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UNEP/OzL.Pro.WG.1/36/CRP.2 United Nations Environment Programme 22 July 2015 Original: English Open-ended Working Group of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Thirty-sixth meeting Paris, 20–24 July 2015 Agenda item 11 Potential areas of focus for the assessment panels’ 2018 quadrennial reports Draft Decision XXVII/[…]: Potential areas of focus for the 2018 quadrennial reports of the Scientific Assessment Panel, the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel and the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel Submission by the European Union and Switzerland The Twenty-seventh Meeting of the Parties decides: 1. To note with appreciation the excellent and highly useful work conducted by the Scientific Assessment Panel, the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel and the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel in preparing their 2014 assessment reports, including the 2015 synthesis report; 2. To request the three assessment panels to update their 2014 reports in 2018 and submit them to the Secretariat by 31 December 2018 for consideration by the Open-ended Working Group and by the Thirty-first Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in 2019, noting that the panels should exchange information during the process of developing their respective reports in order to provide consistent information to the parties; 3. To encourage the assessment panels to more closely involve relevant scientists from Article 5 countries, as well as achieve gender and geographic balance [in line with decision [XXIV/8 para 2.1.1]] in the work of producing the updates; 4. To request the assessment panels to keep the parties to the Montreal Protocol informed of any important new developments; 5. To request the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, in drafting its 2018 report, to consider the most recent scientific information regarding the effects on human health and the environment of changes in the ozone layer and in ultraviolet radiation, including: (a) The effects of ultraviolet radiation reaching the biosphere and how such effects relate to physical, biological and environmental processes; (b) K1502290 220715 The effects of ultraviolet radiation on: (i) Human health, including cancers, eye damage and infectious and other diseases, and the beneficial effects of ultraviolet radiation; (ii) The biodiversity and functioning of ecosystems, including the delivery of ecosystem services, such as food production; (iii) Materials, including materials used in construction; (c) The risks to human health and the environment posed by substances that affect the ozone layer, their alternatives and their respective degradation products; 6. matters: To request the Scientific Assessment Panel to include in its 2018 report, among other (a) An assessment of the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution, including in respect of atmospheric changes from, for example, sudden stratospheric warming or accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation; (b) An evaluation of the Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic winter/spring ozone depletion and the predicted changes in these phenomena, with particular focus on temperatures in the polar stratosphere; (c) An evaluation of trends in the concentration in the atmosphere of ozone-depleting substances and alternatives to ozone-depleting substances and their consistency with reported production and consumption, together with available emission data relating to such substances and the likely implications for the state of the ozone layer and the climate; (d) An assessment of the interaction between changes in the ozone layer and climate change; including: (i) The effect of polar ozone depletion on tropospheric climate; (ii) The effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling; (e) A description and an interpretation of observed ozone changes and ultraviolet radiation, together with future projections and scenarios for those variables, taking into account, among other things, the expected impacts of climate change, including of clouds, aerosols and sun flux; (f) An assessment of the effects of ozone-depleting substances, very-short-lived substances and non-controlled substances with ozone depletion potential, including potential replacements for such substances, and respective degradation products, on the ozone layer and on other components of the Earth’s environment, including a consolidated list of such substances, their ozone-depletion potential, their global-warming potential and their relative abundance in the atmosphere, noting that assessments should use consistent units and consistent terminology throughout for better comparability; (g) Estimates of the levels of ozone layer depletion related to several residual levels of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances and an indication of the level of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances below which the depletion of the ozone layer could be considered as insignificant; (h) The identification and reporting, as appropriate, on any other threats to the ozone layer, including an assessment of the effect of recent volcanic activities and of possible geo-engineering; 7. To request Technology and Economic Assessment Panel, in its 2018 report, to consider the following topics, among others: (a) The impact of the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances on sustainable development; (b) Technical progress in the production and consumption sectors in the transition to alternatives and practices that eliminate or minimize emissions to the atmosphere of ozone-depleting substances; (c) The resulting impacts on the environment, including climate-relevant emissions; (d) Technically and economically feasible choices for the reduction and elimination of ozone-depleting substances in all relevant sectors, including through the use of alternatives, taking into account their performance and their impact on the environment, including on climate, and technically and economically feasible alternatives to ozone-depleting substances in consumption sectors, taking into account their overall performance; 2 UNEP/OzL.Pro.WG.1/36/CRP.2 (e) The status of banks containing ozone-depleting substances and relevant alternative substances, including those maintained for essential and critical uses, and the options available for handling them; (f) Accounting for the production and consumption in various applications and relevant sources of ozone-depleting substances, including hydrofluorocarbons. 3