Download TITLE HEADER HERE - American Meteorological Society

Climate Services:
The temperature is going up
but so are the opportunities!
John F. Henz, CCM
HDR Engineering, Inc.
303 East 17th Avenue, Suite 700
Denver Colorado 80203
[email protected]
John F. Henz: “roots”
• BS Meteorology, U Wisc
• 4 yrs in Air Weather
Service
• MS Atmospheric Science,
CSU
• Geophysical R&D Corp
GRD Weather Center
CCM #270
• Henz Kelly & Associates
• Henz Meteorological
Services (HMS)
• HDR Engineering, Inc
of Omaha NE
purchased HMS Nov
2000.
• HDR is a top twenty
Architect &
Engineering firm with
over 5,500 owneremployees in 42
states and over 140
offices.
Near $1B in 2006.
• Nat. Tech Advisor,
Hydro-Meteorology
Increased awareness of climate change
creates public and business needs
• Businesses want input for use in
strategic planning.
• Cities/Counties/States are concerned
with aging infra-structure impacts.
• Building design concerned with
“green” fingerprint and sustainability.
• Engineers/architects grappling with
changing design baselines.
The weather enterprise
Private sector
Ideal
Solution
Academic
Government sector
So what should we do?
Reality: Climate services are a
driving force in the market place.
Meteorology-Engineering
need each other
• Many atmospheric science/meteorology departments
co-located with engineering schools and/or
environmental/natural resource departments.
• In school, do “the same problem sets” and in business
solve the same problems = commonalities exist.
• New data sets provide the opportunities for
meteorologists to quantitatively solve problems.
• Credentials count: PE, CCM, CFM, etc.
We need analytical meteorologists!
Opportunities abound
• New data sets and bases: WSR-88D,
surface mesonets, profilers, ACARS,
new satellites.
• Strong public awareness of climate
change, global warming and natural
hazards (2005 hurricane season).
• A myriad of problems to be solved and
more coming onboard everyday.
Climate change has heightened
interest in extreme weather
• Power utilities have to deal with climate change,
related costs and carbon issues.
• Water suppliers concerned with changes in
precipitation, runoff amount and timing and drought
frequency, especially in western half of USA.
• Insurance companies are concerned with
increased risk associated of severe weather.
• Aging infra-structure is at risk from increased flood
and rain threats.
• Coastal areas want to plan for rising ocean levels.
• Dam safety agencies concerned with extreme
precipitation event threats.
“some examples”
A “weather enterprise success”
•
Jan 1,1997 Reno-Sparks NV hit by
devastating flood that was underforecast. NO flood response plan
existed.
•
Damage in $100M’s, airport closed a
week, warehouse district a mess,
fatalities and injuries.
•
In 2003/4 HDR contracted by COE and
Washoe County WR to develop a flood
response plan and develop cooperative response. NWS CNRFC
developed special aids.
•
2003/04 Reno-Sparks NV FRP
developed based on 1997 flood.
•
Dec31/Jan 1 2006 Reno/Sparks hit by
“déjà vu flood”. Order of magnitude
less damage, no fatalities, airport
stayed open!
1997
2006
Climatic Indices – powerful tools
• Multi-variate ENSO Index: Energy transport,
cloudiness, winds, SST in tropical Pacific (MEI,
SOI)
• PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) – Primary NorthSouth difference in sea temperature in Pacific
Ocean is varying on shorter time scales –why?
• NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) – linked to
changes in sea surface temperature conditions and
heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean.
• AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) a
harbinger of multi-year changes
• MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) Sends pulses of
energy into sub-tropical jet stream.
Crucial climate information for
strategic decision-making
PNA
NAO
PDO
MJO
SOI
MEI
AMO
Flathead Reservoir, MT Drought
Management Plan (2002-2007)
• Balance water
needs.
• Accurate
identification of low
flow/flood years.
• Maintain credibility
with public and
agencies.
• Make sure it works!
• Climate change
concerns
Flood
Control
Pool
Spr.
$100M
Recreation
Jun-Sep
Hydro-Power
Winter
Minimum
in-stream
flows
Normal vs. El Nino vs.
La Nina Basin Precipitation
Regime
La Nina =
Wet
Normal
El Nino =
Dry
Driest 10 yrs =
drought
Oct-Dec Inches Oct-Mar Inches
(+/- avg.)
(+/- avg.)
6.82”
12.59”
(+1.49”)
(+2.29”)
5.33”
10.33”
4.85”
(-0.48”)
3.25”
(-2.08”)
8.52”
(-1.81”)
6.21”
(-4.12”)
Flathead Lake Drought Management Plan
Percent of Water Years (1951- 2003) from October to April with Correct DMP Activation Decision
MEI Based DMP Activation
MEI + FPRI Based DMP Activation
FPRI Based DMP Activation
100
90
80
Percent Correct (%)
70
60
50
NWS/NRCS WY Forecast
or Runoff volume
40
30
20
10
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Water Year Month
Feb
Mar
Apr
WSR-88D – a climate tool too!
• Historical WSR-88D reflectivity, base
velocity, QPE’s,, etc used in storm reconstruction for insurance, design and
basin calibration studies.
• Observations used to develop enhanced
spatial and temporal precipitation
distributions for design storm, flood plain
delineation and extreme precipitation event
documentation for dam safety.
The October weather pattern was
“more July” than October.
60-70F
72-80F
• Storms formed
along and
north of the
stationary front
repeatedly
from ~3PM to
3AM.
• “Train-echo”
effect
• Flooding rains
of 4-7” in 6 hrs
Minneapolis, MN flood reconstruction/basin calibration
• Our basin is
located in the
heavy rain track
indicated by the
NWS storm total
rainfall estimate.
• The NWS QPE
values produced a
40-60% underestimate from
observed rainfall
and poor XP-SWM
rainfall-runoff
model output!
WSR-88D “Atmosphere-truthed Z-R”.
GIS-based
• Atmosphere-truthed ZR, i.e. QPF-based Z-R.
• GIS-based radar and
basin data.
• XP-SWM rainfall-runoff
model: ~90%+
correlation.
• ACARS detected LLJ =
enhanced rainfall for 75
min. When input into
the HDR Z-R runoff
correlations improved
10-15 percent.
• Used to define floodplains and evacuation.
October 4/5, 2005 SWWD
WSR-88D Z-based Temporal Rain Distribution
vs. 100-yr SCS Type II used for design
Hourly Graphs of Basin Average Radar Estimated Rainfall Oct. 4th-5th, 2005 Event vs. SCS Curve Type II Curve (6.30" Total 24-hour Event)
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
Est. Rainfall
Pow ersLk
5.00
WilmesLk
4.50
WDraw South
WDraw North
4.00
WDraw Center
3.50
EastRavineSouth
EastRavineNorth
3.00
ColbyLk
2.50
CentralDraw
2.00
BaileyDraw
SCS TYPE II
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00
Tim e
Project has multi-million $ implications
HDR Energy clients
• Concerns with coal-fired power plant
operations.
• Needs for expanded wind power
generation and wind prediction.
• Insights on working within the carbon
exchange system.
• Exploring water needs for ethanol
plant development.
HDR Architecture clients
• Development of “green buildings”
• Community planners are interested in
ways to reduce urban heat islands
and associated energy consumption.
• Community sustainability has been
embraced.
• Water quality and waste recycling are
major issues with only partial
solutions.
Solutions based on climate
data and imaginative
applications
“A goal without a plan is a dream”
What do engineers want?
•
•
•
•
Data and information for problem solution.
Access to basic data and information.
Limited rhetoric; “just the facts, please!”
More quantitative information on climate
impacts on water supply, carbon exchange
opportunities and global to micro-climate
cause-effect relationships..
• More knowledgeable meteorologists and
climatologists within companies to act as
trusted problem solvers for clients.
The “weather enterprise solution”
Private sector: client
problem interface
Providing
solutions to
climate change
Academic sector:
Training and
research
Government sector:
data and information
Bottom line:
What a wonderful time to be a
meteorologist!
• Opportunities are real – climate change
and real-world use of new data sets.
• The next ten years should be another
“golden age” for meteorology!
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
Engineering,
Consulting and
Architectural Firm
HDR Engineering, Inc.
303 East 17th St, Suite 700
Denver, Colorado 80203
1.303.764.1520
www.hdrinc.com
[email protected]
www.hdrweather.com
– 5,500+ employees
– Architectural: hospitals,
federal, others
– Transportation: bridges,
roads, rail
– Water resources
– Meteorology
– Energy
– Community Planning &
Urban Design
– Construction Services
– Environmental