new bubble
of FALSE VALUE. The climate hype industry are a burden on the world economy & make billions from
carbon trading, windfarms & other green scams, nuclear power, & holding back world development.
Environment solutions starting in 2009 the year of Accountability & Rebirth of
integrity in politics & science!
• Put Science before ideology & politics.
• Stop the plunderers & creators of false value destroy
the environment when their ‘theory’ is given up.
• Honest Green principles: Defend Nature,
rainforests etc for THEIR OWN VALUE.
• WEXFAD Weather EXtremes (& any Natural
extreme) Forecasting And Defence.
• A New ‘(non) Religion’ of Democracy Integrity &
Accountability in Politics & Science.
Following slides are discussion extras
What causes Climate Change Policy?
The Global Warming Lobby
1. Governments - taxation and energy ‘security’
2. The Climate Crisis industry
– Carbon traders - advisors – ‘wind farmers’ – biofuel makers – ‘GW Scientists’ –
environmental columnists – ‘science correspondents’…
3. Oil Companies – BP policy:
http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6900&contentId=7028276
… We support urgent action to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations.... governments
and businesses must work together to create policy 'spaces' .... defined by appropriate
policy and regulation ... activity driven by market mechanisms .... policy and regulatory
interventions must support the development and implementation of appropriate
technological solutions and also enable the amendment of market mechanisms...
4. Green Zealots and Goons – self appointed bishops and
commissars of the new godless ‘Green’ religion – any
operation or business which can make money by getting you
to pay to ‘save the planet’ or ‘feel green’.
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural
essentially predictable processes……..
The slow sea level (volume)
rise - 6 inches per century will continue even as world
surface cools
{notwithstanding changes in ocean floor shape such as
the appearance of trenches and sumps in the Pacific as
the Indian sub-continent pushes up the Himalayas}
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years are
part of natural essentially predictable
processes
The ’22yr’ (Solar-Magnetic) cyclical tendency
for more extreme events will continue for a
few years and then decline (NB It is not clockwork!)
Last cycle: - Hot July 84, V cold Feb 86, Storms Oct 87
The SWT Predicted to within a few days from 11
months ahead the major Autumn storms 07
– N Sea storm surge early Nov,
- Giant sea swell (highest ever recorded west BI) end Nov
Weather in 21st Century - Answers
The weather extremes of recent years have been part of
natural essentially predictable processes……..
Supposed man-made Global Warming /
Climate Change extremes as distinct
from natural – eg solar activity driven –
extremes are fiction and will not recur.
Prediction of tendency for extreme events
and actual events is entirely possible and
depends on many factors of cycles and
processess in the Solar Weather Technique.
How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 2
Signals of note – all observed in spectrum to within uncertainties
Geomagnetic
activity
~ 11yr = Solar cycle
World Temps ~ 22yr = solar period doubled due
to magnetic linkage modulation.
Lunar apsides (perigeeapogee line) advance ~ 8.85yr
Lunar nodes (either direction)
~ 9.3yr
Solar wind – Moon – Planets angular momentum interactions
Nodal period Solar magnetic rotation
days
(synodic) days
Earth-Moon
27.212d
27.2
Pluto-Charon
6.3 – 6.4d
25.5d
Ratio
1.0
4.0
Earth/Moon & Pluto/Charon are both ‘comparable mass’ pairs of bodies. All the
moons of all other planets are relatively much smaller. This special relationship
between the sun spin relative rate & the nodal crossing period of moons with their
planets is not seen anywhere else in the solar system.
How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 3
How can solar particles &
events change weather? - 4
Solar UV & Particle bursts affect
the stratosphere and jet stream. Jet
stream shifts are the main
immediate causes of weather &
climate change.
Many of these changes described by ‘Red
Spikes’ & ‘SWIPS’ (Solar Weather
Impact Periods) are predictable by the
Solar Weather Technique many months
ahead with 85% Success rate for SWT
predicted extreme events (in eg 66 world
extreme predictions in last 12 months)
Proxies drivers and modulators
Beware confusion of cause, effect & association!
Increased solar (magnetic) activity excludes more cosmic rays
(extra-solar high energy) from solar system and Earth. Cosmic rays
convert N14 to C14 so C14 is a reverse proxy for solar activity.
ΔC14 = – Δ Solar activity => 11yr signal
Also note solar Cycle length = 1/ solar activity approx.
Geomagnetic activity = Solar activity <11yr>
X Earth magnetic cross section (depends on slow
changing Earth’s magnetic field) => 11yr signal
Temperature = Particle EFFECT
= Geomag activity X magnetic linkage to lower
atmosphere via poles etc <22yr> => 22yr signal
Solar magnetic cycle (22yr) smoothed temps and geomagnetic
activity move together better than anything else.
World
Temps
follow
the Solar
Magnetic
cycle
Peaks on
average are
2 years after
Odd
Maximum.
The Max for
cycle 23
was in 2001.
Smoothed
(2yr) world
temps show
a peak in
2002/3.
Warm/Strongest Linkage = Odd max (phase16)+2 Cold/Weakest = Even max (phase 5)+2
Piers
Corbyn
Solar charged particles come in essentially 11year cycles but the magnetic connectivity of the Sun-Earth system, which enables the particles to penetrate
the Earth’s atmosphere further, changes from strong to weak over periods of Hale cycle length. This causes the Hale cycle of World temperature.
Strong linkage peaks just after the Odd Max (eg Cycle 23 max 2001) and Weak linkage peaks just after the even Max (cycle 24 Max will be approx 2012)
NOTE. Scaled
Hale Cycles are
all made 22
‘pseudo-years’
long so shorter
cycles are
stretched a little
and longer ones
compressed so
Minima and
Maxima coincide
for stacking
purposes etc.
Piers Corbyn, Weather Action
Geomagnetic Activity, which is a measure of solar particles hitting the Earth’s
magnetic field (which extends 7 Earth radii into space), mainly follows the 11yr sunspot cycle
Heat flow in & out of Earth’s surface
New!
- Assuming effect of CO2 doubling reliable although that is questioned -
Extra Radiation to
surface INFLOW =>
To surface from
Ghe if CO2
doubled =
3.8W/m2
Extra
Photosynthesis
transpiration
<= heat OUTFLOW
Plant evap if CO2 doubled
approx = 3.8W/m2
Sea
evap
Ghe = Greenhouse
effect = H2O (largest
Ghe) + CO2 etc
Long
wave
rad
- taken up and away from
surface
IF there are not enough
plants to do the cooling
the world gets warmer,
Spring gets earlier and
plants grow more and
have a greater cooling
effect.
This feedback ensures
that the two effects
balance over time.
SWT Spectacular success from 11 mths ahead
85% success on world extreme events:
See www.weatheraction.com – Forecast accuracy button
•14/16 Success for Brit & Ire Floods/storms Jun to Dec 07: inc:
• All 11 flood periods in Britain summer 2007, success 10/11 in England/Wales
• The North Sea storm surge – which came on 9th Nov – 2,000 evacuated from Yarmouth,
unprecedented raising of sea defences in Holland
• “Extremely stormy sea conditions & alarming build up of swell” for near end Nov (extended
to1/2Dec) – confirmed by highest ever recorded waves in West Britain/Ire (f/c 11 mths ahead).
• ALL 5 notable seasonal weather types 2007-09 correct while
Met Office forecast the opposite to what occurred in ALL cases.
- For wet summers 2007, 08, 09, icy snowy winter 08/9, & world temp decline 08 & 09.
Weather Action World extreme events forecasts:
(now under SWT25d) March 2008 to June 2009 scored 85% success
on forecasts of: rain/hail/thunder and snow deluges, heatwaves,
floods, tornadoes, typhoon & tropical storm formation (& the
vital ‘end-game’ land hit storm tracks in Gulf Of Mexico)
Forecasts covered events in Britain, Ireland, Europe, USA, Alaska, Canada, Brazil, Atlantic,
Caribbean/Gulf, Pacific, Taiwan, Japan, China, Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, Australia.